Highly unlikely tbh simply because both nations are nuclear powers
All of the talk regarding tanks, submarines, jets, or missiles are worth peanuts when it is compared to one sweet nuclear bomb
Here is the crux of the issue..... Mohdi screwed badly by allowing such a terror incident to occur (ofcourse if we believed that he didnt instigate it in the first place). In order to hide his incompetence, he blamed such an act on Pakistan; a well-known tactic employed by Mohdi throughout his decades-long rule and Pakistan uses similar tactics to hide their incompetence on many occassions as well
Now the publics of both nations are riled up and the leaders, in order to maintain their power, needs to show that they have the upper hand against the other; thus, india cuts water supply lines while Pakistan sends dozens of tanks, jets, and artillery towards the contact line.
Some skirmishes will occur here and there but no full blown-out war will occur since, if it does, then both India and Pakistan will be erased from the map