TR 2023 Turkish presidential election

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Rooxbar

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Another nice graphic to show how a decrease in Central Bank lending interest rates not only doesn't necessarily lead to lower interest rates on deposits and borrowings from commercial banks, when your economy is diseased it can actually have the averse effect of increasing it temporarily, translating to free money for Bankers.

1682206394510.png
 

GoatsMilk

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Another nice graphic to show how a decrease in Central Bank lending interest rates not only doesn't necessarily lead to lower interest rates on deposits and borrowings from commercial banks, when your economy is diseased it can actually have the averse effect of increasing it temporarily, translating to free money for Bankers.

View attachment 56502

How long do you think this situation can be maintained for?
 

Rooxbar

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How long do you think this situation can be maintained for?
Couple of months. Only thing that can stop it is a change in expectations on fiscal policy and inflation, i.e. change of administration. But whoever comes along will have a very hard time. All the over-promising KK is doing right now will come back to bite him badly.
 

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America as I said (and you should learn from their latest coup attempts in Venezuela) is not an omnipotent god. Even if you give them that kind of power, then that omnipotence should help them destroy economies of countries they actually try to destroy with severe sanctions, like Russia and Iran. Turkey's economy is nowhere near under the same amount of pressure from the west as Russia or Iran's is, and our inflation in the past 3 years laps them 5 times.
Russia and Iran had Oil and gas

USA can destroy industrisl countries such as Japan or Korean Economy far easier than Russia and Iran

BTW Turkiye had large trade deficit and lacking the global brand are the largest problem.

interest rate or inflation is not a problem if TOGG(for example) can sell 10 million cars to the world every year.
 

B_A

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How long do you think this situation can be maintained for?
Until we get current account surplus.

The basic problem is our current account deficit.Interest rate cant change this,Argentina central bank hikes interest rate to 81% but no help.

Russia or iran enjoy current account surplus beacuse of oil.
 

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View attachment 56501

For our Nigerian friend's consumption: this graphic shows the correlation between Erdoğan's decision to lower interest rates for Central Bank's lending to banks and USD/TL exchange rate, increase of the latter is the main culprit for inflation. Inflation in turn in itself should lead to more increase in exchange rate which would be catastrophic so the government tries to control it through selling dollars which means TL in comparison to inflation gains real value against currencies of trading partners. Selling dollars by central bank, and increase in real value of TL and a double rate for foreign currency (resulting from capital controls to contain the increase in exchange rate) with special access to lower rates to wealthy well-connected importers, all increase the appeal of imports as opposed to exports; this in turn leads to current account deficit, leading to further pressure on the local currency, which makes the government need even more dollars to sell to stop it which means the government has to borrow more, and since inflation is high and current account deficit is also high, the government only can borrow at high rates due to bad credit score which leads to increasing foreign debt, increasing the risk of default in turn coming full circle and feeding into expectation of inflation (leading to pressure on exchange rate, more selling of dollars, more borrowing, worse credit score, more current account deficit) and the catch-22 that has only bankruptcy and defaut at the end of the tunnel. And all of these defense industry projects that everyone thinks are finished after the first prototype tests and you applaud as a sign of progress (which they are) will not see the light of day in terms of mass production in this scenario since you have to go for austerity measures after your inevitable default on debts and bankruptcy.
Argentina central bank hikes interest rate to 81% but the situtation worse.
 

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I don't care who you fool outside of Turkey.

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Mansur Yavaş is my man.
Mansur Yavas is actually quite good till now. If he runs for president, then I believe he deserves a chance
But sadly, while Yavas wants to use the drones, his other party members think otherwise and Yavas alone cant change the collective thought process of the CHP since assholes like Imamoglu and Kilicdaroglu are there

Iam actually infavour of Yavas starting his own party which I think will succeed a loot tbh but as long as Yavas remains overshadowed by other CHP party members, then what use is his talents and patriotism
 

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The choice is between the two worst candidates. Cumhur Ittifak is officially in an alliance with seperatist islamist terrorists (Hizbullah), is flooding the country on purpose with 3rd world people, deep in corruption etc., Millet Ittifak has many shady mf's in their ranks with even more shady statements, their is no clear political/ideological line and also Kilicdaroglu's questionable pick of advisors, which doesn't give me any good vibes.

