Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[MaciekRS]

Lets hope it was that Mi-28

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2049502307587432791

 

[Iskander]

This morning, news agencies brought the sad news: Russia's most famous soldier, Chmonya, died heroically in Ukraine. Chmonya (Andrey Ryazantsev) was captured during the first year of the war. The circumstances of Chmonya's capture are unclear, but according to Ukrainians, it occurred in the fall of 2022, during the heroic Russian retreat from Izyum, when tall, brave Russian paratroopers fled in terror before the advancing Ukrainian soldiers, abandoning everything—armored personnel carriers, tanks, weapons, even rifles and body armor. It was at that moment, as the Russians fled in terror, that Chmonya was abandoned
Everyone fled except Chmonya. He is very short—only 150 cm—so, according to him, he didn't even try to escape, but sat calmly and waited for the Ukrainian soldiers.

And so, Russia's most famous warrior, its most famous meme hero, Chmonya, found himself in inglorious captivity.

In fact, he only became a hero after his capture.
According to Ukrainians and the testimony of the most famous Russian occupier, no one treated him badly in captivity; on the contrary, he was well fed, so well that he even gained a little weight. However, he didn't grow at all.

Six months after his capture, he was exchanged and returned home to his native village.
But just a few weeks later, Chmonya, by then already a celebrity, was drafted into the army and sent back to war.

While Ukrainian military websites write extensively about him, Russian sources, by contrast, provide no information about Chmonya's military exploits, not a word about the circumstances of his death—only a brief statement: mobilized in 2022, died heroically in 2026

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://apostrophe.ua/ru/society/geroya-memov-chmonyu-snova-otpravili-na-front-v-seti-uje-obyyavili-voznagrajdenie-za-ego-povtornyiy-plen-video.html&ved=2ahUKEwiq5qnikJWUAxX3cPEDHcEoOfcQFnoECDoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0Ahv4_sjHDYbu3YICC9V5h

They nicknamed her Chmonya, inspired by the name of the poor little kitten that became a meme on the internet. Don't confuse her with the famous kitten when searching.

 

[Soldier30]

Residents of Odessa have published footage of strikes by Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drones. According to media reports, the strikes targeted Ukrainian port and industrial infrastructure, as well as other city targets. Multiple fires have been reported in Odessa as a result of the Russian drone strikes.

 

[Spitfire9]

It seems that the financial and economic situation in Russia has taken a turn for the worse. According to Russian commentator Konstantin via a source within Russia, Q1 2026 tax take is 22% below Q1 2025 tax take. This may indicate a combination of a deterioration in company profits / a large number of businesses closing down / a fall in consumer spending.

The URL posted here appeared to be altered from the one I posted, so has been deleted.

The fall in tax take would tie in with year on year monthly GDP growth starting to fall into negative territory. The March growth figure may be a misleading distortion of actual GDP during the month due to Russia selling at a high price per barrel the large amount of crude that was being stored in tankers on the high seas. The US lifted sanctions for the sale of that stored crude.

Russia Monthly GDP YoY

Monthly GDP YoY in Russia increased to 1.80 percent in March from -1.10 percent in February of 2026. This page includes a chart with historical data for Russia Monthly GDP YoY.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Relic]

USA finally released $400 million usd worth of military aid funding today that Congress approved in December 2025. The funds will be spent on "high priority weapons" such as air defense missiles, GMLRS and 155mm artillery shells produced by American industry.

Mitch McConnell Says Pentagon 'Stonewalled' Senators As $400 Million Ukraine Aid Remains Frozen 'Collecting Dust' For Months

Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is accusing the Pentagon of delaying $400 million in Ukraine military aid that Congress authorized, putting new pressure on Defense Department p...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Soldier30]

Strikes by Russian Geran-2 drones in western Ukraine. Videos were filmed by local residents on May 1-2. More than 60 Geran-2 drones were spotted over the city of Ternopil. The Russian Geran-2 drones struck the Ukrainian Orion radio plant, as well as industrial and infrastructure facilities, according to the city's mayor.

