Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

A Ukrainian firefighter witnessed the impacts of Russian FAB bombs, the location of the shooting was not reported..

Good news in 2 ways for me today

- the price of fuel I put in my car is likely to fall in the next few months
- the price that Russia gets for each barrel of crude it sells is likely to fall in the next few months

Brent crude is expected to drop from around $66 a barrel to the mid-$50s in 2026, according to investment giant Macquarie, with prices driven down by oversupply.

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Urals to sell for less than 50 USD per barrel next year?

Spitfire9 said:

Urals to sell for less than 50 USD per barrel next year?

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Ukraine will try to fix the oil oversupply issue by decommissioning more Russian refineries and oil export terminals.

Today it was announced that Ukraine received a $4.6 Billion usd tranche of funding from the EU part of the ERA mechanism. This loan will be paid back using interest generated from frozen Russian assets. $2.3 Billion usd will fund the enormous surge of cash that the EU announced towards Ukrainian drones production.

A combat episode involving Russian special forces in Ukraine. The video shows Russian special forces ambush a foot patrol and attack a Ukrainian army pickup truck. Filmed in the rear area of Ukraine, the exact location is not disclosed. The dead have been removed from the video

Spitfire9 said:

Good news in 2 ways for me today

- the price of fuel I put in my car is likely to fall in the next few months
- the price that Russia gets for each barrel of crude it sells is likely to fall in the next few months



Urals to sell for less than 50 USD per barrel next year?

MSN

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How will oil prices get reduced when OPEC+ clearly dont want to reduce oil prices to such low levels as this will mean less profits to the Gulf Tycoons and the Russians are facing embargoes after embargoes which means they have to sell their oil more expensively through the backdoor to Western nations

Lool said:

How will oil prices get reduced when OPEC+ clearly dont want to reduce oil prices to such low levels as this will mean less profits to the Gulf Tycoons and the Russians are facing embargoes after embargoes which means they have to sell their oil more expensively through the backdoor to Western nations

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I think there are a number of factors involved in an excess of supply over demand appearing soon if it has not already appeared. A couple of possibilities for this I have heard (no guarantee they are right)

- Saudi Arabia wants to increase production to increase its share of the market for crude
- Producers want to make it difficult for US shale oil production to make a profit, so are prepared to increase production to lower crude prices to a level where shale oil production is unattractive

Now a new factor may be in the producers' minds: Russia may not be able to ship as much crude for export due to Ukrainian action damaging pipelines and port loading facilities. OPEC+ members will be pleased to cover the reduction in Russian exports by increasing their own production.

I don't think that customers for Russian oil will pay Russia a higher price. I think it is the other way round - it will be a buyer's market for Russian crude, putting customers in a position to demand bigger discounts to buy crude from Russia.

PS I believe that India and China bought less crude in the last month or two, perhaps fearing repercussions from buying Russian crude. US may put pressure on Turkiye to buy less as well. Turkiye needs GE engines for its KAAN (as I am sure you know) but it is reported that Congress has blocked supply. I imagine that is a serious problem.

PS I think OPEC+ members may also like a lower crude price to discourage US companies from following Trump's advice to 'drill, baby, drill' which should increase crude supply, softening prices in the long term.

Just to discredit Russian propaganda that some on this forum may still believe: there is a fuel crisis in Russia. Several refineries have not shut down production because they need 'repairs'. They have shut down production because they have been damaged by Ukrainian military action. Seala, a Russian energy markets analysis agency reports nearly 40% of the country’s refining capacity is no longer producing.

Ukraine’s new strategy of targeting oil refineries is taking its toll on Russia’s economy, dramatically cutting its refining capacity as the government seeks to balance massive military spending with falling revenue.
Citing data from Seala, a Russian energy markets analysis agency, the Russian business daily RBC reported that nearly 40 percent of the country’s refining capacity remains idle, mainly due to repairs after attacks.

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Here is a credible explanation of what is going on:

Russia’s economy entered a recession after two years of over 4% annual GDP growth driven by military spending, according to VEB chief economist Andrey Klepach, per RBC. VEB, a major state bank funding Kremlin projects, reported a 0.6% GDP decline in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, following a similar 0.6% drop in Q1 from Q4 2024, signaling a technical recession.

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To me it is starting to look like things are getting past the point of no return for the Russian economy. The government is strapped for cash. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's export crude loading facilities will have reduced government revenues from crude exports. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have provoked a transport crisis. The civil economy is in dire straits. The banks were forced to make risky loans to the MIC so may have a lot of potentially bad debt on their books. Consumers cannot service debt, falling more and more into arrears. The inflation rate for food is very high, forcing consumers who want to eat to spend less on other goods and services. Demand is set to be further reduced by a proposed increase in VAT from the start of 2026.

It seems to me that the only way is downhill more rapidly from here on for the government's finances, for the national economy and for Russia's ability to carry on the war in Ukraine. Time for me to get out the popcorn and watch the drama unfold.

I would urge Ukraine to refuse any peace proposals from Putin and to keep fighting until Russia's bitter end.

The use of a tracked kamikaze drone by the Russian 33rd Berlin Don Cossack Motorized Rifle Regiment in combat in Ukraine. The video shows a Russian ground-based kamikaze drone striking a Ukrainian army stronghold. The model of the robotic platform and the location of the filming were not disclosed. Such kamikaze drones are typically equipped with a TM-62M anti-tank mine. It's worth noting that ground-based kamikaze drones are increasingly being used in combat in Ukraine.

I see Flamingo is now in use. Ukraine now has a longer range missile with no use limitations which puts it on an equal footing to Russia. I note that there are various threats coming from Russia regarding the possible use of Tomahawk. Russia seems to see this as escalation. I see this as evening things up - Russia uses cruise missiles to attack Ukraine. Why should it threaten terrible consequences if Ukraine uses cruise missiles to attack Russia?

Ukrainian An-196 "Lyuty" kamikaze drones attacked the Russian Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orsk, Orenburg Oblast. The refinery is located approximately 1,500 km from the Ukrainian border. The Orsk refinery is one of the largest in Russia, processing approximately 6.5 million tons of oil per year