The better pick is obvious but the country seriously needs a THIRD option.
 

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The choice is between the two worst candidates. Cumhur Ittifak is officially in an alliance with seperatist islamist terrorists (Hizbullah), is flooding the country on purpose with 3rd world people, deep in corruption etc., Millet Ittifak has many shady mf's in their ranks with even more shady statements, their is no clear political/ideological line and also Kilicdaroglu's questionable pick of advisors, which doesn't give me any good vibes.

The better pick is obvious but the country seriously needs a THIRD option.
Iam not that worried about HUDA PAR tbh
No matter how they try to act "important", they wont gain anything post elections since their electoral vote at the end is only 1% and they arent even popular with the Turkish populace
IMO, it is probably a move to try and take more people from the HDP into their ranks post-election posing as a kurdish party with relations to the ruling party and nothing more

I understood when Meral Aksener asked HUDA PAR to join them since each and every vote makes a difference for the underdogs but with the AKP, their significance is way less to influence decision-making post elections
 

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lol

Millet alliance asked HUDA par to join them but they have refused :), now they are boogey.HUDA do not demand autnomy like pkk what millet alliances will give. Mansur should talk about the signed agreements then empty talks to own people, chp will give like they have gived Istanbul to pkk members:).
 

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In the southeastern provinces, ballot box security is one of the biggest problems regarding İnce's and Oğan's votes.


I wish the police forces to identify the son of a sewer rat whose maternal uncle become yellow bag and threatens the public on the street.
His whole families citizenship should be taken and immediately deported out. Imagine the US threatened to revoke the citizenship of Americans that worked in Chinese semiconductor companies if they do not quit their jobs and return home.

But we have to feed thousands of terrorists and also have them in our Parliament. But if you ask them we are the fascists...
 
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ADMusa

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America as I said (and you should learn from their latest coup attempts in Venezuela) is not an omnipotent god. Even if you give them that kind of power, then that omnipotence should help them destroy economies of countries they actually try to destroy with severe sanctions, like Russia and Iran. Turkey's economy is nowhere near under the same amount of pressure from the west as Russia or Iran's is, and our inflation in the past 3 years laps them 5 times.
Russia has a commodity the world needs. Turkey doesn't have that - at least not as much as Russia's. The West has used EVERY SINGLE covert tool possible to damage Turkey's economy. They want the Turks to think it's Erdogan's incompetence, not a Western attack. This is why they do everything possible to hide their involvement. Only their Gulf Arab puppets were overt until late 2021. Even the threat of sanctions alone is damaging because it reduces the confidence of investors. Few Westerners would want to invest in a country under constant sanctions threats by the West.

Their media propaganda also constantly whips up scary tales of how people having medical or cosmetic operations die in Turkey, or terrorist bomb threats, or how someone sold their house and moved to Turkey but regrets it, etc. They've also been spreading the fear that Turkish cities are unsafe due to weak buildings and earthquake faultlines. They exploit every single incident to target Turkey's economy. I've noticed an uptick in their efforts to target Turkey's tourism industry, which is an important source of foreign hard currency. I can remember Turkiye retaliating covertly against Europe by holding up oil tankers in the black sea, which forced the Europeans to back down from one of their covert attacks.

They always complain about Turkiye, demonizing its leaders as bad, incompetent, and autocratic. Is it any of their business if Turkey's leaders are mismanaging the economy? I guess they love Turkey so much that they don't want anything or anyone harming its economy. How about they should start by ending their support for the PKK throughout the Middle East? They equate Erdogan to Putin and sometimes call Putin a dictator - which implies Erdogan is a dictator too. But they are silent about the murderous dictator right across from Turkey. They have also officially discouraged Western companies from investing in Turkiye or expanding their operations. I can remember a time when some Western governments warned their citizens that their investing in Turkiye would be risky due to the possibility of sanctions.

