Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

do you think Russia will suffer a severe fall in its economy and finances soon? I do. I think things are shaping up for that to happen in 2026. I think that will be 'end of game' for Russia' s Ukraine adventure.

While the question was not directed at me, I would like to add that I share your opinion about Russia’s economy, and I think Trump’s current attempt at ending the war is a desperate attempt to save Russia from total economic collapse.

Trump is trying to save Putin from bankruptcy, in the same way that Russian banks saved Trump decades ago from his own bankruptcy.

It is important that Europe blocks the attempts of Trump’s administration to force Ukraine to capitulate, because if the current “peace” talks collapse, Russia will not be able to avoid economic collapse.

 

[Passenger]

Last year, when Ukriane army perform a success attack and Russia willing to negotiate, Europe and US told the Ukriane keep fighting because it is chance to take Crimea back. Today, US has decide to place a bet on the other side, Europe still put the hope in Russia Economy breakdown, that is unconvincing.

 

[mehmed beg]

Valid points.

A question for you if you care to answer: do you think Russia will suffer a severe fall in its economy and finances soon? I do. I think things are shaping up for that to happen in 2026. I think that will be 'end of game' for Russia' s Ukraine adventure.

That is not main question. There are two questions.
One is , if you are Mr Zelensky what would you do , especially if you know that your biggest " Allie" stabbed you in the back and frontline soldiers, who outnumbered, outgunned know that?
Second, even if the collapse of Russia occurs at some future date, will Ukraine be able to do anything to return anything from that? All country is mortgaged to the brim?
By the way, it has always been clear that the West , for the various reasons won't let Russia collapse. That is out of question for many reasons.

 

[mehmed beg]

Last year, when Ukriane army perform a success attack and Russia willing to negotiate, Europe and US told the Ukriane keep fighting because it is chance to take Crimea back. Today, US has decide to place a bet on the other side, Europe still put the hope in Russia Economy breakdown, that is unconvincing.

Are we supposed to understand this like you made some point????

 

[Spitfire9]

Last year, when Ukriane army perform a success attack and Russia willing to negotiate, Europe and US told the Ukriane keep fighting because it is chance to take Crimea back. Today, US has decide to place a bet on the other side, Europe still put the hope in Russia Economy breakdown, that is unconvincing.

The national wealth fund has been run down. Its 242 tonnes of gold are being sold (to Russian citizens), I think. Some of its yuan reserves are being sold, I imagine.

I have read that revenue above 60 USD per barrel from crude sales was added to the NWF, so replenishing it. With Russian crude selling below 60 USD a barrel, that replenishment must have ceased some time ago. When the gold has gone... it has gone. No more money from gold for the government to draw on to pay its bills. When the foreign currency reserves have been sold, same thing. I believe that title to a number of state-owned companies is also held in the NSW. Let me suppose that title to Russian railways is held in the NWF. I guess Putin could sell to an oligarch friend for a knockdown price. He might sell all the state-owned companies.

The point is that Putin is selling Russian state assets to finance a war that the country cannot afford. When they have all gone, how will he find the cash to continue spending much more money than the state is receiving from taxes, crude sales etc? He is already forcing banks to buy bonds, stripping those funds away from industry and consumers. I won't be surprised if he converts citizens' bank deposits into bonds. Yes, more cash to spend on the war but citizens need rubles to buy goods or services in Russia. You can't pay the garage that repaired your car or the supermarket where you bought food or your rail fare to get to work with government bonds. Garages, supermarkets, railway companies pay their suppliers, their employees, their taxes in rubles, not bonds.

I think that Europe putting hope in the Russian economy breaking down is eminently justifiable.

 

[mehmed beg]

Anyway, we shall see, during this negotiations, what Ukraine has or not.
The bet is that Russia will economically collapse, eventually.
Can risk of Ukraine collapsing beforehand or European populace getting tired, be minimised, what are the consequences of such event, well I don't know . What I would do, I don't know.
All what I can say, thanks to the Ukrainian people for their sacrifices. I know that in some strange way, they fought for the Muslims of Balkans, probably Central Asia and maybe Turkey.
I have been around for far too long not to realise, what is coming to us , if Ukraine looses.
Slava Heriojima , Slava Ukrainiii.
I have never met Ukrainian patriots that doesn't understand and likes my country.