Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

But most Indians still love Russia. It doesn’t matter that Russia treats them like that. They just love Russia and hate the West.

Sad situation really.

 

[Spitfire9]

Starved of US weapons for months, Ukraine has been losing. What would any rational person expect to happen?

What would any rational person expect to happen as US weapons supply is resumed?

 

[Gary]

What would any rational person expect to happen as US weapons supply is resumed?

Capture moskow

 

[Spitfire9]

Capture moskow

No, in this asymmetric conflict Russia has the intention of capturing Ukraine's capital while Ukraine has no desire to capture Russia's capital.

When US weapons arrive i think the course of the war will be different (until/unless the US cuts munitions supplies again).

F-16's and possibly more Storm Shadows from Europe will not help Russia's cause either.

 

[blackjack]

Про затвердження Змін до Положення про військово-лікарську експертизу в Збройних Силах України

Наказ; Міноборони України від 27.04.2024 № 262

zakon.rada.gov.ua

Some days ago Ukrainian parliament broadened the acceptable standards for recruitment in pretty eyebrow raising ways:

Basically the following are suitable for miliary service:

• Men with mild mental symptoms and mental retardation
• Tuberculosis. Clinically cured.
• HIV is an exception only for those whose virus progresses.
• Cancer in remission means a person is fully fit. Those that are inoperable and have metastases are not suitable.
• Pregnant and postpartum women are considered fit for service if the pregnancy and postpartum period passed without complications.

 

[Spitfire9]

I think that Ukraine is also lowering conscription age from 27 to 25. I wonder how many 25/26 year old men there are in Ukraine.

 

[Relic]

I think that Ukraine is also lowering conscription age from 27 to 25. I wonder how many 25/26 year old men there are in Ukraine.

I believe their stated goal is to conscript approximately 200,000 additional soldiers to replaces losses. However, they are cracking down on draft dodgers from other age groups, as well as introducing women (on a volunteer basis) that want to serve in support roles such as logistics specialists, drone operators, cooks, air defense operators and technicians.

I'm not exactly sure how many military aged men there are in Ukraine between the ages of 25-27, but if I had to guess, I'd suspect that Ukraine will conscript 100,000'ish soldiers using that policy change and the remainder will come from the 28-60 age group, with several tens of thousands of women being added in support roles.

 

[Gary]

At best Ukraine could mobilize 100K men and women in arms. Numbers count but the most important thing is psychological. Most of them are demotivated men that was snatched from the streets.

IMO Ukraine could sustain another two or three mobilization before their morale collapses and the nation lost its will to fight.

War will likely drag on for another 5 years.

 

[Gary]

It's also high time for Putin's puppet state, Belarus to start military exercises on the North, that will tie the Ukrainian army unit into defending those border instead of committing infantry for the Donbass front. Russia could also mobilize their ally, Hungary and Slovakia to again drag any possible help to Ukraine as long as possible, Orban is a loyal men to Putin and not utilizing him is a mistake.

Russia has a year to grab as much land as possible before they must regroup, re equip and rotate new troops to defend newly captured areas.

Ukraine's going to waste those remaining military able cohort anyway in another rushed offensive altogether with a lot of donated equipment. Once they're once again spent. Another new Russian offensive will be even easier in each cycle.

Do this on a loop

 

[Gary]

Russian land grabber building free house for natives

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1787122576000516217

 

[Gary]

Russian land grabber raise their flag on top of destroyed natives hut.

Keramik

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1786860840848658468

 

[Relic]

Ukraine's most pressing needs are artillery shells and air defense systems and both Europe and USA are actively working to solve those problems in the short, intermediate and long terms. Simultaneously, Ukraine is working on its personnel problem through additional conscription.

What's not being talked about enough, however, is the pending shortage of artillery and armored vehicles that Ukraine will need to resupply their brigades, as troop training again ramps. Like Russia, Ukraine is facing significant attrition among its armored fleet and only the West can supply them with what they need, as Soviet stockpiles dwindle in Ukraine and around Europe.

The following, is what I think Ukraine needs to receive in 2024 to blunt the Russian advance and re-equip their brigades... Note that all of this is in addition to what they already have.

Air Defense
1x Patriot PAC 2 Battery (committed)
2x Patriot Battery
1x SAMP/T Battery (committed)
5x NASAMS Battery (committed)
5x IRIS-T SLM (committed)
4x Skynex Systems (2x committed)
20x FrankenSAM (unknown committed)

Aircraft
24x F-16s (committed)

Main Battle Tanks
200× Leopard 1A5 (135× commited)
60x Leopard 2A4 (33x commited)
36x M1A1 Abrams
60x PT-91 Twardy
75x T-72 (25x committed)
100x T-64 (domestic)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
200x Bradley M2-ODS (20x commited)
200x KTO Rosomak (committed)
100x Marder 1A3 (40x commited)
100x BMP-2 (80x committed)
100x BMP-1 Greece (unknown committed)
50x CV9035/40 (35x committed)

Armored Personnel Carriers / MRAPS
100x Stryker
100x M113
250x M117 (commited)
250x VAB (committed)
100x Kirpi
50x Bushmaster
50x LAV 6.0 ASCV (committed)

Artillery
100x M109 howitzers
72x CAESAR howitzers (committed)
100x M198 howitzers
40x Bohdana howitzers (domestic)
18x Panzerhaubitze 2000 (committed)
16x Zuzana 2 howitzers (committed)
24x Firtina howitzers (12x rumored)
24x RAK Mortars (committed)