Why would Syria be so important to Europe that they place an arms embargo on Turkiye? See how Europe also threatens Turkiye with sanctions over Greece and Cyprus. These are all economic attacks. I once read an economist who said Erdogan could usually get Trump to ease the pressure on the Turkish Lira with a single phone call. Trum once threaten to destroy Turkey's economy TOTALLY. He also placed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey. However, the real damage to Turkey's economy doesn't come from the official sanctions and embargoes. It comes from the unofficial attack on the Lira from Washington. Erdogan once said to them that they cannot confine Turkiye's economic prosperity to exchange rates. This means he intends to insulate the Turkish Lira from external manipulations similar to what the Chinese did.

Have you ever investigated why PayPal left Turkiye? It wasn't because of the new law requiring payment processors to have physical presence in Turkey. It was political. Anyone who thinks Turkiye's economic problems are internal not external didn't take the time to dig deep into the matter. Had Europe not invested over $120 billion in Turkiye prior to 2013, the attack would have been more damaging. But they can't go too far without shooting themselves in the foot.
 
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Heartbang

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Russia has a commodity the world needs. Turkey doesn't have that - at least not as much as Russia's. The West has used EVERY SINGLE covert tool possible to damage Turkey's economy. They want the Turks to think it's Erdogan's incompetence, not a Western attack. This is why they do everything possible to hide their involvement. Only their Gulf Arab puppets were overt until late 2021. Even the threat of sanctions alone is damaging because it reduces the confidence of investors. Few Westerners would want to invest in a country under constant sanctions threats by the West.

Their media propaganda also constantly whips up scary tales of how people having medical or cosmetic operations die in Turkey, or terrorist bomb threats, or how someone sold their house and moved to Turkey but regrets it, etc. They've also been spreading the fear that Turkish cities are unsafe due to weak buildings and earthquake faultlines. They exploit every single incident to target Turkey's economy. I've noticed an uptick in their efforts to target Turkey's tourism industry, which is an important source of foreign hard currency. I can remember Turkiye retaliating covertly against Europe by holding up oil tankers in the black sea, which forced the Europeans to back down from one of their covert attacks.

They always complain about Turkiye, demonizing its leaders as bad, incompetent, and autocratic. Is it any of their business if Turkey's leaders are mismanaging the economy? I guess they love Turkey so much that they don't want anything or anyone harming its economy. How about they should start by ending their support for the PKK throughout the Middle East? They equate Erdogan to Putin and sometimes call Putin a dictator - which implies Erdogan is a dictator too. But they are silent about the murderous dictator right across from Turkey. They have also officially discouraged Western companies from investing in Turkiye or expanding their operations. I can remember a time when some Western governments warned their citizens that their investing in Turkiye would be risky due to the possibility of sanctions.

Why would Syria be so important to Europe that they place an arms embargo on Turkiye? See how Europe also threatens Turkiye with sanctions over Greece and Cyprus. These are all economic attacks. I once read an economist who said Erdogan could usually get Trump to ease the pressure on the Turkish Lira with a single phone call. Trum once threaten to destroy Turkey's economy TOTALLY. He also placed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey. However, the real damage to Turkey's economy doesn't come from the official sanctions and embargoes. It comes from the unofficial attack on the Lira from Washington. Erdogan once said to them that they cannot confine Turkiye's economic prosperity to exchange rates. This means he intends to insulate the Turkish Lira from external manipulations similar to what the Chinese did.

Have you ever investigated why PayPal left Turkiye? It wasn't because of the new law requiring payment processors to have physical presence in Turkey. It was political. Anyone who thinks Turkiye's economic problems are internal not external didn't take the time to dig deep into the matter. Had Europe not invested over $120 billion in Turkiye prior to 2013, the attack would have been more damaging. But they can't go too far without shooting themselves in the foot.
Well said. It would be downright stupid to write off the possibility of economic attacks towards our heavenly nation. Especially after seeing what happened with the GameStop debacle. Bunch of "monşers" got caught with their pants off trying to profit from the downfall of a company. There are many more, beefier monşer scum who are trying to profit from our misery.

We should implement necessary mechanisms to retaliate in kind. Tendies must be weaponized!
 

ADMusa

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They could destroy Turkiyes economy with relatively few sanctions, look at Trump during the pastor/halk bank scandal as an example.


