Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Deliorman]

From Qubatli they will push onto Lachin, then it is game over.
Unconditional surrender.
And the way things are going, it could be a matter of days.

Let’s not underestimate the opponent on the battle field and put the pan on the fire before we catch the fish. The deeper we go the worse the terrain gets (high mountains and forests) so it will not be a walk in the park. That’s a perfect terrain for all kinds of ambushes and traps so Azeri forces must be very cautious.

The war is far from over so let’s just be patient.

 

[Xenon54]

Why dont they just bomb the lachin corridor once for all, its just one tiny street to choke the supply line.

 

[King_West]

Why dont they just bomb the lachin corridor once for all, its just one tiny street to choke the supply line.

Step by step brother. There are more urgent targets at the moment that can pose a threat to our troops
Edit: and whatever the bring in will be blown up in a few days. The cost of this war will be enormous for Armenia. They will lose 80% of their equipment so they will need to accept a bad truce for them. Better to leave the corridor open and destroy everything they’ve got so they get no funny ideas

 

[Huelague]

Funny thing is that radical Jihadists are big time anti shia.

People think they would go all the way to fight for a majority shia country.

Where is the logic

They don’t care religion. They care money.

 

[LienNoir]

Armenian soldiers eating each other.

 

[Skyfall]

I

Let’s not underestimate the opponent on the battle field and put the pan on the fire before we catch the fish. The deeper we go the worse the terrain gets (high mountains and forests) so it will not be a walk in the park. That’s a perfect terrain for all kinds of ambushes and traps so Azeri forces must be very cautious.

The war is far from over so let’s just be patient.

I don't know if these guys are going to transition to guerrilla warfare. But the thought for Arm troops that they will be caught in a mountainous area with all roads out cut and winter around the corner is enough for anyone to start deserting.

And as we have seen, they are poorly equipped, most likely they will starve or freeze to death this winter. And with the drones working above, the fight doesn't need to be taken to them. They just need to be picked off one by one.

Northern Syria is different because those guys were trained in guerrilla tactics and were very well supplied and dug in, and they didn't last long. And any action they take now is by infiltration through the border or more likely sleeper cells that have stayed inactive for some time.
This won't be the case here because I believe that all civilian population will leave and border will be sealed.

 

[Skyfall]

I

Why dont they just bomb the lachin corridor once for all, its just one tiny street to choke the supply line.

I think that they want to leave it open for as long as possible for all Armenian civilians to leave. This will make it easy in the long term as you won't have any chance of combatants hiding in the civilian population.

 

[Huelague]

I wish we could land connect to Nakhichevan.

 

[Skyfall]

I wish we could land connect to Nakhichevan.

Look even if there is no future land connection, once NK is taken back, there may be a change in relations with Armenia. Then it may be possible to transit via Armenia in the south. A little like Croatias crossing with Bosnia near Neum. It sounds unlikely now but Armenia has more to gain with better relations in the long run.

 

[adenl]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1317917256161132544

According to Oryx, the Armenians have lost the equivalent of a whole division worth of military equipment that is visually confirmed. The actual losses are higher.

The Azerbaijanis have lost the equivalent of ~3 battalions worth of military equipement that is visually confirmed. The actual losses are higher.

The Fight For Nagorno-Karabakh: Documenting Losses On The Sides Of Armenia And Azerbaijan

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[KKF 2.0]

Look even if there is no future land connection, once NK is taken back, there may be a change in relations with Armenia. Then it may be possible to transit via Armenia in the south. A little like Croatias crossing with Bosnia near Neum. It sounds unlikely now but Armenia has more to gain with better relations in the long run. View attachment 4464

You are right. The Turkish government wants to open the border to Armenia as soon as this conflict is over even if the Armenian diaspora continues to malign Turkey internationally. The opening of the border with Iraq and Syria has set a fine example of what trade can do for the enlargement of your wealth. Gaziantep became an industrial hub thanks to the trade with the Southern neighbors. This economic blossoming created opportunities and prevented the migration of over one million people from SE Turkey to West Turkey.

The sad reality in Eastern Anatolia is that the region is slowly but surely dying out. Its population is shrinking every year. Only Malatya, Elazig and to a certain extent Van (thanks to the Iranian border) are doing well. All the other provinces need help urgently.

The opening of the border to Armenia is a dream come true for many people in Eastern Anatolia. No amount of money from the capital can provide a similar and sustainable boost to the regional economy of E Anatolia. These are facts that cannot be denied if you're honest to yourself but under the current situation it doesn't make much sense to talk about topics like this. People are angry at Armenia - and rightly so.

But when the dust of the war has settled and people start being rational (again), these topics will become a priority. Who knows? Maybe the Azeris will offer this "solution" to the Armenians as a "compensation" because after opening up the border, Armenia will become much more developed and wealthy.

But be aware of the fact that Russia doesn't want Turkey to openits border to Armenia. Because by doing so, the Russian oligarchs will be challenged by Western investors and Turkey would become bascially a highway and gate to Armenia, circumventing the Russian port to Eriwan.

