Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

USA has agreed to sell Ukraine a package of 1532 JDAM-ER kits and related equipment and sustainment for $373 million usd.

JDAM-ER is deadly accurate and has a max range of between 72-75KM and can be launched by both Ukraine's F-16 and Mig-29 aircraft. These guidance kits give Ukraine substantial capability in precision mid range strikes and they attached to much larger ordinance than GMLRS rockets with similar range.

US Approves $373 Million Precision Munitions Package for Ukraine

The US State Department has officially approved a potential sale of Joint Direct Attack Munition Extended Range (JDAM-ER) kits and related equipment to Ukraine.

united24media.com

 

[Iskander]

The myth that things were going well for Russia in its campaign against Ukraine has been dropped on state-controlled TV with an acknowledgement that Russian air defence is inadequate.

Unless I am mistaken, distribution of photos or videos by citizens showing the results of attacks on Russia is forbidden. Now we see the government-controlled media broadcasting such images to the whole nation. That is a major change.

With nominal losses of occupied Ukrainian territory starting recently, fragmentation of Russian air defences (partly due to the increased number and range of Ukrainian attack drones), the non-military production sector reported to have contracted for the last 11 months in a row and the 2026 government budget deficit out of control, things are not looking good for Russia,

First signs of the beginning of the end of the special military operation?

Since the beginning of the year, the situation has been changing in Ukraine's favor. Thanks to hundreds of thousands of small drones produced in cooperation with NATO countries, the Ukrainians have managed to halt the already slow advance of Russian troops. The Russians have already reached a dead end. The drones have turned the entire 15-20 kilometer front line into a "dead zone." It appears that with the increasing range of these simple, inexpensive, but extremely dangerous drones, this dead zone will deepen. Constantly attacking drones make it difficult even to supply troops at their positions, let alone launch any offensive.
There has also been a sharp increase in the number of strikes by Ukrainian long-range drones against military targets in Russia's interior, all the way to the Urals. The Russians are unable to counter them. This is due not only to the lack of air defenses; the ineffectiveness of the Russian Air Force is also evident. (After all, we've been seeing the Russians simply hiding their fleet for two years now.)
The Russian army is fighting primarily with weapons produced in the 1970s and 1980s. The Russian army—millions of ground troops, a navy, tens of thousands of tanks, and artillery—is clearly ineffective.
Overall, I believe the Russians are fighting at the limit of their capabilities. Moreover, this didn't happen this year; it became clear back in the fall of 2023.
The Russians' situation is deteriorating, and in my opinion, they can't improve it: they have nothing new. They also have no one, except an old KGB lieutenant colonel as commander-in-chief and completely incompetent generals, who could do anything about it!

 

[Soldier30]

A Ukrainian FP-1 drone crashed into a Latvian oil depot. Residents of the Latvian city of Rēzekne published footage of a Ukrainian FP-1 drone flying overhead. Information about FP-1 drones is available on the channel; they are currently being actively used by Ukraine. Previous media reports indicated that Ukrainian drones were using Latvian airspace to launch strikes on Russia's Leningrad Oblast. This is done to evade Russian air defense systems. For an unknown reason, most likely a GPS malfunction, one of the Ukrainian drones crashed into an East-West Transit oil depot. It is possible that the drone was shot down by Latvian air defenses. It is worth noting that such incidents could draw Latvia into a war between Russia and Ukraine.

 

[Spitfire9]

If Putin wanted the annual commemoration of victory in the Great Patriotic War to take place in Red Square in Moscow, why did he not accept the Ukrainian proposal of a ceasefire starting earlier? He might have avoided shipping lots of air defence systems to Moscow for the event. Now several targets elsewhere that needed air defence have had their defence weakened.

Russian “Missile Drought” Bites As Putin Pulls Back To Defend Moscow

Russians are increasingly complaining a shortage of surface-to-air missiles, while Putin pulls back units to form a defensive ring around a Moscow under drone assault.

www.forbes.com

 

[Spitfire9]

A Ukrainian FP-1 drone crashed into a Latvian oil depot. Residents of the Latvian city of Rēzekne published footage of a Ukrainian FP-1 drone flying overhead. Information about FP-1 drones is available on the channel; they are currently being actively used by Ukraine. Previous media reports indicated that Ukrainian drones were using Latvian airspace to launch strikes on Russia's Leningrad Oblast. This is done to evade Russian air defense systems. For an unknown reason, most likely a GPS malfunction, one of the Ukrainian drones crashed into an East-West Transit oil depot. It is possible that the drone was shot down by Latvian air defenses. It is worth noting that such incidents could draw Latvia into a war between Russia and Ukraine.

Latvia is playing the same game as Belarus, isn't it? According to my memory the attack on Ukraine involved Russian use of Belarus territory.