The economy and its terrible performance is based on erdoeconomics and rampant corruption from top to bottom. The recovery process during the first 5 to 7 years was developed primarily by kemal dervis, a real economist with international accreditation. Once AK party left that behind the economy kept getting worse and worse and looking forward if he wins you can guarantee that Turkiye becomes a poorer and poorer country. So a vote for AK party 100% means that the average Turkish citizen will be made poorer. We have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that this man knows anything about state economics. Putting his pathetic other son in law in charge of the central bank exposed how lacking this man is as a statesman.

But on a side note the reason the Americans can't go down the line of destroying the Turkish economy outright is for several reasons. Too many western corporations make good business from Turkiye, so destroying the Turkish economy will economically cost the USA/West money.

Then their is the geopolitics, nearly the entire middle east doesn't like the Americans operating there. Outside pkk terrorists and a few lackeys dictators the americans are seen as two faced instigating trouble makers of the region and the biggest supporter of isreal, which outside Turkiye is generally despised by the rest of the middle east. Go after Turkiye's economy and the Americans will be dumped out of Turkiye and most likely their entire position in the region will come into question.

Then they lose the advantage of Turkiye geography being used to contain Russia. So they won't go after Turkiye's economy what they will do is things like feto, take the country from within and people will not even notice it.

Sanctions and embargoes can only ever be used to a degree to manipulate Turkish actions in the direction that favours US regional policy. They go too far and their entire position in the region is undermined.

But as far as this terrible economy is concerned its 90% rests on AK party and terrible performance.
America's economic attacks on Turkey are only intended to oust the AKP. That's the goal. It is Biden's top mission currently. Before making false claims about Kemal Dervis being responsible for Turkiye's past economic prosperity, I would advise you to read Western authors, especially economists, on how Erdogan revolutionized Turkiye's economy. And then you want us to believe that a leader who worked so hard to build a country's economy starts mismanaging it out of incompetence, especially when there are clues of foreign economic attacks everywhere. Read Western authors on Erdogan's reformation of Turkiye's economy. If you don't know any sources, let me know, and I'll provide enough.

Even threats of sanctions can cost countries billions of dollars. It's one of the covert sanction tools America uses.

Turkey is very important to the U.S. due to Turkiye's growing abilities to militarily thwart America's designs on the Muslim world, like what it did to defeat Haftar in Libya, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and Saudi Arabia in Qatar. The West will never rest until they get rid of the Islamists in Turkey (as they call us). There is also Turkey's soft power in the Sunni Muslim world. Erdogan is the beloved leader of Sunni Muslims worldwide (check the Arab barometer). As a Muslim, I wish Mecca and Madinah were under Turkiye's control, not the despots in Riyadh. At least, the billions that come from Hajj would be put to better use, and Erdogan will do a much better job of uniting Muslims.

Allah promised to make every Muslim be loved by the believers if the Muslim feared Allah. Obviously, Erdogan has earned that favour (for now).
 
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Ryder

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Russia has a commodity the world needs. Turkey doesn't have that - at least not as much as Russia's. The West has used EVERY SINGLE covert tool possible to damage Turkey's economy. They want the Turks to think it's Erdogan's incompetence, not a Western attack. This is why they do everything possible to hide their involvement. Only their Gulf Arab puppets were overt until late 2021. Even the threat of sanctions alone is damaging because it reduces the confidence of investors. Few Westerners would want to invest in a country under constant sanctions threats by the West.

Their media propaganda also constantly whips up scary tales of how people having medical or cosmetic operations die in Turkey, or terrorist bomb threats, or how someone sold their house and moved to Turkey but regrets it, etc. They've also been spreading the fear that Turkish cities are unsafe due to weak buildings and earthquake faultlines. They exploit every single incident to target Turkey's economy. I've noticed an uptick in their efforts to target Turkey's tourism industry, which is an important source of foreign hard currency. I can remember Turkiye retaliating covertly against Europe by holding up oil tankers in the black sea, which forced the Europeans to back down from one of their covert attacks.

