TR Oil & Gas Exploration Update & Discussion

Saithan

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In the first phase, 10 wells will be drilled. Sakarya gas field ( which belongs to the Danube basin) is very big and contains several areas. Amasra-1(135 billion cubic meters) well is located in a different area than the Tuna-1(405 billion cubic meters) well and one of our seismic vessels conducts studies in a different gas field (Kastamonu) in the Blacksea.

There are 3 different possible scenarios. There might be a huge single gas reservoir, there might be several reservoirs that are connected to each other or there might be several reservoirs independent of each other. We know that the Tuna-1 reserve and Amasra-1 reserve belong to the same geological formation(Danube Basin) and to the same gas field(Sakarya gas field) but we don't know if they are connected to each other in any way.

I expect upward revisions to continue as we drill more wells. I have big hopes for the area and I think total reserves will reach 1 trillion cubic meters. But extraction process will be extremely difficult. We will run one of the hardest deep-sea extraction operations in the world at 2300 meters deep and in a high H2S concentration.


gaz%20sahalar%C4%B1(1).jpg
I really hope that becomes true. Though I think we need smart grid and smart investments to maximize our gains.


In the past drillings and low yield resulted in the holes getting plugged.
 

Deliorman

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Watched some TRT Haber yesterday and this is what the “experts” in the studio tried to explain too- It might be more expensive than imported gas but the money will stay in our country instead of going abroad.

That sounds okay to me as a strategy but go and explain it to the citizens when their bills get even bigger than now- Well guys, We have a lot of gas now and we extract it all by ourselves but you will pay more in the end. 😁

People won’t like it at all.
 

Timur

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Watched some TRT Haber yesterday and this is what the “experts” in the studio tried to explain too- It might be more expensive than imported gas but the money will stay in our country instead of going abroad.

That sounds okay to me as a strategy but go and explain it to the citizens when their bills get even bigger than now- Well guys, We have a lot of gas now and we extract it all by ourselves but you will pay more in the end. 😁

People won’t like it at all.
if you remove the taxes it may be ok
 

Timur

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Good luck with that because in Turkey nearly everything has tax and the constant burden of zam over zam.

we pay at least 90cent taxes for every liter of fuel in germany , tomatoes, milk, meat, sucuk, and so on doubled their prices since euro.. only electronical devices were cheap but I wont buy a fridge or TV every year.. man its so bad here we even pay more for medicine and cars while they were sold cheaper outside the country..

most of the zam is due to inflation in turkey.. (while the peoples income are not adjusted)
 
T

Turko

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And this is why the gas is going to be expensive.i
I really wonder today how much will it cost to us drilling?

They must declare the drilling costs

Because European countries buy gas two times cheaper than us.
If the new costs are higher than we buy, it will just bring burden on consumers. Nonetheless it will make some contractors richer.


İnstead of buying 120usd , is it really reasonable to drill it 300/350usd?
1622888971680.png

 
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Bogeyman 

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Turkey's gas discoveries in Black Sea could cut annual import bill by $6B​


Turkey's gas discoveries in the Black Sea will reduce the country's annual gas import bill by $6 billion with a 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) production per year, the head of the Natural Gas Distribution Companies Association of Turkey (GAZBIR) said on Friday.

The country continued drilling testing wells after the Fatih drillship's giant discovery of 405 bcm in the Tuna-1 well located in the Sakarya gas field, around 170 kilometers off the Black Sea last year.

It was the largest offshore gas discovery in the world last year while it was the second-largest in overall discoveries.

"The amount of 10 biggest gas discoveries in the world last year was about 3.2 trillion cubic meters," Yasar Arslan told Anadolu Agency, adding that the United Arab Emirates found the biggest discovery reaching 2.3 trillion cubic meters while Russia discovered 220 bcm.

After Turkey's 405 bcm gas discovery in the Black Sea, Fatih drilled the Turkali-1 and Turkali-2 testing wells along with the Amasra-1 well, which is an exploration well located in the northern part of the Sakarya gas field.

