Last five years Even Ukraine bought reversed gas from Europe for 200 usd.
Why did our politicians make bad bargains with supplier?
So having signed cheaper gas deal , is Turkey stopping drilling gas which just creates additional costs?
Critical year in natural gas: Turkey demands flexibility, discount on contracts
29.12.2020
A significant portion of Turkey's long-term natural gas contracts will expire in 2021, which is described as a critical threshold for the Turkish natural gas sector. Flexibility in the contract structure and price reduction in the process of renegotiating these contracts are one of the demands of Turkey.
As of the end of this year, 15.9 billion cubic meters of Turkey's long-term and oil-price-indexed natural gas contracts, which stand at 58 billion cubic meters, expire in 2021. This is expected to be decisive next year in terms of sector and natural gas costs.
The 6.6 billion cubic meter gas contract of oil transport Aş (BOTAŞ) with Azerbaijan by pipelines will expire in April 2021. Botas ' contract for 4 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with Russian company Gazprom and 1.3 billion cubic meters with Nigeria will also expire at the end of 2021.
The 4 billion cubic meter contracts that BOTAŞ transferred to the private sector in 2007 will be completed at the end of next year.
Meanwhile, the fate of Qatar's 2.1 billion cubic meter LNG contract, which ended in September this year, is expected to be clear in the New Year.
Thus, a total of 11.4 billion cubic meters of gas contracts with Russia, Qatar and Nigeria are likely to be renewed. That represents 20 per cent of Turkey's total gas contracts.
As Turkey's natural gas contract negotiations with Russia continue, at the beginning of the demands of BOTAŞ and private sector companies in these negotiations is the creation of a flexible contract structure based on formulas indexed to prices in international trade centers and a reduction in prices.
"2021 is a critical threshold"
Volkan Yiğit, a partner at the consulting firm APLUS Energy, told Reuters that 2021 is a critical threshold for long-term natural gas contracts from energy sector stakeholders and government agencies.
Yiğit stated that Turkey's investments in LNG infrastructure in recent years are important steps in terms of resource diversity and flexibility, "on the other hand, increasing the volume of storage facilities every year will increase the flexibility of the system and allow us to take advantage of low price periods. The first of the fruits of this strategy was in the second quarter, when LNG prices fell to the lowest level in history this year, and by making a large amount of our supply with LNG, we have reduced our gas cost and made gains that will strengthen our hand in contract negotiations., "he said.
Yiğit said that" buy or pay " obligations in Turkey's existing natural gas contracts and restrictions on the inability to export natural gas to another country are an obstacle.:
"In this respect, a flexible contract structure is one of the most important demands of Turkey. Another expectation from the negotiations is a possible discount on the sale price of natural gas. Whether this expectation will apply only to contracts that will end, and whether it will apply to ongoing Russian gas contracts will come as a result of negotiations. One element that supports our expectation of a discount is the 40 percent discount that Russia finally provided to Bulgaria this new year. As Russia continued these negotiations with other European countries, it had to make significant discounts. Of course, our country's relations with Russia are not limited only to natural gas trade. We also have to think about political issues with the ongoing Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant project, defense industry cooperation and supply agreements. For this reason, it is unfortunately impossible to comment only by thinking about the dynamics of the energy market, but I am hopeful of negotiations. At the very least, I expect favorable conditions to be met for contracts that will be renewed. I look at the renewal of at least half of the 8 billion cubic meter natural gas contract with Russia. For the other half, I think the bargaining process is more critical. I think that these negotiations and the outcome will also be a reference for the 16 billion cubic meter Blue Stream contract, which will be completed in 2025."
Lowest gas purchase cost in first quarter of 2021
Yiğit noted that the change in oil prices in oil-indexed contracts is reflected in gas prices, coming from 6 to 9 months behind, after the decline in oil prices this year, the price of gas imports, which is at $ 285 per 1000 cubic meters in 2019, fell to $ 210 this year, he said.
Indicating that this figure will fall to $ 170 for 1000 cubic meters, reaching the lowest level of recent periods in the first quarter of 2021, Yiğit said that they expect gas prices to increase after this period, indexed to the price of oil, and at the end of 2021, the price for 1000 cubic meters will rise above $ 200.
Yiğit noted that the contract with Azerbaijan was renewed with a new capacity of 6 billion cubic meters imported within the scope of the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline project.
Record LNG imports
"Even if we think that our long-term contracts have fallen to 40 billion cubic meters, we have a system that can easily manage the missing part with spot LNG imports," said Yiğit, who said that technically, when Turkey's LNG capacity is taken into account, all contracts that will end in 2021 may not need to be renewed. So much so that we have set a new record in this area by importing about 12 billion cubic meters of LNG in 9 months of 2020, and this shows how valuable the strategic investments we mentioned above are in terms of the flexibility of our system." said.
Yiğit noted that the share of LNG in Turkey's total natural gas imports is steadily increasing.:
"Kovid-19 outbreaks during periods of declining LNG prices to the lowest level in the history of the most intense, the expectation of economic recovery, vaccines developments in arbitrage opportunities between markets and natural gas use for heating in the winter due to the increase in shipping because of the difficulty in finding upward trend in recent months gone again. In fact, this volatility in the markets has allowed Turkey to better demonstrate the place of LNG in its gas strategy. Our greatest expectation at the point of renewing long-term contracts is that contracts can be signed that will give us flexibility, in other words, the removal or easing of obligations such as buy or pay."
"From the point of view of security of supply, no problem"
Gökhan Yardım, partner and company director of ADG Anadolu natural gas consulting company, emphasized the importance of flexible contract structure and stated that Turkey, in parallel with the developments in the world gas market, demanded that "prices be determined based on prices focused on the Centers determined in the free market rather than oil prices".
"When we think about our LNG infrastructure and the discovery in the Black Sea, this issue will not be a problem, but it needs to be approached from the point of view of neighborly relations. Both sides have to be willing., "he said.
The aid stressed that Turkey's LNG infrastructure is gaining great importance in terms of energy supply security, noting that Turkey is taking advantage of cheap LNG opportunities.
Türk doğal gaz sektörü açısından kritik bir eşik olarak nitelendirilen 2021'de Türkiye'nin uzun vadeli doğal gaz kontratlarının bir bölümünün süresi sona erecek. Kontratlarda esneklik ve fiyatlarda indirim Türkiye'nin taleplerinde başta geliyor. - Anadolu Ajansı
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