Recent events such as Azerbaijan's victorious war against Armenia and the unprecedented expansion of the Turkic Council suggest that the Turkic world is inching towards unification. At the current pace, it is inevitable. In a war between the existing superpowers, control over the Turkic lands stretching from Central Asia to Thrace could prove to be decisive. Therefore, a unified Turkic entity would prove to be an indispensable strategic ally. In this article we will provide an outline of the Turkic World, the Turkic Council, the geopolitical situation surrounding the Turkic nations and why the Turkic nations are set to become powerful.
The harshness of this region is what crafted the warlike nature of the Turkic people. However, even if resources seem sparse on the surface, below, valuable materials are abundant. Central Asia is rich in oil and gas resources, holding 1.9% of the world's proven oil reserves and 10.6% of natural gas. Furthermore, Kazakhstan produced 43% of the world's uranium in 2019 and is estimated to have 13% of the world's uranium reserves.
Separated from the rest of the Turkic World by the world's largest lake, Azerbaijan is a small yet wealthy nation. Sitting in the Caucasus, it generally enjoys better conditions than its Central Asian counterparts. It also has an abundance of oil and gas. Previously it had a portion of its territory under occupation by Armenian forces, but with the support of Turkey, it built a formidable military which dealt a decisive blow to Armenia in late 2020, leading to the end of a 30-year occupation.
Cut off from Azerbaijan's main landmass by a small strip of Armenian territory, Turkey long had no access to Azerbaijan other than through Iran or Georgia. Now with Armenia's defeat, the Meghri Corridor is becoming a reality. Simply put, this new route means that direct trade and travel between Turkey and Azerbaijan is now possible. This also means that there is contiguous Turkic territory from Thrace to the far east of Central Asia for the first time in modern history (though the Caspian still stands in the way).
Turkey, the most populous and well known of the Turkic nations, largely lies on the Anatolian peninsula, with a small portion of land in Europe. With the Bosporus cutting through the middle of the largest city in the Turkic World, Istanbul, large vessels must travel through Turkey to enter the Black Sea. Turkey is also an important route for east-west trade, as it is a gate between Europe and Asia.
Climatically speaking, Turkey is a mosaic. The nation has a variety of climate zones and each region of the nation has a unique environment. Turkey alone has a quarter more species of flora and fauna than the entirety of Europe. Despite the rich environment and self-sustaining agriculture, it has long been thought that Turkey lacks in the underground resources department. However, this couldn't be further from the truth. Turkey has vast thorium reserves, often estimated to be within the top 5 in the world. Even more significant is Turkey's huge boron reserves. An estimated 70% of the world's boron is found in Turkey. Furthermore, Turkey has long kept out of the search for oil and gas, yet has recently stepped up efforts to discover fields in the Black Sea, Aegean and Mediterranean, often knocking heads with Greece as a result.
South of Turkey, the Island of Cyprus sits in the north-eastern Mediterranean. Though the south is internationally recognised, the north which is under Turkish control is not. Despite embargoes and countless efforts from the EU to dissolve the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, it still stands to this day. Geostrategically it makes sense for Turkey to hold the north as it facilitates power projection throughout the Eastern Mediterranean and can serve as a buffer against naval threats from the south.
Opening of the Turkic Council office in Budapest
Hungary, considered to be part of Central Europe, is also located near the boundaries of both Eastern and Southeastern Europe. This makes Hungary the perfect launchpad for the Turkic Council's cooperation with Europe.
Previously, Azerbaijan used similar weaponry and tactics to their opponent, Armenia. Reliant on T-72 main battle tanks and an assortment of artillery systems, the Azerbaijani military had occasional skirmishes with the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, which would often end in stalemate. In 2016, Azerbaijan was able to recapture some land after heavily investing in its military capabilities. However, the real turning point happened in 2020.
After mid-year skirmishes, Turkey and Azerbaijan held military drills in early August. This was an indication that Turkey was committed to helping its ally. What wasn't expected, was Azerbaijan's highly effective use of drones. For those who didn't follow Turkey's drone operations in Syria and Libya, Azerbaijan's drone blitz was a shocking surprise. Regardless, even most military observers couldn't anticipate the scale of the drone assault. Turkish drones fitted with domestically produced laser-guided micro-munitions coupled with Turkey's highly advanced Koral electronic warfare system proved to be an irrefutably effective combo. Israeli suicide drones also played a big part in taking out high-value targets.
