Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

[Saithan]

I would not be so sure about the ATAKs. The fact is access into Afghanistan will require Pakistan. The Central Asians are under too much Russian and Chinese influence. I can't see Iran acting as US conduit. That like for the past 40 years leaves Pakistan.

The problem is Pakistan sold itself short in 2001. The value anybody gives you is often pedicated on how much you value yourself. Women will sell their privacy for £5 whereas some would rather die. Musharaf the dictator back in 2001 was desperate as he had no political support within Pakistan. So when USA came knocking he said "yes" for pennies. But for his own rule the pennies were good enough because it gave him legitimacy as he got to hang around President Bush.

So going forward we will see what happens. I know there are intense discussions going on begind the scenes and the Pakistan point man is NSA Moeed Yousef a brilliant mind and highly capable individual. In fact he was resesarch student at Harvard Universities Kennedy School and then Associate Vice President at United States Institute of Peace, Washington DC. He knows the Americans well.

So personally I am expecting hard bargaining and trust the team under Prime Minister Khan will navigate the best policy for Pakistan.

I imagine that the US might end up leaving some of the gear behind if not most if they reach some kind of a deal no matter how small it is. They have to start churning up some butter.

I think the border fence, that was started is still progressing. Though I know the border is quite long and the fence might not be the most effective solution.

Still would it be possible to build a wall like Turkey did on some parts ?

 

[mulj]

You have no idea my friend the destruction, loss and suffering Pakistan has borne since 9/11 and invasion of Afghanistan. Non of the 9/11 hijackers were Pakistani. They were Saudi, Egyptian, Jordanian and Lebanese. Yet non of those countries suffered for the 9/11 attacks. The primary victim was the Afghan people followed by Pakistan. There never was any suicide bombers in Pakistan before that. In fact I associated suicide bombing with Hindu Tiger Tamils of Sri Lanka.

Then it all began. From 2001 to about 2014 Pakistan got caught in the eye of the storm as the war spilled over into Pakistan. Across the globe Pakistan's image was battered by being associated with terrorism. Our neighbour of course used this opportunity to really rake this by calling us "terroristan" etc.

But I am overjoyed we are coming out of this hell now. And as PM Imran Khan said we will never ever get involved in other peoples wars. And it was not like USA appreciated Pakistan for the price it has paid.

Here are two interviews of PM Imran Khan back in 2014 on the subject of War on Terror, Taliban, Afghanistan and Pakistan. They are really instructive on what is happening and how things might pan out particularly as now Imran Khan is the Prime Minister and has direct influence on Afghanistan, USA and the region./

Lets hope that afganistan manage to come to the peace conditioms swiftly and without prolonged civil war, not sure if india and iran will looo that with absolute approval as far as pakistan is concerned that is to much in your favour and you know how the things goes from there.

 

[mulj]

I imagine that the US might end up leaving some of the gear behind if not most if they reach some kind of a deal no matter how small it is. They have to start churning up some butter.

I think the border fence, that was started is still progressing. Though I know the border is quite long and the fence might not be the most effective solution.

Still would it be possible to build a wall like Turkey did on some parts ?

Fence should be good enough with good surveillance, turkey could provide some hardware and share expirience to make it easier for pakistan border guarding.

 

[Blank1]

I imagine that the US might end up leaving some of the gear behind if not most if they reach some kind of a deal no matter how small it is. They have to start churning up some butter.

I think the border fence, that was started is still progressing. Though I know the border is quite long and the fence might not be the most effective solution.

Still would it be possible to build a wall like Turkey did on some parts ?

About US gear, that is complicated, some is lost in TIME in the past 20 years e.g few or so years earlier large number of US shipments to Afghanistan were burned on many occasions, some never arrived to their destined location etc & there was some media reaction.
US is working around the clock to get every thing out of Afghanistan and unwanted ammo / which cant be dragged out is blown.

Border fence is almost complete paired with a trench in some regions and some 150+ Forts (There are total of 843 border forts but not all can be considered as FORTS). Fence will do just fine for Pakistan and there is no need for bored wall.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1261329738603401219

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1391515849186549760

 

[Blank1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400055979593633808

 

[Blank1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400036387450232833

 

[Blank1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399953311151894529

Google translate :
Taliban: Last night, 3 mercenary enemy checkpoints were captured in Terli Kendo area of Deh Bala district of Nangarhar province.
25 police officers and Arbaki were killed and many more were injured.
Also, 30 light and heavy weapons and lot of ammunition fell into the hands of the Mojahedin.
During the battle, 2 Mujahideen were also wounded.

