TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

RMZN said:

Why should Turkey "mend" relations with actors actively hostile towards Turkey at the cost of its national security? The EU is as much of a hostile actor towards Turkey as Russia, Israel or Iran. Its not some benign actor.

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If you want the EU to not be hostile, you need to mend relations with them. It’s not such a difficult concept to gasp.

As long as Turkey has military in Northern Cyprus, it basically occupies land of a EU country. This is detrimental to Turkey‘s national security, because it keeps the door open for a potential future conflict.

It doesn’t really matter who is right and who is wrong in Cyprus. Both sides think they are right and that the opposing side is wrong. What I am trying to explain here is that the status quo is not beneficial to Turkey, because it blocks potential improvements in relations with the EU, and it leaves the door open for a potential future conflict.

What do you hope to achieve by keeping a military presence in Cyprus? How does this benefit Turkey in the long term?

The current situation benefits Russia and the US, because it keeps an old wound open between Turkey and Europe, and the two cannot mend their relations because of that.

Do you think it is beneficial for Turkey to be in an adversarial position towards the EU?

Recent developments in Ukraine and the US are pushing Europe towards rearming and deeper integration. Do you want to miss this opportunity to integrate with Europe because of Northern Cyprus?

Also, keep in mind that once Europe gears up its MIC, it will be unwilling to gear it down once the Eastern flank is secured and Ukraine liberated. You will than have a hugely powerful and influential European MIC that will be hungry for new conflicts in order to justify its new increased size. Once Europe resolves its current security problems, it will start being much more assertive in the Mediterranean, and if Turkey will still be at odds with Cyprus, it may end up being the unfortunate adversary of an emboldened and more aggressive Europe.

Europe is looking to become more independent and powerful, because of Putin’s and Trump’s big mistakes of shaking the status quo. It would be wise for Turkey to join Europe now, while it has a strong hand (Turkey would be very helpful against Russia considering its size and strength), rather than stay on the sidelines while Europe rearms and rediscovers its strength.

Most Europeans would prefer to have Turkey as an ally, but the Cyprus issue is a big thorn in relations, and it is up to Turkey to offer concessions in order to fix it.

In the long term, Turkey needs good relations with Europe much more than Europe needs good relations with Turkey. Ignoring this fact is a very big geopolitical mistake.

contricusc said:

Do you want to miss this opportunity to integrate with Europe because of Northern Cyprus?

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More important question here is, is EU willing to failing to integrate Turkey at the whim of Greece and Greek Cypriots.

Annan Plan was supported by Turkey, Greece, US, EU, UK and UN. It would oversee a token Turkish force on the island, which would be reduced to 500 in 5 years at most and a complete withdrawal in 10. All the political machinations of the plan was so that the majority wouldn't try to bend the minority's arm around its back again, as it had done so after 1964. Greek Cypriots were awarded with an EU membership for their nay vote. Turkey was ready and willing to get itself rid of the Cyprus problem then.

Turkey was once again very willing and pushing for peace in 2017 in Crans Montana. Greek Cypriot side was again the side that refused any talks going forward. Because crux of the matter is that Greek Cypriots are fine and happy with having 100% control of their part of the island and we now know that they are not interested in sharing power.

Trust is long gone there.

"Greece, Cyprus, Enosis" was written on every single Cypriot army base's entrance until 1974. It's still shouted by both Greek and Greek Cypriot militaries as a chant, a horrible way of showing their ideological training. No government worth its mettle is abandoning Cyprus. Not just because of history or humanity, but also because it's literally our belly and backyard.

Settlers that have now become Cypriots are not going anywhere, army is not going anywhere. All the implied threats are nice and all, but we've seen far worse. We survived Assad and Russians on our ass, we can survive the EU.

Sanchez said:

More important question here is, is EU willing to failing to integrate Turkey at the whim of Greece and Greek Cypriots.

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While the EU would prefer to integrate Turkey, it cannot ignore the concerns of its two member states. It would be much easier to integrate Turkey if this problem would be resolved.

