China China's 6th gen fighter has made its maiden flight

[selim]

China invasion of Taiwan will be world's first true robot war.
No "Saving private ryan"-type of Soldiers geting killed on some beaches.
It will be a robot invasion, then the humans.

 

[Nilgiri]

It maybe the rumored JH-26 supersonic stealth fighter-bomber. Not PLAAF's actual 6th fen fighter. Like FB-22 strike Raptor concept. But superior.

View attachment 72867

Or it may actually be their manned component of 6th gen family of system. Who knows! Nevertheless very impressive.

@Sanchez @Kartal1 @TR_123456 @Nilgiri @dBSPL @Anmdt et al.

And @Nilgiri bro today is Mao Zedong's birthday and this is the gift. It's time for you praise CCP for once.

The issue for PRC is its way behind in AI development (if one looks into the current IP flow and investment rates of where they ought to be) and AI will be critical for 6th gen....and will remain so as the CCP is distrustful of LLM scaling and so on.

So the early hardware is largely posturing propaganda related at this point. They still haven't moved to fix the hukou problem for their economy for the long run either (instead the downstream Xi approach to clamp down on new economy + try prop up real estate bulk).

So this seems to be the baked in status quo now, a forex max of 4 trillion USD was achieved 10+ years ago and its held where it is rather than ramping like before (and now its around 3 trillion)....and no signs of even their "debt partners" (forget mature markets) credibly switching to the Yuan after all the earlier fanfare....I mean CCP should lead by example but they dont (i.e the actual likelihood to deleverage to 2 trillion and 1 trillion USD is close to 0 now). It shows up in the market cap/GDP (putting asise whatever the actual GDP is ) ratio too, this is rock and hard place for CCP.

This is large part of what constrains the path forward for China. Basically they are close to their LRAS long run max with what CCP has baked in, there's no export ramp anymore like before, and they are still heavily reliant on US Fed monetary policy which is under control of their main adversary.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Well, that's just the way it is when not only the technological but also the political will is there.
There will certainly be some headaches and alarm bells ringing in the USA, but at the same time we don't know how far NGAD is.
It may be that they are at a similar stage, or even further.

But in my opinion, two things will soon be achieved.
It could well happen that they now export Chengdu J-20s and J-35s more actively in the next 2-3 years.
This could mean a fundamental shift in power in some regions of the world, particularly in some critical countries in South East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa.
It could well be that the US is no longer forced to sell the F-35 so restrictively (only NATO and close allies) but would be forced to relax it massively.
For China it is a win to win situation as they would be more willing to transfer technology for the GEN 5 aircraft, the USA would be under great pressure to make a move if they offer something to country XY.

 

[Afif]

So the early hardware is largely posturing propaganda related at this point.

Still very impressive. There aren't many hardware like this flying around today.

 

[Gessler]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1872270849119772792

 

[500]

China lags far behind the US in engines. So 3 Chinese engines are equal to 2 US engines in thrust.

This thing is heavy stealth interceptor not some "6th generation" fighter.

 

[Afif]

China lags far behind the US in engines. So 3 Chinese engines are equal to 2 US engines in thrust.

No. They have engines with similar dry and military thrust level. (what they lack is durability. service life of new engines is half of that of their US counterparts.)

This is visibly larger than J20 and said to have 50+ tonnes MTOW. If even if it was using F119 it’s gonna need three of them to achieve high performance.

And yes, it is their next generation tactical fighter platform.

 

[500]

No. They have engines with similar dry and military thrust level. (what they lack is durability. service life of new engines is half of that of their US counterparts.)

This is visibly larger than J20 and said to have 50+ tonnes MTOW. If even if it was using F119 it’s gonna need three of them to achieve high performance.

And yes, it is their next generation tactical fighter platform.

WS-10C has thrust 14.5 t, F-135 - 18.6 t.

 

[Zoth]

WS-10C has thrust 14.5 t, F-135 - 18.6 t.

Good, now compare the WS15

 

[blackjack]

they quit 5 years ago from using AL-31s to power their J-20s before, to just make a stealth variation from that same design with the same thrust afterburner thrust performance of 32000lbs now being used on their 6th gens.

Chinese aviation fans are looking at a 2030+ timeframe for production. To make users here laugh the Chinese aviation fans are far more optimistic than Turkish aviation fans estimating a timeframe for the KAAN to have domestic engines.

 

[Zoth]

Chinese aviation fans are looking at a 2030+ timeframe for production. To make users here laugh the Chinese aviation fans are far more optimistic than Turkish aviation fans estimating a timeframe for the KAAN to have domestic engines.

