Live Conflict Syria Civil War

[Tonil2]

It is clear Assad's fall is expected in the next few weeks (if not days), many questions arise but the first one is what will Turkey do ? Will it seize the momentum as SDF/YPG/PKK or whatever it is called continue to grab more territory ?

SDF will dissolve itself mark my words. They don´t want to fight Turkey or TFSA they are willing to cut a deal and dissolve into the new Syrian post Assad gov´t and become a part of that new Syria.

They got already defeated 4 times by Turkey and TFSA they simply don´t have the logistical means to fight them and aren´t willing to do so. Turkey is easily in top 10 strongest nations on earth I would put it in top 7 ahead of S.Korea. SDF knows what it feels like to go against Turkey they are just on a different planet alltogether in warfare. you just can´t fight stuff like that.

SDF exited Tel-rifat without issues and other places and are willing to be included in a Turkey influenced Post-Assad Syria

 

[GoatsMilk]

I've been following this conflict for a decade, and this is mind-boggling. The SAA really was and is nothing without Iran and Russia.

even with iran and russia they have pretty much confirmed they are nothing. A rag tag band of rebels who for most of the war were killing each other, get a bit organisation/direction from Turkiye and they roll them with exceptional ease. Bunch of jokers the lot of em.

really just confirms that the Turkish army would decimate these clowns with exceptional ease.

 

[Huelague]

I've been following this conflict for a decade, and this is mind-boggling. The SAA really was and is nothing without Iran and Russia.

Or a sabotage act within SAA.

 

[Dennixtoue]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865116645145837621

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865169189729665353

 

[Asena_great]

Hopefully they will keep demanding some kind of formal autonomy which HTS will most likely reject.

how do you know that ?? they need money to rebuild Syria, west can provide that if they accept autonomy

 

[Asena_great]

even with iran and russia they have pretty much confirmed they are nothing. A rag tag band of rebels who for most of the war were killing each other, get a bit organisation/direction from Turkiye and they roll them with exceptional ease. Bunch of jokers the lot of em.

really just confirms that the Turkish army would decimate these clowns with exceptional ease.

im still in shock about it how fast they collapse i must admit i have second thought on whether we are really overthrowing assad or this is a trap i mean 13 years of civil war concluded in 13 days it felt so easy. when they had Aleppo i thought iranians and russians will counter attack thats why i was thinking about a formula to prevent that and consolidate rebel's recent gain plus deal with ypg. its seem they were too fast, assad too weak and his ally's were to busy in other conflict to save save the regime. i just feel bad abut YPG since they gain land and didnt lose any man on the other hand Americans bombing iraqi shia millitia with A-10 make me doubted whether we are really winning or walking into another geopolitical trap

 

[Iskander]

«...information has been confirmed that several units of the Iranian IRGC have withdrawn from Syria (to thunderous applause in Israel), and other Iranian units, parts of the Syrian army and the Shiite militia of Iraq are "preparing to defend Damascus".
Whether Damascus will be able to resist armed groups supported by NATO countries (USA, Turkey) and Israel this time is a question that will probably be answered in the coming weeks.
The situation is such that if the SAA loses Homs, Damascus will be effectively cut off from the Mediterranean coast, and therefore from the Russian base."

https://en.topwar.ru/255227-boeviki-zahvatili-sirijskij-gorod-daraa-neskolko-podrazdelenij-ksir-irana-pokinuli-siriju.html

All this means the collapse of the Iranian “Shiite Crescent”

 

[dBSPL]

In al-Qaryatayn, south of Homs, the people have also expelled the regime militia, and one by one, many towns have begun to revolt before the opposition forces have arrived. There are almost no regime militia left in the countryside anyway. The nature of situation has now become more clear.

They lost proxy war, I think the talks that started in Doha today will be different than past Astana talks and more like a armistice talking with the falling of Russia-Iran backed regime. A transitional government will be sought on the condition that Assad and his family step down from power. If Iran wants to continue this war (because it is the biggest loser), this will produce results in favor of the US-backed terrorist organization PKK. They shouldn't be so stupid. The game they wanted to play has exceeded the capacity of Iran's bigoted and populist cadres.

 

[dBSPL]

SNA announced that preparations for the Munbic operation have been completed and entries into the area have begun from multiple axis.

 

[King_West]

SNA announced that preparations for the Munbic operation have been completed and entries into the area have begun from multiple axis.

Finally!! Ive been waiting for this moment for 10 years I think!