 

[Blank1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399775654623649792

Three government vehicles were destroyed by Taliban's

 

[mulj]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400036387450232833

Probably better then they fiercly resisted and prolonged war, like them or not but by my opinion swift and fast talibans victory is best option Afganistan has on table.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400408065804058625

According to Afghan government sources, Turkey has taken over the operation of Kabul airport under an agreement reached with NATO. Security at Kabul airport will be ensured despite the US withdrawal.

 

[Blank1]

Heavy civilian casualties in the name of Taliban's, government forces are reporting 20 Taliban's KIA when they were targeted during a gathering by Afghan airforce.

215 corps under the command of Sayed Sami Sadat ordered aerial forces to target civilians in Yakhchal area of Nahr-e-Siraj Helmand Province. At least 30 men (elders, boys & youngsters) killed & over 50 injured. Injured civilians were transferred to Kandahar, Lashkargah and nearby hospitals.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400756678342156289

 

[Blank1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400782368420544518

Captured weapons by Taliban's

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400711081069268993

Google translate :
Last night, during the conquest of a large mercenary enemy base in the Faizabad district of Jawzjan, tens of light and heavy weapons fell into the hands of the Mujahideen.

 

[Blank1]

Recently abandoned base of Afghan army captured and scavenged

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400691306037399553

 

[Blank1]

Last two days in Afghanistan
- Shanki district of Zabul province
- Farsi district of Herat province
- Gizab district of Daykindy province
- Hassan Karez Military base in Shah Joy district of Zabul province
- Military base in Faizabad district Jozjan province
Were captured by Taliban's And large number of desertion in Afghan army and police ranks.

 

[Blank1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400708389487976451

Translation :
In Nahr-e-Saraj of Helmand province, a large battalion named Farooq, of the mercenary army was completely conquered. Habib-ur-Rehman Kunari, the savage commander of the battalion was killed with 10 of his men, while 8 were captured alive.

 

[Blank1]

Some footage of the surrendered troops

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400489082392772608

 

[Blank1]

So US and NATO is leaving Afghanistan, There is some chatter of US wanting Turkey to host peace talks and also want Turks to stay behind so they can gloat about some thing.
As Afghanistan is rich with colossal amount of minerals particularly Badakhshan province which is brimming with gold.
Soviets tried, they had minor success in some gas fields, US and NATO also tried their luck but things weren't in their favour. China has a desire to come to Afghanistan backed by their buddy Pakistan to tap in massive copper mines.
Isn't it the right time under all the circumstances for Turkey to grab hold of the situation, If Taliban's came to power (By the looks of it they eventually will), Mr Tayyip Erdogan can use his religious charm to deal / convince the Taliban's, Build some schools, hospitals and mosques etc
And oh! they have no debt at all, There is some 1+ billion $ according to google but Taliban's don't buy it.
what's Turkey higher hierarchy thinks about it ? and whats your opinion ?
@Saithan, @Bogeyman & @Kartal1

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1400691966543908873

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399669294259130368

 

[Kartal1]

So US and NATO is leaving Afghanistan, There is some chatter of US wanting Turkey to host peace talks and also want Turks to stay behind so they can gloat about some thing.
As Afghanistan is rich with colossal amount of minerals particularly Badakhshan province which is brimming with gold.
Soviets tried, they had minor success in some gas fields, US and NATO also tried their luck but things weren't in their favour. China has a desire to come to Afghanistan backed by their buddy Pakistan to tap in massive copper mines.
Isn't it the right time under all the circumstances for Turkey to grab hold of the situation, If Taliban's came to power (By the looks of it they eventually will), Mr Tayyip Erdogan can use his religious charm to deal / convince the Taliban's, Build some schools, hospitals and mosques etc
And oh! they have no debt at all, There is some 1+ billion $ according to google but Taliban's don't buy it.
what's Turkey higher hierarchy thinks about it ? and whats your opinion ?
@Saithan, @Bogeyman & @Kartal1

From the first day of Turkey's ISAF involvement Turkey haves different approach at Afghanistan. Turkey trough its involvement took critical command tasks as command of ISAF, Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) Wardak, Kabul Airport Command, Regional Command Capital (Turkey is still running the Train Advice Assist Command- Capital after the RCC was reconstructed) and is actively participating with its personnel in the HQs of other command structures.