 

[Bosanski Vojnik]

The Armenians are going to retreat. No way they are going to hang around in the mountains in "Artsakh" when it is better for them to just leave and go to Armenia itself where they will be more safer.

Anyway this operation in some ways reminds me of Operation Storm in 1995 which was conducted in Croatia which liberated itself from Serb Republic Krajina occupation.

Although the length of the operation and state of actors involved was different (Artsakh had more heavy firepower and ammo supplies than Serb Republic Krajina did) I think the overall nature of the outcome of the operation will be similar. The Serbs could have stuck around and fought but it would have been a massive bloodbath that they would have eventually lost - so the prospect of running away to Serbia was more attractive to them and was the action they took. Also because of the nature of war crimes they commited they were scared to be captured by the Croats and face retribution which was another factor which caused them to flee.

Anyway the Armenians are also no fighters and all they knew was how to commit war crimes because they are ultimate cowards. When firepower was on their side they committed as many atrocities as they could. They live in their minds the fear that Azeri soldiers will punish them once they are captured for what they did in the 90s. That fear of retribution haunts them. No way they take their chances and stick around. They will be on a massive column heading for Armenia itself very soon.

 

[Blackeyes90]

Good Morning !
Soltanli, Amirvarli, Mashanli, Hasanli, Alikeykhanli, Gumlag, Hajili, Goyerchinveysalli, Niyazgullar, Kechel Mammadli, Shahvelli, Haji Ismayilli, Isaqli villages of Jabrayil region were liberated. Karabakh is Azerbaijan!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1318041871185285120

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1318043821754732545

 

[Ryder]

The Armenians are going to retreat. No way they are going to hang around in the mountains in "Artsakh" when it is better for them to just leave and go to Armenia itself where they will be more safer.

Anyway this operation in some ways reminds me of Operation Storm in 1995 which was conducted in Croatia which liberated itself from Serb Republic Krajina occupation.

Although the length of the operation and state of actors involved was different (Artsakh had more heavy firepower and ammo supplies than Serb Republic Krajina did) I think the overall nature of the outcome of the operation will be similar. The Serbs could have stuck around and fought but it would have been a massive bloodbath that they would have eventually lost - so the prospect of running away to Serbia was more attractive to them and was the action they took. Also because of the nature of war crimes they commited they were scared to be captured by the Croats and face retribution which was another factor which caused them to flee.

Anyway the Armenians are also no fighters and all they knew was how to commit war crimes because they are ultimate cowards. When firepower was on their side they committed as many atrocities as they could. They live in their minds the fear that Azeri soldiers will punish them once they are captured for what they did in the 90s. That fear of retribution haunts them. No way they take their chances and stick around. They will be on a massive column heading for Armenia itself very soon.

In ww1 a lot of the armenians got their asses handed to them by the Turks.

Even the Russians complained how they could not fight the only thing they did was kill and destroy villagers when it came to fighting they easily fled.

Armenians were only able to have free reign in eastern Turkey was due to Russia. When they were left alone they usually lost. Kazim Karabekir was once poised to take all of Armenia until the Soviets came in .

Biggest affect they had on the Ottoman war effort is how they sabotaged our supply lines. Remember how armenian soldiers in the Ottoman army also defected which led to our weapons being used against us also exposing our lines.

Armenians were like the Arab revolt their efforts were just targeting supply lines, assassinations, or doing ambushes rather than fighting the Ottoman army head on in ww1. A lot of the time when it came to head on fights they lost.

 

[Saiyan0321]

View attachment 4455

Is this for real? Azerbaijan has advanced that far!! thats 40% of the region. Impressive. very impressive. If azerbaijan can keep their foot on the peddle then they can actually take complete control of the region. What is the plan for Stepanakart.

 

[Saithan]

Is this for real? Azerbaijan has advanced that far!! thats 40% of the region. Impressive. very impressive. If azerbaijan can keep their foot on the peddle then they can actually take complete control of the region. What is the plan for Stepanakart.

I imagine keeping it under pressure, while retaking surrounding occupied territory. Armenia having to abandon Stepanakart when everything else is lost. Will be the final Nail in the coffin and defacto surrender.

 

[Saithan]

Azerbaijan raises flag on historic bridge, President Aliyev says

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on Sunday announced that the nation's flag was raised on a historic bridge connecting the country with Iran, as...

www.dailysabah.com

Minsk Group chairs supplying weapons to Armenia: Erdoğan - Türkiye News

The Minsk Group chairs, the United States, Russia and France, are supplying weapons to Armenia in the ongoing armed conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said, slamming the Armenian government for breaching a ceasefire over the weekend.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

 

[Asena_great]

Is this for real? Azerbaijan has advanced that far!! thats 40% of the region. Impressive. very impressive. If azerbaijan can keep their foot on the peddle then they can actually take complete control of the region. What is the plan for Stepanakart.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1318078228519673862

i have this one idk whether its true or not

 

[dBSPL]

 

[Saithan]

I actually don't like that map. I really hope Azerbaycan has captured at least twice as much.