TR Economy & Updates

Saithan

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One of the things I fear is that the state/government overspends compared to our capability to pay off our debt. In short this translates into what the people are doing to survive. Having multiple credits to survive, but never being able to pay off the debt. Until they default on their debt.

We should have a state policy of having cash/gold equivalent of 1,5% of our own GDP up to 1 trillion USD. The amount beyond that can be regulated.

There should be a death sentence without trial for government and state officials who'd try to change laws to get their hands on that money or even overspending on budgets.

Some ppl keep saying oil and gas will disappear, and what are Gulf countries going to do, well they're investing and making sure they own a lot that yields a lot, so they can just live off interest and investments.
 

Zafer

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One of the things I fear is that the state/government overspends compared to our capability to pay off our debt. In short this translates into what the people are doing to survive. Having multiple credits to survive, but never being able to pay off the debt. Until they default on their debt.

We should have a state policy of having cash/gold equivalent of 1,5% of our own GDP up to 1 trillion USD. The amount beyond that can be regulated.

There should be a death sentence without trial for government and state officials who'd try to change laws to get their hands on that money or even overspending on budgets.

Some ppl keep saying oil and gas will disappear, and what are Gulf countries going to do, well they're investing and making sure they own a lot that yields a lot, so they can just live off interest and investments.
Turkish people have in access of 3500 tons of gold as jewelry in their stash, far beyond the Central Bank's 500 tons. Government makes many calculations to keep the financials sustainable, there are internationally acknowledged criteria in place for this purpose. Gulf states should make sure their people start to get used to working instead of basking.
 

mulj

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Oil and gas for at least 100 years will not dissipear if it ever will, it would bi iresponsable to ditch it away from strategic planning.
 

Saithan

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Oil and gas for at least 100 years will not dissipear if it ever will, it would bi iresponsable to ditch it away from strategic planning.
Let's assume the global warming gets worse. Let's assume that Izmit earthquake repeats itself in the entire layline stretch.

My point was that our government needs to ensure a solid economy and never spend that money, but they have spent it all on infrastructure and such, overspent.

Like @Zafer points out maybe our people have 3500 tons of gold under their pillow, or they've already spent it to help the country in the early 2000 when AKP came to power. What if we don't have that gold.

I really dislike how these speculations can be used in governance it's IMO proof of incompetence, and perhaps tomorrow or next month the amount our people have is "maybe" 6000 tons.
 

Zafer

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Let's assume the global warming gets worse. Let's assume that Izmit earthquake repeats itself in the entire layline stretch.

My point was that our government needs to ensure a solid economy and never spend that money, but they have spent it all on infrastructure and such, overspent.

Like @Zafer points out maybe our people have 3500 tons of gold under their pillow, or they've already spent it to help the country in the early 2000 when AKP came to power. What if we don't have that gold.

I really dislike how these speculations can be used in governance it's IMO proof of incompetence, and perhaps tomorrow or next month the amount our people have is "maybe" 6000 tons.
Economy is a living thing. You need to do more work to keep it going and improving. The estimates are 3000-5000 tons of gold on people's hands which actually sits at 4000 tons. Us treasury has 8000 tons for comparison. You always have to come up with ideas of improving, solidifying and fortifying the economy and also expanding it. Opening new areas of activity and going for higher value production. That's the only way to grow the income of people. Turkey has been doing this for a while now by going for defense and aviation and actually all kinds of technology acquisition projects. Technology is a thing that can be exported as products and bring in money from every part of the world.
 

mulj

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Let's assume the global warming gets worse. Let's assume that Izmit earthquake repeats itself in the entire layline stretch.

My point was that our government needs to ensure a solid economy and never spend that money, but they have spent it all on infrastructure and such, overspent.

Like @Zafer points out maybe our people have 3500 tons of gold under their pillow, or they've already spent it to help the country in the early 2000 when AKP came to power. What if we don't have that gold.

I really dislike how these speculations can be used in governance it's IMO proof of incompetence, and perhaps tomorrow or next month the amount our people have is "maybe" 6000 tons.
all i am saying that plans should be logical and not based on 1st world trends only. of course, ecological friendly sources are always welcome but they can not create energy balance needed.
 

Nilgiri

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One of the things I fear is that the state/government overspends compared to our capability to pay off our debt. In short this translates into what the people are doing to survive. Having multiple credits to survive, but never being able to pay off the debt. Until they default on their debt.

We should have a state policy of having cash/gold equivalent of 1,5% of our own GDP up to 1 trillion USD. The amount beyond that can be regulated.

