From my pessimistic ex-RCN friend:
I think 'pessimism' may be the operative word there.
It’s unfortunate, but the project goes on. Hopefully it’ll get cancelled before it destroys the rest of the defence budget in general and the RCN in particular.
1) single largest project in Canadian military history. Potential for massive blowouts on top of already budgeted cost.
I agree that there is a risk here. I think the South Korean Hanwha Ocean with its KSS-III-batch II has a lower risk of a cost over run, given (1)Hanwha Ocean already has a boat in the water under going trials, and (2) given KSS-III change from batch I to batch II is no where near the scope of the change of TKMS change from Type-212A to to Type-212CD.
However, having typed that, TKMS already have more than one Type-212CD hull being built, with the design pretty much frozen, so that helps mitigate the risk to a large extent.
2) the RCN would not know what to do with 12 submarines. They couldn’t figure it out with 4, which is why they normally operate with 3 of them tied up.
I believe this misstated or inaccurate. Typically to keep one warship operational at sea, one needs at least 3 warships. The remaining two are tied up along side, or undergoing trials. For submarines it is even more difficult, and instead of a 3-to-1 (operational) ratio, a 4-to-1 (operational) ratio is not uncommon.
In the case of the Victoria Class, the RCN has major issues. NO other navy operates those used submarines. They were already used and not operational when the RCN procured them. The RCN had to make and try to keep them operational, and find some way to have adequate parts.
Given both Norway and Germany (and Hanwha Ocean had the KSS-III been chosen) have active submarine programs for that class of subs, obtaining parts, and benefiting from other countries experiences will be massively superior to what RCN has struggled with in the Victoria class. So I am optimistic here.
In regards to the numbers (12 submarines) ... Canada has 3 oceans: Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic. If one assumes a pessimistic 4-to-1 (operational) ratio, then 12 submarines would pessimistically give 3 operational - one for each ocean. So the numbers IMHO makes sense.
3) the RCN cannot even man the 4 they have now and that’s with 4 ships paid off and a lot of the rest running on minimum crew.
Agreed. That is a major problem. But that also applies to the Kingston class, to the Harry de Wolf class, to the Halifax class and the up and coming Type-26 River Class destroyers. The RCN has major manpower issues. The recent year has shown an uptick in finally meeting recruitment goals, but one year of success in recruitment will not in itself solve the RCN manpower problem. Both recruitment and retaining existing sailors, on a continual basis, needs to be seen. Thus far that has NOT been seen. The RCN is IMHO suffering from a 'crisis of invisibility' in the Canadian public, making it difficult not only to recruit and retain, but also to obtain (in the past) financial support. The current PM is leading a strategy of supporting Canada's military, but that could change for the worse in a future election.
So yes - IMHO, manpower is a serious problem, despite the recent uptick.
4) they can’t get effective help from the building nation, because they can’t keep their 4 submarines working either.
That not correct. The Upholder class (ie Victoria class) have been out of service for decades. The RN has no interest in providing much help there (the RCN have their own problems). This is not the same for the German's and Norwegians who are actively procuring the Type-212CD (nor for that matter, for the South Koreans who are actively procuring the KSS-III-batch-II).
Hopefully this gets cancelled before the budgets blow out and can the surface fleet like the SSN project did in the 80’s. Unfortunately it’s a political project rather than a military one, and it’s unlikely to go away before it’s sponsoring government.
This is a military project. It orginates from a military (naval) requirement. And with respect, your ex-RCN friend is wrong.
Not that it matters, but I am also ex-RCN.
