Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Soldier30

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Greek authorities discovered a Ukrainian military naval drone, the Magura V3, off the coast of the island of Lefkada in the Ionian Sea. Local fishermen spotted the drone, its engine still running. The fishermen towed the drone to port and handed it over to the Greek Coast Guard. A preliminary examination revealed that the drone was equipped with detonators but did not contain any explosives. It's worth noting that the drone could not have come from the Black Sea, as it would have been detained by Turkish authorities. It can be assumed that Ukrainian naval drones are launched in the Mediterranean from unknown ships.

 

Relic

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Pravda reporting that approximately $35.4 Billion usd of the $105 Billion usd loan from The European Union 🇪🇺 will be spent on drones, ammunition, artillery shells, missiles and air defense systems. The items will be procured throughout 2026 and 2027.

Of note, $7 Billion usd of that money will be spent on Ukraine's domestic drone industry in 2026. The money will produce 2.8 million drones of various types and uses, including more than 100,000 mid and long range attack drones.

The overwhelming number of armored vehicles, small arms, spare parts and other military equipment required is being provided through the individual budgets of Ukraine's 30+ Allies.

 

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A few days ago, Putin called Trump and asked him to persuade Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire for several days, fearing that the Ukrainians would attack the "invincible" Russians during the so-called Victory Day Parade, held annually on May 9 in Moscow to commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany. In response, the Ukrainians further escalated their attacks on military installations deep within Russia, using long-range drones. Putin found himself in a bind, having already invited several heads of state to the parade and unable to cancel it: the Ukrainians could easily attack the parade, humiliating Putin among the guests. Apparently, behind-the-scenes negotiations took place, and the two sides agreed to a prisoner exchange of 1,000 prisoners each, in exchange for which Ukraine would guarantee not to attack Moscow during the ill-fated parade.
Furthermore, Zelenskyy, undoubtedly with the aim of humiliating Putin, issued an ironic decree.

1778299742518.jpeg


Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 374/2026
"Considering numerous requests and for humanitarian purposes, as I outlined during negotiations with the American side on May 8, 2026, I hereby decree: to permit the parade to be held in Moscow (Russian Federation) on May 9, 2026."🙂🫢🤣

 
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Spitfire9

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IMO a good psychological move would have been to attack targets elsewhere in the Moscow region to remind all in Red Square that Ukraine is able to attack any target in Moscow if it wishes. They might lose all the drones concerned but air raid sirens and distant bangs will suggest to all invited spectators that Moscow is not in control of events.
 

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This would come too late to affect the war, wouldn't it? There is a consensus that Gripen suits Ukrainian needs better than other fighters, Early in the war Europe could have organised an initial Gripen capability for Ukraine by funding pilot and support staff training on Gripen C. Sweden could have supplied a couple of squadrons of SwAF Gripen C. SAAB could have completed and supplied the dozen incomplete Gripen C 'white tails' it was reported to have and more SwAF Gripen C aircraft could have been supplied as Gripen E entered SwAF service. Opportunity missed.

I see no urgency now for Ukraine to procure Gripen quickly since there is now a good number of used F-16 being passed on to Ukraine by European countries retiring them.


However, if F-16 operation in Ukraine is very challenging it could be better to start the process of setting up for Gripen E operation ASAP.
 
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Spitfire9

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BBC reports that Putin has said the Ukraine war may be coming to an end.


I don't see it. There are Russian oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhia) partially held by Ukraine. Putin may regret annexing those oblasts - he can't agree to surrendering parts of Russia to Ukraine. Ukraine can't agree to surrendering Kherson, Zaporizhia to Russia. Impasse.
 

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BBC reports that Putin has said the Ukraine war may be coming to an end.


I don't see it. There are Russian oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhia) partially held by Ukraine. Putin may regret annexing those oblasts - he can't agree to surrendering parts of Russia to Ukraine. Ukraine can't agree to surrendering Kherson, Zaporizhia to Russia. Impasse.
He can scale down intensity of the operations
 

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BBC reports that Putin has said the Ukraine war may be coming to an end.

Translation: We are losing the war. Trump, please help us put an end to it while keeping the land we had already stolen. If the war continues like that, we will have no oil refining capability left, and our oil and gas exports would collapse. Trump, Help!
 

Spitfire9

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Translation: We are losing the war. Trump, please help us put an end to it while keeping the land we had already stolen. If the war continues like that, we will have no oil refining capability left, and our oil and gas exports would collapse. Trump, Help!
Putin has the problem that he declared 2 Ukrainian oblasts to be part of Russia even though they were not completely occupied by Russian troops. How does he stop if that means leaving parts of these 2 new 'Russian' oblasts in Ukrainian hands?

A fine old mess Putin has got himself into.

The general view from what I read is that Putin is feeling less and less secure in his position and is starting to show signs of paranoid behaviour. Without some change for the better on the battlefield, in the country's economy and in the country's finances, where will Putin find himself in a few months' time? There seems to be growing uncertainty over what will happen with Putin and his war. While Trump may like and admire Putin, is it likely Trump will intervene to try to help Putin get out of the mess he has got himself into?

Personally I hope that Putin hangs on to power for a time and continues reducing Russia to an economic and financial wasteland. My hope is that if Putin goes his successor (a) will not want to continue the war (b) will not have the means to continue the war.
 
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Soldier30

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A battle between Russian soldiers and Ukrainian FPV drones and a bunker assault. Episodes of combat between Russian assault troops from the 80th Tank Regiment, Force Group Center, in the Dnipropetrovsk area. The video shows countering Ukrainian FPV drones in the field and storming a Ukrainian stronghold. It's worth noting that a single person can counter FPV drones with considerable risk. During the assault, Ukrainian FPV drones also attacked Russian soldiers. As a result of the battle, the Ukrainian underground stronghold was captured; footage from inside is shown at the end of the video. Some Ukrainian soldiers surrendered.

