TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign mutual defense pact as Gulf Arab states grow wary of US security guarantees​

Dubai/IslamabadReuters —
Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a formal mutual defense pact on Wednesday, in a move that significantly strengthens a decades-long security partnership amid heightened regional tensions.

The enhanced defense ties come as Gulf Arab states grow increasingly wary about the reliability of the United States as their longstanding security guarantor. Israel’s attack on Qatar last week heightened those concerns.

“This agreement is a culmination of years of discussions. This is not a response to specific countries or specific events but an institutionalization of longstanding and deep cooperation between our two countries,” a senior Saudi official told Reuters...


Here is the answer to Israel's threats against some Muslim countries!
Three Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait) promised the US $3 trillion in investments. It didn't work. Now they need to find another country that truly needs investment!

Iskander said:

Here is the answer to Israel's threats against some Muslim countries!
Three Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait) promised the US $3 trillion in investments. It didn't work. Now they need to find another country that truly needs investment!

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They should invest their money at home. Investing in the US will not change the fact that the Trump administration will bully any country at will, with complete disregard for allies, investors or treaties.

The GCC countries, Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea need to understand that the US is not an ally, especially in the era of Trump. It is a self serving bully with no morals and no respect for other countries. But what can you expect from a country who’s president admires Putin?

Iskander said:

Here is the answer to Israel's threats against some Muslim countries!

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Thats not an answer,its just fear.
A real answer would be the creation of a NATO like structure between all Arab nations.
Shows how devided they are,if they dont trust each other no sane Muslim country will trust them.
Pakistan is just thinking of its own interest(money) although this Shahbaz Sherif acts like clown,not a real leader.
Whats with the hugging,did he get a bonus(for himself) or something?

TR_123456 said:

Thats not an answer,its just fear.
A real answer would be the creation of a NATO like structure between all Arab nations.
Shows how devided they are,if they dont trust each other no sane Muslim country will trust them.
Pakistan is just tinking of its own interest(money) although this Shahbaz Sherif acts like clown,not a real leader.
Whats with the hugging,did he get a bonus(for himself) or something?

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Pakistan is a huge country; it could even rival mighty India. I know little about it. They say corruption is rampant there. Well, yes, the social situation there seems incredibly dire. Too bad.
But their army is a formidable force. Especially with nuclear weapons.

Iskander said:

Pakistan is a huge country; it could even rival mighty India. I know little about it. They say corruption is rampant there. Well, yes, the social situation there seems incredibly dire. Too bad.
But their army is a formidable force. Especially with nuclear weapons.

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Corruption is as natural as air in Pakistan,economicly in ruins,to many factions fighting each other.
The military rules,all chosen leaders are pawns of the military.
There is almost no national identity only the Muslim identity.
Lets just say that Pakistan is complicated.

I think that this is just a payment for Pakistan, to get their nuclear weapons under control.
USA suddenly turned ( apparently) their back on India, Chief of Staff visited USA etc. Also, probably Saudis are paying Pakistan, not to share nuclear with Turkey.
As of the unity or some front against Israel, forgot it.
In this forum, I have never talked about the Arab countries, I know since 30 years ago what is the position. If someone goes and ask a girl for a hand in marriage and she refuses, why go another 18x ???? What is the point
We will see , how Qatar reacts, if they carry on relaying in Western weapons and carry on investing with the same tempo , then forget that issue too.

TR_123456 said:

Thats not an answer,its just fear.
A real answer would be the creation of a NATO like structure between all Arab nations.
Shows how devided they are,if they dont trust each other no sane Muslim country will trust them.
Pakistan is just thinking of its own interest(money) although this Shahbaz Sherif acts like clown,not a real leader.
Whats with the hugging,did he get a bonus(for himself) or something?

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It is just making "more official" what was more discreet non-official thing for ~ 40 years now anyway.

i.e Saudi bank roles the nukes in exchange for immediate deterrent access should SHTF with say Iran.

That was large reason Saudis acquired DF-3s (static) and DF-21s (mobile) from PRC.