 

[Soldier30]

The Ukrainian FP-1 UAV has begun to be used as a carrier for FPV drones. Judging by the video, the FP-1 UAV can carry two FPV drones. The FPV drones lack a warhead, possibly for reconnaissance. The UAV is also used as a communications relay, equipped with a Starlink terminal. Technical specifications are not yet available. It's worth noting that UAVs carrying FPV drones are also used by the Russian military.

 

[Relic]

Canada announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today valued at $270 million usd. The package will consist of funding towards a PURL package for priority weapons from USA .

Canada commits $270M to Ukraine as Carney addresses European summit in Armenia

YEREVAN - Prime Minister Mark Carney says his government will contribute $270 million to help Ukraine secure critical military capabilities in its defence against Russia’s full-scale invasion.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

Meanwhile, the European Union has officially announced that the first tranche of their upcoming loan to Ukraine wil be released in the coming weeks in the amount of $7 Billion usd. The entirety the $7 Billion usd will be used to bolster Ukraine's domestic drone industry that continues to unleash severe economic punishment on Russia.

Ukraine's capacity to build more drones and further develop their domestic drone industry is significant. Production capacity can nearly double in the short term. They have simply been limited by funding. This $7 Billion usd injection will allow them to significantly bolster the industry heading into the summer months.

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[Spitfire9]

Ukraine's capacity to build more drones and further develop their domestic drone industry is significant. Production capacity can nearly double in the short term. They have simply been limited by funding. This $7 Billion usd injection will allow them to significantly bolster the industry heading into the summer months.

A big increase in Ukraine drone production could really intensify Russia's problems in exporting crude and refining crude both for internal use and export. I look forward to Russian government revenues from the sector possibly falling to their lowest level for many years.

If revenue from oil shrinks substantially and Russia has great difficulty finding buyers for its gold, the outlook for Russian government finances looks to become worse and worse. I imagine that the government is already paying its employees late, freezing infrastructure projects, paying contractors late etc - doing all it can to reduce non-war spending.

As a corrupt kleptocracy, businesses can be seized by the government and sold to favoured oligarchs, assets of oligarchs whose loyalty to Putin has weakened can be seized and sold, the funds in bank deposit accounts can be seized partially or totally through conversion into government bonds etc etc but such acts look like acts of desperation to me.

In my opinion something mitigates Putin's inability to face failure in his special military operation. As a consequence he weakens Russia further and further, making a repeat of Russian invasion of a neighbouring country less and less probable in the future. For that reason I hope Putin continues to inflict greater and greater damage to his country by continuing to pursue a lost cause for as long as he can.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike in Cheboksary. The missile strike was filmed from several angles. The strike hit the administrative building of the Russian VNIIR-Progress plant. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted five of the six missiles. One of the Ukrainian drones was also recorded striking a residential building, which is typically caused by a GPS glitch, as shown at the end of the video.

 

[500]

Have drones now reached the point where infantry can no longer operate effectively near front lines? Ukraine and Russia are now producing very large numbers of FPV drones. Those drones can target individual soldiers, reportedly with a high chance of neutralising them.

I suspect that warfare involving infantry has been changed radically due to the advent of FPV drones, particularly since FPV drones can be produced and fielded at low cost.

Neither Russia not Ukraine have a modern air force. Air support can overcome drones.

 

[500]

I made this chart how the Russian occupied territory of Ukraine (in percent) changed over time.

Does not include territories occupied by Russia in 2014.

 

[Passenger]

First Russian petroleum reaches Japan since Iran war​

A major Japanese oil company has acknowledged obtaining petroleum from Russia for the first time since the Strait of Hormuz was sealed off in the Iran war.

Officials of Taiyo Oil Co. said a tanker loaded with petroleum from Sakhalin-2, an oil and gas extraction project, anchored near the company’s Shikoku office in Imabari, Ehime Prefecture, on May 4.

While the volume was not divulged, officials said they had received a request from the economy ministry to take in the petroleum.

Japan acquires about 90 percent of its petroleum through the now-blockaded Strait of Hormuz, and officials had been seeking alternative sources.

Russian petroleum had been subject of Western economic sanctions since Moscow invaded Ukraine, but Sakhalin-2 is exempted.

