Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

Afif

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Kartal1

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This is definitely not gonna make the wrongs that Hamas members did (along with others) on 7th October right. But still weird and hard to wrap my head around. Based on previous testimonies and this one, For whatever reason, PR or something else, Hamas seems to be treating the hostages well so far. @Bogeyman @Kartal1 @Gary This one sounds almost too good to be true.
Hostages must be in good condition so they are valuable. I can assure you that at this state of the conflict IDF is a bigger threat to these hostages than Hamas.
 

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I consider this another success (unintended of course) by Hamas's excellent 7th October attack. More and more people are embracing Islam. 😂 😂 😂


And you know it is indeed a double success when you have Islamophobes like Ayaan Hirsi Ali getting bothered that more and more women embraced Islam as an indirect result of Hamas's attack.


This reminds me of the Tet Offensive by the Viet Cong during the Vietnam War. Where they (Viet Cong) tactically lost the war but defeated the South where it matters, the U.S. Congress LOL.


1920px-The_Vietnam_War_and_Public_Opinion.png



Tet offensive is the real deal in Viet Nam. Even though the kill: killed ratio is heavily in favor of the U.S than the VC.

and, In a few years time >>

5B54K5B3AFAWDD5SJZUQWMGTZ4.jpg

fall-of-saigon-gettyimages-514874806.jpg


This attack by Hamas will likely accelerate the demographic shift in the West where more and more people are already embracing Islam (even with all the Jewish-funded vilification towards it in the media etc) before the Oct 7th attack.

That means more and more bleak prospects for the state of israel as they could not cling longer as intended to unvetted U.S support in the long run, already the Muslims in the West are putting politicians in tough positions with their support of Israel.

What we need now is more and more converts to Islam in the West, and we want them the kind of religious Muslims, not secular ones. Religious Muslims fought for the interests of Islam and Muslims more than the seculars. Also, religious Muslims reproduce more as they put an emphasis on family values that's an added bonus I would like to see in the long run.

Good time ahead indeed.
 

Bogeyman 

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Israeli tech firms startled by post-war Chinese paperwork load​



Israeli high-tech factories have been having difficulties importing components from China since the start of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip on October 7, Israeli news website Ynet reported on Sunday.

The website said Israeli electronics and high-tech factories in occupied Palestine have had trouble importing Chinese-made dual-purpose equipment, due to forms and paperwork.

Dual-purpose equipment includes any product that can be used for both civilian or military use, a term Israeli authorities are extremely familiar with. In fact, Israeli authorities have included thousands of products in their sanctioned dual-purpose products, which are not allowed to enter the Gaza Strip, such as concrete.

Ironically, Israeli importers are complaining about the fact that they have to fill out mandatory forms when purchasing Chinese products. Inaccurately filled paperwork has caused delays in shipments, according to Ynet.

This has led Israeli importers to raise official complaints to the Israeli Foreign Ministry and Economy Ministry.

Interestingly, no new forms or paperwork have been introduced by Chinese authorities or companies, however, concerned bodies are simply enforcing regulations that were previously ignored.

"In recent weeks, companies in the hi-tech sector have complained about delays in shipments from China of dual-use components. In all the checks we conducted with official bodies, it appears that there is no change in regulations, but rather enforcement that was not practiced in the past. Such technical requests create bureaucratic hurdles," a government official told Ynet.
 

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I am surprised after all this footage of Israeli abuses and Hamas war footage, at the lack of support from the Muslim world.

Regarding the footage, it will be used in the future to radicalise, so Israel likely knows it has to control Gaza by proxy or it will face another war.
 

Afif

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@Kartal1 Would it be right to say Hamas's overall strategy is to prioritise long term endurance over short term intensity? It is better to live to fight another day than taking big tactical risk. Probably that is why we didn’t see high intensity battles in early days.
 

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@Kartal1 Would it be right to say Hamas's overall strategy is to prioritise long term endurance over short term intensity? It is better to live to fight another day than taking big tactical risk. Probably that is why we didn’t see high intensity battles in early days.
The resources they have are limited. And no one will provide them with logistical support. Therefore, they have to use their experienced human resources and ammunition stocks carefully. Prolonging the conflict for as long as possible will also bring psychological destruction to Israel. Because they went there to commit full-fledged genocide and completely wipe Gaza off the map. But now they cannot move forward. The price they pay is too high. They are completely paralyzed.
 

Kartal1

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@Kartal1 Would it be right to say Hamas's overall strategy is to prioritise long term endurance over short term intensity? It is better to live to fight another day than taking big tactical risk. Probably that is why we didn’t see high intensity battles in early days.
There is a big intensity difference between the first time we talked about it and now. We were speculating that they need to let IDF deeper and choke them. I expected them to do it earlier at the time, but now I think they are doing exactly the same thing just not the same in terms of the timing I put for my analysis. The intensity is high, but the operations are focused on hit and run instead of area control. Due to the tunnel network they have they can apply this tactic very well and not lose valuable ammo in the process, but instead work for accurate shots. We also started to see IEDs (in this regard I think Hamas has a lot to learn from other paramilitary forces). They lure IDF personnel in buildings and throw at them rockets to maximize damage, use snipers etc. They are keeping away from direct confrontations due to the bigger firepower of IDF infantry and the fire support the can get in terms of their armor, air forces and artillery. This is very important in order to prevent unnecessary casualties.