That too the DF-3s have relatively poor precision circle (this was still cold war PRC tech), so their only real use could be nuclear tipped.
It was late 80s acquisition, the US govt response to it (official and unofficial) is interesting to look at.

The DF-21 acquisitions were much later (mid 2000s), these do have much better precision along with road mobility and thus more official cover they are for conventional deterrent.

But still interesting ramification from US/West unwilling to arm KSA with ballistic missiles as consequence of what they officially see as some kind of perfidy in PRC-PAK-KSA triangle here....but in KSA deployment one the US gauges as almost entirely anti-Iran based.

Same kind of unofficial understanding KSA has with Israel who will always get overflight access to Iran in conflicts.

Same kind of bankrolling of Saddam by Saudis in Iran-Iraq war.

The "just enough" bankrolling of Pakistan mil establishment by KSA would happen with or without this deal made more official....as KSA wants to keep hedging what it can here....especially in light of Iran regime heavily bruised but not out and obviously looking to breakout with nukes if and when they can.

Making it more official adds more leverage for KSA to try get Pakistan on board with commiting to Yemen conflict (again from Iranian-Houthi alliance).... if that increases again later w.r.t KSA.

Imran Khan resisted that (this was part of reason Saudis started to squeeze a bunch of loan repayments in response at the time).... but he (and more broadly...any thinking like that in pak political class, they are supposed to not think and just understand they are a glove for the hand etc) is removed as obstacle now and Pak military will make more direct calls regarding that.

MHP leader Bahçeli is back in the spotlight. He suggested exploring the possibility of an alliance between Turkey, Russia, and China!
Something like this was to be expected. Other proposals are likely also being considered (Pakistan, Egypt, Iran?).

Erdoğan is planning a trip to New York. A meeting with Trump is possible. It appears this statement was made deliberately before the visit, and now Ankara will await Washington's reaction.

The Middle East is already shaking. But this isn't a real earthquake yet. Apparently, that's yet to come.

The West's sole global dominance, led by the United States, is being challenged by Russia and China.

(If Israel attacks a country hosting a Hegemonic military base, and the Hegemon doesn't even bat an eye, then who needs such a Hegemon?!)
It appears geopolitical changes will affect more than just this region. They will be global. The process continues. This will be a long period - 10-15 years, and possibly longer.

Sanchez said:

View attachment 77451

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1969100038262423731

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As I said I expect an conclusion on the F-35 topic when Erdogan goes to Washington which was supposed to happen in May but got delayed. Both Trump and Erdogan love their PR and won't let something like this just be announced by their underlings.

I expect an huge package to be announced following the visit or maybe even straight in the Oval Office with how much Trump loves to let slip.

Khagan1923 said:

As I said I expect an conclusion on the F-35 topic when Erdogan goes to Washington which was supposed to happen in May but got delayed. Both Trump and Erdogan love their PR and won't let something like this just be announced by their underlings.

I expect an huge package to be announced following the visit or maybe even straight in the Oval Office with how much Trump loves to let slip.

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Unles we start toeing the line on Israel officially, I don't expect such a package. Probably airliners which have been expected now for more than a year and a "final finalization" of F-16s.

Regardless this is one joint presser i'll be watching live.

contricusc said:

The GCC countries, Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea need to understand that the US is not an ally, especially in the era of Trump. It is a self serving bully with no morals and no respect for other countries. But what can you expect from a country who’s president admires Putin?

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We all have to understand, that it has less to do with D. Trump. What we see from the US is not a u-turn of interests or realignment, it’s the open face of US foreign policies without masks.

I for one really hope that the F35 is going to happen. Maybe smaller numbers, but at least enough to make our aircraft carriers useful.

Khagan1923 said:

As I said I expect an conclusion on the F-35 topic when Erdogan goes to Washington which was supposed to happen in May but got delayed. Both Trump and Erdogan love their PR and won't let something like this just be announced by their underlings.

I expect an huge package to be announced following the visit or maybe even straight in the Oval Office with how much Trump loves to let slip.