 

[dBSPL]

"Units from eastern Syria within the SNA are preparing to set off for Deir ez-Zor. With Assad gone, Arab tribes will not tolerate the YPG's dominance over them."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865323443043893627

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865338715565871362

 

[500]

Assad army is not a big surprise for me. I've been saying for many years that they are useless without pro-Iranian militias.

Lebanese Hezbollah was very weakened in past year, thats also understandable.

The biggest mystery me it is Iraqi Shia militias. In 2014-2017 many many thousands of them died for Assad bringing him victory in Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Deir Ez Zor....

And now not only they do absolutely nothing to save Assad in West Syria, but they also just packing and leaving East Syria without any fight handing everything to SDF. Whats the hell is going on?

The only explanation which comes to my mind is US pressure. But who in US, how, why? What they want to achieve in the end? We live in interesting times.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Iran's state television has changed its tone recently.
Terms like "terrorists" "terror groups" "tekfiri groups" are now replaced with "armed groups".
They also stated that no Shiites had been targeted by these "armed groups".

That for me speaks volumes. Even Iran seems to have accepted the reality of Assad's imminent demise.

 

[dBSPL]

The regime militia and the Russian army have completely evacuated the eastern Homs and Palmyra axis, and the areas on the Tenef front line. In other words, the entire regime military presence is on the M-5 highway axis between Homs and Damascus and the Latakia-Tartus coastal line, and they have evacuated everything else. But Since the FSA's south factions are advancing from the south to Damascus, they cannot give all their forces to Homs.

If the opposition forces had a revanchist attitude towards the massacres that have been going on for years, they would have opened the Latakia front and could have really posed a great threat to the Russian presence there.

However, as far as I understand, they expect to see progress in Doha. If the regime insists, I think their first move will be to cut off Homs’ connection not from the coastal line but from the M-5 highway, namely Damascus.

Similarly, Russia has launched airstrikes with all its might in Homs for the last 24 hours to slow down the opposition. If the regime had lost Homs, there would be nothing left to negotiate today.

 

[schuimpjes]

The biggest mystery me it is Iraqi Shia militias. In 2014-2017 many many thousands of them died for Assad bringing him victory in Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Deir Ez Zor....

And now not only they do absolutely nothing to save Assad in West Syria, but they also just packing and leaving East Syria without any fight handing everything to SDF. Whats the hell is going on?

One possibility is because of Assad rapprochement with the Gulf states that even Assad now is a sitting member in Arab League.

Yes, Iranian delegations also met with the Saudis and Emiratis recently with this new Iranian President, but all know that IRGC as parallel structure within Iranian government are different with the president, which all of those Iraqi Muqawama (Shiite political parties with armed onderbouw) has substantial ties with the IRGC, not Iranian President.

 

[dBSPL]

In areas where the command is weak, regime militias continue to surrender en masse.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865343241635184930

The peace and war is over messages given are very important. The opposition militants must have received training in these matters.

***

Controls in Deir ez-Zor - YPG holds Deir ez-Zor city center without gaining full control, there is chaos in the region / holding Albukamal.

Tribes & Tribes that joined the revolution hold large towns such as Mayadin, Maadan and Ayyash.

There is no region where the YPG/PKK terrorist organization has 100% full control, even on the line opposite/west of the Euphrates River.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865346279150084495

 

[wolveray1]

Assad army is not a big surprise for me. I've been saying for many years that they are useless without pro-Iranian militias.

Lebanese Hezbollah was very weakened in past year, thats also understandable.

The biggest mystery me it is Iraqi Shia militias. In 2014-2017 many many thousands of them died for Assad bringing him victory in Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Deir Ez Zor....

And now not only they do absolutely nothing to save Assad in West Syria, but they also just packing and leaving East Syria without any fight handing everything to SDF. Whats the hell is going on?

The only explanation which comes to my mind is US pressure. But who in US, how, why? What they want to achieve in the end? We live in interesting times.

Most likely the explanation is simple.
If SAA themselves doesn't want to fight for their country and running away leaving everything behind then why should they die fighting for Syria.

Even thier famous Iraqi Ulama ask those iraqi militia not to involved themself anymore with Assad.

 

[dBSPL]

Syrian regime forces started to withdraw from T4, the regime's largest airbase. There were 60 jet shelters at the base.

Shayrat airbase south of Homs, Sayqal airbase in Rif Dimasq, Al Dumayr airbase in Damascus and a few other airfields around Damascus left. The Russians are probably only operating from Hmeynim.


