TR Economy & Updates

[Rooxbar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1917658477092049114

It's gonna be a bloodbath in the coming months; I doubt the government can stand until 2027.

When there was unorthodox rate cuts while inflation was raging leading to massive currency devaluation, everyone understood that the devaluation and inflation was spurred on by the rate cuts and in the opposite case both would be controlled since trust had not eroded yet. Then orthodox policies came back, devaluation slowed and inflation didn't increase and started to reverse (albeit slowly as expectations are sticky).

This meant the relationship which should hold if there's institutional trust in the economy did hold; higher rates did lead to stopping of devaluation. (As I had predicted at the time, unlike some opposition economists who predicted large devaluation despite rate hikes).

This relation doesn't always hold when there's no trust, as in the case of Argentina until a year ago, or Zimbabwe, Hungary or Weimar republic. Sometimes people become suspicious of rate hikes thinking they can reverse anytime and prefer to stay in assets which are less lucrative but safer.

The break in this relation in our country has happened already after the Imamoglu case. The only reason it hasn't translated to massive devaluation is that the tank is still half full from the previous record rates throughout the past year. But the tank is emptying faster than it can be filled now, and even more hikes will be needed but they will not have the desired effect leading to the situation getting out of control. Hyperstagflation is inevitable.

 

[TheInsider]

Net FX reserves in billion $. 50+ billion $ evaporated in 1 month.

 

[TheInsider]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1918412221798920257

New measures from CB to support the Turkish lira. Basically, capital control policies.

 

[Spitfire9]

For anyone interested in a look at the Turkish economy from a British economist with no interest in Turkiye politically

 

[Huelague]

For anyone interested in a look at the Turkish economy from a British economist with no interest in Turkiye politically

We are in „trouble“ since the beginning of Türkiye Republic.

 

[Sanchez]

We are in „trouble“ since the beginning of Türkiye Republic.

We had the fortune of having a young population with a very nice population pyramid back then. We have managed to become the first country in the history to lose our population increase while not getting richer. This is a first and it's wholly untreaded.

 

[Zafer]

We are not in trouble we don't have a big debt

 

[Spitfire9]

I guess that the economist commenting sees as serious the reversal of improvement in the economy due to the reaction to the arrest of Erdogan's political rival (suggests political instability) and the reaction to Trump's wild tariffs (suggests trade instability).

To me, some useful data in the report.

 

[Huelague]

We are not in trouble we don't have a big debt

We are not in trouble because we don’t have a big debt?

 

[No Name]

This is concerning. The trade deficit has increased compared to last year.

 

[duveil]

We are not in trouble we don't have a big debt

Is that sarcasm？If not could you explain us what is the ratio of debt considered as “big” according to our budget and growing trade deficit ？

 

[Zafer]

Is that sarcasm？If not could you explain us what is the ratio of debt considered as “big” according to our budget and growing trade deficit ？

Government debt is low at 29,5%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_debt

 

[duveil]

Yes actually it looks good. But we are in trouble because of trade deficit, productivity growth,high inflation,income inequality and high interest. So if you are not belong to ％17 percent of the population you are fu.kd.

 

[Zafer]

Yes actually it looks good. But we are in trouble because of trade deficit, productivity growth,high inflation,income inequality and high interest. So if you are not belong to ％17 percent of the population you are fu.kd.

There used to be economy taught to girls with the name "home economy". People should know where and when they can find products cheaper. Traveling in the metro today ladies were chatting and saying they pay 80₺ for a kilo of oranges. But they should know that they can find products cheaper when they go to the farmers market in the evening for the "akşam pazarı", it is like the "happy hour" when you can find the same product cheaper. Yesterday I bought cherry for 50₺/kilo in the evening and its day price was 70₺. And they shouldn't go for off season products and buy stuff that are in season. Ladies that I was sitting with seamed to be expats which did not really know economy. One of them was paying 8000 for heating gas still today saying it is cold and the other lady was as surprised as I was as it is absurd burning that much gas.

 

[Anastasius]

But if the economy was better not only would the prices be cheaper in supermarkets but also at farmer's markets.

 

[duveil]

There used to be economy taught to girls with the name "home economy". People should know where and when they can find products cheaper. Traveling in the metro today ladies were chatting and saying they pay 80₺ for a kilo of oranges. But they should know that they can find products cheaper when they go to the farmers market in the evening for the "akşam pazarı", it is like the "happy hour" when you can find the same product cheaper. Yesterday I bought cherry for 50₺/kilo in the evening and its day price was 70₺. And they shouldn't go for off season products and buy stuff that are in season. Ladies that I was sitting with seamed to be expats which did not really know economy. One of them was paying 8000 for heating gas still today saying it is cold and the other lady was as surprised as I was as it is absurd burning that much gas.

I seriuosly dont see the point here. In Turkiye today one of every four child has malutrition problem and you think that is because "ladies" dont go to “evening market”. I dont know what to say. Either you dont care about those kids and their families or you think that they deserve it because they dont go to farmers market.

 

[Zafer]

I seriuosly dont see the point here. In Turkiye today one of every four child has malutrition problem and you think that is because "ladies" dont go to “evening market”. I dont know what to say. Either you dont care about those kids and their families or you think that they deserve it because they dont go to farmers market.

You can't attribute malnutrition problem to just one cause but not knowing how to manage the home economy is a big one of the causes. The other big cause is the inefficiencies in the supply chain of food that causes fluctuation in food prices. A lot of the inefficiencies are caused by misbehavior of merchants who need to be made to behave and comply with rules and regulations. There is the fresh produce wholesalers' regulation which is expected to come into power before long. This law is going to bring stringent order to the market. Also much heavier penalties to wrongdoers are in order too. You can't explain a merchant stockpiling 350 tons of lemons and causing the tripling of the prices which happened two years ago by good business acumen; it is simply crime committed brazenly that must be punished severely. This is obviously hostility towards Türkiye by the foreign backers of the opposition who wanted to pressure the government. But such difficulties will be ironed out going forward.

 

[duveil]

I dont know your background but my family are farmers for three generations now. So before you find some random shit online please dont write anything about this subject. You appearently dont have a single practical experience about it. After shit load of politic decisions Akp fuc.d agriculture. That is it. And you seriously believe that supply chain issues are just popped out. There were control mechanism before and who do you think removed those,German Christian Democrats？You are talking about misbehaved merchants who happens to become rich after this goverment policies. You blame everyone but leave out the one responsible . That looks like a intentional choice. And I dont respect those kind of ideology. For me this is just sign of moral corruption. I cant make sense out of it for you. Sorry.

 

[Zafer]

I don't find random shit online for any of my posts.

Farmers' gripe comes from the fact that they don't find the same level of wealth they found when farming had a bigger percentage of share in the economy. It is the same in the entire world, farmers a poorer than they were before as people have more needs that they spend their money on than they used to do and paying for food has a smaller share.

 

[duveil]

I told you. I know one or two things about being a farmer not because I read sth. on the internet but I have a first hand experience. And you still keep explaining my world,my problems to me. Like you accused people not going to farmers market without listening their problems. So mate I am sorry. This is not an appealing discussion anymore. You are not listening but you expect me to listen to you. We started this with my question about goverment debt. You presented sth. and I accepted that you are right. I can do that. Clearly you are not cabable of doing that. So be safe and happy. I leave it here.