Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

GoatsMilk

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The minerals deal is completely fine. It has become significantly more favorable for Ukraine. Below is an outline summarizing the agreement, as well as associated risks:

Summary:

1. Creation of the American-Ukrainian Investment Fund
• Form: The Fund is created as a joint partnership of the two parties:
• The USA is represented by the International Development Finance Corporation.
• Ukraine is represented by the state organization "Agency for the Support of Public-Private Partnerships".
• Purpose: Investments in the reconstruction of Ukraine, which suffered significant destruction as a result of the Russian invasion. The main areas of investment: natural resources (mining, energy) and infrastructure.
• Strategic importance: The Fund is the central mechanism for cooperation between the USA and Ukraine for post-war recovery and integration of Ukraine into the global economic framework.

2. Fund Financing
• Ukraine's Contribution:
• Ukraine undertakes to direct half (50%) of royalties and other license fees from new licenses for natural resources (oil, gas, metals, etc.) to the fund.
• For this purpose, a special fund is created in the Ukrainian budget, from which money is transferred to the investment fund.
• US Contribution:
• The US makes a financial contribution, which may be additionally increased due to military assistance that the US provides to Ukraine (the cost of new military equipment, weapons, etc. is included in the financial assessment of the US contribution).

3. Tax and Financial Benefits
• All operations of the fund, income, payments, contributions of the parties are exempt from taxation in Ukraine.
• The American side also exempts the income of the Ukrainian partner of the fund from taxes in the US, if the income is received from projects implemented on the territory of Ukraine.

4. Currency Conversion and Fund Transfer
• Ukraine guarantees the free conversion of hryvnia into US dollars and the unhindered transfer of funds abroad without any additional fees or delays.
• However, in the event of an economic crisis (significant deterioration of the balance of payments or reduction of gold and foreign exchange reserves), Ukraine may temporarily impose restrictions on transfers and conversion. Such measures must be agreed with the United States.
• Ukraine is obliged to compensate the Fund for all losses that may arise as a result of such restrictions.

5. Fund’s Rights to Participate in Investment Projects
• Ukrainian state authorities undertake to include in all new licenses for the extraction of natural resources conditions under which potential investors must notify the Fund of investment opportunities and negotiate with it.
• Ukrainian state authorities should also include similar provisions in contracts for large infrastructure projects.

6. Priority rights of the fund to purchase products
• The fund (the American side) receives the priority right to purchase products extracted on the territory of Ukraine (for example, natural gas, rare metals, oil).
• Ukraine undertakes to ensure that third countries or companies do not receive significantly more favorable conditions than the fund.

7. Stability and priority of the Agreement
• The Agreement takes precedence over Ukrainian domestic legislation. Ukraine undertakes not to worsen the conditions for the fund by adopting new laws or amendments.
• Ukraine cannot refer to its own legislation to justify non-implementation of this Agreement.

8. Consistency with EU integration
• Ukraine recognizes its international obligations to the EU, and if the terms of this Agreement contradict Ukraine’s future obligations to the EU, the parties must consult and amend the Agreement accordingly.

9. Term of the Agreement
• The Agreement shall enter into force upon ratification by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and shall remain in effect for an unlimited period of time until both parties agree to terminate it.

Risks and issues for Ukraine:
1. Risk of loss of part of budget revenues
• Ukraine gives half of the revenues from new licenses for natural resources to the fund, which reduces potential revenues for the Ukrainian budget for many years.

2. Limitations on control over natural resources
• The fund’s priority rights to investments and purchases of natural resources may significantly limit Ukraine’s ability to choose the most favorable commercial terms and partners.

3. Limitations on financial independence
• Guaranteed conversion and transfer of funds. Ukraine must also compensate the fund for any costs in the event of economic restrictions.

4. Significant legal restrictions and dominance of US conditions
• The priority of the Agreement over Ukrainian legislation limits Ukraine’s right to independently regulate its own legislative environment in the field of investments and natural resources.

5. Military aid
• While it is not clear from the text, conditionally if we buy weapons - then this is also considered an American contribution to military aid to Ukraine and is counted in the Fund.

6. Terms
• The agreement is indefinite and we do not yet see a specific mechanism for making changes from the text.

7. Security guarantees
• Let's be honest - they are absent here.

Just like when Trump came out blaming Ukraine for the war and made a mockery of Zelensky in front of the world, this agreement will be heavily exploited by the USA because Ukraine needs them to survive. The USA will make sure that the Russian threat is always there so that they can extract the most from Ukraine. Americans if were being honest are just as treacherous, duplicitous and deceitful as the Russians are.
 

contricusc

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The minerals deal is completely fine. It has become significantly more favorable for Ukraine.

While the deal is clearly not as bad as it was initially supposed to be, the optics of Ukraine being forced to sign the deal in order to appease Trump are awful.

Why was this deal required in the first place? It was reauired because Trump wanted to humiliate Ukraine so he can boast to his electorate how tough he is and how much better than Biden he is. The only reason why this “deal” was conceived is because Trump wanted to abandon Ukraine to the Russians, and Ukrainians tried to find a way to convice Trump not to do it.

It’s like giving candy to a todler because otherwise he doesn’t stop screaming. While the todler may behave until he finishes his candy, you can rest assured that he will start acting bad again everytime he will want another candy.

The way Trump behaved towards his allies, from Ukraine, Panama to Denmark and Canada was awful, and he should not be rewaded for it. Any reward he gets, even if it is just a symbolic “minerals deal”, reinforces his ideas that he was right to bully his allies in the first place.

The same goes with the trade war he started with the rest of the world. Any country that goes to negotiate with him now is doing the world a disservice, because it legitimizes the todler’s tantrum. China is the only country dealing correctly with Trump, by not even talking to him.

Europe should get its act together and start pumping weapons and ammunition, instead of humiliating itself in front of Trump just to keep him in the “alliance”. Why does Europe need “security guarantees” from the US in order to deploy troops in Ukraine? Is this just another excuse to talk taugh and do nothing?
 

contricusc

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The USA will make sure that the Russian threat is always there so that they can extract the most from Ukraine. Americans if were being honest are just as treacherous, duplicitous and deceitful as the Russians are.

The USA and Russia are two sides of the same coin. Both of them are imperialistic bullies who think they are above everyone else. The US’s advantage is that it is much more economically devloped, and being their vassal is much more lucrative than being Russia’s. It’s better to be the UK than to be Belarus, and it’s better to be South Korea than North Korea.
 

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