*

Even if the TAF does not start active air interdiction, it should start sorties south east of the Euphrates, which can be explained for intelligence purposes very well. What is important here is to show that Russia's air control over Syria against TAF is history.

 

[Ahlatshah]

Assad army is not a big surprise for me. I've been saying for many years that they are useless without pro-Iranian militias.

Lebanese Hezbollah was very weakened in past year, thats also understandable.

The biggest mystery me it is Iraqi Shia militias. In 2014-2017 many many thousands of them died for Assad bringing him victory in Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Deir Ez Zor....

And now not only they do absolutely nothing to save Assad in West Syria, but they also just packing and leaving East Syria without any fight handing everything to SDF. Whats the hell is going on?

The only explanation which comes to my mind is US pressure. But who in US, how, why? What they want to achieve in the end? We live in interesting times.

I dont think it is about US, Assad is a big liability for everyone at this point, even for Russia. This man had every opportunity in the world, but wasted all of them

- When he came to power (2000), after his brutal father, everyone was hopeful, but he chose to crush the even the slightest demands

- In 2011, Arap spring, first protests were peaceful in nature and their demands were not excessive. But again, he chose the crush them with brute force, that ignited the civil war. We all know the results

- After 2016 and Russian and Iran intervention, he rejected the talk to opposition and did no reform

- Last but not least, Turkish government have been calling for a negotiation for a year, he also rejected.

We are talking about an immature, arrogant and stupid personality. They all know that. But Russian interest and Iranians' secterianist policy kept him there so far. In Iran case, there is a tradition of sorrow in Shiite and Alawites sects that none of us can understand. When they came to power, they hold on to the end, their supporters stand by them whatever the case may be, just being one of theirs is enough reason for them. If Iranians and Shiite Iraqis really gave up for Assad, I dont think it is US or something, they believe the situation is unsalvagable or they cannot do anything more

But again, I think Iran will defend Assad to the bitter end.

 

[Kitra]

But who in US, how, why? What they want to achieve in the end? We live in interesting times.

This all started after the election of Trump.

Trump has repeatedly said that he will end American engagement in Ukraine, europe and middle east. Instead, people behind Trump wants to rigthfully concentrate on China. They realize that Chinese industries are talking over a lot of their previous industries, markets and creation of an alternative payment system (which is also supported by Turkey) will be the end of american world currency status or hegemony.
If America lose the world currency status, Usa will see double digit inflation for long time, creating internal problems.

America have about 10 years until China reach economic and possibly military parity (in Asia) with USA. As a valid response to these concerns, USA is shifting her engagement towards China, leaving Middle East + Europe. This engagement have the very high probability to become a hot conflict so they need to ramp up all the propaganda machines in west. USA is openly pushing hard for an open conflict with China.

However, current American officials realize that they cant just leave Middle East without securing their gains, including for Israel. So they really have to limit Iranian (=future Chinese) influence as much as possible around Israel. the rest of Arab countries are easily controlled dictatorships.

Hence, the current Biden+pentagon officials allowed the current Turkish operation against Assad to limit iran/russia/Chinese in Middle East before trump takes office as he could abruptly order a complete evacuation without any planning for the future.

Keep in mind that USA+EU have always been against any Turkish operation in this region but they are very very quiet this time. Much of the problems in Syria and EU including Brexit would not have happened if Usa+Eu had they listened on Turkey 10 years about creating safe zones in syria. EU+Turkey would have 5 million less refugees and potentially would have had a significant effect on the Ukranian war. Life is a bitch sometimes with unintended consequences. this time, these consequences can cost America their world currency domination in the long term by being bogged down in middle east and ignoring China for the last 25 years.

In essence, this is a combined Turkish, American and Israeli operation to protect american influence in the region for a potential future hot war with China. For Usa, it is better that Turkey is taking over the the role as dominant power in Syria, Lebanon, Palistine than Iran (=future china). Israel can not be allowed to take over as that would just ensure a continued war and american engagement for another 50 years.

Concerning YPG/PKK/KCK, i don't know if trump/americans will keep protecting them against Turkey or throw them under the buss. We will see in the next few weeks but talks about Ocelan in the turkish parliament indicate that we will not be allowed to touch certain regions but take over some (like mumbic/tel refit). We will see in the next few weeks about these plans.

Ps. As a side note, allowing Turkey back into the F35 project is also part of the overall strategic changes in recent years by both Turkey and Usa.