Sanchez said:

Settlers that have now become Cypriots are not going anywhere, army is not going anywhere. All the implied threats are nice and all, but we've seen far worse. We survived Assad and Russians on our ass, we can survive the EU.

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Nobody is claiming that Turkey can’t survive the EU. But being an adversary instead of a partner or even member is a much worse proposition.

Turkey’s potential economic development is greatly hindered by not having very good relations with the EU. Greece and Cyprus have no reason to alter their positions because they are already in the EU and they don’t lose anything by prolonging the status quo. This is why it is in Turkey’s inteest to make concessions and fix the problem.

As things currently stand, the Cyprus problem is hurting Turkey much more than it is hurting Greece.

If I were Turkish, I would want this problem to be solved as soon as possible, even if it meant making big concessions, because the long term benefits would far outweigh the necessary compromises.

contricusc said:

even if it meant making big concessions

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Turkish concessions over the decades have been big. Turkish public always by and large supported the consecutive governments in regards to this. What the other side demands is more than an arm and a leg. A withdrawal of troops without a political solution in place with guarantees? What? When did that ever happen throughout history? You can't reason with these people, if it's Cyprus like this today, it'll be some other thing 5 years later, more than likely a complete redrawing of the territorial waters of Aegean. Why should we go along with all this, when Greece will still be holding a much better position re EU with their veto. At what point will have we done enough to satisfy their needs? Hellenic coast guard is already literally invading Turkish land because we are trying very hard to not shoot at them, should we gift a city or what?

And back to my original question. is EU willing to failing to integrate Turkey at the whim of Greece and Greek Cypriots. If they are, why bother in the first place and sully the memories of thousands of fallen?

Annan plan was the best ever deal Greek Cypriots were going to get in regards to the Cyprus issue. Crans Montana was the second. They refused both. Turkish Cypriot elections this year should be interesting. Let's see what the people think.

Bologna had granted œ honorary citizenship on March 17, joining 20 other Italian cities, including Palermo, Naples, and Fossalto, that have awarded the same honor to the imprisoned œ.​

After this news i asked ChatGPT about those cities with dates (the information it gave me are backed up with sources, so it shouldn't be against forum rules).

Full List of Italian Cities That Have Awarded Honorary Citizenship to œ​

1. Palermo (PA) – December 14, 2015
2. Naples (NA) – February 15, 2016
3. Palagonia (CT) – April 22, 2016
4. Reggio Emilia (RE) – December 20, 2016
5. Riace (RC) – September 20, 2016
6. Martano (LE) – February 16, 2017
7. Pinerolo (TO) – September 29, 2017
8. Castel de Giudice (IS) – April 2018
9. Castelbottaccio (CB) – April 3, 2018
10. Campobasso (CB) – May 4, 2018
11. Berceto (PR) – October 5, 2019
12. Fossalto (CB) – March 4, 2020
13. Rignano Flaminio (RM) – September 23, 2021
14. Montopoli (PI) – October 18, 2024
15. Cinquefrondi (RC) – Date unspecified
16. Fossalto (CB) – March 4, 2020
17. Rende (CS) – April 3, 2021
18. Montefalcone nel Sannio (CB) – Date unspecified
19. Tufara (CB) – January 24, 2019
20. Rignano Flaminio (RM) – September 23, 2021

contricusc said:

I know my opinion will not be popular on this forum, but I think Turkey is doing a big geopolitical mistake by insisting on a failed project (the so called TRNC).

Accusing Central Asian nations of “treason” for recognizing reality is simply wrong. Why would they sacrifice their potential economic ties with the EU for a separatist enclave that is not recognized by any other country except for Turkey?

At this point in time, the TRNC is a liability for Turkey, because it ruins any potential upgrade in relations with the EU, while offering no benefit. Turkey needs to move on, after 50 years since the Cyprus war. Why not let the Republic of Cyprus to reunite as a single sovereign state where all citizens ar equal regardless of ethnicity? This would also benefit the Turkish Cypriots, as they will be EU citizens with the many benefits that come with it. There would also be a huge influx of investment into Northern Cyprus if it would be reunited with the Republic of Cyrpus.

