TR TAI / TUSAS Turkish Aerospace Industries - News

[Saithan]

Who's going to deliver the propulsion for such jets, the US ?

 

[Sanchez]

Who's going to deliver the propulsion for such jets, the US ?

Of course, E-Jets use PW engines. To be clear I don't think this is about a new or joint IP for a new project but TAI taking part in some part(from built to spec to print to build, maybe even license building) of E-Jet production; with possible future dealings in military sector. Political will could be there, let's see if all this will mean anything.

 

[Lool]

Looks like the long mentioned Embraer E-Jet partnership with TAI might also come together with a THY buy of E-Jets if it happens. I don't really see how that really would work unless it's for AJet, but let's see.

"What makes this matter significant is not just Turkish Airlines’ search for aircraft. During my time in Brazil, I learned that a delegation from Turkey—comprising representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Technology and TUSAŞ—was also in contact with Embraer. I even had the opportunity to speak with some of the individuals on the delegation. The discussions are not limited to aircraft sales.

Topics such as production, technology sharing, joint engineering efforts, maintenance activities, and industrial cooperation are also on the table. The most significant issue that caught my attention, however, was the possibility of jointly producing a civilian passenger aircraft. Although this is still in the early stages, this possibility is extremely important in terms of Turkey’s civil aviation goals. This is because Embraer and TUSAŞ possess two distinct strengths that complement each other.

Embraer is one of the world’s most experienced manufacturers in the civil passenger aircraft and business jet sectors. TUSAŞ, on the other hand, has established significant engineering capabilities through projects such as KAAN, HÜRJET, ANKA, AKSUNGUR, GÖKBEY, and space initiatives. Therefore, the two companies’ search for common ground is no coincidence."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2065430487158382868

I still don't understand why on earth would TUSAS concentrate on the Civilian E-JETS rather than Embraer C-390. For Turkey's needs, the military transport aircraft C-390 is of more vital importance than a civilian passenger program that shouldn't be on Turkey's priority list for the time being

 

[Zafer]

Looks like the long mentioned Embraer E-Jet partnership with TAI might also come together with a THY buy of E-Jets if it happens. I don't really see how that really would work unless it's for AJet, but let's see.

"What makes this matter significant is not just Turkish Airlines’ search for aircraft. During my time in Brazil, I learned that a delegation from Turkey—comprising representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Technology and TUSAŞ—was also in contact with Embraer. I even had the opportunity to speak with some of the individuals on the delegation. The discussions are not limited to aircraft sales.

Topics such as production, technology sharing, joint engineering efforts, maintenance activities, and industrial cooperation are also on the table. The most significant issue that caught my attention, however, was the possibility of jointly producing a civilian passenger aircraft. Although this is still in the early stages, this possibility is extremely important in terms of Turkey’s civil aviation goals. This is because Embraer and TUSAŞ possess two distinct strengths that complement each other.

Embraer is one of the world’s most experienced manufacturers in the civil passenger aircraft and business jet sectors. TUSAŞ, on the other hand, has established significant engineering capabilities through projects such as KAAN, HÜRJET, ANKA, AKSUNGUR, GÖKBEY, and space initiatives. Therefore, the two companies’ search for common ground is no coincidence."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2065430487158382868

If it is for a new design aircraft to be produced both by Embraer and TAI then it would be OK otherwise a waste of time.
TAI should be looking for an aircraft that is in high demand around the world. And it is no other than the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737Max single aisle class. This class is the best selling class and is actually something that Türkiye can pull off both by partnering with another maker or going alone. Considering that the engine for this class is a civilian equivalent of the power class of the TF35k engine TEI can work on such an engine to power this aircraft. China's C919 has received around 1250 orders, a Turkish made equivalent can probably receive 500 orders in a decades time. Certification of such aircraft is costly if you want to do it in Europe but you can start with Turkish certification which will probably be accepted by region's countries too. Such an aircraft can be a good step up for Embraer too.

Considering the already existing bottlenecks in the supply chains of such aircraft it would be wise to enter this space with new capabilities.