Fatih is currently drilling the testing well of Turkali-3 while another drillship, Kanuni, is carrying out completion tests in the Turkali-2 well.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Friday that the Fatih drillship discovered 135 bcm in the Amasra-1 well, which increases Turkey's gas discoveries in the Black Sea up to 540 bcm.

"Production of 15 bcm from Tuna-1 discovery could meet 30% of Turkey's annual gas need which was 48.2 bcm in 2020. It would also meet all of the household need for 25 years," Arslan noted, adding that the new gas find is sufficient enough to meet Turkey's total gas need for three years.

"The new discovery in the Amasra-1 well at the water depth of 1,938 meters and 3,850 meters total depth, will also be included in the Sakarya Gas Field Development Project. The project includes the construction of seabed gas production systems, a gas processing center within the Filyos industrial zone, and pipelines to connect those units," Turkish Petroleum (TPAO), Turkey's national oil company, said in a statement on the new gas find.

Melih Han Bilgin, chairman and CEO of TPAO, said the new discovery in the "world-class" western Black Sea basin, the Sakarya gas field, has a potential to support additional developments.

Production to fractionally increase

The first gas production from the Sakarya gas field is planned for 2023. As a start, the daily gas production from the field will be around 10 million cubic meters which corresponds to 3.5 bcm annually and the production will increase gradually to its plateau level.

He said that the maximum production potential in the Black Sea could increase up to 20 bcm per year with the new discovery.

"In total with Tuna-1 and Amasra-1 discoveries, Turkey's natural gas import bill could reduce by $5-6 billion when production rises to the plateau level of 20 bcm," Arslan said.

Around 155 kilometers of pipeline will be built underneath the sea till Filyos onshore in Zonguldak, a port city in the Black Sea.

Turkish Petroleum will invest 780 million Turkish lira only in the production and transmission facilities in relation to the field although the overall investment volume in the Sakarya gas field is not publicly announced.

The pipeline will carry the natural gas that will be produced underneath the sea to the gas processing facility of which ground breaking ceremony was held Friday in Filyos industrial zone.

Following the processing, the gas will flow into Turkey's gas distribution system.

Discoveries to trigger investments in Turkey's gas sector

Palzor Shenga, vice president for upstream research and analysis at Norway-based Rystad Energy, said the Kanuni drillship is scheduled to conduct well testing in Amasra-1 well hence providing some insight on the productivity of the reservoir encountered.

"Nevertheless, if proven, in combination to the additional resource from future discoveries, it will trigger significant investments in Turkey’s gas sector. The development of the deep-water field will help to meet Turkey’s increasing demand for natural gas," Shenga said.

Turkey is currently dependent on gas imports to meet its demand as domestic production meets 1% of the country's gas need.

"The gas is mainly imported from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan. Rystad Energy also estimates the breakeven price for these fields to be between $3.00 and $3.50 per MMBtu, competitively better than the imported gas. Thus, will aid in substantial reduction to the country’s import costs," Shenga stated.

"Furthermore, although Turkey’s path towards energy self-sufficiency remains very long and uncertain, the country’s newfound hope that low-cost discoveries are feasible will pave the way for further exploration and development programs," he said, pointing out that it is an exciting time for the Black Sea, a frontier basin which has for long not delivered to its expected potential.
 
T

Turko

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510 USD ??? Someone should answer it!

Are we going to buy natural gas by 510usd which is 4 time more expensive than international market.



 

Bogeyman 

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510 USD ??? Someone should answer it!

Are we going to buy natural gas by 510usd which is 4 time more expensive than international market.



The Norwegians already answered your question upstairs.
 
T

Turko

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thumbs_b_c_133d35d5c26054f0d4f7cd531865debb.jpg

Turkey's gas discoveries in Black Sea could cut annual import bill by $6B​


Turkey's gas discoveries in the Black Sea will reduce the country's annual gas import bill by $6 billion with a 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) production per year, the head of the Natural Gas Distribution Companies Association of Turkey (GAZBIR) said on Friday.

The country continued drilling testing wells after the Fatih drillship's giant discovery of 405 bcm in the Tuna-1 well located in the Sakarya gas field, around 170 kilometers off the Black Sea last year.