This is an indication of how well-developed and significant Turkey's military-industrial complex has become. Not only is Turkey producing quality equipment, but also using them highly effectively, furthermore, training their closest ally to use the weaponry to decisively win a conflict. Turkey's defence industry, restarted in the 1970s, is quickly gaining pace. A glance at Turkey's current defence industry product catalogue reveals an impressive list of equipment. However, upcoming projects such as the TFX fighter jet, MIUS/Goksungur jet-powered drone programs, ULAQ autonomous combat ships and countless other endeavours are what will propel the Turkish defence industry to the next stage. Once these programs are complete the Turkish defence industry will be fully independent and the expansion of Turkey's military in terms of asset numbers will rapidly increase.
All Turkic states have purchased equipment from Turkey, mainly armoured personnel carriers. However, after Azerbaijan's victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Turkic World started to take notice of Turkey's more complex military products. Especially Kazakhstan, which sent defence officials to examine TB2 drones in Turkey. This was preceded by the Turkish Defence Minister's visit to Kazakhstan, where deals regarding military training and cooperation in the defence sector were signed.
With the natural resource wealth of Azerbaijan and the Central Asian Turkic states, combined with Hungary's highly educated population, cooperation between Turkey and the rest of the Turkic world can drive the Turkish defence industry forward at an impressive rate. In return, Turkey can provide quality defence products at a good price along with training. As militaries around the world study and begin works on emulating Turkey's drone doctrine, the Turkic world can swiftly adopt this new method of warfare with the help of the pioneer of these tactics and strategies. All sides will benefit from this and therefore it is inexorable.
Concerning the Turkic world, strategic depth is most evident in Central Asia. It is a deeply landlocked region, far from naval threats. Shielded by mountains to the east, rugged and desolate terrain in the south and the Caspian Sea to the east, Central Asia is not only vast but also protected by natural barriers. Only the north is exposed. This makes cooperation with Russia vital.
Though Turkey is larger than any European nation (apart from Russia), it could still benefit from having additional strategic depth. It is no coincidence that Kazakhstan hosts Aselsan factories and has invited Turkey to open up more factories and headquarters in its territory.
Turkey could also serve as a strategic stronghold against any eastern threat to the Turkic world. Whether through shipments or by quick flights over the Caspian, Turkey could quickly send reinforcements to Central Asia. In this sense, Anatolia and Central Asia complement each other.
To the south, there are two failed states, Iraq and Syria. Both war-torn countries will not see stability unless a regional power subjugates them. The only nations capable of achieving this are Iran or Turkey. The issue for Iran is any occupation would be met by Israeli and American strikes. Though Iran boasts a large arsenal of missiles and perhaps the greatest number of proxy forces throughout the Middle East, they cannot protect their troops. The missiles act as a deterrent against an invasion of Iran, not as a deterrent against attacking their positions in Iraq or Syria. On the other hand, the Turkish military can head in and stay in. Syria is already in the process of breaking apart, meanwhile, Iraq will suffer the same fate, perhaps sometime within the next decade.
Though many western journalists will point to "Neo-Ottomanism", this is pure sophistry. Turkey would prefer not to meddle in the Middle East at all. It only does so out of necessity. Both Iraq and Syria are full of PKK terrorists, who pose a security threat to Turkey and the local population. As Syria broke apart, a power vacuum formed, first filled by ISIS, then YPG/PKK. Turkey has fought both groups and subsequently held the territories captured from them.
There can only be two outcomes for Iraq and Syria. They could get armed and trained by Turkey, become a force that is interoperable with the Turkish Armed Forces and ultimately defeat militant groups in the north. Or they could keep their current policies, turn a blind eye to the situation and watch as Turkey rolls in.
Though Syria and Iraq are the most obvious candidates for Turkish intervention, it must be noted that any nation in Turkey's neighbourhood is susceptible. Libya is a clear example of this. The GNA, the UN-recognised government, was about to collapse as Haftar's forces, backed by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France, Greece and partially by Russia, were encroaching the capital. A relatively small deployment of TB2 drones, T-122 Sakarya MLRS, Korkut SPAAG and a few other weapon systems completely changed the tide. With Turkey's modest deployment, the GNA was able to push the LNA back to Sirte.