 

[Sanchez]

China's C919 has received around 1250 orders, a Turkish made equivalent can probably receive 500 orders in a decades time

Every single C919 order save for about 20 Singaporean and about 3 Laotian aircraft are from Chinese airlines and leasing firms, about half of all total orders are from Chinese banks. They bet on financing and then leasing the aircraft abroad once the certification outside is done. It still has about a decade for full on worldwide service if you ask me. We on the other hand don't have such regional airlines or banks that can bankroll the development. As Chinese example shows us, we also don't have that many friends who have noone else but us to place orders. North Cyprus maybe.

Certification of such aircraft is costly if you want to do it in Europe but you can start with Turkish certification which will probably be accepted by region's countries too

There's no real market. Every regional airline also uses the same aircraft to fly to Europe. We live near Europe; our own regional airliner not having EASA certification is just not a good idea.

Considering the already existing bottlenecks in the supply chains of such aircraft it would be wise to enter this space with new capabilities

We would experience the same exact bottlenecks that are affecting Airbus and Boeing. Margins are razor thin in this sector, in both building the things and operating the things. Simply not profitable enough and TAI would hemorrhage money. Mind you I'm not even talking about engines here, just the aircraft. Engine is a wholly different business altogether and just being able to build the thing is not enough for it to be an actual good business. So we would of course need to use RR or GE, that's not changing anytime soon for any builder.

 

[Zafer]

Every single C919 order save for about 20 Singaporean and about 3 Laotian aircraft are from Chinese airlines and leasing firms, about half of all total orders are from Chinese banks. They bet on financing and then leasing the aircraft abroad once the certification outside is done. It still has about a decade for full on worldwide service if you ask me. We on the other hand don't have such regional airlines or banks that can bankroll the development. As Chinese example shows us, we also don't have that many friends who have noone else but us to place orders. North Cyprus maybe.


There's no real market. Every regional airline also uses the same aircraft to fly to Europe. We live near Europe; our own regional airliner not having EASA certification is just not a good idea.

We would experience the same exact bottlenecks that are affecting Airbus and Boeing. Margins are razor thin in this sector, in both building the things and operating the things. Simply not profitable enough and TAI would hemorrhage money. Mind you I'm not even talking about engines here, just the aircraft. Engine is a wholly different business altogether and just being able to build the thing is not enough for it to be an actual good business. So we would of course need to use RR or GE, that's not changing anytime soon for any builder.

Things you can't do now you can do tomorrow. This is a business that will bear fruit in 8 to 10 years. In that time frame the world will change several times over. Look at Russia their aviation is suffering and they are striving to make their own engines and planes. China is a big market and can't afford to pay all that money to foreign makers. Türkiye sits in the middle of the world and having the location advantage we can serve a big geography much much bigger than ourselves alone. Consider the success we made in unmanned aviation. African nations are hungry for all kind of aviation technology.

We of course want to have EASA certification but just like how China is doing until we have that certificate we can operate in geographies outside Europe and the US with our own certification. I am not saying other countries will not look for an EASA certification if they can but if they can have the planes more affordably and operate outside of Europe they can accept Turkish certification because in 8-10 years we will have completed a myriad of aviation projects already and we will have some of the best credentials in aviation and our certification will be more valuable.

As of today there are 50 THY planes grounded because of PW engine problems. Other airlines have similar problems, the existing Airbus Boeing duo can not serve the aviation industry well enough. Airbus wants to expand but their manager himself has stated that expansion plans are hinged to engine supplies and can not be remedied easily. There is need for extra capacity in this field.

We have the advantage of access to more affordable workforce and we have the ambitions to use new technology like using thermoplastics instead of thermoset plastics in production. While we are having to do every bit of development for our Kaan fighter we will have a supply chain from mining to end product both in airframes and in engines and ancillaries. Putting our already gained capabilities to work is an inevitable path to follow as otherwise the capabilities you gained are bound to be lost over time. Expansion is the only way to becoming sustainable. Türkiye has set its eyes on making this century a century of greatness and the steps we have to take are obvious to follow the ambition.

 

[Passenger]

If it is for a new design aircraft to be produced both by Embraer and TAI then it would be OK otherwise a waste of time.
TAI should be looking for an aircraft that is in high demand around the world. And it is no other than the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737Max single aisle class. This class is the best selling class and is actually something that Türkiye can pull off both by partnering with another maker or going alone. Considering that the engine for this class is a civilian equivalent of the power class of the TF35k engine TEI can work on such an engine to power this aircraft. China's C919 has received around 1250 orders, a Turkish made equivalent can probably receive 500 orders in a decades time. Certification of such aircraft is costly if you want to do it in Europe but you can start with Turkish certification which will probably be accepted by region's countries too. Such an aircraft can be a good step up for Embraer too.