It was the largest offshore gas discovery in the world last year while it was the second-largest in overall discoveries.

"The amount of 10 biggest gas discoveries in the world last year was about 3.2 trillion cubic meters," Yasar Arslan told Anadolu Agency, adding that the United Arab Emirates found the biggest discovery reaching 2.3 trillion cubic meters while Russia discovered 220 bcm.

After Turkey's 405 bcm gas discovery in the Black Sea, Fatih drilled the Turkali-1 and Turkali-2 testing wells along with the Amasra-1 well, which is an exploration well located in the northern part of the Sakarya gas field.

Fatih is currently drilling the testing well of Turkali-3 while another drillship, Kanuni, is carrying out completion tests in the Turkali-2 well.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Friday that the Fatih drillship discovered 135 bcm in the Amasra-1 well, which increases Turkey's gas discoveries in the Black Sea up to 540 bcm.

"Production of 15 bcm from Tuna-1 discovery could meet 30% of Turkey's annual gas need which was 48.2 bcm in 2020. It would also meet all of the household need for 25 years," Arslan noted, adding that the new gas find is sufficient enough to meet Turkey's total gas need for three years.

"The new discovery in the Amasra-1 well at the water depth of 1,938 meters and 3,850 meters total depth, will also be included in the Sakarya Gas Field Development Project. The project includes the construction of seabed gas production systems, a gas processing center within the Filyos industrial zone, and pipelines to connect those units," Turkish Petroleum (TPAO), Turkey's national oil company, said in a statement on the new gas find.

Melih Han Bilgin, chairman and CEO of TPAO, said the new discovery in the "world-class" western Black Sea basin, the Sakarya gas field, has a potential to support additional developments.

Production to fractionally increase

The first gas production from the Sakarya gas field is planned for 2023. As a start, the daily gas production from the field will be around 10 million cubic meters which corresponds to 3.5 bcm annually and the production will increase gradually to its plateau level.

He said that the maximum production potential in the Black Sea could increase up to 20 bcm per year with the new discovery.

"In total with Tuna-1 and Amasra-1 discoveries, Turkey's natural gas import bill could reduce by $5-6 billion when production rises to the plateau level of 20 bcm," Arslan said.

Around 155 kilometers of pipeline will be built underneath the sea till Filyos onshore in Zonguldak, a port city in the Black Sea.

Turkish Petroleum will invest 780 million Turkish lira only in the production and transmission facilities in relation to the field although the overall investment volume in the Sakarya gas field is not publicly announced.

The pipeline will carry the natural gas that will be produced underneath the sea to the gas processing facility of which ground breaking ceremony was held Friday in Filyos industrial zone.

Following the processing, the gas will flow into Turkey's gas distribution system.

Discoveries to trigger investments in Turkey's gas sector

Palzor Shenga, vice president for upstream research and analysis at Norway-based Rystad Energy, said the Kanuni drillship is scheduled to conduct well testing in Amasra-1 well hence providing some insight on the productivity of the reservoir encountered.

"Nevertheless, if proven, in combination to the additional resource from future discoveries, it will trigger significant investments in Turkey’s gas sector. The development of the deep-water field will help to meet Turkey’s increasing demand for natural gas," Shenga said.

Turkey is currently dependent on gas imports to meet its demand as domestic production meets 1% of the country's gas need.

"The gas is mainly imported from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan. Rystad Energy also estimates the breakeven price for these fields to be between $3.00 and $3.50 per MMBtu, competitively better than the imported gas. Thus, will aid in substantial reduction to the country’s import costs," Shenga stated.

"Furthermore, although Turkey’s path towards energy self-sufficiency remains very long and uncertain, the country’s newfound hope that low-cost discoveries are feasible will pave the way for further exploration and development programs," he said, pointing out that it is an exciting time for the Black Sea, a frontier basin which has for long not delivered to its expected potential.
We are looking forward to hearing from officials not from Norwegians however those costs will increase gas bill for Turkish consumers or bring burden on National budget.
While Germany buying gas for 120usd , how can we speak about cutting gas bill.
 