 

[MaciekRS]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2052292435502404081

Russian historian Yuri Pivovarov, April 2026: "I know nothing in Russia’s military history more disgraceful or more shameful than the current war. This is a Great Patriotic War of the Ukrainian people against an invader. Unfortunately, the invaders are our [Russian] people."

 

[Soldier30]

Greek authorities discovered a Ukrainian military naval drone, the Magura V3, off the coast of the island of Lefkada in the Ionian Sea. Local fishermen spotted the drone, its engine still running. The fishermen towed the drone to port and handed it over to the Greek Coast Guard. A preliminary examination revealed that the drone was equipped with detonators but did not contain any explosives. It's worth noting that the drone could not have come from the Black Sea, as it would have been detained by Turkish authorities. It can be assumed that Ukrainian naval drones are launched in the Mediterranean from unknown ships.

 

[Relic]

Pravda reporting that approximately $35.4 Billion usd of the $105 Billion usd loan from The European Union will be spent on drones, ammunition, artillery shells, missiles and air defense systems. The items will be procured throughout 2026 and 2027.

Of note, $7 Billion usd of that money will be spent on Ukraine's domestic drone industry in 2026. The money will produce 2.8 million drones of various types and uses, including more than 100,000 mid and long range attack drones.

The overwhelming number of armored vehicles, small arms, spare parts and other military equipment required is being provided through the individual budgets of Ukraine's 30+ Allies.

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

❗️Around €30 billion from the EU’s €90 billion loan for Ukraine in 2026 will fund drones, ammunition, missiles and air-defense systems, European Pravda reports. The first €5.9 billion tranche would buy 2.8 million Ukrainian-made drones. #Ukraine

bsky.app

 

[Iskander]

A few days ago, Putin called Trump and asked him to persuade Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire for several days, fearing that the Ukrainians would attack the "invincible" Russians during the so-called Victory Day Parade, held annually on May 9 in Moscow to commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany. In response, the Ukrainians further escalated their attacks on military installations deep within Russia, using long-range drones. Putin found himself in a bind, having already invited several heads of state to the parade and unable to cancel it: the Ukrainians could easily attack the parade, humiliating Putin among the guests. Apparently, behind-the-scenes negotiations took place, and the two sides agreed to a prisoner exchange of 1,000 prisoners each, in exchange for which Ukraine would guarantee not to attack Moscow during the ill-fated parade.
Furthermore, Zelenskyy, undoubtedly with the aim of humiliating Putin, issued an ironic decree.

Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 374/2026
"Considering numerous requests and for humanitarian purposes, as I outlined during negotiations with the American side on May 8, 2026, I hereby decree: to permit the parade to be held in Moscow (Russian Federation) on May 9, 2026."🫢

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://news.online.ua/en/zelenskyy-allowed-russia-to-hold-a-parade-on-may-9-in-moscow-decree-903880/&ved=2ahUKEwi5hMqfr6uUAxX5RfEDHZt0L0E4ChAWegQIKRAB&usg=AOvVaw3zIIM6uV9p9uChsSXkeieK

 

[Spitfire9]

IMO a good psychological move would have been to attack targets elsewhere in the Moscow region to remind all in Red Square that Ukraine is able to attack any target in Moscow if it wishes. They might lose all the drones concerned but air raid sirens and distant bangs will suggest to all invited spectators that Moscow is not in control of events.

 

[Spitfire9]

Ukraine and Sweden expect Gripen fighter jet deal 'within months'

Talks include up to 150 aircraft and interim supply of older jets as funding plans take shape

www.airdatanews.com

This would come too late to affect the war, wouldn't it? There is a consensus that Gripen suits Ukrainian needs better than other fighters, Early in the war Europe could have organised an initial Gripen capability for Ukraine by funding pilot and support staff training on Gripen C. Sweden could have supplied a couple of squadrons of SwAF Gripen C. SAAB could have completed and supplied the dozen incomplete Gripen C 'white tails' it was reported to have and more SwAF Gripen C aircraft could have been supplied as Gripen E entered SwAF service. Opportunity missed.

I see no urgency now for Ukraine to procure Gripen quickly since there is now a good number of used F-16 being passed on to Ukraine by European countries retiring them.

Ukraine to Receive 7 Belgian F-16s This Year, Total to Reach 53 by 2029 — Media | Defense Express

Belgian media have reported new details regarding Belgium's plans to supply F-16s to Ukraine. The number reportedly exceeds two dozen fighter jets — more than had been promised to Ukraine

en.defence-ua.com

However, if F-16 operation in Ukraine is very challenging it could be better to start the process of setting up for Gripen E operation ASAP.

 

[Spitfire9]

BBC reports that Putin has said the Ukraine war may be coming to an end.

Putin says he thinks Ukraine conflict 'coming to an end'

The Russian leader sees potential for Ukraine negotiations, but condemns the West's backing for President Zelensky.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't see it. There are Russian oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhia) partially held by Ukraine. Putin may regret annexing those oblasts - he can't agree to surrendering parts of Russia to Ukraine. Ukraine can't agree to surrendering Kherson, Zaporizhia to Russia. Impasse.