As the USA continues to support PKK/YPG, Russia and China are welcoming Turkey with open arms. This can mean that the USA could find itself locked out of Central Asia, as not only will Russia and China oppose the American presence next door, but an entire coalition of Turkic states, with Turkey at the helm, will join in. As a union, the Turkic nations can say no to the US, but on their own, the USA could pressure one or more of them to give in to American demands. This could explain the US's silence in regards to the Turkic Council.
Azerbaijani troops marching in Baku
The organs of the Council include:
Flag of the Turkic Council
Ever since its independence, Turkmenistan has decided to remain neutral. To this day it is still not part of the Turkic Council. However, recent meetings between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan may indicate that things are on the cusp of changing. Talks between the two Caspian Sea states have yielded positive results, ending a long-standing maritime border disagreement. However, Turkmenistan's long isolation means that it will find integration into the Turkic Council difficult. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow must be willing to make compromises.
After Hungary joined in 2018, Uzbekistan soon followed. Turkmenistan is next. As the Turkic Council continues to mature, some surprises may be in store. Ukraine has already expressed its interest to join as an observer state. Other possible observer states include Bulgaria, Russia, Moldova and any other nation with a sizeable Turkic population.
By 2035 a fully interoperable joint-Turkic military may materialise. What could this look like? By then, a fully indigenous defence industry will be formed. Meaning that all arms will be self-supplied. Due to the frequent announcement of new projects, it is impossible to predict what weapons this force will have. The following products are either in service, ready for deliveries, or planned to enter service in the coming decade or two:
Fighter: TFX 5+ gen air-superiority fighter
Jet-powered high-speed drones: Goksungur, MIUS
MALE/tactical drones: TB2/TB2s, Anka/Anka-I/Anka-S, Aksungur/Aksungur ASW, Akinci, TB3
Attack helicopters: T-129 ATAK, T-629, ATAK 2 (heavy 10-12 ton)
Helicopters: T625 Gokbey, 10-ton utility helicopter
Missiles & munitions (not including air defence and rocket artillery): Atmaca anti-ship cruise missile, Gezgin long-range cruise missile, SOM/SOM-J stand-off missile, Cirit 2.75" laser-guided missile, MAM-C, MAM-L, Karaok man-portable ATGM, Bozdogan WVRAAM, Gokdogan BVRAAM, UMTAS long-range ATGM, L-UMTAS long-range laser-guided ATGM, OMTAS mid-range ATGM, TANOK 120mm laser-guided missile, Yatagan miniature missile, HGK-82/83/84 guidance kit, HGK-ER guidance kit, KGK-82/83 guidance kit, LGK - laser guidance kit, LHGK-84 laser and GPS/INS guidance kit, TEBER-81/82 laser guidance kit, NEB-84 bunker-buster, SARB-83 bunker-buster
Carriers & amphibious warfare ships: Anadolu-Class amphibious assault ship, Bayraktar-Class LST, Future aircraft carrier project
Corvettes: Ada-class anti-submarine corvette, Dearsan C92 multirole corvette, RMK Marine MMC Corvette (multi-mission corvette), RMK 1600 Corvette
Frigates: I-Class multirole frigate, TF-4500 anti-air frigate (TF-2000 was chosen instead for the Turkish navy)
Destroyers: TF-2000 anti-air destroyer
Unmanned Surface Combat Vessels: ULAQ fast attack, ULAQ EW/ISR, ULAQ anti-mine, ULAQ Anti-ship/anti-submarine
Fast attack & patrol: Dearsan 33m very fast patrol boat, 57m Tulza-class patrol boat, Dearsan OPV 76, Ares 85 Hercules multirole patrol, Ares 110 Hercules multirole patrol, Ares 150 Hercules OPV, Ares 125 FAMB FAC, STM FAC-55, FAC-42, RMK Marine Fast Attack Craft, MRTP 24 Fast attack craft, MRTP 34 Fast Patrol Attack craft
Air Defence: Korkut SPAAG CIWS, Sungur, Hisar A/A+, Hisar G/G+, Hisar O/O+, Siper long-range air defence system, Long-range high-altitude air defence system (unnamed)
MLRS and ballistic missiles: TRG-122, TRGL-230, TRG-300, Bora tactical ballistic missile, Medium range and intercontinental ballistic missiles
SPG: Firtina, Firtina 2
Tank: Altay MBT, Kaplan MMWT, Tulpar light tank
Tracked IFV: Tulpar, Kaplan 20 NG-AFV, Kaplan 30 NG-AFV