Specific Munitions
1,500,000x 155mm shells (committed)
500,000x 105mm shells USA (unknown committed)
200,000x 152mm shells (unknown committed)
250,000x 122mm shells (committed)
200,000x 120mm mortar rounds
200,000x 60mm mortar rounds
75,000x 81mm mortar rounds
200x PAC 3 Patriot missiles (unknown committed)
200x PAC 2 Patriot missiles (unknown committed)
500x AIM-9 missiles (unknown committed)
300x AIM-120 AMRAAM (unknown committed)
200x ASRAAM missiles (committed)
500x AIM-7 / RIM-7 missiles (committed)
300x Stinger missiles
10,000x Hydra 70 rockets
10,000x CRV7 rockets
3000x Javelin missiles (unknown committed)
3000x GMLRS
20,000x AT4 rockets
2000x TOW missiles
10,000 RGW 90 ATGMs (committed)
300x AASM bombs (committed)
500x Paveway bombs (committed)
2000x JDAM bombs (unknown committed)
100x SCALP cruise missiles (40x committed)
100x Stormshadow cruise missiles (unknown committed)
100x JASSM cruise missiles
150x ATACMS Ballistic Missiles (unknown committed)

In no way is that list fully comprehensive, but it is realistic, and it gives you a good idea of some of Ukraine's needs throughout 2024. Remember that USA has more than $10 Billion usd worth of PDA funding and more than $13 Billion usd worth of USAI funding. Meanwhile, Europe will collectively send more than $20 Billion worth of equipment to Ukraine this year as well. So if some of the numbers I wrote look large to you, remember that tens of billions of dollars worth of funding pays for A LOT of weaponry.

 

[Iskander]

Russian land grabber building free house for natives

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1787122576000516217

Gary started advertising again
construction companies

The US may send troops to Ukraine

The leader of the Democrats in the US House of Representatives, Hakim Jeffries, did not rule out that the United States will have to send troops to Ukraine if the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose: - “We cannot allow Ukraine to fall, because if this happens, there will be a significant likelihood that America will have to get involved into the conflict - not only with the help of our money, but also with our military personnel"

Gary, soon there will be a lot more work for your construction companies. But not in Ukraine, but in Russia

Democratic leader Jeffries: "Pro-Putin faction" in GOP delayed Ukraine aid

Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said the U.S. must continue supporting Ukraine to prevent a broader war — and that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is the leading Russian sympathizer in the House.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Gary]

Regular day for natives

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1787348436733329888

I think Russia should go all out this summer, capture more land and then fortify.

The West is spending billions to arm Ukraine for another offensive. Looking at the successful Russian defense last year, I think it would be the best course of action to repeat the feat.

The good thing now is Ukraine is running out of manpower, and most importantly WILLING manpower to fill up the battalions. This is something money cannot buy. Ukraine's ruling elite will of course try to prove that investing money in Ukraine is worth the effort and will likely stage another offensive similar to the ones we're seeing last year.

Another failed offensive and we'll likely see the collapse of Western will to arm Ukraine indefinitely.

The more Russia fortify, the more equipment will be destroyed trying to overcome it and most importantly the more Ukrainian soul will die trying to clear it.

Once the back of the Ukrainian army is broken, Kyiv and Odessa is in sight.

As I said before, Ukraine is going for another offensive action, as early as 2025.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1787213244429467649

 

[UkroTurk]

Expectations of NATO
Ukraine is counting on NATO members to decide on the country's application for membership at the next summit in Washington, D.C. in July, Shmyhal said

Russian victory would lead to 'third world war,' Ukrainian PM warns

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-victory-third-world-war-ukraine-prime-minister-warns-1.7193861

 

[Ryder]

These Russian convict soldiers earned their freedom in Ukraine. When they got home, some killed again - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

Such a fcked up war and such a fcked up society.

 

[UkroTurk]

❗️ Near the border with Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian Federation is concentrating troops for an offensive, - ISW.

In the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions, the Russian Federation gathered about 50,000 soldiers;

Analysts say: the Northern Group of Russian troops will most likely not be able to capture Kharkiv;

At the same time, offensive operations on Kharkiv and Sumy will distract the Defense Forces from more important areas of the front.

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against

www.understandingwar.org

Edit
❗️ The Russian Federation will perceive the appearance of F-16 aircraft in Ukraine as carriers of nuclear weapons, regardless of their modification, - the Russian Foreign Ministry continues to try to intimidate.

 

[Gary]

Dogfight between Russian imperialists helicopter and native tribe's drone boat (equipped with R-73 missiles)

The imperialists win

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1787459177406693572

 

[Spitfire9]

Expectations of NATO
Ukraine is counting on NATO members to decide on the country's application for membership at the next summit in Washington, D.C. in July, Shmyhal said

Russian victory would lead to 'third world war,' Ukrainian PM warns

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-victory-third-world-war-ukraine-prime-minister-warns-1.7193861

The only party ready to start a world war is Putin.

Whatever, the Europeans are determined to defend a democracy on their doorstop from vanishing, to be replaced by an aggressive totalitarian regime. The EU+UK economy dwarfs the Russian economy. Russia will run out of resources long before the EU+UK.

Russian GDP 2022: $2.24 trillion
EU GDP 2022: euros15.9 trillion (more in $)
UK GDP 2022: £3 trillion (more in $)

Source for data: Google

The combined economies of the European countries are near 10 times the size of the Russian economy. If Europe puts its mind to raising arms production to strengthen Ukraine's armed forces, I think that Russia will lose its war against Ukraine.

 

[blackjack]

Opening has some diplomatic updates.

• Top Democrat calling for US troops in Ukraine.
• France mulls the possibility of deploying up to 6000 troops in Ukraine.
• Polish FM wants China to tell Russia to surrender.

Wouldn't bet on the first one happening in any meaningful official capacity, and the third one is just funny. Author's speculation of "5000 troops from each of numerous NATO countries" seems like a pipe dream but the sunken cost fallacy evidently goes hard with these people, so what do I know?

It might have been fun knowing you guys.