IMO, 200+ KAAN and 80 Eurofighter+Viper is enough investment in TurAF (until it moves toward 6th gen platforms in 25 years or so.) As there will be hundreds of loyal wingman alongside these manned platforms. Which I don't think were given enough attention in 2000s and early 2010s. Back then the Concept of 5th gen areal warfare with the MUM-T at the center of it wasn't widely accepted. Even for USAF.
Technically Türkiye can still procure more KAAN. But in the end it is about overall trade-off and balancing between Air, land, Naval and space capabilities. And i think that money is better invested elsewhere with more return potential for strategic effect. Like an SSN program. (Which definitely doesn't get enough attention here among Turkish industry enthusiasts.)
If we ignore the efforts that were thwarted in the early years of the Republic; The Turkish Air Force has come to this day with a platform acquisition adventure that is completely dependent on foreign sources. KAAN is not only a new generation combatant platform, but also a domestic industrial product , that will be designed and produced directly in line with the needs and doctrines of TAF. The money will not go to Lockheed or Northop, but to Aselsan and TAI... Every stage of maintenance, and all logistics of the aircraft will be provided by domestic means, every penny spent will go to domestic institutions and companies. Not only the generation transition, a new era is opening in the air force as multidimensional mean. Let's keep this in mind.
This airframe will continuously develop and will have a production line for at least 20 years, maybe over 30 years. Maybe 15 years later, another main combatant program by TAI will be done on another airframe, but this airframe will definitely remain in production for many years. There have been fleets that have been closed due to external dependency in the active fleet structure, aging platforms, accidents, or other platform supply-based problems. Years ago, when KAAN was still a project on paper and TAF was still a part of JSF, authorized sources speculated that the new generation jet supply would be over 300 F-35+KAAN in total. In today's situation, my logic is saying that the possible KAAN airframe production number that we heard about ten years ago should be revised upwards and that this average platform need that we heard about ten years ago should be met in this way.
Because let alone next 25 years, even in the past 10 years, our risk perception has just increased exponentially. We are struggling with wars or near-war problems on 4 sides, which of our foreign followers would be surprised if one morning the world media wrote that the Turkish state was caught in a war? The threat is real, and it's close enough to engulf you at any moment.
Our fleet numbers are decreasing because we cannot supply aircraft, the country is under a serious security threat and this is increasing, the region is a boiling cauldron. This is one side of the scale; on the other side of the scale there is the domestic industry, engineering and workforce that is now quite developed and can meet its own aviation needs. On the other side, efforts to increase our pilot numbers are becoming increasingly diverse, unmanned aviation will not kill manned combat aviation.
I am simply adding up the data that is available, I am not doing anything else. In this case, there is not a single data that can make me believe that the Turkish Air Force will shrink in terms of main combat platforms in the transition to the new generation.
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