Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

Driving through the streets of Mariupol. The city is surprisingly alive with active re-construction ongoing, this is not what a Potemkin village looks like

 

[Gary]

Just how accurate Russian glide bomb has become?

Judge for yourself

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764201153691041920

 

[Fuzuli NL]

I would be wasting my breath because those numbers will come from a Russian source(lost armour i think only tracks destroyed ukrainian equipment) and the entire forum at this point is Russia=bad, Ukraine=good. But what the Ukrainians have statistically claimed is so outlandish that their only supporting argument is that they and the Russians have the capabilities of being necromancers that bring back equipment and soldiers back to life.

I just wanted to see whether your numbers are plausible.
I don't know whether Oryx is still updating their counts but last time I checked Russian tank losses were around 2700+ (only tanks) with photographic evidence.
My argument is that although 5000 tanks according to Ukrainian sources seem unrealistic, at least more than half of that number is evidently accurate and that still doesn't save face for the Russians. It's still an embarrassingly high number of losses for a mighty army, don't you agree?

Also, not the entire forum thinks Russia=bad, Ukraine=good. Many of us know the corruption that has been going on in Ukraine long before the invasion, we know that Mr Zelensky is full of it too. We know Mr Putin is right at some points and wrong at some, like any other politician.

None of that's above justifies the war crimes though. Most of us are disgusted with that especially against civilian population whether they have Nazism in their blood or not, is not a reason for any of that.

Another thing you've pointed out is that Ukraine supports Israel against the oppressed Palestinians and their war crimes.
My take on this is that is the path Mr Zelensky had chosen to take, in order not to lose US and western support because many of us are also aware of their hypocrisy.

I have Russian friends who are very dear to me and I also have some Ukrainian acquaintances who are very nice people. What I'm trying to say is that you shouldn't assume that everybody here sees the conflict as black or white.

Everybody here also knows about Russian/Wagner atrocities in Syria, Libya and the bombardment and annihilation of Chechen uprising in the 90s.

Ukraine is not a very strong country riddled with many problems long before the war, Russia on the other hand has a lot of innocent blood on their hands.

I commend you standing up for your country against the flow, but you should be able to say "that's wrong" or "I don't approve" when you see atrocities being committed.

 

[Iskander]

It's not about being humane. It's about being self-interested, like everyone on the planet and warring with those that take issue with our values. You reference Christianity, but Islam is just as radical. The Quran literally calls for the death / jailing of non-believers (with a couple caveats). Societies have no business being run by antiquitated religious values, established in archaic times. There is no need for religious zealots, of any religion, to force their people into poverty and suffering, in an attempt to remain separated from the rest of the globalized world.

We live in a world that is dominated by alliances. Those alliances have foundational principles. Nations that adhere to and abide by those principles are welcomed into the alliances that they best align with.

The West is not the "bad guy" in this story. But we're not the "good guy" either. We're simply one of the alliances, one of the actors, through a variety of networks, in the world.

It seems that already on my first day here I called the leaders of some European countries idiots. But not with the aim of insulting them, but only to state a fact. For example, Germany. Over the past 20 years, Russia has twice(!) officially(!) announced the rearmament of its army. This was done completely openly. (By the way, we did the same thing, and I watched these processes with great interest).
Who threatened Russia then? Not a single country! In general, no country, then or now, can threaten Russia, which has thousands of nuclear warheads. “So why did Putin need the State Rearmament Program?”
It was this question that needed to be answered. Not today, but 20 years ago. If Germany did not notice all this, then what should we call its leaders? Of course, ideots. This is not an insult. It is so indeed. In Russia they openly laughed at German politicians.
People usually laugh at idiots.
Meanwhile, in Germany, perhaps the best society, an almost ideal state, has been created.

Remember Chancellor Merkel’s bewilderment about Putin? “Putin lives in a different reality.” She wasn't wrong. But here’s the question: What kind of reality did Merkel herself live in? What were you doing? Of course, she was busy with something, a very serious matter - reducing the army and military production in Germany!!! Merkel is not the only one; there are thousands of such populists and, of course, excellent politicians(!) in Europe. All of Europe (except Poland) has been reducing its armies for 30 years and
weapons. And in the neighboring country - where the reality is different - they rearmed.

