Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Oublious]

US Senator Graham says Ukraine aid depends on conditions, domestic issues​

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senator-graham-says-ukraine-aid-depends-conditions-domestic-issues-2024-03-18/

Why did they not asked why are you giving Israel not a loan?

 

[Relic]

The Netherlands have announced the following defense package for Ukraine.

- 18 F-16's that will be sent to Romania to train Ukrainian pilots. An initial cohort will consist of 50 Ukrainian pilots that will train out of a Romanian air base. Seperate pilot training will also take place in USA, Britain and Denmark.

- 24 additional F-16's that will be sent direct to Ukraine to create multiple combat squadrons.

- 150 million usd worth of aerial weapons that are being purchased from industry.

- 200 million usd worth of drones to be used by existing Ukrainian brigades.

Netherlands purchasing over EUR 150M worth of ammunition for F-16 jets in Ukraine

The Netherlands is allocating more than EUR 150 million for the purchase of ammunition for F-16 fighter jets that will be sent to Ukraine. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[carlitobrigante]

Waste of taxmoney.

Could be more usefull for the millions of homeless-and unemployed German citizens, or the millions of African immigrants in German cities.

Germany doesn't even have quarter of a million homeless people by the way..

Turkey has more, and also does next to nothing to help them :-( It's almost entirely charities who pick up this thankless task. Perhaps you also suggest Turkey could reign in some of its military spending to help their homeless and unemployed, and the millions of immigrants in Turkish cities?

 

[Relic]

Poland isn't screwing around when it comes to arming itself against Russian aggression in the region. They just completed a contract today to purchase nearly 1800 missiles from USA . The contract is worth $3.6 billion usd and consists of...

- 821x AGM-158B-2 JASSM-ER cruise missiles.

- 745x AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM missiles.

- 232x AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder missiles.

U.S. approves sale of 1,798 missiles of various types to Poland

The United States has finalised the approval for a sale to Poland of 1,798 air-launched missiles across three types.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

 

[Gary]

I haven't yet see any of this in stable democracies like Russia

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770704750608019667

 

[Relic]

Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed, geolocated losses for Russia and Ukraine, Wednesday, March 20th.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770693166099730546

 

[Relic]

One of the more brutal videos I've seen yet of drones hammering infantry. In this video, two Russian infantrymen refuse to surrender and instead get caught in a "no man's land" of sorts with shovels, trying to fend off an FPV drone armed with a shaped charge...

NSFW... Check out the results. To think that this is what Putin is subjecting the young men of Russia to, for absolutely no reason. One can only hope videos like these make it back to their families, and at some point, cause outrage in Russia.

Meanwhile, one can only hope that the West ratchets up military aid to Ukraine. Sadly (and I mean that sincerely) we need much more of this.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770625585536200942

 

[Relic]

Finland has joined the Czech coalition to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine. They will make an initial investment of 30 million Euros towards the project. For those tracking, that will purchase approximately 16,000 shells from the tranche of 800,000 identified.

Of important note, there is reporting surfacing that the Czechs have found additional shells to purchase beyond the initial 800,000 that have been detailed and that they will push to purchase them as soon as the first 800,000 have been funded. Numbers mention range from an additional 200,000-700,000 shells. More to follow.

Finland to allocate €30 million for shells for Ukraine

The Government of Finland will provide €30 million to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine as part of a Czech initiative

mil.in.ua

 

[Relic]

How many shells (roughly) do we know for certain have been paid for via the Czech artillery shell coalition for Ukraine?

Germany : 180,000 shells
Netherlands : 135,000 shells
Belgium : 110,000 shells
Norway : 75,000 shells
Portugal : 55,000 shells
Canada : 20,000 shells
Lithuania : 20,000 shells
Denmark : 15,000 shells
Sweden : 15,000 shells
Finland : 15,000 shells
Slovenia : 5,000 shells
France : Unknown
Britain : Unknown
USA : Unknown
Czechia : Unknown
Ukraine : Unknown
Romania : Unknown
Latvia : Unknown
Luxembourg : Unknown

Total known shells: 645,000

Note: while that leaves 155,000 shells unaccounted for, when you look at the list of "heavy hitters" that are known to have joined the coalition but have not disclosed how many shells / the value of the shells they've purchased, it's more than reasonable to assume that they've all been paid for per reports from the Czechs.

Next up is the process of securing funding for the next batch of shells that are reportedly out there. Numbers as high as 700,000 additionally available 155mm, 152mm and 122mm shells are being reported. If the cost structure is similar to the first 800,000 shells we're talking about another $1.4 Billion usd that needs to be raised into the 2nd half of the year.

