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Final Article Turkiye 2040: Threshold, Friction, and the Limits of Systemic Power By 2040, Turkiye will no longer be a peripheral actor. Its ascent has been neither accidental nor merely symbolic; years of strategic focus, technological investment, and regional engagement have positioned it...

Article VI External Friction and Systemic Pushback: When the System Begins to Push Back (2025–2040) There is a persistent misconception in power analysis: that resistance emerges when a state becomes aggressive. In reality, resistance emerges when a state becomes effective. The international...

Article V Domestic Absorption Capacity: Why Power Sometimes Plateaus Before Becoming Prosperity Power is often discussed as something that must be acquired, expanded, or projected. Far less attention is paid to what happens after power arrives. Yet history suggests that the decisive phase for...

Article IV Geopolitical Conversion Arenas: How Turkiye Turns Influence into Structural Power (2025–2040) Introduction: Power Does Not Convert in a Vacuum Power accumulation, as established in the previous articles, is a necessary but insufficient condition for long-term national advancement...

Article III The Political Economy of Conversion: Why Some Power Translates into Wealth—and Some Doesn’t The Central Question No One Likes to Ask By now, one fact should be uncontroversial: Turkiye has influence. What remains deeply contested—and often emotionally charged—is whether that...

Article II Quantitative Scenarios for Turkiye (2025–2040): From Influence to Income 1. Why Scenarios Matter More Than Forecasts Macroeconomic forecasting fails most precisely where it matters most: at structural turning points. Turkiye is currently at such a point. Point estimates—single GDP...

Article I Turkiye as a Threshold Power: From Middle Power to Systemic Actor 1. Introduction: The Misreading of Turkiye Most contemporary analyses still approach Turkiye through outdated binaries: West vs. East, democracy vs. authoritarianism, NATO ally vs. revisionist actor. These frames are...

Turkiye 2025–2040: An Introduction to a Power Projection Why This Series, and Why Now: Most texts written about TR (Turkish Republic) fall into one of two lazy extremes. Either they lean toward excessive optimism, bordering on narrative building rather than analysis, or they reduce the country...

In 2024, or early 2025, Selçuk Bayraktar shared some screens from the operator console interface while sharing the concept of Kızılelma fleet autonomy at a conference. Although yesterday's social media post generated a lot of buzz, this and much more had already been presented to the public much...

When communication jamming actually occurs, I am genuinely curious about the operational effectiveness of these wingman concepts. When two air forces with equally high electronic warfare capabilities face each other, especially during a night in full stealth profile, dozens of these possible...

One thing BAYKAR has made us accustomed to is that once their systems reach a certain number of flight test hours, other validation and performance tests follow one after another at lightning speed. One of the key factors behind Baykar's rise from among many traditional aviation giants to become...

The size of the contract may indirectly indicate a very large-scale infrastructure investment. I believe that line and base maintenance levels are already indispensable requirements for the air force. However, if there are plans to supply additional fighters in future packages, I do not rule out...

Another topic that is not given enough importance in our media: breakthroughs will also be experienced within the air wing of the aircraft carrier group just like air defense systems and other naval-related industrial. Multiple variants will be developed based on two main types (KE and ANKA) of...

For our aviation industry to gain global competitiveness and for strategic competence in domestic needs, the mid-weight turbofan for combatants was one of the critical issues, even though it was not voiced much. Also, this development program will probably be a naturally navalized turbofan from...

Nevertheless, TB3s can carry a magnetic anomaly detector, a compact multi-mode SAR/LDAR, a standard FLIR hardware capable of capturing exhaust streams, and ELINT payloads for some transmission intercepts, such a sensor package can significantly increase the tactical picture coverage and accuracy...

This is very critical. If Turkish companies, which can offer fast, efficient and quantity solutions to meet Europe's defense and security needs, are included in EU defense programs, this could pave the way for Turkiye to become a production hub and provide a very important plus factor for Europe...

Baykar already has a drone design activity in the heavier class. I think we will find out by the end of the year or around 2026 whether this will be derived from AKINCI or whether it will be a completely new airframe. One of my conclusions is that Baykar will share the risk with Leonardo for...

The speculated 600km offers an incredible engagement radius for a coastal defense battery. If we can also see of anti-surface/ship variant of the TAYFUN TBM too, Turkish A2AD capability will be a game breaker for all near seas. Because we all know that there is a similar breakthrough in air...

I think there was a defenseturkey article years ago with a list of test systems and test centers that are and will be established under the KAAN program, I searched a bit but I couldn't find it. However, we already know about the Lightning Test Facility, I wonder if this facility can also be...

When the components of the OTS are physically bordering countries, with Central Asia gaining access to the open seas through the Turkish navy, the OTS is certainly poised to become a power center, which ironically will create a useful paradigm for world peace as it will create a buffer zone...