It is simply bad foreign policy to sabotage a EU member state for no real gain. Any potential improvement in EU-Turkish relations is held back by the Cyprus issue, which could be so easily resolved by Turkey, if only it would allow for Cyprus to reunite under equal terms (not the ridiculous proposal of the Annan Plan).

All Turkish Cypriots would be better off because they would become EU citizens, and there would be a lot of foreign investment in Northern Cyprus, while Turkey will be able to improve its relations with the EU.

Clinging onto a failed project will only damage Turkey’s geopolitical long term prospects.

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I'm pro EU, I live here and I love the EU as a concept and economic union. But I dont trust the EU to not backstab on any deal, if Cyprus were to unify. To many countries with their own agenda.

France is currently fucking with UK, blocking defense deals because of fishing rights. What do you think all those Balkan, Eastern Europe countries would demand from Turkey? They will find new reasons and blockers.

Letting Cyprus join before being united was the mistake, it was supposed to not be a blocker for Turkey but again backstabbed. Please excuse my french but EU or not EU, who cares. We just need a new, democratic government and the EU customs union.

We can survive as an half-way independent player in the region.

what said:

I'm pro EU, I live here and I love the EU as a concept and economic union. But I dont trust the EU to not backstab on any deal, if Cyprus were to unify. To many countries with their own agenda.

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Can’t argue with that. Always happens within the EU.

what said:

We just need a new, democratic government and the EU customs union.

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100% agree with you here as well. But joining the EU customs union will not be easy, and getting a new democratic government seems difficult as well…

Sanchez said:

Annan plan was the best ever deal Greek Cypriots were going to get in regards to the Cyprus issue. Crans Montana was the second. They refused both. Turkish Cypriot elections this year should be interesting. Let's see what the people think.

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If the Annan plan was the best deal Greek Cypriots were ever going to get, it means there was never a honest intention to allow for reunification. The Annan plan was not fair to Greek Cypriots and was destined to be rejected in the referendum.

As for the Turkish Cypriot elections this year, what are the options offered to the electorate?

contricusc said:

100% agree with you here as well. But joining the EU customs union will not be easy, and getting a new democratic government seems difficult as well…

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True getting a good government is the hard part but even without EU membership or the EU customs union we can realistically expect 5-6% GDP growth and 15-20bln of FDI p.a. once we return to rule of law and stability. Which is more than okay.

contricusc said:

The Annan plan included the following:

• A Senate (upper house), with 48 members, divided 24:24 between the two communities.
• A Supreme Court composed of equal numbers of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot judges, plus three foreign judges; to be appointed by the Presidential Council.

So despite the Greek Cypriot population being much more numerous, the Senate and the Supeme Court would have been divided equally between the two communities. This is just one example of bias against Greek Cypriots in the Annan Plan, and thee are many more.

It is no wonder that they voted against it, while Turkish Cypriots voted in favor. The plan was clearly one sided in favor of the Turkish community. Everyone knew this, but the EU, UK and the US wanted to pressue Cyprus in accepting a flawed plan just to get rid of the problem and appease Turkey.

A reunification should be made without quotas based on ethnicity, and with equal rights for all citizens. Otherwise, it will be just another failed state like Lebanon.

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Sorry, This is a disingenuous take. You point out even judicial and government representation as a bias towards the minority when you miss the simple point that, if unbalanced, either side could exploit the other.
The Hellenic side had no reason to make any concessions or reach a middle ground because its fundamental position was to hold the Turkish side fully accountable for the intervention which, they argued the plan did not address. The pro-rejection arguments essentially state that the Annan plan went against basic international laws concerning sovereignty, provided inadequate repatriation and compensation, maintained foreign influence and did not hold Turkiye thoroughly accountable as an “invader.” So, the message here was that unless the Hellenics essentially get back a pre-intervention Cyprus, they’re not interested and will keep the status quo supported by EU membership. Anything against this was painted as bias towards the Turkish side. The Hellenics do not want to factor in any notion of their responsibility for why they are where they are.