 

Spitfire9

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Hopefully Ukraine takes back Donbass but its not going to easy.

If they take back Donbass no doubt there is going to be a long drawn out insurgency especially since that province is mainly Russians. I hope they can return Ukrainian refugees that fled there to come back. As long as Russians live there its going to be hard to control that place.

Overall I back Ukraine to take it back. If only they did not lose Crimea. Crimea is more important than Donbass.
With manipulation of the population over the years for political reasons, who knows whether the majority of people living in Donbas in 2014 wanted to remain as part of Ukraine. If they did not (and there is now a big majority in favour of being part of Russia) what is the point of tying to annexe the area back into Ukraine?

Russia is trying to impose its culture on parts of Ukraine it has occupied. Not a good idea. No better than Ukraine trying to impose its culture on areas of Russian culture it controls. As you say, a long, drawn out insurgency could be expected if Donbas ended up in Ukrainian hands.
 
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Spitfire9

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There are many reports of the internet being closed down now and then by the Russian government. This prevents electronic payments and use of ATM's to withdraw cash.

At the same time there are reports of heavy withdrawals from Russian banks, described by some as a 'bank run'. It may simply be that citizens are withdrawing large amounts of cash and keeping a large stock of cash to ensure they can buy things when the internet is down.

Internet blackouts are, by nature, disastrous for Russian online businesses, reducing turnover during blackouts to zero.

 
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Soldier30

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Scenes from Russian air defense operations during the repelling of a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow and the Moscow region on May 17-18. Pantsir-S1/SM and Tor-M2 air defense systems were used to repel the attack. The air defenses performed well, but it was impossible to shoot down all the drones. Over the course of 24 hours, the Pantsir-S and Tor-M2 air defense systems shot down over 120 Ukrainian drones. It's worth noting that defending targets across Russia is impossible, as the country doesn't have that many air defense systems. This is currently considered the largest Ukrainian drone attack. The Ukrainian army used the Bars kamikaze jet drone, the FP-1 kamikaze UAV, the An-196 Lyuty, and other models in the attack.

 

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Skilled Officers Leaving Ukrainian Army Amid Totalitarian Command Style​


Amid the increasingly difficult operational situation in the east, where Russian forces continue their slow but persistent advance toward Kramatorsk, and despite localized tactical successes achieved by Ukrainian formations in the southern sector, tensions within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to mount. A growing number of experienced officers and field commanders are reportedly leaving military service, citing Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi’s harsh command style, excessive micromanagement, and what many describe as the growing authoritarianism of the military leadership.

One of the latest high-profile resignations came from Dmytro Kashchenko — Hero of Ukraine, former commander of the 58th Motorized Brigade, and former deputy commander of the 20th Army Corps — who recently submitted his dismissal from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In an interview with NV.ua, Kashchenko criticized the current command climate under Syrskyi, while noting that he held no personal grudge against the commander-in-chief, under whom he had previously advanced through the ranks during Syrskyi’s tenure as commander of the Ground Forces.

Transition Toward Authoritarianism​

“The main reason for my dismissal was the transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after the dismissal of Valerii Zaluzhnyi, toward totalitarianism and authoritarianism,” Kashchenko stated. “This is a command style that does not tolerate compromise decisions and does not accept alternative opinions. Any differing view is perceived as hostile, and eventually you yourself begin to be treated as an enemy. Having grounds for dismissal, and not wanting to participate in what was happening, I decided to resign.”
 

Spitfire9

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Economic growth has stalled, investment remains weak and consumer demand is slowing. Fiscal pressures are intensifying as revenues decline and expenditure, particularly defence spending, continues to rise. Even where commodity revenues provide temporary relief, they do not address the deeper structural imbalances of a war-driven economic model that is approaching its limits.

This creates a dangerous feedback loop. As the civilian economy weakens, the Kremlin relies more heavily on defence spending and state procurement to sustain output, employment and political control. The greater this reliance becomes, the harder it is for Russia to disengage from the war without triggering internal economic and political costs.


I think it summarises Russia's economic and financial problems rather well. Putin has been leading and continues to lead the Russian economy inexorably downwards.

In my opinion Putin should have abandoned the attack once it became clear that

(a) the Russian army was not the irresistable force it had been believed to be
(b) unlike with Crimea in 2014, the west was going to react seriously to the invasion

I think that invading Ukraine will be remembered as a miscalculation on Putin's part but his decision to enter into an extended war will be remembered as a monumental miscalculation.
 

Soldier30

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A Ukrainian army Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun was struck for the first time by a Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone. Previously, the Gepard air defense system had only been hit by Lancet drones. The Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun was developed and adopted by Germany in 1973. The Ukrainian Gepard air defense system was destroyed near the village of Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine.

 

Soldier30

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Footage of the strike by the Russian FPV drone "Prince Vandal of Novgorod" on a Ukrainian protected electrical transformer at the 330 kV Sumy-Severnaya substation. Note that the operator guided the drone and attacked the transformer, which was located in a concrete shelter. Reinforced concrete shelters are being built in Ukraine to protect electrical substations from Geran-2 drone strikes.

 

Spitfire9

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Russians are waking up to the economic catastrophe of Putin’s war​


So? Putin will just clamp down harder on expression of dissent, won't he? Russia is already organising state control of at least some of the facilities provided by the internet to citizens.

Once the state has sufficient control over use of internet services, I guess the internet blackouts will stop and citizens will be happier. It must be very inconvenient living in a digital society where the government stops it being digital now and then.
 

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