Chinese has already built 2 5th gen fighter jets and their WS15/WS20 jet engines are ready and already in mass production, they already built hundreds of aircrafts prior to their 5th gen fighters.
China's industrial capacity is gigantic, of course Chinese fans are going to be more optimistic.

We as Turkey head bumped into 5th gen program directly without actual prior experience before, so yes, being conservative in terms of timeframe is totally normal for us.

And to be totally honest, if we manage to finish/release 5th gen Kaan in the said timeframe, this is going to be a huge success for us since it's first time.

And a little information about WS10C, those are supposed to be a stop gap until WS-15 becomes fully operational, since we already know the state of WS-15 engines, expect those airframes above to get WS-15 variants moving forward.

 

[Afif]

WS-10C has thrust 14.5 t, F-135 - 18.6 t.

WS-15 is already flying with J20. This also said to feature WS-15 initially. Later, more advanced propulsion.

F135 is not comparable here. It's meant for single engine platform. F119 and WS15 are comparable.

 

[Azeri441]

WS-10C has thrust 14.5 t, F-135 - 18.6 t.

WS-15 has 18+ t. China is not far behind US in military engines anymore, but they are still far far behind in civilian engines.

 

[500]

Good, now compare the WS15

They still have problems with WS-10. When they fix all issues US will also upgrade their engines.

Lets also discuss "6 gen". Next generation should give a performance leap over 5 gen. Will that thing easily defeat F-22? Obviously not.

So what makes it a 6th gen? - A futuristic look? - But YF-23 also had very futuristic look and it lost competition to less futuristic F-22.

 

[Afif]

Lets also discuss "6 gen". Next generation should give a performance leap over 5 gen. Will that thing easily defeat F-22? Obviously not.

Likely yes.

 

[Zoth]

They still have problems with WS-10. When they fix all issues US will also upgrade their engines.

Lets also discuss "6 gen". Next generation should give a performance leap over 5 gen. Will that thing easily defeat F-22? Obviously not.

So what makes it a 6th gen? - A futuristic look? - But YF-23 also had very futuristic look and it lost competition to less futuristic F-22.

Let me ask your question to you, Replace all that you've said with NGAD, and answer me, what makes it better than a 5th gen F35 or F22?

I hope this answers your question.

As the Romans might say, Rogatio tua consulto insolubilis est—your question is deliberately unanswerable.

 

[Azeri441]

View attachment 72877
they quit 5 years ago from using AL-31s to power their J-20s before, to just make a stealth variation from that same design with the same thrust afterburner thrust performance of 32000lbs now being used on their 6th gens.

Chinese aviation fans are looking at a 2030+ timeframe for production. To make users here laugh the Chinese aviation fans are far more optimistic than Turkish aviation fans estimating a timeframe for the KAAN to have domestic engines.

would they not be using WS-15? I thought WS-10 is supposed to be temporary until WS-15 is in

 

[Huelague]

China lacks in technology and experience,

Thats why they have their students around western universities and companies.

 

[Nilgiri]

Still very impressive. There aren't many hardware like this flying around today.

Indeed. I expect many more "Mig 25" moments coming up w.r.t PRC. Whatever comprehensively establishes and deploys remains to be seen and measured in way say SpaceX "90% of worlds mass to orbit " has now shown downstream to its genesis....compared to say continued NASA statist arc which would have squandered a lot more.

I'm just lot more interested in the bigger picture w.r.t how large countries are able to deleverage statism to unshackle things more to get ahead. When the Mig-25 leaked out (and it had its collection of various wunderwaffen observers at the time too), no one at that point thought the USSR would crumble just few decades later....but in hindsight the warning signs were already there.

Of course PRC is whole different scale and "free market dabble + intersection with world economy" compared to insular cold war gosplan 80s high fiscal strained USSR (A problem that Gorby could not solve in the time he had) .... but still PRC's very high centralised statism has its legacy costs and contours going forward that are of more interest to me and the associated burden strains (i.e the number and quality of the horses pulling carts with apples, and most folks often fixate on apples).

Past that the large countries are going to be very risk-averse for any kind of pyrrhic war with peer competitors to begin with (further shown by RUS-UKR war now)....and almost any scale of war will be pyrrhic or extremely costly in some way when its peer or close peer adversary. Wars just are too risky though preparation for them should be done given low-trust and fear between countries in the end.

Deterrence by "new tech" posturing is thus one part of making this more economical and also gaining capacity (whatever it objectively actually is) to take forward at same time.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1872627286404636868