The tunnel network is like the blood supply system for Hamas. For example the tunnels of PKK in the north of Iraq can keep the terrorists active for more than 6 months without a resupply, depending on the intensity. I expect Hamas tunnel network to be bigger and supplies of existential importance like food, water, fuel, ammunition and medicine to be for even longer, but it all depends on intensity. In the long term if smuggling channels are not working good eventually Hamas fighters will run out of supplies and will have no other option than to surrender. This is a game of time. If IDF manages to minimize casualties and ensure military equipment flowing long enough we may see a fast decline in intensity where Israeli forces will start to work on the tunnel network, but we are talking about time far in the future, 6 months or even more from this day. This is the most difficult part of the "exercise". As many here know I am following closely the Turkish operations in the north of Iraq which involve warfare for kilometers long multi-floor tunnel networks reinforced with concrete, low and tight enough at places so a man can not walk on his feet, with a labyrinth structure, reinforced doors, check points, pressure rooms and IED traps. Judging by the TSK experience with the tunnel networks and the way PKK make them I can say that it is almost impossible to clean that kind of tunnel without using weapons prohibited by international law. I am waiting to see at least the beginning (such operations can last for months) to see what kind of methodology will Israel use to clean them or at least try to clean them. One thing is for sure, no phase of this operation will be easy, but I think time is on Israel's side if they manage to adapt better and keep the casualties among personnel low.
 

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@Kartal1 Would it be right to say Hamas's overall strategy is to prioritise long term endurance over short term intensity? It is better to live to fight another day than taking big tactical risk. Probably that is why we didn’t see high intensity battles in early days.

The way i see it . Hamas take a page of vietnams . Lure in to give a false sense of security and make a close quarter ambushes which negate the heavy support of IDF

The resources they have are limited. And no one will provide them with logistical support. Therefore, they have to use their experienced human resources and ammunition stocks carefully. Prolonging the conflict for as long as possible will also bring psychological destruction to Israel. Because they went there to commit full-fledged genocide and completely wipe Gaza off the map. But now they cannot move forward. The price they pay is too high. They are completely paralyzed.

It's a race again time .. who will blink first ..

There has been no large scale breakthrough from israel in weeks.

As much i wished the IDF were dumb . Even they have known they were overcommitted and stretched too thin right now ...
Hence the consolidation efforts ..
Things are still possible to go both ways though ..
 

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There is a big intensity difference between the first time we talked about it and now. We were speculating that they need to let IDF deeper and choke them. I expected them to do it earlier at the time, but now I think they are doing exactly the same thing just not the same in terms of the timing I put for my analysis. The intensity is high, but the operations are focused on hit and run instead of area control. Due to the tunnel network they have they can apply this tactic very well and not lose valuable ammo in the process, but instead work for accurate shots. We also started to see IEDs (in this regard I think Hamas has a lot to learn from other paramilitary forces). They lure IDF personnel in buildings and throw at them rockets to maximize damage, use snipers etc. They are keeping away from direct confrontations due to the bigger firepower of IDF infantry and the fire support the can get in terms of their armor, air forces and artillery. This is very important in order to prevent unnecessary casualties.

The tunnel network is like the blood supply system for Hamas. For example the tunnels of PKK in the north of Iraq can keep the terrorists active for more than 6 months without a resupply, depending on the intensity. I expect Hamas tunnel network to be bigger and supplies of existential importance like food, water, fuel, ammunition and medicine to be for even longer, but it all depends on intensity. In the long term if smuggling channels are not working good eventually Hamas fighters will run out of supplies and will have no other option than to surrender. This is a game of time. If IDF manages to minimize casualties and ensure military equipment flowing long enough we may see a fast decline in intensity where Israeli forces will start to work on the tunnel network, but we are talking about time far in the future, 6 months or even more from this day. This is the most difficult part of the "exercise". As many here know I am following closely the Turkish operations in the north of Iraq which involve warfare for kilometers long multi-floor tunnel networks reinforced with concrete, low and tight enough at places so a man can not walk on his feet, with a labyrinth structure, reinforced doors, check points, pressure rooms and IED traps. Judging by the TSK experience with the tunnel networks and the way PKK make them I can say that it is almost impossible to clean that kind of tunnel without using weapons prohibited by international law. I am waiting to see at least the beginning (such operations can last for months) to see what kind of methodology will Israel use to clean them or at least try to clean them. One thing is for sure, no phase of this operation will be easy, but I think time is on Israel's side if they manage to adapt better and keep the casualties among personnel low.

Palestinians actually looks to be fighting this conflict intelligently, which for Arab fighters is super unusual. Arabs usually cluster together in big numbers, fire blindly into the air holding the trigger, while screaming god is great. Paying no real attention to the dynamically shifting battlefield around then. Its creates some real ridiculous situations.

The only way I personally saw them achieving anything is via "hit and run" tactics. And from all the videos I've seen that's what they seem to be doing. Fire an RPG then run to a different position. Take Israelis out then disappear into the rubble, tunnel network only to resurface somewhere else.

So from the looks of it Hamas are hoping to keep the Isreali tied down for long enough that the Isrealis eventually give up and pull out. However the Isrealis are very craftily and cleverly destroying all buildings and removing the debris in the regions they are sitting in. This is to completely depopulate the area and remove any ability for a fighter to hide in.

If this was a war concerning Turkey where everyday you would be under constant pressure to "ceasefire" and pull out, i think we would lose it. The Isreals have the advantage that the entire western world is on board with them slaughtering/wiping out Muslims and stealing their lands. So they will get as many years as they need. Its going to come down to whether palestinians can inflict enough casualties to make the Isrealis step back. While the Russians don't seem to give two shits as to how many die in war, Isreal is quite the opposite, every death has an effect on them.
 

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