You are from Britain. Boris Johnson was perhaps the only politician in Europe who could be called adequate. But he was kicked out. The reason is refusal to wear a mask, violation of public order. This is more important than the threat of war!

Erdogan said with annoyance 10 years ago: “Europe has no strategic vision”
But Erdogan, according to smart Europeans, is an authoritarian leader. And Europeans need a politicians... without authority.

If European civilization ever dies, it will most likely be from idiocy politicians, but not from climate change

 

[Gary]

I remember NAFO folks begging for the U.S to send DPICM cluster munitions to solve the stalled Ukrainian counter offensive.

Seems like Russia now comes with aerial, more accurate DPICM of its own. Larger and more deadly.

I expect more and more AFU lines to crumble.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764055545764348203

 

[UkroTurk]

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan:

"We think it is time for a ceasefire in Ukraine. A ceasefire does not mean recognition of the occupation. Both sides now seem to have reached the limits of the results they can achieve through war. We believe that it is time to separate the issues of recognition of the occupation and sovereignty from the ceasefire issue."

 

[MaciekRS]

Ceasefire would only gave time to russia to regroup, rebuild missing tanks, missiles, planes and attack next year.

 

[UkroTurk]

Ceasefire would only gave time to russia to regroup, rebuild missing tanks, missiles, planes and attack next year.

Ceasefire must be with security agreement from third countries. In case of violation 3rd countries must have rights to involve in .

 

[mehmed beg]

Wh

It seems that already on my first day here I called the leaders of some European countries idiots. But not with the aim of insulting them, but only to state a fact. For example, Germany. Over the past 20 years, Russia has twice(!) officially(!) announced the rearmament of its army. This was done completely openly. (By the way, we did the same thing, and I watched these processes with great interest).
Who threatened Russia then? Not a single country! In general, no country, then or now, can threaten Russia, which has thousands of nuclear warheads. “So why did Putin need the State Rearmament Program?”
It was this question that needed to be answered. Not today, but 20 years ago. If Germany did not notice all this, then what should we call its leaders? Of course, ideots. This is not an insult. It is so indeed. In Russia they openly laughed at German politicians.
People usually laugh at idiots.
Meanwhile, in Germany, perhaps the best society, an almost ideal state, has been created.

Remember Chancellor Merkel’s bewilderment about Putin? “Putin lives in a different reality.” She wasn't wrong. But here’s the question: What kind of reality did Merkel herself live in? What were you doing? Of course, she was busy with something, a very serious matter - reducing the army and military production in Germany!!! Merkel is not the only one; there are thousands of such populists and, of course, excellent politicians(!) in Europe. All of Europe (except Poland) has been reducing its armies for 30 years and
weapons. And in the neighboring country - where the reality is different - they rearmed.

You are from Britain. Boris Johnson was perhaps the only politician in Europe who could be called adequate. But he was kicked out. The reason is refusal to wear a mask, violation of public order. This is more important than the threat of war!

Erdogan said with annoyance 10 years ago: “Europe has no strategic vision”
But Erdogan, according to smart Europeans, is an authoritarian leader. And Europeans need a politicians... without authority.

If European civilization ever dies, it will most likely be from idiocy politicians, but not from climate change

Why any discussion with him? " It is not about being Humane" so his interest is the only value and so it should be for everyone??? And religion is the ancient concept, so what we understand here is that he thinks that he has the right to impose his self interest as our values and it is logical and moral. The stronger eats the weaker and it is really dialectical. I always thought that " The Western Etiquette is for the rule of law not jungle "
I forgive him though, this boy writes more than he thinks , it is the sign of " self interest values " , of course, without any exceptions those people will crush. There is no defying the gravity, what goes up always go down.