Wheeled IFV/APC: FNSS Pars 8x8, FNSS Pars 6x6, FNSS Pars 4x4, Otokar Arma 8x8, Otokar Arma 6x6
Tactical Armored Vehicles: Otokar Cobra, Otokar Cobra II, Otokar Ural, Katmerciler Hizir, Katmerciler Khan, Nurol Ejder Yalcin, Nurol NMS, Nurol Ilgaz II
MRAP: BMC Vuran, BMC Kirpi, BMC Amazon, Otokar Kaya
Recon: Otokar Akrep II, Otokar Pars 6x6 Scout
Anti-Tank vehicles: FNSS Kaplan 10 STA, FNSS Pars 4x4 STA
Marine Assault Vehicle: FNSS ZAHA, Otokar Tulpar S
Electronic Warfare: Koral, Redet II
Directed energy weapons: AKLA (DEWS), ARMOL laser weapon system, Aselsan YGLS, Aselsan LSS, TÜMOL rifle mounted laser weapon, LaADRONS
Electromagnetic railguns: Tufan, SAHI 209, Sapan
Turkey's military equipment is battle-proven and has been getting increasingly innovative as Turkish defence companies gain confidence. Conforming to NATO standards, the quality of Turkish defence products is high. Furthermore, a plethora of ambitious projects is set to raise the Turkish defence industry to new heights. When Turkey's population and economic power is supplemented with that of the rest of the Turkic World, it is clear that the potential here is prodigious.
Having never lost a battle since being established, with a highly trained, battle-hardened military, and now with the capability to produce advanced weapons, Turkey will lead the already martial Turkic nations in a union that is set to shake the world.
A summary of today's Turkic world
Starting from the far eastern border of Kazakhstan, straddling over Asia Minor across to Thrace, the Turkic world is without a doubt, vast. However, it does not stop at Turkey's border with Greece and Bulgaria. Hungary, which lays in Central Europe also sees itself as part of the Turkic World. Not to mention Turkic minorities in Eastern Europe such as the Christian Gagauz Turks. Looking south, there is the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus a well as people of Turkic origin in northern Syria and Iraq. There are even millions who have partial Turkic heritage in northern Africa.Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & Turkmenistan)
In the far east, both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan share a mountainous border with China. The jagged peaks of the Tian Shan Mountains serve as a natural barrier against the eastern giant. However, in contrast to the mountains, most of this region consists of expansive steppes. The weather is inhospitable, being freezing in winter and hot in summer. The windy plains of Central Asia aren't ideal for agriculture, hence why people in this region have relied on a pastoral lifestyle. This is one of the reasons why the populations in this region have remained relatively low.The harshness of this region is what crafted the warlike nature of the Turkic people. However, even if resources seem sparse on the surface, below, valuable materials are abundant. Central Asia is rich in oil and gas resources, holding 1.9% of the world's proven oil reserves and 10.6% of natural gas. Furthermore, Kazakhstan produced 43% of the world's uranium in 2019 and is estimated to have 13% of the world's uranium reserves.
Across the Caspian (Azerbaijan, Turkey & TRNC)
Separated from the rest of the Turkic World by the world's largest lake, Azerbaijan is a small yet wealthy nation. Sitting in the Caucasus, it generally enjoys better conditions than its Central Asian counterparts. It also has an abundance of oil and gas. Previously it had a portion of its territory under occupation by Armenian forces, but with the support of Turkey, it built a formidable military which dealt a decisive blow to Armenia in late 2020, leading to the end of a 30-year occupation.
Cut off from Azerbaijan's main landmass by a small strip of Armenian territory, Turkey long had no access to Azerbaijan other than through Iran or Georgia. Now with Armenia's defeat, the Meghri Corridor is becoming a reality. Simply put, this new route means that direct trade and travel between Turkey and Azerbaijan is now possible. This also means that there is contiguous Turkic territory from Thrace to the far east of Central Asia for the first time in modern history (though the Caspian still stands in the way).