 

[mehmed beg]

BBC reports that Putin has said the Ukraine war may be coming to an end.

Putin says he thinks Ukraine conflict 'coming to an end'

The Russian leader sees potential for Ukraine negotiations, but condemns the West's backing for President Zelensky.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't see it. There are Russian oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhia) partially held by Ukraine. Putin may regret annexing those oblasts - he can't agree to surrendering parts of Russia to Ukraine. Ukraine can't agree to surrendering Kherson, Zaporizhia to Russia. Impasse.

He can scale down intensity of the operations

 

[contricusc]

BBC reports that Putin has said the Ukraine war may be coming to an end.

Translation: We are losing the war. Trump, please help us put an end to it while keeping the land we had already stolen. If the war continues like that, we will have no oil refining capability left, and our oil and gas exports would collapse. Trump, Help!

 

[Spitfire9]

Translation: We are losing the war. Trump, please help us put an end to it while keeping the land we had already stolen. If the war continues like that, we will have no oil refining capability left, and our oil and gas exports would collapse. Trump, Help!

Putin has the problem that he declared 2 Ukrainian oblasts to be part of Russia even though they were not completely occupied by Russian troops. How does he stop if that means leaving parts of these 2 new 'Russian' oblasts in Ukrainian hands?

A fine old mess Putin has got himself into.

The general view from what I read is that Putin is feeling less and less secure in his position and is starting to show signs of paranoid behaviour. Without some change for the better on the battlefield, in the country's economy and in the country's finances, where will Putin find himself in a few months' time? There seems to be growing uncertainty over what will happen with Putin and his war. While Trump may like and admire Putin, is it likely Trump will intervene to try to help Putin get out of the mess he has got himself into?

Personally I hope that Putin hangs on to power for a time and continues reducing Russia to an economic and financial wasteland. My hope is that if Putin goes his successor (a) will not want to continue the war (b) will not have the means to continue the war.

 

[Soldier30]

A battle between Russian soldiers and Ukrainian FPV drones and a bunker assault. Episodes of combat between Russian assault troops from the 80th Tank Regiment, Force Group Center, in the Dnipropetrovsk area. The video shows countering Ukrainian FPV drones in the field and storming a Ukrainian stronghold. It's worth noting that a single person can counter FPV drones with considerable risk. During the assault, Ukrainian FPV drones also attacked Russian soldiers. As a result of the battle, the Ukrainian underground stronghold was captured; footage from inside is shown at the end of the video. Some Ukrainian soldiers surrendered.

 

[Spitfire9]

Hopefully Ukraine takes back Donbass but its not going to easy.

If they take back Donbass no doubt there is going to be a long drawn out insurgency especially since that province is mainly Russians. I hope they can return Ukrainian refugees that fled there to come back. As long as Russians live there its going to be hard to control that place.

Overall I back Ukraine to take it back. If only they did not lose Crimea. Crimea is more important than Donbass.

With manipulation of the population over the years for political reasons, who knows whether the majority of people living in Donbas in 2014 wanted to remain as part of Ukraine. If they did not (and there is now a big majority in favour of being part of Russia) what is the point of tying to annexe the area back into Ukraine?

Russia is trying to impose its culture on parts of Ukraine it has occupied. Not a good idea. No better than Ukraine trying to impose its culture on areas of Russian culture it controls. As you say, a long, drawn out insurgency could be expected if Donbas ended up in Ukrainian hands.

 

[Spitfire9]

There are many reports of the internet being closed down now and then by the Russian government. This prevents electronic payments and use of ATM's to withdraw cash.

At the same time there are reports of heavy withdrawals from Russian banks, described by some as a 'bank run'. It may simply be that citizens are withdrawing large amounts of cash and keeping a large stock of cash to ensure they can buy things when the internet is down.

Internet blackouts are, by nature, disastrous for Russian online businesses, reducing turnover during blackouts to zero.

Russia's tightening grip on internet fuels public discontent

Officials say the restrictions are for public safety, but businesses and the public are feeling the impact.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Soldier30]

Scenes from Russian air defense operations during the repelling of a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow and the Moscow region on May 17-18. Pantsir-S1/SM and Tor-M2 air defense systems were used to repel the attack. The air defenses performed well, but it was impossible to shoot down all the drones. Over the course of 24 hours, the Pantsir-S and Tor-M2 air defense systems shot down over 120 Ukrainian drones. It's worth noting that defending targets across Russia is impossible, as the country doesn't have that many air defense systems. This is currently considered the largest Ukrainian drone attack. The Ukrainian army used the Bars kamikaze jet drone, the FP-1 kamikaze UAV, the An-196 Lyuty, and other models in the attack.

 

[Passenger]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2056172223355056233