Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

do you think Russia will suffer a severe fall in its economy and finances soon? I do. I think things are shaping up for that to happen in 2026. I think that will be 'end of game' for Russia' s Ukraine adventure.

While the question was not directed at me, I would like to add that I share your opinion about Russia’s economy, and I think Trump’s current attempt at ending the war is a desperate attempt to save Russia from total economic collapse.

Trump is trying to save Putin from bankruptcy, in the same way that Russian banks saved Trump decades ago from his own bankruptcy.

It is important that Europe blocks the attempts of Trump’s administration to force Ukraine to capitulate, because if the current “peace” talks collapse, Russia will not be able to avoid economic collapse.

 

[Passenger]

Last year, when Ukriane army perform a success attack and Russia willing to negotiate, Europe and US told the Ukriane keep fighting because it is chance to take Crimea back. Today, US has decide to place a bet on the other side, Europe still put the hope in Russia Economy breakdown, that is unconvincing.

 

[mehmed beg]

Valid points.

A question for you if you care to answer: do you think Russia will suffer a severe fall in its economy and finances soon? I do. I think things are shaping up for that to happen in 2026. I think that will be 'end of game' for Russia' s Ukraine adventure.

That is not main question. There are two questions.
One is , if you are Mr Zelensky what would you do , especially if you know that your biggest " Allie" stabbed you in the back and frontline soldiers, who outnumbered, outgunned know that?
Second, even if the collapse of Russia occurs at some future date, will Ukraine be able to do anything to return anything from that? All country is mortgaged to the brim?
By the way, it has always been clear that the West , for the various reasons won't let Russia collapse. That is out of question for many reasons.

 

[mehmed beg]

Last year, when Ukriane army perform a success attack and Russia willing to negotiate, Europe and US told the Ukriane keep fighting because it is chance to take Crimea back. Today, US has decide to place a bet on the other side, Europe still put the hope in Russia Economy breakdown, that is unconvincing.

Are we supposed to understand this like you made some point????

 

[Spitfire9]

Last year, when Ukriane army perform a success attack and Russia willing to negotiate, Europe and US told the Ukriane keep fighting because it is chance to take Crimea back. Today, US has decide to place a bet on the other side, Europe still put the hope in Russia Economy breakdown, that is unconvincing.

The national wealth fund has been run down. Its 242 tonnes of gold are being sold (to Russian citizens), I think. Some of its yuan reserves are being sold, I imagine.

I have read that revenue above 60 USD per barrel from crude sales was added to the NWF, so replenishing it. With Russian crude selling below 60 USD a barrel, that replenishment must have ceased some time ago. When the gold has gone... it has gone. No more money from gold for the government to draw on to pay its bills. When the foreign currency reserves have been sold, same thing. I believe that title to a number of state-owned companies is also held in the NSW. Let me suppose that title to Russian railways is held in the NWF. I guess Putin could sell to an oligarch friend for a knockdown price. He might sell all the state-owned companies.

The point is that Putin is selling Russian state assets to finance a war that the country cannot afford. When they have all gone, how will he find the cash to continue spending much more money than the state is receiving from taxes, crude sales etc? He is already forcing banks to buy bonds, stripping those funds away from industry and consumers. I won't be surprised if he converts citizens' bank deposits into bonds. Yes, more cash to spend on the war but citizens need rubles to buy goods or services in Russia. You can't pay the garage that repaired your car or the supermarket where you bought food or your rail fare to get to work with government bonds. Garages, supermarkets, railway companies pay their suppliers, their employees, their taxes in rubles, not bonds.

I think that Europe putting hope in the Russian economy breaking down is eminently justifiable.

 

[mehmed beg]

Anyway, we shall see, during this negotiations, what Ukraine has or not.
The bet is that Russia will economically collapse, eventually.
Can risk of Ukraine collapsing beforehand or European populace getting tired, be minimised, what are the consequences of such event, well I don't know . What I would do, I don't know.
All what I can say, thanks to the Ukrainian people for their sacrifices. I know that in some strange way, they fought for the Muslims of Balkans, probably Central Asia and maybe Turkey.
I have been around for far too long not to realise, what is coming to us , if Ukraine looses.
Slava Heriojima , Slava Ukrainiii.
I have never met Ukrainian patriots that doesn't understand and likes my country.