Turkey, the most populous and well known of the Turkic nations, largely lies on the Anatolian peninsula, with a small portion of land in Europe. With the Bosporus cutting through the middle of the largest city in the Turkic World, Istanbul, large vessels must travel through Turkey to enter the Black Sea. Turkey is also an important route for east-west trade, as it is a gate between Europe and Asia.
Climatically speaking, Turkey is a mosaic. The nation has a variety of climate zones and each region of the nation has a unique environment. Turkey alone has a quarter more species of flora and fauna than the entirety of Europe. Despite the rich environment and self-sustaining agriculture, it has long been thought that Turkey lacks in the underground resources department. However, this couldn't be further from the truth. Turkey has vast thorium reserves, often estimated to be within the top 5 in the world. Even more significant is Turkey's huge boron reserves. An estimated 70% of the world's boron is found in Turkey. Furthermore, Turkey has long kept out of the search for oil and gas, yet has recently stepped up efforts to discover fields in the Black Sea, Aegean and Mediterranean, often knocking heads with Greece as a result.
South of Turkey, the Island of Cyprus sits in the north-eastern Mediterranean. Though the south is internationally recognised, the north which is under Turkish control is not. Despite embargoes and countless efforts from the EU to dissolve the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, it still stands to this day. Geostrategically it makes sense for Turkey to hold the north as it facilitates power projection throughout the Eastern Mediterranean and can serve as a buffer against naval threats from the south.
Central Europe (Hungary)
Situated in the flat plains of Central Europe, Hungary is isolated in more than just one way. This landlocked nation is linguistically distinct from all its neighbours. Part of the Uralic language family, it's related to Estonian and Finnish. Though it is thought that this language family is connected to the Turkic languages. Which makes sense, as there are obvious similarities between the two. To add to this, the Hungarians are the descendants of the Huns, who were proto-Turkic people who left Central Asia centuries before the Turks did. Essentially, this means that the Turks and Hungarians had the same origin, thus Hungary sees itself as part of the Turkic World. This is not conjecture, the Hungarians have joined the Turkic Council as an observer state, opened up an office in Budapest specifically for the Turkic Council and Orban has made it clear that he sees Hungary as a Turkic nation.
Opening of the Turkic Council office in Budapest
Hungary, considered to be part of Central Europe, is also located near the boundaries of both Eastern and Southeastern Europe. This makes Hungary the perfect launchpad for the Turkic Council's cooperation with Europe.
| GDP PPP (millions) | Population | Area (sq. km) | |||
| Turkey | 2,381,594 | 84,919,015 | 783,562 | ||
| Kazakhstan | 569,628 | 18,923,912 | 2,724,900 | ||
| Hungary | 316,342 | 9,644,644 | 86,000 | ||
| Uzbekistan | 250,157 | 33,778,542 |
| ||
| Azerbaijan | 146,459 | 10,198,792 | 93,030 | ||
| Kyrgyzstan | 31,439 | 6,595,264 | 199,900 | ||
| Turkmenistan | 99,323 | 6,089,563 | 491,210 | ||
| Total | 3,794,942 | 170,149,732 | 4,826,602 |
A New Doctrine Fuelled By Turkey's Prowess
Plagued with Soviet Era equipment and tactics, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have had militaries that aren't fit for the modern battlefield. This was especially problematic for Azerbaijan as they faced an active security threat for decades. So how did this change in 2020?Previously, Azerbaijan used similar weaponry and tactics to their opponent, Armenia. Reliant on T-72 main battle tanks and an assortment of artillery systems, the Azerbaijani military had occasional skirmishes with the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, which would often end in stalemate. In 2016, Azerbaijan was able to recapture some land after heavily investing in its military capabilities. However, the real turning point happened in 2020.
After mid-year skirmishes, Turkey and Azerbaijan held military drills in early August. This was an indication that Turkey was committed to helping its ally. What wasn't expected, was Azerbaijan's highly effective use of drones. For those who didn't follow Turkey's drone operations in Syria and Libya, Azerbaijan's drone blitz was a shocking surprise. Regardless, even most military observers couldn't anticipate the scale of the drone assault. Turkish drones fitted with domestically produced laser-guided micro-munitions coupled with Turkey's highly advanced Koral electronic warfare system proved to be an irrefutably effective combo. Israeli suicide drones also played a big part in taking out high-value targets.