Japan also buys liquified natural gas (LNG) from Sakhalin-2, and petroleum is produced along with the LNG.

LNG production would be halted if tanks holding petroleum became full. Japanese government officials had lobbied for allowing Sakhalin-2 petroleum to be exempted from the sanctions.

First Russian petroleum reaches Japan since Iran war | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of strikes by Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drones on Ukrainian military boats in the waters of the port of Odesa. The drones were directly controlled by operators. As a result of the Geran-2 drone attack, a Ukrainian Project 58155 Gyurza-M armored artillery boat and an Island-class patrol boat were destroyed. Island-class boats were previously used by the US Coast Guard; they were decommissioned in 2017 and transferred to Ukraine.

 

[Spitfire9]

The myth that things were going well for Russia in its campaign against Ukraine has been dropped on state-controlled TV with an acknowledgement that Russian air defence is inadequate.

Unless I am mistaken, distribution of photos or videos by citizens showing the results of attacks on Russia is forbidden. Now we see the government-controlled media broadcasting such images to the whole nation. That is a major change.

With nominal losses of occupied Ukrainian territory starting recently, fragmentation of Russian air defences (partly due to the increased number and range of Ukrainian attack drones), the non-military production sector reported to have contracted for the last 11 months in a row and the 2026 government budget deficit out of control, things are not looking good for Russia,

First signs of the beginning of the end of the special military operation?

 

[Relic]

USA has agreed to sell Ukraine a package of 1532 JDAM-ER kits and related equipment and sustainment for $373 million usd.

JDAM-ER is deadly accurate and has a max range of between 72-75KM and can be launched by both Ukraine's F-16 and Mig-29 aircraft. These guidance kits give Ukraine substantial capability in precision mid range strikes and they attached to much larger ordinance than GMLRS rockets with similar range.

US Approves $373 Million Precision Munitions Package for Ukraine

The US State Department has officially approved a potential sale of Joint Direct Attack Munition Extended Range (JDAM-ER) kits and related equipment to Ukraine.

united24media.com

 

[Iskander]

The myth that things were going well for Russia in its campaign against Ukraine has been dropped on state-controlled TV with an acknowledgement that Russian air defence is inadequate.

Unless I am mistaken, distribution of photos or videos by citizens showing the results of attacks on Russia is forbidden. Now we see the government-controlled media broadcasting such images to the whole nation. That is a major change.

With nominal losses of occupied Ukrainian territory starting recently, fragmentation of Russian air defences (partly due to the increased number and range of Ukrainian attack drones), the non-military production sector reported to have contracted for the last 11 months in a row and the 2026 government budget deficit out of control, things are not looking good for Russia,

First signs of the beginning of the end of the special military operation?

Since the beginning of the year, the situation has been changing in Ukraine's favor. Thanks to hundreds of thousands of small drones produced in cooperation with NATO countries, the Ukrainians have managed to halt the already slow advance of Russian troops. The Russians have already reached a dead end. The drones have turned the entire 15-20 kilometer front line into a "dead zone." It appears that with the increasing range of these simple, inexpensive, but extremely dangerous drones, this dead zone will deepen. Constantly attacking drones make it difficult even to supply troops at their positions, let alone launch any offensive.
There has also been a sharp increase in the number of strikes by Ukrainian long-range drones against military targets in Russia's interior, all the way to the Urals. The Russians are unable to counter them. This is due not only to the lack of air defenses; the ineffectiveness of the Russian Air Force is also evident. (After all, we've been seeing the Russians simply hiding their fleet for two years now.)
The Russian army is fighting primarily with weapons produced in the 1970s and 1980s. The Russian army—millions of ground troops, a navy, tens of thousands of tanks, and artillery—is clearly ineffective.
Overall, I believe the Russians are fighting at the limit of their capabilities. Moreover, this didn't happen this year; it became clear back in the fall of 2023.
The Russians' situation is deteriorating, and in my opinion, they can't improve it: they have nothing new. They also have no one, except an old KGB lieutenant colonel as commander-in-chief and completely incompetent generals, who could do anything about it!