Considering the already existing bottlenecks in the supply chains of such aircraft it would be wise to enter this space with new capabilities.

I would advise those in the Turkish aviation industry to look at civilian aircraft development rationally. This is an industry with extremely high investment and very slow returns. You need hundreds of billions in investment over decades just to barely see any returns. And when you start selling passenger aircraft, you'll find that the more you sell, the more you lose.

Brazil, Japan, and China have all pursued the development of civilian passenger aircraft, and all started by reverse-engineering the classic MD-80. Embraer's ERJ series was relatively successful and opened up the international market. China's ARJ series mainly operates domestically, but it also received an order from Indonesia (though mostly backed by Chinese investment), which facilitated the development of the C919, an aircraft in the same class as the A320 and B737. On the other hand, Japan, despite its close cooperation with the American aviation industry, halted development of the MRJ because they found the costs unaffordable and the returns too small.

China decided to develop the C919 because of its enormous population and market demand. According to Boeing's report, China needs approximately 3,000 single-aisle passenger aircraft (clearly a somewhat exaggerated figure), and the list price of a single-aisle aircraft is about $100 million, meaning a market worth hundreds of billions. However, the investment in the C919's development so far far exceeds that figure. China has been investing since the 1990s, and so far there is no prospect of commercial returns (likely none in the next 20 years either). Its investment is more about boosting employment and accumulating technological expertise. As for the engine, that is a separate issue. The A320, B737, and C919 all use the LEAP engine from CFMI. China is developing its own CJ1000 to replace the LEAP, but that is another story that will take over 50 years.

I would suggest to build more vendor company in your country, but not start a passenger aircraft plan now.

 

[Zafer]

China's aviation story is long but the world moves faster now.
Political tensiones can make the norm of today a thing of the past.
If you can make planes work there will be users not because you are the best but because you are there.
The poorest quality you can afford to make today will be better than the quality that was the norm 15 years ago.

China still uses lots of foreign parts and pays development cost on top of it so the margins are thinner that it can be.
Western makers charge the high cost of living in their countries on their products.
Türkiye has lower cost advantage with faster development speeds.
More than likely when we have the product ready to ship we will find riders ready to ride.

 

[Passenger]

China's aviation story is long but the world moves faster now.
Political tensiones can make the norm of today a thing of the past.
If you can make planes work there will be users not because you are the best but because you are there.
The poorest quality you can afford to make today will be better than the quality that was the norm 15 years ago.

China still uses lots of foreign parts and pays development cost on top of it so the margins are thinner that it can be.
Western makers charge the high cost of living in their countries on their products.
Türkiye has lower cost advantage with faster development speeds.
More than likely when we have the product ready to ship we will find riders ready to ride.

But the path is the same. Currently, how many aviation material suppliers/MROs are there in Turkey? Are there any Airbus/Boeing commercial aircraft final assembly plants in the country? The answer I got is that the former exists but the latter does not. Moreover, when I searched, I found that the TRJ project has already been launched, so the decision-makers have made the right decision to first attempt to build a regional jet model, just like Brazil, China, and Japan.

The project was cancelled in 2017 because it was “economically unfeasible”. OK

 

[Zafer]

But the path is the same. Currently, how many aviation material suppliers/MROs are there in Turkey? Are there any Airbus/Boeing commercial aircraft final assembly plants in the country? The answer I got is that the former exists but the latter does not. Moreover, when I searched, I found that the TRJ project has already been launched, so the decision-makers have made the right decision to first attempt to build a regional jet model, just like Brazil, China, and Japan.

The project was cancelled in 2017 because it was “economically unfeasible”. OK

We assembled F16 in the past but this does not count I think.
But who needs somebody else's assembly line to start their own project.
In this day and age you can do it your way.

 

[Passenger]

We assembled F16 in the past but this does not count I think.
But who needs somebody else's assembly line to start their own project.
In this day and age you can do it your way.

The assembly line is used for training worker and engineer, it will need thousands of worker to product a plane and all of them need to be well educated. Otherwise it will need to hired them fromother country, just like US transfer the TSMC to Arizona.
I'm not going to deny the future to build a plane, but you have to take a plan and know the cost.