This is an indication of how well-developed and significant Turkey's military-industrial complex has become. Not only is Turkey producing quality equipment, but also using them highly effectively, furthermore, training their closest ally to use the weaponry to decisively win a conflict. Turkey's defence industry, restarted in the 1970s, is quickly gaining pace. A glance at Turkey's current defence industry product catalogue reveals an impressive list of equipment. However, upcoming projects such as the TFX fighter jet, MIUS/Goksungur jet-powered drone programs, ULAQ autonomous combat ships and countless other endeavours are what will propel the Turkish defence industry to the next stage. Once these programs are complete the Turkish defence industry will be fully independent and the expansion of Turkey's military in terms of asset numbers will rapidly increase.
All Turkic states have purchased equipment from Turkey, mainly armoured personnel carriers. However, after Azerbaijan's victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Turkic World started to take notice of Turkey's more complex military products. Especially Kazakhstan, which sent defence officials to examine TB2 drones in Turkey. This was preceded by the Turkish Defence Minister's visit to Kazakhstan, where deals regarding military training and cooperation in the defence sector were signed.
With the natural resource wealth of Azerbaijan and the Central Asian Turkic states, combined with Hungary's highly educated population, cooperation between Turkey and the rest of the Turkic world can drive the Turkish defence industry forward at an impressive rate. In return, Turkey can provide quality defence products at a good price along with training. As militaries around the world study and begin works on emulating Turkey's drone doctrine, the Turkic world can swiftly adopt this new method of warfare with the help of the pioneer of these tactics and strategies. All sides will benefit from this and therefore it is inexorable.
Strategic Depth
Strategic depth plays a monumental role in the security of nations in times of all-out war. It's what made the Soviet Union and the USA stand strong in World War II. Both had factories deep in their territory, far away from threats. This is extremely important, as when weapon and food production plants are wiped out, the nation then has to rely on what's left. Not to mention that a lack of strategic depth also means that stockpiled weapons and mass storage of fuel, food and other important resources are compromised.Concerning the Turkic world, strategic depth is most evident in Central Asia. It is a deeply landlocked region, far from naval threats. Shielded by mountains to the east, rugged and desolate terrain in the south and the Caspian Sea to the east, Central Asia is not only vast but also protected by natural barriers. Only the north is exposed. This makes cooperation with Russia vital.
Though Turkey is larger than any European nation (apart from Russia), it could still benefit from having additional strategic depth. It is no coincidence that Kazakhstan hosts Aselsan factories and has invited Turkey to open up more factories and headquarters in its territory.
Turkey could also serve as a strategic stronghold against any eastern threat to the Turkic world. Whether through shipments or by quick flights over the Caspian, Turkey could quickly send reinforcements to Central Asia. In this sense, Anatolia and Central Asia complement each other.
An unstable neighbourhood
In contrast to the Central Asian portion of the Turkic World, Turkey is surrounded by failed states and economically weak neighbours. Greece is attempting to catch up to Turkey's military despite its small population and weak economy, further worsening its debt. The Balkans will increasingly rely on the support of Turkey, a perfect region for Turkish and Hungarian cooperation. Meanwhile, to the north, Ukraine and Georgia see Turkey as a valuable counterbalance against Russia. Eastwards there is Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran. With Armenia still trying to patch itself up from the 44-day-long war, Azerbaijan stands stronger than ever before, with Iran watching cautiously.To the south, there are two failed states, Iraq and Syria. Both war-torn countries will not see stability unless a regional power subjugates them. The only nations capable of achieving this are Iran or Turkey. The issue for Iran is any occupation would be met by Israeli and American strikes. Though Iran boasts a large arsenal of missiles and perhaps the greatest number of proxy forces throughout the Middle East, they cannot protect their troops. The missiles act as a deterrent against an invasion of Iran, not as a deterrent against attacking their positions in Iraq or Syria. On the other hand, the Turkish military can head in and stay in. Syria is already in the process of breaking apart, meanwhile, Iraq will suffer the same fate, perhaps sometime within the next decade.
Though many western journalists will point to "Neo-Ottomanism", this is pure sophistry. Turkey would prefer not to meddle in the Middle East at all. It only does so out of necessity. Both Iraq and Syria are full of PKK terrorists, who pose a security threat to Turkey and the local population. As Syria broke apart, a power vacuum formed, first filled by ISIS, then YPG/PKK. Turkey has fought both groups and subsequently held the territories captured from them.