 

[UkroTurk]

Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed one Su-34

www.understandingwar.org

Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea apparently paused as of mid-February 2024

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly rejected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent offer to host a negotiation platform for Russia and Ukraine.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used the Antalya Diplomatic Forum to promote Kremlin narratives about Moldova, likely to set conditions for potential Kremlin hybrid operations that aim to destabilize Moldova and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union

 

[Slayer]

no, not that simple.


So you admit they're Nazis? Very nice, I like honest people

PS: I never said all of Ukraine are Nazis though, just the Azov

So you admit to kidnapping children? Glad that you are honest.

 

[blackjack]

last time I checked Russian tank losses were around 2700+ (only tanks) with photographic evidence.

where exactly is this photographc evidence? is it twitter? if it is twitter than they post like 1 destroyed vehicle every few days and somehave been caught in most cases to be images from Russia destroying Ukraine's soviet tanks. that would not statistically cover 2700 tanks

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan:

"We think it is time for a ceasefire in Ukraine. A ceasefire does not mean recognition of the occupation. Both sides now seem to have reached the limits of the results they can achieve through war. We believe that it is time to separate the issues of recognition of the occupation and sovereignty from the ceasefire issue."

so basically, the large gains Russia has recently done has made Macron and Llyod Austin talk about war with Russia and now Turkey is asking both for a ceasefire which makes a lot of sense since Russia is currently on a huge push that will break the remaining defensive lines that exist and once they break out of the urban area of Donetsk they can proceed with their forces during the Spring to achieve massive landgrab from Ukraine.

Ukraine currently claims this

Первый Харьковский

Источник: Оператор 13 ВВС НАТО зашли на территорию Украины для отработки ударов по Крыму На фоне опубликованной беседы немецких генералов об атаках на Крымский мост сегодня в воздушное пространство Украины с территории Румынии был совершен пролет трех самолетов НАТО. Два F 16 и один F 35...

t.me

Source: Operator 13

The NATO Air Force entered the territory of Ukraine to practice strikes on Crimea

"Against the background of a published conversation between German generals about the attacks on the Crimean Bridge, three NATO aircraft flew into Ukrainian airspace from Romania today.

Two F 16s and one F 35. The planes simulated missile strikes from the territory of the Mykolaiv region in the Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Among other things, Patriot air defense systems and 3 mobile radars in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions actively accompanied these three aircraft.

In addition to practicing strikes on the Crimea, the F 35 aircraft actively tried to track the location of Russian radars and radar on the front line.

The entire operation lasted about 32 minutes, after which all the planes left Ukrainian airspace.

We have already written that American fighters will be based in Romania. The peculiarity of the F-16 is their "capriciousness")) The runway needs to be perfectly smooth. There are no such people in Ukraine.

The West is escalating the conflict, which will inevitably spread beyond the borders of Ukraine. But not with tank battles, but with missile strikes on NATO infrastructure."

If Russia does not stop this trend of NATO escalation of the conflict, a major war is inevitable. Force can only be broken by force, not by impotent threats, no matter how terrible they are. Nuclear test explosions, strikes on NATO military installations involved in this war, can stop the escalation of the conflict on the part of NATO. Sergey Lavrov will not stop this.

I only see someone using google maps while drawing dots on them but no visual evidence of radar data for us to see in order to believe. If the Ukrainian making these claims has that NATO intelligence data provided than it should also be easy to provide SAR data from the aircrafts on those SAM locations.

 

[blackjack]

I guess it is getting bad if we keep hearing destruction about these tanks more and more.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764297823594438717

 

[FiReFTW]

These abrams tanks are falling like flies, the tank is an important vehicle even in the modern battlefield, but with these drones nowadays its extremely vulnerable to destruction, I wonder what things they will do in the future to make it more survivable in the modern battlefield.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

where exactly is this photographc evidence? is it twitter? if it is twitter than they post like 1 destroyed vehicle every few days and somehave been caught in most cases to be images from Russia destroying Ukraine's soviet tanks. that would not statistically cover 2700 tanks

It's on the site. Feel free to debunk it to support your claims.
So, how many tanks would still be plausible in your opinion?

