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According to the British magazine war over Taiwan is not imminent but Beijing is considering it
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan features on the cover of The Economist's latest issue due to its precarious future and the escalating arm-wrestling between the U.S. and China, as the two superpowers vie for dominance.
The cover picture places Taiwan in the center of a radar screen, sandwiched by the U.S. and China flags. The British magazine suggests that Taiwan's fate is at the mercy of the world's two superpowers.
Since former U.S. President Harry Truman announced the U.S. would defend Taiwan from being attacked by the Chinese regime after the Korean War broke out in 1950, the presence of the U.S. military in the region has deterred a potential all-out war between Taiwan and China — which are separated by about 130 kilometers and the Taiwan Strait.
However, the military deterrent of the U.S. has waned as China has over the past decades boosted its armed forces and weapons pile. A 25-year campaign of shipbuilding has given China's People’s Liberation Army Navy a fleet of 360 ships, outnumbering the U.S.' 297, The Economist pointed out.
According to the article, China's rhetoric toward Taiwan has sounded new notes of impatience, partly because of the collapse of the “one country, two systems” idea in Hong Kong over the past two years, and deepening distrust of Taiwanese toward Beijing. If China's leaders deem a peaceful unification impossible, they are authorized to move to force, under Chinese law.
During a Senate hearing in March 2021, the head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Phil Davidson warned that China's new warships, planes, and rockets aim to supplant the U.S. and its allies from their preeminent position in the world order. The admiral also believes the threat of China invading Taiwan is manifest and could happen within the next six years.
On the other hand, The Economist suggested China does not feel like a country on a war footing. Reports from high-level talks between the U.S. and Chinese officials in March indicated the Chinese had "inflexible talking points on Taiwan, but used no new language that showed unprecedented urgency."
The magazine concluded that though some scholars believe the Biden administration would take part in any war over Taiwan and deter an invasion by China, saying so could provoke the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to take rash action.
As for Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's air defense identification zone more than 270 times in recent times, a senior Taiwan diplomat told The Economist that it might be a test for the new Biden administration. Meanwhile, the Chinese will likely "continue to push" as it knows that Taiwan will not fire the first shot.
