Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

[Bogeyman]

Afghanistan 'possible' situation map after US withdrawal. It's also a source map for potential civil war in the country.

 

[Huelague]

Afghanistan 'possible' situation map after US withdrawal. It's also a source map for potential civil war in the country.

Imperialist will withdraw. Turks and Chinese will fill the gap. Hope Pakistan will follow.

 

[Agha Sher]

Map is completely wrong. Even the Taliban doesn't claim to hold that much territory.

The US has already withdrawn and they only support with some special forces raid and some airstrikes.

 

[Saithan]

Map is completely wrong. Even the Taliban doesn't claim to hold that much territory.

Thanks for clarifying that. I was really worried for a bit. But the situation in Afghanistan isn't easy. nonstop attacks by Taliban is a problem. I can understand why the US opted to use drones.

I imagine that holding a territory is difficult if you should be fortunate enough to take it from Taliban. But the clean up has to start someplace, and I think it has to be done by neighboring countries. e.g. Pakistan and such, but they have to get rid of the Taliban within their own borders first.

Afghanistan: Who controls what

Nearly 18 years after the fall of the Taliban in 2001, the armed group is still active across war-torn Afghanistan.

www.aljazeera.com

from 2019

 

[Saithan]

US forces hit Taliban with airstrikes as violence surges in Afghanistan despite peace talks

American forces conducted over the past couple days several airstrikes in support of Afghan security forces under attack by the Taliban in the southern...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[erickzhengauss]

For Tajikistan and Central Asia, provocations with foreign intervention on the border with Afghanistan can be a very serious test and threaten to turn the region into a real springboard for large-scale armed clashes between China and the United States.
Source

 

[Kaptaan]

I imagine that holding a territory is difficult if you should be fortunate enough to take it from Taliban. But the clean up has to start someplace, and I think it has to be done by neighboring countries. e.g. Pakistan

No external force will be able to erase Taliban in Afghanistan. You have to understand that Taliban in Afghanistan is as much a ethic Pakhtun movement as much as it is military or political. Think of IRA in Ulter. Whilst it had understones of historical Catholic versus Protestant rivalry it was more than that. The only differance is in this part of the world religion plays a bigger role so by definition the Taliban are more religious and orthodox in their views but let not any of that hide the blunt fact that it is in fact a Pakhtun nationalist movement dressed in religion.

The point of "not be able to erase" can be seen that after nearly 19 years of US war the Taliban are still standing - indeed standing tall. As you guys know I have little time for Islam but I actually support Taliban because they are a reality and will have to play a role in Afghanistan whether I, you or Americans or anybody else likes it.

If you notice all other parties in Afghanistan are also clustered around ethnic groups and the map makes that clear. Yellow Uzbeks, blue Tajiks, dirty pink Mongol Hazara, green can be taken as Pakhtuns.

Below ethnic map of Afghanistan.

And the reason why Pakistan is inexorably tied with Afghanistan with our shared ethnic groups. Whatever happens in Afghanistan always spills in to Pakistan.

 

[Kaptaan]

The US has already withdrawn and they only support with some special forces raid and some airstrikes.

No, they have not in practice. They still underpin the Kabul regime and provide the backbone and assurance finiancial, military or otherwise. This means if Taliban pull back US support ebbs but if Taliban push hard and start gaining ground US support begins to increase until Taliban are halted. Think of US as a pressure balance machine. This keeps the status quo intact. If all this was removed Kabul would fall within a a year as Kabul regime alliance made up of many warlords who have been bought out would switch sides as they know which direction the wind is blowing.

 

[Kaptaan]

Slightly off topic but there is not much underlying differance between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Just like Afghanistan Pakistan would have cracked along ethnic fractures. However because of the British era Pakistan Army and a urban middle class who are products of British rule [although they would violently deny this] make for a blocks that are sufficient to build a crude shape of a modern state.

You can see that in our military or ruling class. Most are products of elite British universities like Oxford or Cambridge like Imran Khan, Bhuttos etc

In fact the British era Aitchison College [similar to British Eton] almost provide most of the top political, administrative class in Pakistan. Other prestigious British era Catholic schools or Grammar schools produce the rest.

The religious rabble leadership that wants jihads, French lynced, women locked up are typically products of traditional madaris. Indeed the Afghan Taliban senior leadrship is also products of the same madaris and thus you see why there is such commonality across the border.

The only real differance is the % of Afghans who are educated in modern western institutions is tiny whereas in Pakistan it is relatively far higher - again a product of the historical British era.

 

[Saithan]

Slightly off topic but there is not much underlying differance between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Just like Afghanistan Pakistan would have cracked along ethnic fractures. However because of the British era Pakistan Army and a urban middle class who are products of British rule [although they would violently deny this] make for a blocks that are sufficient to build a crude shape of a modern state.

You can see that in our military or ruling class. Most are products of elite British universities like Oxford or Cambridge like Imran Khan, Bhuttos etc

In fact the British era Aitchison College [similar to British Eton] almost provide most of the top political, administrative class in Pakistan. Other prestigious British era Catholic schools or Grammar schools produce the rest.

The religious rabble leadership that wants jihads, French lynced, women locked up are typically products of traditional madaris. Indeed the Afghan Taliban senior leadrship is also products of the same madaris and thus you see why there is such commonality across the border.