 

[almogaver]

These abrams tanks are falling like flies, the tank is an important vehicle even in the modern battlefield, but with these drones nowadays its extremely vulnerable to destruction, I wonder what things they will do in the future to make it more survivable in the modern battlefield.

1 Abrams damaged = "falling like flies"

 

[UkroTurk]

❗️Death awaits Ukraine if Congress does not pass an aid package, ex-head of the US Armed Forces, General Milley.

In his blog on the FT, the general assures that Russia will soon have a devastating strategic advantage on the battlefield. And then even Kyiv will fall.

Milley urges Republicans to immediately unblock military aid or world security will end.

TRUHA⚡️Ukraine

 

[Gary]

2x Abrams and 1x Abrams derived engineering vehicle taken out in the last week

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764379840633839797

 

[Gary]

Just wanted to remind people that Ukraine will eventually miss the proposal our defense minister floated last year.

Prabowo's Ukraine proposal - Editorial - The Jakarta Post

While Prabowo’s proposal will not change the view of Indonesia, which has supported UN resolutions condemning the invasion of Ukraine, his statement has attracted international attention because he will seek the presidency in 2024, his third attempt to win the position.

www.thejakartapost.com

Now even if the Ukrainians wants a ceasefire, I don't think Russia will agree.

Ukraine will likely not mobilize more men, their soldiers are tired and demoralized, the aid are drying up. There's simply no incentive for Russia to ceasefire when they are the ones advancing.

 

[blackjack]

It's on the site. Feel free to debunk it to support your claims.
So, how many tanks would still be plausible in your opinion?

They were muddling Ukrainian losses with Russian losses and instantly declared they were done documenting when Ukraine started using Western gear that could be easily identified as Ukrainian. The issue with their claims is that not every loss is a catastrophic destruction of the vehicle and many of these tanks were taken back, serviced and thrown back onto the line. Oryx uses some of the most 144p and blurry photos on EARTH as irrefutable proof of a total loss.In actuality not every hit is a kill and not every tank sitting on the side of a road is a loss. He and his also helpers double counted. NATO countries are scraping the barrel for all Soviet/Russian tanks and armored vehicles to get sent to the Ukraine, so that every loss on the side of the Ukrainians can simply be classified as Russian casualties.

https://theins.ru/news/257147 They have also claimed 40% of Russias tanks from february 2022-november 2022 which means Russia should be out of tanks right now instead of pushing towards one of the last lines of Ukraines defense.

What Ukraine had in tank numbers seems about right with the start of the war.

So question is why did oryx state 40% were lost? if 40% of Russia's tanks were lost this means they lost over 5000 than their early estimates that Russia only has 3000 tanks in the start of the war. 2500 + tanks was the initial start of what Ukraine had.

Россия потеряла на Украине 54 танка, заявил Путин

Россия потеряла на Украине 54 танка, часть из них подлежит восстановлению и ремонту, заявил президент России Владимир Путин. РИА Новости, 13.06.2023

ria.ru

statistically speaking during start of war the number estimates are Russia loses 1 tank for every 3 Ukrainian tanks destroyed. https://visitukraine.today/blog/3236/how-many-weapons-have-nato-and-eu-countries-transferred-to-ukraine-and-are-there-any-left-in-stock#:~:text=▶︎ 15,000 tanks (the United,5.2% of the available tanks.
813 additional tanks from the rest of world were given to ukraine so Russia lost 1/3rd of 3,400 since it seems that the last tanks given to Ukraine were Abrams and those might run out soon. I am assuming 1/3rd of 3000 or 1000+ Russian tank losses due to the assumption if Abrams are getting destroyed that Ukraine is around its last legs.

So now we patiently wait if Ukraine can receive 500+ tanks or more from the west and enough manpower to launch another wave if Ukraine wants to be on the offensive again. But I think it has reached the point from the last offensive that was supposed to lead Ukraine to Crimea that Ukraine will barely push through again and Russia will just jump back and regaining shit. The average age limit for Ukraine is like 40 years old and the next offensive from Ukraine if it fails will bump it up to 50 years old. Look what their manpower will be now.

They are walking into a lion's den.