TR Economy & Updates

[Zafer]

IMF PPP GDP predictions for 2026 with comparison to Türkiye, gray columns are growth predictions multiplied by 100 to include in the same chart with % in excess series of GDP. Shows by how much each economy is bigger or smaller than the economy of Türkiye. Of particular note given the current growth rates continue for each country Türkiye surpasses both France and UK in 6 years.

PPP GDP

 

[Huelague]

IMF PPP GDP predictions for 2026 with comparison to Türkiye, gray columns are growth predictions multiplied by 100 to include in the same chart with % in excess series of GDP. Shows by how much each economy is bigger or smaller than the economy of Türkiye. Of particular note given the current growth rates continue for each country Türkiye surpasses both France and UK in 6.16 years.

PPP GDP

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If the government is not able to handle the exchange rate (€,$), we are doomed.

 

[Zafer]

If the government is not able to handle the exchange rate (€,$), we are doomed.

I think it will be easier to deal with exchange rates in the future as other economies are not doing better than we are.

 

[contricusc]

IMF PPP GDP predictions for 2026 with comparison to Türkiye,

GDP PPP is very irrelevant. Not only that GDP is not a very good indicator, but making further adjustments to it (like the PPP) makes it completely useless.

At least nominal GDP has the same measurement unit, even though GDP is not very relevant in itself, and can be inflated by completely irrelevant economic activity.

 

[Zafer]

GDP PPP is very irrelevant. Not only that GDP is not a very good indicator, but making further adjustments to it (like the PPP) makes it completely useless.

At least nominal GDP has the same measurement unit, even though GDP is not very relevant in itself, and can be inflated by completely irrelevant economic activity.

It is one of the main statistics numbers used around the world, you don't need to take it as a magic number that tells everything. After all the mathematician who though an arithmetic mean is a single number that represents a series drowned in a stream only two feet deep on average.

 

[Zafer]

PPP GDP comparison, shows the amount of goods you can afford to buy
Governments in debt

	PPP GDP per capita 2026 est	Public debt per capita (PPP 2017)	Nominal Public debt PC (in Forex 2017)	General government gross debt/GDP (2025)
US	$92,883	$46,645	$46,645	122.5%
TR	$45,994	$7,613	$2,966	26.7%
factor (x)	2.02	6.127	15.73	4.59

An American can buy twice as much stuff as a Turk but also has five times the debt (they shut down their government to save costs)

 

[Huelague]

I think it will be easier to deal with exchange rates in the future as other economies are not doing better than we are.

Can you explain why?

 

[Zafer]

Can you explain why?

Türkiye is developing its energy sector that is looking for energy surplus in 5 years or so. Energy imports is the single big ticket item that drains foreign currency reserves. When you patch that hole that leaks money you are already foreign currency positive. Türkiye is also a diverse economy that has production and trade in practically every field you look at. This makes us resilient in the face of changing winds in the world trade and gives us the upper hand in our dealings. It is a basket portfolio of investments that makes gains in other fields when you suffer losses in some. Türkiye has also been through the worst of economic turmoils and has learned to weather it gaining lots of experience. Currently we are the #10 in gold reserves with 642 tons in the bank and are also cashed up with foreign currency.

 

[Deliorman]

Can you explain why?

He will tell you what his wishful thinking tells him but I will tell you the truth.

No matter what happens Turkish Lira will continue to go down and down and down because the Turkish currency and economy lack the most important thing- the TRUST of the local and foreign investors. Everyone with half a brain in Turkey knows that the best thing you can do with your liras is to buy dollars, euros and gold- how can you expect the lira to stay stable in such case?

Turkey is not seen as a country with bright future and it’s government (judiciary and executive branch) are not considered as trustworthy for the big foreign investors too. Turkey is a perfect place for speculative investments, money laundering and scammers but not for the big companies and investment funds who look for stability and potential.

 

[Zafer]

@Huelague

Germany is rumored to be going to repatriate its gold that is kept it the US; what do you think about it, can they actually do it?

 

[uçuyorum]

@Huelague

Germany is rumored to be going to repatriate its gold that is kept it the US; what do you think about it, can they actually do it?

It would be seen as an escalation, they can't without risking sanctions and losing at least half the value of what that gold is, or perhaps more

 

[Zafer]

It would be seen as an escalation, they can't without risking sanctions and losing at least half the value of what that gold is, or perhaps more

Not only that, foreign direct investment in the US by EU is declining fast too, they will pull off.

 

[Huelague]

@Huelague

Germany is rumored to be going to repatriate its gold that is kept it the US; what do you think about it, can they actually do it?

This is a fatal signal to other countries, like, save your moneys from USA. Of course, Germany can do this. But the past/current „agreement“ with US is, store your trade surplus in our Gold Bank.

 

[Nilgiri]

GDP PPP is very irrelevant. Not only that GDP is not a very good indicator, but making further adjustments to it (like the PPP) makes it completely useless.

At least nominal GDP has the same measurement unit, even though GDP is not very relevant in itself, and can be inflated by completely irrelevant economic activity.

There are pros and cons to both estimates.

One problem with PPP, is that its reliant on a very low frequency survey (once every 5 years, once every 10 years on some stuff too) for the prices of consumption goods....through what is known as the ICP (International comparison program). This takes me back to debates I had 10+ years ago when I looked into all of this deeply.

In any case that means countries that experience high inflation in these blocks of time between the survey years (and their releases that are another multi year delay after it too i.e why I say 10 years along with the 5 year one).... basically get an outdated PPP multiplier as result....so their PPP amounts can get highly fudged.

You need to have consistent low enough inflation (like say well under 10%, preferably <5%) for the PPP multiplier components to stay more relevant along "the drift" years.

 

[Huelague]

He will tell you what his wishful thinking tells him but I will tell you the truth.

No matter what happens Turkish Lira will continue to go down and down and down because the Turkish currency and economy lack the most important thing- the TRUST of the local and foreign investors. Everyone with half a brain in Turkey knows that the best thing you can do with your liras is to buy dollars, euros and gold- how can you expect the lira to stay stable in such case?

Turkey is not seen as a country with bright future and it’s government (judiciary and executive branch) are not considered as trustworthy for the big foreign investors too. Turkey is a perfect place for speculative investments, money laundering and scammers but not for the big companies and investment funds who look for stability and potential.

Some points are right. The “stability argument” is mostly wrong. We have the most stability period in our country since 25 years.

 

[contricusc]

There are pros and cons to both estimates.

One problem with PPP, is that its reliant on a very low frequency survey (once every 5 years, once every 10 years on some stuff too) for the prices of consumption goods....

That’s one problem with PPP. The other problem is that when you build foreign reserves, pay down your debt, or when you conduct trade with other countries, you don’t do it in PPP dollars. You do it in nominal dollars.

If a country wants to import oil, copper, fighter jets, ammunition, etc., it pays the same price regardless of its PPP indicator. The US pays the same as Bangladesh or China when importing oil or copper.

When someone says China has a bigger economy than the US, because of the PPP adjustments, it is misleading, because the PPP adjustments doesn’t translate into purchasing power on international markets.

If you have two countries with equal GDP in PPP terms, but one has double GDP in nominal terms because local prices are twice as high, their economies are not equal. The country with higher nominal GDP has much more purchasing power for imports of raw materials, technology, weapons, etc., or to make investments.