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It would be great to have 16 F-35B fighters in Anadolu. After all, it was originally designed specifically for these fighters. But given the soured Turkish-American relations, I'm skeptical of any proposals Trump makes. Interstate relations aren't the same as the relationship between Erdogan and Trump. In a few years, when Trump is gone, the Americans might change their minds. What then?

Canada, Australia, Japan, even European allies—everyone except Israel—are wary of Trump and his entourage.

Could the Americans remotely interfere with an F-35 mission? That's the question.

Furthermore, what will happen to Turkey's fleet of these fighters if, for some reason, the Americans subsequently refuse to maintain their combat readiness?

Ultimately, Turkey can't pander to every US wish in its foreign policy. Turkey isn't obligated to follow the American example forever. Turkey has its own interests, which, to put it mildly, don't always align with those of the United States, especially in the Middle East over the past two decades. How reasonable would it be to subordinate all of this to a simple return to the F-35 project?
I've had mixed feelings about all of this for several years now.

Iskander said:

After all, it was originally designed specifically for these fighters

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It wasn't. It was designed for Harriers. It needs large modifications on its flight deck to be able to handle F-35B operations.

Sanchez said:

It wasn't. It was designed for Harriers. It needs large modifications on its flight deck to be able to handle F-35B operations.

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By the time Anadolu's construction began, the Harriers were already long outdated. I followed the entire process from the very beginning. I believe Ankara only became interested in the Harriers after the US refused to supply the F-35b, citing the Russian S-400s.
Although, perhaps I've missed something.

Iskander said:

Although, perhaps I've missed something.

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Yes Bro, you like me, have missed that.
It was discussed here:

Bloomberg:

"According to Turkish officials familiar with the matter, the Turkish president will seek deals ranging from defence to energy worth tens of billions of dollars. Turkey plans to buy 40 F-35 jets, 40 F-16 Vipers and ammunition, including bombs and missiles, the officials said. The two sides are still negotiating the price of the F-16s, the officials said."

It really doesn't matter what Mr Trump would say or whether he agrees to reintroduce Türkiye to the F-35 clique or not.
In the end the Zionist lobby will get what it wants and he will succumb. Like the ones before him he's under the grip of AIPAC and other Zionist "NGOs".
In addition to that, Mr Erdogan is going to hold a speech at the UN assembly and it's going to be about Gaza. As usual, as soon as there are signs of thawing in the US-Turkish relations, he chooses to say something to piss off the Zionists who run the entire United States politics.

That being said, I find it important to speak for the injustice that is happening to Palestinians in Gaza and the illegal settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem, but the timing is just right to sabotage any deals involving the US, Especially after the latest word sparring between Mr Netenyahu and Mr Erdogan.

The Israeli news outlets are voicing concerns about Turkish military power and the naval drills of Turkish-Egyptian navies in the East Med.

In conclusion, I say no matter how warm and positive the meeting would be, there's next to no chance that anything would change but I'd like to be wrong.

Sanchez said:

Bloomberg:

"According to Turkish officials familiar with the matter, the Turkish president will seek deals ranging from defence to energy worth tens of billions of dollars. Turkey plans to buy 40 F-35 jets, 40 F-16 Vipers and ammunition, including bombs and missiles, the officials said. The two sides are still negotiating the price of the F-16s, the officials said."

Turkey will buy aircraft from the US: Boeing and F16 and F35 fighters on the shopping list

Boeing and Lockheed aim for big sales to Turkey: orders likely to coincide with Erdogan's visit to Trump on 25 September

en.ilsole24ore.com

Trump Will Meet Turkey’s Erdogan to Discuss F-35 Jet Dispute

Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. are poised to win aircraft orders from Turkey as soon as next week for as many as 250 commercial planes and additional F-16 fighter jets, with possible resolution of a long-running F-35 dispute.

www.bloomberg.com

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"Turkey had backed away from purchasing the F-16s and relayed this to US officials. Key members of Congress pushed back, telling they saw Turkey’s acquisition as a confidence-building step, my sources on the Hill said. From Trump’s remarks, it appears he will press Ankara to proceed with the deal — and Ankara has complied."