Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

US Senator Graham says Ukraine aid depends on conditions, domestic issues​

Scott Summers said:

Waste of taxmoney.

Could be more usefull for the millions of homeless-and unemployed German citizens, or the millions of African immigrants in German cities.

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Relic said:

Next up is the process of securing funding for the next batch of shells that are reportedly out there. Numbers as high as 700,000 additionally available 155mm, 152mm and 122mm shells are being reported. If the cost structure is similar to the first 800,000 shells we're talking about another $1.4 Billion usd that needs to be raised into the 2nd half of the year.

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contricusc said:

It is essential that the Czechs continue their effort of securing shells from all over the world. It took only a few weeks to find funding for the first batch, so money is not the problem. The coalition should make sure they buy all the shells available anywhere in the world and put them to good use against Putin’s orcs.

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Relic said:

The biggest problem isn't the availability of shells worldwide. There are millions that could be purchased. The problem specifically is with the sourcing of 155mm shells of the appropriate type. One of the problems that the West faces is that many of their platforms fire specific versions of 155mm shells, designed by (and sometimes contracted out to) specific companies. Therefore, you have to find shells that match the specific platforms that Ukraine has in service. There is a big push to standardize shells among platforms, but that hasn't started as of yet.

On a positive note, you have countries such as India , South Korea , Turkey and Pakistan that have significant shell manufacturing capacity and also keep millions of shells on hand, in storage. Those shells all have expiration dates and need to be rotated through. Those countries can produce shells cheaply. New shells cost between $600-$1500 usd to produce in those markets. They can then turn around and sell their older shells close to expiration to the western shell coalition for $2000-$2500 usd per shell. That means they can fully restock large portions of their shell inventories, for free (using Western money) re-setting the expiration dates for their inventories, while profiting significantly on top of that. It's a HUGE win for those countries, as well as Ukraine. And when the bill is split 15-20 ways between western nations and Ukraine, it's affordable to keep buying as long as the above mentioned countries want to sell.

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blackjack said:

A news article today said that the 60,000 troops would include not only France but other soldiers from other NATO countries. This number wouldn't turn the tide though. The Ukrainians themselves said that they needed 20,000-30,000 replacements in manpower per month since their casualties are just that heavy. What other retaliation will be next from Europe? Nukes? Only country I see in central europe pushing others for war is France. Russians might have the capabilities in which the Dead Hand does not have to be pulled and basically can annex the country without nuking it. It rather comes down to how many nuclear missiles France has with their capabilities and what amount of SAM's Russia has and how they improved those capabilities.

France supposedly signed some agreement where they can't have more than 300 nuclear warheads, but it comes down to where those nuclear warheads are in. A large portion can be in cruise missiles like ASMP and Storm shadow. The thing those have to be transferred with aircrafts to Ukraine and that is highly assuming the Russians wouldn't bomb your location in Ukraine. And depending on the aircraft of choice to carry those a good distance has to be travelled through Ukraine than to Russia assuming the aircraft or missile was not shot down. And alerting the Russians that you used sent a nuke to detonate in their airspace or Ukraine might have dire consequences in return depending on their next choice of action.

Even if France has some SRBM, MRBMs or IRBMs laying around the early version of the S-400 was meant to deal with those threats back in 2007, and they got newer radars and made new modifications with their SAM missiles like new warhead tracking sensors and boosting the G-load from 30 to 60 along with increasing range to deal with the possibility that their BMs have maneuvering capabilities like the Topol-M
https://topwar.ru/164483-neozvuchen...eni-favorit-rm.html?ysclid=lu1j38jrn101780481


The Yars replaced the Topol and the Cedar missile replaced the Yars which segways into what is left of Frances SLBM and ICBM arsenal and what capabilities do they have?

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/m51/
Supposedly 57 were planned but orders were cut. I am assuming these SLBMs only follow a simple ballistic trajectory before releasing MIRVs and there is no information that it has abilities like the Topol-M which can maneuver before the midcourse phase, short engine burn time following take off which gives a short reaction to satellite detection of launches during its boost phase and also a more flat ballistic trajectory with a lesser reaction time for ground based radars to track and intercept. The Yars probably has more sophisticated capabilites than the Topol and the Cedar has more sophisticated capabilities than Yars.

The S-500 is stated to intercept 10 ICBMs simultaneously according to earlier claims, intercept HGVs and has recently intercepted a SLBM.
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/03/29/russia-to-upgrade-moscows-missile-defenses-by-years-end/
10 battalions of S-500s assuming SLBMs are just ICBMs were ordered in 2021 to complete the 2027 armement program which can give capabilities to intercept 100 ICBM/SLBMs with the assumption that the interception rate is good and that Frances M51s dont misfire. And the program states the A-235 is to be completed by the end of the armament program which has new interceptor missiles that operate farther than the S-500 and has powerful ground radar defense called Voronezh radars and I think they will be fielding the Yakhroma radar with it https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/10438637 and I think this might be their 1st photonic radar since it will operate in meter 30-300mhz, decimeter 300mhz-3ghz, centimeter 3-30ghz, millimeter 30-300ghz frequencies.

But yeah, this is why they were mad the US exited the ABM treaty and I dont think they would let it fly having Ukraine be a part of NATO with the assumption that the west would reach their level of ABM capabilities to be closer to their borders reducing their nuclear strike capabilities. It paranoid the Russians enough to create Sarmatian, Poseidon, Burevestnik, Zircon, Kinzhal, more new missiles on tracked vehicles to move anywhere in Russia like yars, and a dedicated underground high speed train station carrying nuclear missiles in containers choosing random tracks on AI decisions to complicate western decision making on ever trying to strike Russia. This sounds like excessive schizo behavior of the world is coming to get us.

speaking of nukes, France is recently restarting their production.

the reality is the minute France launches their SLBM. Russia will retaliate and not only in France but on everyone else. Tactical nukes are another game. This however isn't a winning game either. Russia has more of them and in variety of platforms of variety of ranges. Europe will be more fucked than Russia.

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