The minerals deal is completely fine. It has become significantly more favorable for Ukraine. Below is an outline summarizing the agreement, as well as associated risks:
Summary:
1. Creation of the American-Ukrainian Investment Fund
• Form: The Fund is created as a joint partnership of the two parties:
• The USA is represented by the International Development Finance Corporation.
• Ukraine is represented by the state organization "Agency for the Support of Public-Private Partnerships".
• Purpose: Investments in the reconstruction of Ukraine, which suffered significant destruction as a result of the Russian invasion. The main areas of investment: natural resources (mining, energy) and infrastructure.
• Strategic importance: The Fund is the central mechanism for cooperation between the USA and Ukraine for post-war recovery and integration of Ukraine into the global economic framework.
2. Fund Financing
• Ukraine's Contribution:
• Ukraine undertakes to direct half (50%) of royalties and other license fees from new licenses for natural resources (oil, gas, metals, etc.) to the fund.
• For this purpose, a special fund is created in the Ukrainian budget, from which money is transferred to the investment fund.
• US Contribution:
• The US makes a financial contribution, which may be additionally increased due to military assistance that the US provides to Ukraine (the cost of new military equipment, weapons, etc. is included in the financial assessment of the US contribution).
3. Tax and Financial Benefits
• All operations of the fund, income, payments, contributions of the parties are exempt from taxation in Ukraine.
• The American side also exempts the income of the Ukrainian partner of the fund from taxes in the US, if the income is received from projects implemented on the territory of Ukraine.
4. Currency Conversion and Fund Transfer
• Ukraine guarantees the free conversion of hryvnia into US dollars and the unhindered transfer of funds abroad without any additional fees or delays.
• However, in the event of an economic crisis (significant deterioration of the balance of payments or reduction of gold and foreign exchange reserves), Ukraine may temporarily impose restrictions on transfers and conversion. Such measures must be agreed with the United States.
• Ukraine is obliged to compensate the Fund for all losses that may arise as a result of such restrictions.
5. Fund’s Rights to Participate in Investment Projects
• Ukrainian state authorities undertake to include in all new licenses for the extraction of natural resources conditions under which potential investors must notify the Fund of investment opportunities and negotiate with it.
• Ukrainian state authorities should also include similar provisions in contracts for large infrastructure projects.
6. Priority rights of the fund to purchase products
• The fund (the American side) receives the priority right to purchase products extracted on the territory of Ukraine (for example, natural gas, rare metals, oil).
• Ukraine undertakes to ensure that third countries or companies do not receive significantly more favorable conditions than the fund.
7. Stability and priority of the Agreement
• The Agreement takes precedence over Ukrainian domestic legislation. Ukraine undertakes not to worsen the conditions for the fund by adopting new laws or amendments.
• Ukraine cannot refer to its own legislation to justify non-implementation of this Agreement.
8. Consistency with EU integration
• Ukraine recognizes its international obligations to the EU, and if the terms of this Agreement contradict Ukraine’s future obligations to the EU, the parties must consult and amend the Agreement accordingly.
9. Term of the Agreement
• The Agreement shall enter into force upon ratification by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and shall remain in effect for an unlimited period of time until both parties agree to terminate it.
Risks and issues for Ukraine:
1. Risk of loss of part of budget revenues
• Ukraine gives half of the revenues from new licenses for natural resources to the fund, which reduces potential revenues for the Ukrainian budget for many years.
2. Limitations on control over natural resources
• The fund’s priority rights to investments and purchases of natural resources may significantly limit Ukraine’s ability to choose the most favorable commercial terms and partners.
3. Limitations on financial independence
• Guaranteed conversion and transfer of funds. Ukraine must also compensate the fund for any costs in the event of economic restrictions.
4. Significant legal restrictions and dominance of US conditions
• The priority of the Agreement over Ukrainian legislation limits Ukraine’s right to independently regulate its own legislative environment in the field of investments and natural resources.
5. Military aid
• While it is not clear from the text, conditionally if we buy weapons - then this is also considered an American contribution to military aid to Ukraine and is counted in the Fund.
6. Terms
• The agreement is indefinite and we do not yet see a specific mechanism for making changes from the text.
7. Security guarantees
• Let's be honest - they are absent here.
now that that the Mineral Deal has been signed. We'll wait for details to be released by the Americans to confirm, but it's believed that the air defense systems being hinted at are as many as 10 Additional Patriot Air Defense System Batteries (with PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors.) Ukraine has publically offered $15 Billion usd for the batteries ($1.5 Billion usd per battery). It's unclear if Ukraine will be approved to purchase some / all of the systems. Ukraine is is trying to purchse up to $50 Billion usd worth of weapons from the Amricans.