The only real differance is the % of Afghans who are educated in modern western institutions is tiny whereas in Pakistan it is relatively far higher - again a product of the historical British era.

But if the the Afghans in Pakistan are better educated wouldn't they have a more moderate stance on national unity under Pakistan. Especially after looking at how the Taliban is exerting its influence in Afghanistan ?

I really think a Pakistan National school kindergarden to High school is necessary to streamline the education towards one national Identity.

E.g. like how China has done it, or how it was done in Turkey.

 

[Saithan]

Top Afghan official seeks Turkey's support for negotiations with Taliban

Top Afghan peace negotiator Abdullah Abdullah on Wednesday left for Ankara to garner Turkey's support for negotiations with the Taliban and discuss...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[Saithan]

Afghanistan conflict: Female judges shot dead in Kabul

The two women were killed on their way to work, amid a upsurge in violence and a US troop drawdown.

www.bbc.com

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360509776711585793

Footage from Taliban sniper from an attack on army base

 

[Kartal1]

A very interesting situation forming

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369704702301114375

 

[Saithan]

U.S. Spends $193 Billion over 20 Years on Military Presence in Afghanistan - C4 Defence

The United States calculated the cost to the budget of the nearly 20-year-old operation in Afghanistan.

www.c4defence.com

 

[Saithan]

Departure of foreign contractors from Afghanistan may be ‘devastating' for ANDSF effectiveness, warns SIGAR

The departure of thousands of foreign contractors from Afghanistan by 1 May, as stipulated in the February 2020 conditions-based US-Taliban agreement, may have a...

www.janes.com

 

[Bogeyman]

Afghan peace settlement meeting starts in Moscow​

Moscow on Thursday is hosting a new meeting on Afghan peace with the participation of China, the US, Pakistan, Afghan parties, and Qatar as an honorary guest.

Turkey has sent its representative to the meeting as well; Ambassador Hakan Tekin, director general for South Asia at the Turkish Foreign Ministry, is attending the meeting.

The Kabul side is represented by a delegation of the High Council for National Reconciliation, which is headed by its chairman Abdullah Abdullah.

Also joining the meeting is the 10-people Taliban delegation headed by Abdul Ghani Baradar, the group’s deputy leader.

Initially, it was planned as a meeting of troika on the Afghan reconciliation, which includes Russia, China and the US. The trio also invited Pakistan "as a player having influence on both sides."

Later Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov invited Qatar – a country that served as a mediator between the warring Afghan sides for quite a long time, and it also hosted several rounds of the talks between the US and the Taliban on the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan.

According to Lavrov, the Moscow meeting was organized "to help solve the problems that arose in the Doha negotiations and to encourage the parties to be more cooperative through informal, free discussions, and confidential conversations."

Currently the Afghan sides face a snag provoked by the US policy change on Afghanistan.

On Feb. 29, 2020, the Taliban signed an agreement with the US, which suggests the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan within 14 months. The period expires on May 1.

However, new US President Joe Biden has a different view on the Afghan crisis and does not hurry to pull out the US troops.

In an interview with the public TV channel ABC, Biden said the withdrawal is possible, but difficult to implement.

If the US fails to fulfill their part of the agreement, it can lead to a new crisis, Andrey Serenko, Russian political expert on Afghanistan, told Anadolu Agency.

"Currently the sides are confused and lost, they don't know what to expect and they don't know to what to prepare. If the US doesn't withdraw its troops, the Taliban most probably will start a new offensive. Who will be the principal target – the Afghan or US troops – has not been clear so far. The Afghan army is also preparing to resume hostilities," Serenko said.

He also criticized Russia for not inviting India to the meeting, stressing that India is a very influential stakeholder and the meeting will not be "inclusive" without it.

"In this sense, we can expect the meeting in Istanbul, scheduled for March 27, will be more effective and fruitful," Serenko said.

The US invaded Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, and the 19 years of US involvement plus related conflicts have cost the lives of over 100,000 civilians and forced millions to flee their homes. The UN has repeatedly urged that opportunities for peace in the region should be seized.

Afghan peace settlement meeting starts in Moscow

Turkey sends its representatives to meeting in Russian capital attended by China, US, Pakistan, Afghan parties, and Qatar - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[Ryder]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384138746157670407

Taliban vs Isis is getting heated up.

Islamists killing each other. This is not the first time lots of islamist groups fight each other due to various factors.

 

[Ecderha]

Invaders russia and usa were repelled by Afghanistan/Taliban, I really RESPECT those ppl.
They fought against all odds to get they country back from PLAGUE for the world russia and usa
Now turn is of external groups which have own agenda, different from "house owner" Afghanistan/Taliban.
It is the war to kick out all invaders.

 

[Kaptaan]

Invaders russia and usa were repelled by Afghanistan/Taliban, I really RESPECT those ppl.
They fought against all odds to get they country back from PLAGUE for the world russia and usa
Now turn is of external groups which have own agenda, different from "house owner" Afghanistan/Taliban.
It is the war to kick out all invaders.

Although I disagree profoundly with my Pakhtun brothers of Taliban in Afghanistan on account of their religious beliefs which clash with my secular outlook, however these men are the bravest of the brave. They are warriors. Holding a rusty AK-47, a RPG launcher and wearing chappels with a Pakol [a local headwear worn in Af-Pak region which resembles a beret] on their heads they took on the mighty Red Army and defeated it. Now after 20 years fighting US Army they have prevailed.