 

[contricusc]

Next up is the process of securing funding for the next batch of shells that are reportedly out there. Numbers as high as 700,000 additionally available 155mm, 152mm and 122mm shells are being reported. If the cost structure is similar to the first 800,000 shells we're talking about another $1.4 Billion usd that needs to be raised into the 2nd half of the year.

It is essential that the Czechs continue their effort of securing shells from all over the world. It took only a few weeks to find funding for the first batch, so money is not the problem. The coalition should make sure they buy all the shells available anywhere in the world and put them to good use against Putin’s orcs.

 

[Relic]

It is essential that the Czechs continue their effort of securing shells from all over the world. It took only a few weeks to find funding for the first batch, so money is not the problem. The coalition should make sure they buy all the shells available anywhere in the world and put them to good use against Putin’s orcs.

The biggest problem isn't the availability of shells worldwide. There are millions that could be purchased. The problem specifically is with the sourcing of 155mm shells of the appropriate type. One of the problems that the West faces is that many of their platforms fire specific versions of 155mm shells, designed by (and sometimes contracted out to) specific companies. Therefore, you have to find shells that match the specific platforms that Ukraine has in service. There is a big push to standardize shells among platforms, but that hasn't started as of yet.

On a positive note, you have countries such as India , South Korea , Turkey and Pakistan that have significant shell manufacturing capacity and also keep millions of shells on hand, in storage. Those shells all have expiration dates and need to be rotated through. Those countries can produce shells cheaply. New shells cost between $600-$1500 usd to produce in those markets. They can then turn around and sell their older shells close to expiration to the western shell coalition for $2000-$2500 usd per shell. That means they can fully restock large portions of their shell inventories, for free (using Western money) re-setting the expiration dates for their inventories, while profiting significantly on top of that. It's a HUGE win for those countries, as well as Ukraine. And when the bill is split 15-20 ways between western nations and Ukraine, it's affordable to keep buying as long as the above mentioned countries want to sell.

 

[Relic]

Estonia announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today, in the amount of 20 million Euros. The package consists of the following.

- 155mm artillery shells
- Anti-armor systems
- Sniper equipment
- Small arms ammunition
- Unspecified explosive materials
- Gas masks
- Spare parts

Estonia to transfer artillery and ammunition to Ukraine

Estonia has announced a new package of military aid, which will include artillery, ammunition, and equipment

mil.in.ua

 

[Soldier30]

Use of the T-72 tank and BMP-3 during the assault on Georgievka. Footage of the assault in the area of Georgievka, a stronghold of the Ukrainian army located nearby in a forest belt. The video shows the use of a presumably Russian T-72 tank and a BMP-3 armored personnel carrier. A group of combat vehicles is moving under Ukrainian artillery fire towards a strong point. When approaching the positions, the tank and infantry fighting vehicles begin to suppress the firing points, after which troops land from the BMP-3 and storm the strong point. The video was filmed in the Maryinsky direction and shortened, the end of the battle is shown on the telegram channel.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770819868801065218

The West's embargo on Russia is nothing more than a lie.

 

[Kartal1]

The biggest problem isn't the availability of shells worldwide. There are millions that could be purchased. The problem specifically is with the sourcing of 155mm shells of the appropriate type. One of the problems that the West faces is that many of their platforms fire specific versions of 155mm shells, designed by (and sometimes contracted out to) specific companies. Therefore, you have to find shells that match the specific platforms that Ukraine has in service. There is a big push to standardize shells among platforms, but that hasn't started as of yet.

On a positive note, you have countries such as India , South Korea , Turkey and Pakistan that have significant shell manufacturing capacity and also keep millions of shells on hand, in storage. Those shells all have expiration dates and need to be rotated through. Those countries can produce shells cheaply. New shells cost between $600-$1500 usd to produce in those markets. They can then turn around and sell their older shells close to expiration to the western shell coalition for $2000-$2500 usd per shell. That means they can fully restock large portions of their shell inventories, for free (using Western money) re-setting the expiration dates for their inventories, while profiting significantly on top of that. It's a HUGE win for those countries, as well as Ukraine. And when the bill is split 15-20 ways between western nations and Ukraine, it's affordable to keep buying as long as the above mentioned countries want to sell.

The last time France, Greece and Cyprus blocked the acquisition of Turkish defence products for Ukraine.

 

[Relic]

Czechia has completed the transfer of its final 2 MI-24 attack helicopters to Ukraine and now no longer uses the platform. In total, the Czechs have transfered 10 of the Soviet made helos between 2022 and today. They also transfered their remaining weapons adnspare parts for the units.