Bogeyman 

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We are looking forward to hearing from officials not from Norwegians however those costs will increase gas bill for Turkish consumers or bring burden on National budget.
While Germany buying gas for 120usd , how can we speak about cutting gas bill.
Because Turkey's contracts with countries that import natural gas expire in 2021. Gas reserves discovered by Turkey give us a bargaining chip for lowering the price in new deals
 
T

Turko

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Because Turkey's contracts with countries that import natural gas expire in 2021. Gas reserves discovered by Turkey give us a bargaining chip for lowering the price in new deals
Last five years Even Ukraine bought reversed gas from Europe for 200 usd.
Why did our politicians make bad bargains with supplier?


So having signed cheaper gas deal , is Turkey stopping drilling gas which just creates additional expenses?

Why would you drill gas per 350/500 USD if you were able to buy for 120usd?
 
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Bogeyman 

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Last five years Even Ukraine bought reversed gas from Europe for 200 usd.
Why did our politicians make bad bargains with supplier?


So having signed cheaper gas deal , is Turkey stopping drilling gas which just creates additional costs?
Critical year in natural gas: Turkey demands flexibility, discount on contracts
29.12.2020



A significant portion of Turkey's long-term natural gas contracts will expire in 2021, which is described as a critical threshold for the Turkish natural gas sector. Flexibility in the contract structure and price reduction in the process of renegotiating these contracts are one of the demands of Turkey.

As of the end of this year, 15.9 billion cubic meters of Turkey's long-term and oil-price-indexed natural gas contracts, which stand at 58 billion cubic meters, expire in 2021. This is expected to be decisive next year in terms of sector and natural gas costs.

The 6.6 billion cubic meter gas contract of oil transport Aş (BOTAŞ) with Azerbaijan by pipelines will expire in April 2021. Botas ' contract for 4 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with Russian company Gazprom and 1.3 billion cubic meters with Nigeria will also expire at the end of 2021.

The 4 billion cubic meter contracts that BOTAŞ transferred to the private sector in 2007 will be completed at the end of next year.

Meanwhile, the fate of Qatar's 2.1 billion cubic meter LNG contract, which ended in September this year, is expected to be clear in the New Year.

Thus, a total of 11.4 billion cubic meters of gas contracts with Russia, Qatar and Nigeria are likely to be renewed. That represents 20 per cent of Turkey's total gas contracts.

As Turkey's natural gas contract negotiations with Russia continue, at the beginning of the demands of BOTAŞ and private sector companies in these negotiations is the creation of a flexible contract structure based on formulas indexed to prices in international trade centers and a reduction in prices.

"2021 is a critical threshold"

Volkan Yiğit, a partner at the consulting firm APLUS Energy, told Reuters that 2021 is a critical threshold for long-term natural gas contracts from energy sector stakeholders and government agencies.

Yiğit stated that Turkey's investments in LNG infrastructure in recent years are important steps in terms of resource diversity and flexibility, "on the other hand, increasing the volume of storage facilities every year will increase the flexibility of the system and allow us to take advantage of low price periods. The first of the fruits of this strategy was in the second quarter, when LNG prices fell to the lowest level in history this year, and by making a large amount of our supply with LNG, we have reduced our gas cost and made gains that will strengthen our hand in contract negotiations., "he said.

Yiğit said that" buy or pay " obligations in Turkey's existing natural gas contracts and restrictions on the inability to export natural gas to another country are an obstacle.:

"In this respect, a flexible contract structure is one of the most important demands of Turkey. Another expectation from the negotiations is a possible discount on the sale price of natural gas. Whether this expectation will apply only to contracts that will end, and whether it will apply to ongoing Russian gas contracts will come as a result of negotiations. One element that supports our expectation of a discount is the 40 percent discount that Russia finally provided to Bulgaria this new year. As Russia continued these negotiations with other European countries, it had to make significant discounts. Of course, our country's relations with Russia are not limited only to natural gas trade. We also have to think about political issues with the ongoing Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant project, defense industry cooperation and supply agreements. For this reason, it is unfortunately impossible to comment only by thinking about the dynamics of the energy market, but I am hopeful of negotiations. At the very least, I expect favorable conditions to be met for contracts that will be renewed. I look at the renewal of at least half of the 8 billion cubic meter natural gas contract with Russia. For the other half, I think the bargaining process is more critical. I think that these negotiations and the outcome will also be a reference for the 16 billion cubic meter Blue Stream contract, which will be completed in 2025."