There should be a death sentence without trial for government and state officials who'd try to change laws to get their hands on that money or even overspending on budgets.

Some ppl keep saying oil and gas will disappear, and what are Gulf countries going to do, well they're investing and making sure they own a lot that yields a lot, so they can just live off interest and investments.

Famous case of last phenomenon is Nauru.

One point it was one of the wealthiest per capita countries in the world (During cold war)...all from phosphate (or nitrate i forgot) mining because its island was basically made of petrified guano iirc in one whole area.

It invested a whole bunch into real estate and equity funds in Australia and thats what its living off right now (though at far lower per capita of course) after the guano mines ran dry in 80s I think.

At least thats how my economics prof (an Aussie) explained it to me in high school.
 

Saithan

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Famous case of last phenomenon is Nauru.

One point it was one of the wealthiest per capita countries in the world (During cold war)...all from phosphate (or nitrate i forgot) mining because its island was basically made of petrified guano iirc in one whole area.

It invested a whole bunch into real estate and equity funds in Australia and thats what its living off right now (though at far lower per capita of course) after the guano mines ran dry in 80s I think.

At least thats how my economics prof (an Aussie) explained it to me in high school.
I think it requires special skills to save up a lot money and not use that rather than use money you don't have, and just print more.

There is a reason why Norways Oil Wealth Fund is not squandered away. I think they have a saying that every Norwegian born is a millionaire.
 

Zafer

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One big loss for gulf countries is that they are at loss not investing in Turkey as their money can buy more in Turkey than elsewhere and Turkey is right nextdoor. There is no better choice for them. The pandemic will speed up the slide for them.
 

Indos

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One of the things I fear is that the state/government overspends compared to our capability to pay off our debt. In short this translates into what the people are doing to survive. Having multiple credits to survive, but never being able to pay off the debt. Until they default on their debt.

We should have a state policy of having cash/gold equivalent of 1,5% of our own GDP up to 1 trillion USD. The amount beyond that can be regulated.

There should be a death sentence without trial for government and state officials who'd try to change laws to get their hands on that money or even overspending on budgets.

Some ppl keep saying oil and gas will disappear, and what are Gulf countries going to do, well they're investing and making sure they own a lot that yields a lot, so they can just live off interest and investments.

Does your parliament make law to set maximum rate of debt to GDP ratio and maximum budget deficit (% GDP) which should not be passed by any administration ?

I asked this because Indonesia has law like that. This law will make government become more responsible and prudent.
 

Nilgiri

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I think it requires special skills to save up a lot money and not use that rather than use money you don't have, and just print more.

There is a reason why Norways Oil Wealth Fund is not squandered away. I think they have a saying that every Norwegian born is a millionaire.

I was literally about to bring up Norway yup. But they have the institutional foresight and understanding to do it well, they have other solid parts of economy and good relationship with rest of nordic economies etc.

I just looked up Nauru, seems they are truly messed up now, all the funds are dried up from what they did do w.r.t Australia as they just didnt invest into anything institutionally or their people much etc.

They were 50,000 per capita USD in the 1970s damn man....(and I think they going by 1970s USD rather than now)

now they are less than 3k per capita USD...

So there you have it...another case of natural resource squandering....even with some hedging while they could to delay the fall.
 
T

Turko

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23 million turkish people have to live with 40 lira (5,5usd ) per day.
 

Saithan

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Does your parliament make law to set maximum rate of debt to GDP ratio and maximum budget deficit (% GDP) which should not be passed by any administration ?

I asked this because Indonesia has law like that. This law will make government become more responsible and prudent.
I do not believe so, not ever since the change to parliament system where the president could be part of a political party.

Before that the president was forced to leave political party and become neutral. So RTE and AKP really messed up the whole thing IMO.
 

Zafer

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A geo-politically rising Turkey cannot afford too much differing of opinion among its ruling class. Giving up (a part of) the presidents power will be disastrous in the end because that will be a return of the underperforming parliamentary style system which necessitates a military deep state rule from behind the scenes to prevent Turkey from collapsing by not only internal forces as in the '80's and '90's but also from external forces today.

The only thing Erdogan/AKP need to do is to make sure there are enough candidates that can take over the rule in a post-Erdogan era. The candidates most suited for this are Yildirim, Soylu and Oktay. But they need a bit more refining and an internal competition that doesn't damage the party too much.
When the system is well in place heading people will not be as important but the governing policy will count.
 

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