Turkey declined participation in combat operations in Afghanistan. The main objectives in Turkey in Afghanistan is provide security to the capital Kabul and involve in humanitarian aid. Turkey is leading its own training center providing training to the security forces in the capital. Turkey is also a major contributor with aid program of 1.1 billion dollars. Between 2018-2020 Turkey provided 60 million dollars of aid. Turkish business is developing relations and providing Afghanistan with hygiene and cleaning products. TIKA with its efforts opened a 168 water wells and supplied clean drinking water to more than 500.000 Afghani citizens (2013). In 2005 a healthcare agreement was signed providing the possibility of healthcare education to Afghanis and possibility for Turkish and Afghanistan healthcare personnel to serve in the other country's healthcare system. Turkey established multiple hospitals where Afghani health personnel are receiving training. Turkey also is training Afghani police officers in Turkish academies. Tens of schools are also built by TIKA where millions of Afghani youth received education.

Turkey followed a route of a soft power rather than violence and is acting differently to its Western partners. The results are there and there are many Afghanis that respect the Turkish initiative. Organizations like TIKA, Turkish Red Crescent play a critical role in the whole process. It is a known fact that there were cases where NATO troops were putting Turkish flags in order not to get attacked. Turkey also supported Dostum and tried to keep the same distance to all the tribes and their leaders. Turkey vocally expressed its concerns over the drug traffic in Afghanistan and even provided other ways for income and also aids to the tribes in order to try and cut that malign practice. Turkish intelligence played important role in the relationship with Dostum and also managed to win positions for Turkey in the hearths and minds of tribal leaders. Turkey also managed to maintain neutral position towards the Afghani internal affairs and also managed to keep ties with the Taliban on a good level. There were many Turks that were kidnapped during their humanitarian work by Taliban but they were all rescued with the good will of Taliban and the initiatives of the Afghani and Turkish intelligence. Afghanistan authorities are also cooperating with Turkey on security matters including FETO terrorist organization and there are no problems with them.

When we take all these things into consideration, the Turkish soft power and the achievement that Turkey made with its neutrality I think the prospects of the Afghanistan-Turkey relationship is very good. Even if Taliban grab the power in Afghanistan I don't think it will surely negatively impact the relationship. For me the unknown part in all this is what position Dostum will have in possible Taliban ruled Afghanistan. Will Dostum allow a Taliban rule? Will Turkey ditch Dostum and keep ties with Taliban or take a stance against the Taliban in favor of Dostum? We know Dostum have a mercantile side in his character and we know that he also is a fighter. We know that in his controlled areas there is another much more secular law and Dostum is known for his secular point of view. Will people living under Dostum allow Taliban rule? What is the possibility of Afghanistan disintegrating and Uzbek territories to declare independence (we know that there were people in Uzbekistan considering that in the past acting as a buffer State). With this uncertainty its hard to make a conclusion. Afghanistan is a tough topic with all its ethnical diversity, tribal wars, government structure etc. It is really hard to predict what will happen in such environment.

 

[Kaptaan]

Like I said

Whatever happens I can tell you one thing with 100% certitude. India's position in Afghanistan which was established on the back of US invasion of Afghanistan is about to degrade. The only question is to what degree. But degrade it will.

Things regionally from POV of Pakistan are very differant from 2001. Pakistan is in far better position.

• it has a competent government in power with much of the planning being done by National Security Advisor Moeed Youself a illumini of Harvard University and worked in American think tank in Washington before he took his post as NSA to PM Imran Khan.
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• Pakistan will NOT be providing bases or any other platform to USA after pullout. PM Imran Khan has flatl refused. Afghanistan is a landlocked country with it's front door facing Pakistan. PM Imran Khan has always had respect for Taliban going back decades.
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• Besides Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, Russia, China are crucial as they are geographic neighbours and I would include Turkey as well. Russia has Central Asian states as mediums. Turkey has influence on the large Turkic population of Afghanistan particularly General Dostum.
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• NSA Moeed Yousef is planning on corralling Iran, Turkey, Central Asia/Russia and China in a effort to build a combined policy on Afghanistan. Unlike 2001 Pakistan has good relations with Iran, Central Asia. Putin is expected to visit Pakistan soon. President of Tajikistan was in Pakistan just two days ago and talks centred on around trade and Afghanistan. With Turkey and China you already know things are cool.
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• The emphasis will be to combine all these regional countries and focus on opening trade corridors.

And the good news is the Radcliffe line will continue to seal off India and Indian variants to the east.

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