They always complain about Turkiye, demonizing its leaders as bad, incompetent, and autocratic. Is it any of their business if Turkey's leaders are mismanaging the economy? I guess they love Turkey so much that they don't want anything or anyone harming its economy. How about they should start by ending their support for the PKK throughout the Middle East? They equate Erdogan to Putin and sometimes call Putin a dictator - which implies Erdogan is a dictator too. But they are silent about the murderous dictator right across from Turkey. They have also officially discouraged Western companies from investing in Turkiye or expanding their operations. I can remember a time when some Western governments warned their citizens that their investing in Turkiye would be risky due to the possibility of sanctions.

Why would Syria be so important to Europe that they place an arms embargo on Turkiye? See how Europe also threatens Turkiye with sanctions over Greece and Cyprus. These are all economic attacks. I once read an economist who said Erdogan could usually get Trump to ease the pressure on the Turkish Lira with a single phone call. Trum once threaten to destroy Turkey's economy TOTALLY. He also placed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey. However, the real damage to Turkey's economy doesn't come from the official sanctions and embargoes. It comes from the unofficial attack on the Lira from Washington. Erdogan once said to them that they cannot confine Turkiye's economic prosperity to exchange rates. This means he intends to insulate the Turkish Lira from external manipulations similar to what the Chinese did.

Have you ever investigated why PayPal left Turkiye? It wasn't because of the new law requiring payment processors to have physical presence in Turkey. It was political. Anyone who thinks Turkiye's economic problems are internal not external didn't take the time to dig deep into the matter. Had Europe not invested over $120 billion in Turkiye prior to 2013, the attack would have been more damaging. But they can't go too far without shooting themselves in the foot.

Gulf Arab countries get away from sanctions because they have money.

They can turn anybody into their b*tch. Thats why Congress barely says anything to them.

Turkiye is not as rich as Jews and Gulf Arabs hence why the constant sanctions and embargoes.

We are a punching bag because we are poor.
 

Lool

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Gulf Arab countries get away from sanctions because they have money.

They can turn anybody into their b*tch. Thats why Congress barely says anything to them.

Turkiye is not as rich as Jews and Gulf Arabs hence why the constant sanctions and embargoes.

We are a punching bag because we are poor.
That is why the West were trying to do anything to prevent Turkey from obtaining national gas and oil reserves
From pitting Greece against Turkey in the East Med to providing fake data about the oil/gas reserves in the black sea during previous Western-backed explorations long ago
Rumors even states that the Western states where trying to electronically jam Turkish ships' navigators in an effort to prevent them from digging the wells of Sakarya gas field in their appropriate places

Such lovely allies does Turkey have, I swear
 

Angry Turk !!!

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That is why the West were trying to do anything to prevent Turkey from obtaining national gas and oil reserves
From pitting Greece against Turkey in the East Med to providing fake data about the oil/gas reserves in the black sea during previous Western-backed explorations long ago
Rumors even states that the Western states where trying to electronically jam Turkish ships' navigators in an effort to prevent them from digging the wells of Sakarya gas field in their appropriate places

Such lovely allies does Turkey have, I swear
They are scared shitless that the Turks become a major power AGAIN, for god knows how many times already. That's why. But it will happen, no matter what they do.
 

Ryder

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That is why the West were trying to do anything to prevent Turkey from obtaining national gas and oil reserves
From pitting Greece against Turkey in the East Med to providing fake data about the oil/gas reserves in the black sea during previous Western-backed explorations long ago
Rumors even states that the Western states where trying to electronically jam Turkish ships' navigators in an effort to prevent them from digging the wells of Sakarya gas field in their appropriate places

Such lovely allies does Turkey have, I swear

Turkiye is a regional power with military, economic and political strength in the region due to their position.

Even if Turkiye is an G20 economy its still a newly industralised country and a developing country. Compared to a lot of rich developed countries still not rich.

Yeah it is rich in its region compared to its neighbours but its still poor.

You have Bulgarians you know Bulgaria which is not really rich but still benefitting from the euro currency which allows them to treat Turkiye like their grocery store.

Its fcking embarassing how poor Turkiye is in their economy despite their strong Military and Political positions in the geopolitical arena.
 
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