There can only be two outcomes for Iraq and Syria. They could get armed and trained by Turkey, become a force that is interoperable with the Turkish Armed Forces and ultimately defeat militant groups in the north. Or they could keep their current policies, turn a blind eye to the situation and watch as Turkey rolls in.
Though Syria and Iraq are the most obvious candidates for Turkish intervention, it must be noted that any nation in Turkey's neighbourhood is susceptible. Libya is a clear example of this. The GNA, the UN-recognised government, was about to collapse as Haftar's forces, backed by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France, Greece and partially by Russia, were encroaching the capital. A relatively small deployment of TB2 drones, T-122 Sakarya MLRS, Korkut SPAAG and a few other weapon systems completely changed the tide. With Turkey's modest deployment, the GNA was able to push the LNA back to Sirte.
The big question
Watching the Turkic World rise has made some nervous, particularly nations with historical animosity towards the Turks. But the real question is how do the big players react, and who will the Turkic World ally with? We simply don't know. Sitting in such a central location, in between China, Russia, the EU and a collection of fragile majority Muslim nations, it is nearly impossible to guess what path it will take and how the surrounding nations will react. However, more likely than not, a united Turkic entity may choose to stay neutral, while embracing trade and energy pipeline deals with all parties.As the USA continues to support PKK/YPG, Russia and China are welcoming Turkey with open arms. This can mean that the USA could find itself locked out of Central Asia, as not only will Russia and China oppose the American presence next door, but an entire coalition of Turkic states, with Turkey at the helm, will join in. As a union, the Turkic nations can say no to the US, but on their own, the USA could pressure one or more of them to give in to American demands. This could explain the US's silence in regards to the Turkic Council.
Azerbaijani troops marching in Baku
The Turkic Council
Founded in 2009, the Turkic Council is the brainchild of Nursultan Nazarbayev. Under the Nakhchivan Agreement, the following was declared as purposes and tasks of the Turkic Council:- Strengthening confidence and friendship among the Parties;
- Developing common positions on foreign policy issues;
- Coordinating actions to combat international terrorism, separatism, extremism and cross-border crimes;
- Promoting effective regional and bilateral cooperation in all areas of common interest;
- Creating favourable conditions for trade and investment;
- Aiming for comprehensive and balanced economic growth, social and cultural development;
- Expanding interaction in the fields of science, technology, education, health, culture, sports and tourism;
- Encouraging interaction of mass media and other means of communication;
- Promoting the exchange of relevant legal information and enhancing legal cooperation.
The organs of the Council include:
- Council of Heads of State
- Council of Foreign Ministers
- Senior Officials Committee
- Council of Elders (Aksakals)
- The Secretariat
Flag of the Turkic Council
Ever since its independence, Turkmenistan has decided to remain neutral. To this day it is still not part of the Turkic Council. However, recent meetings between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan may indicate that things are on the cusp of changing. Talks between the two Caspian Sea states have yielded positive results, ending a long-standing maritime border disagreement. However, Turkmenistan's long isolation means that it will find integration into the Turkic Council difficult. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow must be willing to make compromises.
After Hungary joined in 2018, Uzbekistan soon followed. Turkmenistan is next. As the Turkic Council continues to mature, some surprises may be in store. Ukraine has already expressed its interest to join as an observer state. Other possible observer states include Bulgaria, Russia, Moldova and any other nation with a sizeable Turkic population.
A new, unprecedented military superpower?