Turkiye's plan should always be to keep Greeks and Armenians weak.

No reconciliation nothing.

When time comes these guys will come and pounce against Turkiye and the Turks.

Good borders make good neighbours. Just like how Russia, Iran and Israel should be kept weak.

Melkor said:

Sorry, This is a disingenuous take. You point out even judicial and government representation as a bias towards the minority when you miss the simple point that, if unbalanced, either side could exploit the other.

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But you can’t expect a merger between a bigger country and a smaller country (based on population) to be a merger of equals when it comes to government representation.

When Germany reunited, it was basically West Germany absorbing East Germany, not a hybrid state with equal representation between the former republics. The only way for a future united Cyprus to be viable is to be united under a single government with a representative parliament based on democratic representation, where the vote of each citizen is equal.

Southern Cyprus is wealthier, more populous, has international recognition and it is part of the EU. Why would it want a unification under less than optimal conditions? It’s very similar to West-East Germany in terms of economic size. The GDP ratio is 22 billion to 4 billion and the GDP per capita is double in ROC vs TRNC.

Also, the Annan plan included some very nasty clauses for Cyprus, basically legitimizing the UK military bases in perpetuity, even giving them maritime economic zone. The sovereignity of a united Cyprus would have been compromised from the start under such a deal (that’s why the UK supported it).

I believe Cypriots were right to refuse the deal and wait for a better and fairer opportunity at reunification. And if such opportunity never comes, they are still better off separated like they are now.

Surprise visit of Germany to ASELSAN!
Chief of the General Staff of Germany General Carsten Breche arrived in Turkey and visited ASELSAN.

Wow you all need to watch this. Great speech by the Indonesian president.

EU folks here acting like the union is eternal. Even in the most critical hour (Ukraine, US tariffs etc.), the EU states cannot agree on anything of importance. It is a matter of decades before EU countries will start killing each other again.

Agha Sher said:

EU folks here acting like the union is eternal. Even in the most critical hour (Ukraine, US tariffs etc.), the EU states cannot agree on anything of importance. It is a matter of decades before EU countries will start killing each other again.

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Whether the union survives or not will come down to whether the big nations can compromise on their political, economic and geopolitical interests. The UK already left when the EU started to press them about control over the "city of London". Most of the smaller nations will say and do whatever the big boys say. Their histories for the most part has been no more then vassals to big outsider.

Interestingly enough in order to get people to leave, they created fear of entry of the Turks.



However, historically if anything pulled Europeans together its been the Turk.


When you see the EU going behind Turkiye's back to strike a deal with the central asian Turkic states to undermine Turkiye, your basically seeing the crusader mindset of these kunts on display.

Well, if our country could have a solid doctrin for Turks like the Chinese are showing for their own country they'd increase their influence inch by inch until we got majority on the Island.

Because at the end of the day we can see how Israel has been squeezing Palestinians out of Palestina, and the same can be done in Cyprus, if Türkiye wasn't close by to stop it.

But having absolute majority on the island would most definitely stop the EU plans much harder than anything that is going on. Pity TSK didn't take 5-10% more of the island.

Being fair is the bane of our existence.

GoatsMilk said:

Whether the union survives or not will come down to whether the big nations can compromise on their political, economic and geopolitical interests. The UK already left when the EU started to press them about control over the "city of London". Most of the smaller nations will say and do whatever the big boys say. Their histories for the most part has been no more then vassals to big outsider.

Interestingly enough in order to get people to leave, they created fear of entry of the Turks.

However, historically if anything pulled Europeans together its been the Turk.

When you see the EU going behind Turkiye's back to strike a deal with the central asian Turkic states to undermine Turkiye, your basically seeing the crusader mindset of these kunts on display.

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Cool little thing in that video is how after the battle is won, he changed the names of the states on the map to their Turkish versions, instead of the English that was used at the start.