 

[Lool]

First videos regarding the fall of pokrovsk have started to emerge are coming

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1993163712036061666

 

[Lool]

No doubt that overall Russia is occupying more and more of Ukraine but I don't think that Russian apologists see this with any realistic perspective. Ukraine has an area of roughly 600,000 sq km. Around 20% is under Russian occupation. In 2024 that might have been 19%. In 2023 that might have been 18%. The rate at which Russia advances is such that in 2035 it should control 30% of Ukraine. In 2045 40%. In 2055 50%.

Even if the Russian government were prepared to continue fighting for decades, it would not have the resources to do so. Its economy and finances are already showing signs of severe damage after less than 4 years of war. The idea that Russia can continue creeping forward for decades to a final victory is completely unrealistic.

Economies and finances win wars. In the Europe versus Russia economic and financial war it is clear which side will win. It is almost as predictable as the outcome of the Japan versus US economic and financial war started in December 1941.

You are 100% correct if the rate of advance is constant; however, in attrition warfare it isnt.

Just to give you an example, Russia used to conquer only one city every 1 to 1.5 years when the war began and people speculated that, with the early rate, it would take more than 200 years to even reach kyiv but now it is estimated that with the current rate it wont even take a 100 years. Recent reports show that they are close to sweeping a total of 6-8 cities in one go within the next 5-6 months

This is the problem with attrition warfare! It isnt linear at all. Everything seems constant until one side starts breaking apart and then shit hits the fan

As for Russia, yes they are facing severe financial difficulties and their economy is slowly breaking apart and sooner or later they wont be able to finance this war unlike Ukraine with their massive EU and US backing (though the west is also getting screwed albeit at a lower rate than Russia)

However, it seems that Ukraine's chronic manpower shortages have started breaking apart way earlier than Russia's finances do and this means that Russia will slowly and surely increase the rate of its progress which will increase pressure over Ukraine and by the time Russia finances break, Russian army may be a few kms from kyiv itself.

That is why I said that Ukraine will lose the war. Ukraine's problem isnt money or weapons but manpower. Now Russia is breaking through Ukrainian lines of defence, that normally took them 100 days to pass 1 km through, in just a matter of days

A catastrophe is slowly being brewed for Ukraine

 

[joel.221]

Does anyone know about the artillery fire support system used in Ukraine?

We are hearing about ifires of Instro, but have some problem with them.

sporadic system with many module, long-time implementation.

especially vulnerable on the battlefield, but the price is not cheap (<80k USD) and easy to replace the module. the performance evaluated mid-level.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of attacks by the Russian Molniya-2 UAV in the Zaporizhzhia region. The video shows the Molniya-2 drone striking temporary deployment points located in buildings and camouflaged infantry positions of the Ukrainian army. The exact location of the footage is not disclosed.

 

[Soldier30]

A Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a Russian unit of the Novorossiysk Guards Mountain Airborne Forces unit is repelled. The video was filmed in the Orekhiv area of the Zaporizhzhia region. In the video, a Russian assault group is seen moving toward the fortified line in a pickup truck. When the Ukrainian drone appears, the group opens fire on it with small arms.

 

[contricusc]

Recent reports show that they are close to sweeping a total of 6-8 cities in one go within the next 5-6 months

Can you name the 6-8 cities they are about to sweep in the next six months?

I ask this because in order to justify some progress, Russia’s supporters are claiming every small town to be a city. So far, the only meaningful cities controlled by Ukraine in the Donetsk region are safe (Kramatorsk and Sloviansk), while Russians struggled with small towns like Pokrovsk, Soledar or Chasiv Yar.

Should I remind you the several attempts Russians made at Kharkiv, only 30km from the border, that all failed? When faced with a big city, Russia can’t do anything.

Ukraine can keep the defense much longer than Russia’s economy can survive.

 

[Anastasius]

I think it's overly optimistic to assume that Russia's economy is gonna collapse any day now since as we have seen they have come up with some pretty creative ways to keep it limping along thus far. But I also think that Ukraine can keep up the fight for quite a few years despite the doom-and-gloom about manpower shortage.

I think the most likely option is that this current peace proposal will fall through and the war will keep going right up until mid-to-late 2026 when a ceasefire will finally be declared and the war will enter a "cold" phase again like before 2022. Neither side will admit defeat but a pause IS necessary at some point and it's going to come within a year, mark my words.