On the 10th of December 2020, a message was sent to the world. The victory parade in Baku signalled the return of the Turks. This message was loud. The transfer of advanced weaponry to Azerbaijan was done almost secretly in comparison. A clue which suggests that something big may be brewing.By 2035 a fully interoperable joint-Turkic military may materialise. What could this look like? By then, a fully indigenous defence industry will be formed. Meaning that all arms will be self-supplied. Due to the frequent announcement of new projects, it is impossible to predict what weapons this force will have. The following products are either in service, ready for deliveries, or planned to enter service in the coming decade or two:
Fighter: TFX 5+ gen air-superiority fighter
Jet-powered high-speed drones: Goksungur, MIUS
MALE/tactical drones: TB2/TB2s, Anka/Anka-I/Anka-S, Aksungur/Aksungur ASW, Akinci, TB3
Attack helicopters: T-129 ATAK, T-629, ATAK 2 (heavy 10-12 ton)
Helicopters: T625 Gokbey, 10-ton utility helicopter
Missiles & munitions (not including air defence and rocket artillery): Atmaca anti-ship cruise missile, Gezgin long-range cruise missile, SOM/SOM-J stand-off missile, Cirit 2.75" laser-guided missile, MAM-C, MAM-L, Karaok man-portable ATGM, Bozdogan WVRAAM, Gokdogan BVRAAM, UMTAS long-range ATGM, L-UMTAS long-range laser-guided ATGM, OMTAS mid-range ATGM, TANOK 120mm laser-guided missile, Yatagan miniature missile, HGK-82/83/84 guidance kit, HGK-ER guidance kit, KGK-82/83 guidance kit, LGK - laser guidance kit, LHGK-84 laser and GPS/INS guidance kit, TEBER-81/82 laser guidance kit, NEB-84 bunker-buster, SARB-83 bunker-buster
Carriers & amphibious warfare ships: Anadolu-Class amphibious assault ship, Bayraktar-Class LST, Future aircraft carrier project
Corvettes: Ada-class anti-submarine corvette, Dearsan C92 multirole corvette, RMK Marine MMC Corvette (multi-mission corvette), RMK 1600 Corvette
Frigates: I-Class multirole frigate, TF-4500 anti-air frigate (TF-2000 was chosen instead for the Turkish navy)
Destroyers: TF-2000 anti-air destroyer
Unmanned Surface Combat Vessels: ULAQ fast attack, ULAQ EW/ISR, ULAQ anti-mine, ULAQ Anti-ship/anti-submarine
Fast attack & patrol: Dearsan 33m very fast patrol boat, 57m Tulza-class patrol boat, Dearsan OPV 76, Ares 85 Hercules multirole patrol, Ares 110 Hercules multirole patrol, Ares 150 Hercules OPV, Ares 125 FAMB FAC, STM FAC-55, FAC-42, RMK Marine Fast Attack Craft, MRTP 24 Fast attack craft, MRTP 34 Fast Patrol Attack craft
Air Defence: Korkut SPAAG CIWS, Sungur, Hisar A/A+, Hisar G/G+, Hisar O/O+, Siper long-range air defence system, Long-range high-altitude air defence system (unnamed)
MLRS and ballistic missiles: TRG-122, TRGL-230, TRG-300, Bora tactical ballistic missile, Medium range and intercontinental ballistic missiles
SPG: Firtina, Firtina 2
Tank: Altay MBT, Kaplan MMWT, Tulpar light tank
Tracked IFV: Tulpar, Kaplan 20 NG-AFV, Kaplan 30 NG-AFV
Wheeled IFV/APC: FNSS Pars 8x8, FNSS Pars 6x6, FNSS Pars 4x4, Otokar Arma 8x8, Otokar Arma 6x6
Tactical Armored Vehicles: Otokar Cobra, Otokar Cobra II, Otokar Ural, Katmerciler Hizir, Katmerciler Khan, Nurol Ejder Yalcin, Nurol NMS, Nurol Ilgaz II
MRAP: BMC Vuran, BMC Kirpi, BMC Amazon, Otokar Kaya
Recon: Otokar Akrep II, Otokar Pars 6x6 Scout
Anti-Tank vehicles: FNSS Kaplan 10 STA, FNSS Pars 4x4 STA
Marine Assault Vehicle: FNSS ZAHA, Otokar Tulpar S
Electronic Warfare: Koral, Redet II
Directed energy weapons: AKLA (DEWS), ARMOL laser weapon system, Aselsan YGLS, Aselsan LSS, TÜMOL rifle mounted laser weapon, LaADRONS
Electromagnetic railguns: Tufan, SAHI 209, Sapan
Turkey's military equipment is battle-proven and has been getting increasingly innovative as Turkish defence companies gain confidence. Conforming to NATO standards, the quality of Turkish defence products is high. Furthermore, a plethora of ambitious projects is set to raise the Turkish defence industry to new heights. When Turkey's population and economic power is supplemented with that of the rest of the Turkic World, it is clear that the potential here is prodigious.
Having never lost a battle since being established, with a highly trained, battle-hardened military, and now with the capability to produce advanced weapons, Turkey will lead the already martial Turkic nations in a union that is set to shake the world.
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