Czech Republic transfers two last Mi-24 helicopters to Ukraine

The Czech government has transferred the last two Mi-24 attack helicopters for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Ukraine

mil.in.ua

 

[blackjack]

A news article today said that the 60,000 troops would include not only France but other soldiers from other NATO countries. This number wouldn't turn the tide though. The Ukrainians themselves said that they needed 20,000-30,000 replacements in manpower per month since their casualties are just that heavy. What other retaliation will be next from Europe? Nukes? Only country I see in central europe pushing others for war is France. Russians might have the capabilities in which the Dead Hand does not have to be pulled and basically can annex the country without nuking it. It rather comes down to how many nuclear missiles France has with their capabilities and what amount of SAM's Russia has and how they improved those capabilities.

France supposedly signed some agreement where they can't have more than 300 nuclear warheads, but it comes down to where those nuclear warheads are in. A large portion can be in cruise missiles like ASMP and Storm shadow. The thing those have to be transferred with aircrafts to Ukraine and that is highly assuming the Russians wouldn't bomb your location in Ukraine. And depending on the aircraft of choice to carry those a good distance has to be travelled through Ukraine than to Russia assuming the aircraft or missile was not shot down. And alerting the Russians that you used sent a nuke to detonate in their airspace or Ukraine might have dire consequences in return depending on their next choice of action.

Even if France has some SRBM, MRBMs or IRBMs laying around the early version of the S-400 was meant to deal with those threats back in 2007, and they got newer radars and made new modifications with their SAM missiles like new warhead tracking sensors and boosting the G-load from 30 to 60 along with increasing range to deal with the possibility that their BMs have maneuvering capabilities like the Topol-M
https://topwar.ru/164483-neozvuchen...eni-favorit-rm.html?ysclid=lu1j38jrn101780481


The Yars replaced the Topol and the Cedar missile replaced the Yars which segways into what is left of Frances SLBM and ICBM arsenal and what capabilities do they have?

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/m51/
Supposedly 57 were planned but orders were cut. I am assuming these SLBMs only follow a simple ballistic trajectory before releasing MIRVs and there is no information that it has abilities like the Topol-M which can maneuver before the midcourse phase, short engine burn time following take off which gives a short reaction to satellite detection of launches during its boost phase and also a more flat ballistic trajectory with a lesser reaction time for ground based radars to track and intercept. The Yars probably has more sophisticated capabilites than the Topol and the Cedar has more sophisticated capabilities than Yars.

The S-500 is stated to intercept 10 ICBMs simultaneously according to earlier claims, intercept HGVs and has recently intercepted a SLBM.
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/03/29/russia-to-upgrade-moscows-missile-defenses-by-years-end/
10 battalions of S-500s assuming SLBMs are just ICBMs were ordered in 2021 to complete the 2027 armement program which can give capabilities to intercept 100 ICBM/SLBMs with the assumption that the interception rate is good and that Frances M51s dont misfire. And the program states the A-235 is to be completed by the end of the armament program which has new interceptor missiles that operate farther than the S-500 and has powerful ground radar defense called Voronezh radars and I think they will be fielding the Yakhroma radar with it https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/10438637 and I think this might be their 1st photonic radar since it will operate in meter 30-300mhz, decimeter 300mhz-3ghz, centimeter 3-30ghz, millimeter 30-300ghz frequencies.

But yeah, this is why they were mad the US exited the ABM treaty and I dont think they would let it fly having Ukraine be a part of NATO with the assumption that the west would reach their level of ABM capabilities to be closer to their borders reducing their nuclear strike capabilities. It paranoid the Russians enough to create Sarmatian, Poseidon, Burevestnik, Zircon, Kinzhal, more new missiles on tracked vehicles to move anywhere in Russia like yars, and a dedicated underground high speed train station carrying nuclear missiles in containers choosing random tracks on AI decisions to complicate western decision making on ever trying to strike Russia. This sounds like excessive schizo behavior of the world is coming to get us.

speaking of nukes, France is recently restarting their production.

the reality is the minute France launches their SLBM. Russia will retaliate and not only in France but on everyone else. Tactical nukes are another game. This however isn't a winning game either. Russia has more of them and in variety of platforms of variety of ranges. Europe will be more fucked than Russia.

 

[Relic]

A news article today said that the 60,000 troops would include not only France but other soldiers from other NATO countries. This number wouldn't turn the tide though. The Ukrainians themselves said that they needed 20,000-30,000 replacements in manpower per month since their casualties are just that heavy. What other retaliation will be next from Europe? Nukes? Only country I see in central europe pushing others for war is France. Russians might have the capabilities in which the Dead Hand does not have to be pulled and basically can annex the country without nuking it. It rather comes down to how many nuclear missiles France has with their capabilities and what amount of SAM's Russia has and how they improved those capabilities.