Lowest gas purchase cost in first quarter of 2021

Yiğit noted that the change in oil prices in oil-indexed contracts is reflected in gas prices, coming from 6 to 9 months behind, after the decline in oil prices this year, the price of gas imports, which is at $ 285 per 1000 cubic meters in 2019, fell to $ 210 this year, he said.

Indicating that this figure will fall to $ 170 for 1000 cubic meters, reaching the lowest level of recent periods in the first quarter of 2021, Yiğit said that they expect gas prices to increase after this period, indexed to the price of oil, and at the end of 2021, the price for 1000 cubic meters will rise above $ 200.

Yiğit noted that the contract with Azerbaijan was renewed with a new capacity of 6 billion cubic meters imported within the scope of the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline project.

Record LNG imports

"Even if we think that our long-term contracts have fallen to 40 billion cubic meters, we have a system that can easily manage the missing part with spot LNG imports," said Yiğit, who said that technically, when Turkey's LNG capacity is taken into account, all contracts that will end in 2021 may not need to be renewed. So much so that we have set a new record in this area by importing about 12 billion cubic meters of LNG in 9 months of 2020, and this shows how valuable the strategic investments we mentioned above are in terms of the flexibility of our system." said.

Yiğit noted that the share of LNG in Turkey's total natural gas imports is steadily increasing.:

"Kovid-19 outbreaks during periods of declining LNG prices to the lowest level in the history of the most intense, the expectation of economic recovery, vaccines developments in arbitrage opportunities between markets and natural gas use for heating in the winter due to the increase in shipping because of the difficulty in finding upward trend in recent months gone again. In fact, this volatility in the markets has allowed Turkey to better demonstrate the place of LNG in its gas strategy. Our greatest expectation at the point of renewing long-term contracts is that contracts can be signed that will give us flexibility, in other words, the removal or easing of obligations such as buy or pay."

"From the point of view of security of supply, no problem"

Gökhan Yardım, partner and company director of ADG Anadolu natural gas consulting company, emphasized the importance of flexible contract structure and stated that Turkey, in parallel with the developments in the world gas market, demanded that "prices be determined based on prices focused on the Centers determined in the free market rather than oil prices".

"When we think about our LNG infrastructure and the discovery in the Black Sea, this issue will not be a problem, but it needs to be approached from the point of view of neighborly relations. Both sides have to be willing., "he said.

The aid stressed that Turkey's LNG infrastructure is gaining great importance in terms of energy supply security, noting that Turkey is taking advantage of cheap LNG opportunities.
 
E

Era_shield

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Watched some TRT Haber yesterday and this is what the “experts” in the studio tried to explain too- It might be more expensive than imported gas but the money will stay in our country instead of going abroad.

That sounds okay to me as a strategy but go and explain it to the citizens when their bills get even bigger than now- Well guys, We have a lot of gas now and we extract it all by ourselves but you will pay more in the end. 😁

People won’t like it at all.
Might be expensive in today's world. In a few years when an oil tanker won't be able to travel the open ocean without military escort, everyone will be very glad we have this option of drilling our own gas, and it will be much cheaper compared to other options at that time.
 
T

Turko

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Might be expensive in today's world. In a few years when an oil tanker won't be able to travel the open ocean without military escort, everyone will be very glad we have this option of drilling our own gas, and it will be much cheaper compared to other options at that time.
Most of our gas import via pipeline, what does oil tanker have to do with it?
 

Anmdt

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Loss of safe and cheap global shipping will raise the cost for everyone, even if we're getting our supply from pipelines.
This means extreme conditions are needed to make this reserve feasible.
It is actually the proof of it is not being feasible in an open market.
 

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