France supposedly signed some agreement where they can't have more than 300 nuclear warheads, but it comes down to where those nuclear warheads are in. A large portion can be in cruise missiles like ASMP and Storm shadow. The thing those have to be transferred with aircrafts to Ukraine and that is highly assuming the Russians wouldn't bomb your location in Ukraine. And depending on the aircraft of choice to carry those a good distance has to be travelled through Ukraine than to Russia assuming the aircraft or missile was not shot down. And alerting the Russians that you used sent a nuke to detonate in their airspace or Ukraine might have dire consequences in return depending on their next choice of action.

Even if France has some SRBM, MRBMs or IRBMs laying around the early version of the S-400 was meant to deal with those threats back in 2007, and they got newer radars and made new modifications with their SAM missiles like new warhead tracking sensors and boosting the G-load from 30 to 60 along with increasing range to deal with the possibility that their BMs have maneuvering capabilities like the Topol-M
https://topwar.ru/164483-neozvuchen...eni-favorit-rm.html?ysclid=lu1j38jrn101780481


The Yars replaced the Topol and the Cedar missile replaced the Yars which segways into what is left of Frances SLBM and ICBM arsenal and what capabilities do they have?

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/m51/
Supposedly 57 were planned but orders were cut. I am assuming these SLBMs only follow a simple ballistic trajectory before releasing MIRVs and there is no information that it has abilities like the Topol-M which can maneuver before the midcourse phase, short engine burn time following take off which gives a short reaction to satellite detection of launches during its boost phase and also a more flat ballistic trajectory with a lesser reaction time for ground based radars to track and intercept. The Yars probably has more sophisticated capabilites than the Topol and the Cedar has more sophisticated capabilities than Yars.

The S-500 is stated to intercept 10 ICBMs simultaneously according to earlier claims, intercept HGVs and has recently intercepted a SLBM.
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/03/29/russia-to-upgrade-moscows-missile-defenses-by-years-end/
10 battalions of S-500s assuming SLBMs are just ICBMs were ordered in 2021 to complete the 2027 armement program which can give capabilities to intercept 100 ICBM/SLBMs with the assumption that the interception rate is good and that Frances M51s dont misfire. And the program states the A-235 is to be completed by the end of the armament program which has new interceptor missiles that operate farther than the S-500 and has powerful ground radar defense called Voronezh radars and I think they will be fielding the Yakhroma radar with it https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/10438637 and I think this might be their 1st photonic radar since it will operate in meter 30-300mhz, decimeter 300mhz-3ghz, centimeter 3-30ghz, millimeter 30-300ghz frequencies.

But yeah, this is why they were mad the US exited the ABM treaty and I dont think they would let it fly having Ukraine be a part of NATO with the assumption that the west would reach their level of ABM capabilities to be closer to their borders reducing their nuclear strike capabilities. It paranoid the Russians enough to create Sarmatian, Poseidon, Burevestnik, Zircon, Kinzhal, more new missiles on tracked vehicles to move anywhere in Russia like yars, and a dedicated underground high speed train station carrying nuclear missiles in containers choosing random tracks on AI decisions to complicate western decision making on ever trying to strike Russia. This sounds like excessive schizo behavior of the world is coming to get us.

speaking of nukes, France is recently restarting their production.

the reality is the minute France launches their SLBM. Russia will retaliate and not only in France but on everyone else. Tactical nukes are another game. This however isn't a winning game either. Russia has more of them and in variety of platforms of variety of ranges. Europe will be more fucked than Russia.

Nobody is nuking anybody. That's just complete fantasy.

Any French, Baltic, Polish, etc troops that go to Ukraine (if that even happens) will not be serving in anything close to a front line role. They would be placed on the Belarussian and Transnistrian border as de facto border guards, freeing up Ukrainian troops and equipment to be sent to the front against Russia. Secondary roles would include aiding defense manufacturing, helping train Ukrainian troops, de-mining operations, intelligence gathering, etc. There would also be the additional air defenses arriving in theater to protect those troops, but also protect the Ukrainians living nearby.

Nobody sane is talking about French, Polish, Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, etc soldiers on the front line of this war.

 

[Gary]

Guys...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770741977572601909

 

[UkroTurk]

US urges Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian refineries - FT

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

The US has called on Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, warning that drone strikes could cause global oil prices to rise, as well as US gasoline prices, which could hurt President Joe Biden's re-election bid, according to Financial Times.