China warns US it will be defeated if the two superpowers go to war

[Jackdaws]

I disagree with Russia being a superpower. Its economy is smaller than Canada's and is reliant on exporting oil/natural gas. Modern Russia is living in the shadow of the former soviet union. It punches above its weight in terms of military and Europe uses its natural gas, those factors is what puts Russia in my book at #3 in the world

Let's agree to disagree. Fact is that it was even the Soviet Union was a superpower whilst its economy was in absolute shambles.

 

[Xenon54]

It depends on where the war would be fought, China fought US ground troops head on 70 years ago in Korea , they were not really that invincible.

Thats more like a proxy war than a head on war.
Im talking about a war like US vs. Japan, ask the mighty Imperial Japanese army how invincible the US was, even before the bomb.

 

[Xenon54]

if PRC launched a full attack on Taiwan, the war will be over in hours. Even Taiwan generals and politicians told the public that Taiwan can't count on US military aid, it will never come, US won't risk everything for Taiwan, it's very clear and all Taiwan politicians know it.
US actually betrayed Taiwan after establishing relationship with PRC in 1970's, threw a decades old ally under the bus, US is a country that won't hesitate to sacrifice anyone for its own national interest.

You shouldnt underestimate Taiwan that much, invading it will be anything but a walk in the park as you describe.

 

[Zapper]

Lots of legacy weapons. Power projection. Access to oil, which is critical in any war. Lose to China in a conventional war? No chance. Why do you think that when Russia just went it and took Crimea no one did anything? If China has even 1/10th the capability of Russia, they wouldn't be twiddling their thumbs about Taiwan.

I'm not aware of any legacy weapons in Russia arsenal that could beat China nor it has the capabilities to project power. US is the only country that can effectively project power

Most of Russia's new hardware like T-14 Armatas or Su-57s are in limited numbers while the rest of it's military is pretty old. Infact, the Russian Spetznaz uses western equipment since there's no comparable Russian counterpart. The Russians are definitely more experienced and will be able to hold their ground but wouldn't triumph if they go for an offensive. Again, a war in this day and age between any major military powers would most likely result in a stalemate but the bottomline is who faced the most casualties

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1259059970089209858

Not to mention China's economy and manufacturing prowess would be a major advantage

 

[Ayrtonite]

Another reason is the economy, China doesn't want to take back a ruined and destroyed Taiwan. China didn't take back Hong kong until 1997 for the same reason, it doesn't mean China couldn't take back Hong kong , but China back then decided it was not in China's interest to take it back.
Taiwan played argubly the most important role in helping China's economic take off, China.

From 1991 to July 2015, approved outward investment from Taiwan in China amounted to USD 150 billion, which equates to 61.2 per cent of Taiwan's total approved outward investment.

China did benefit immensely from Taiwan but also the manufacturing hubs of South Korea and Japan. I would also argue that hong kong played a large role as well too.

 

[Zapper]

You shouldnt underestimate Taiwan that much, invading it will be anything but a walk in the park as you describe.

The US couldn't effectively dent Afghanistan/Taliban with all their might...while geographical proximity is an advantage for the Chinese in a Sino-Taiwan war, it's very likely Taiwan can hold its ground

 

[Ayrtonite]

if PRC launched a full attack on Taiwan, the war will be over in hours. Even Taiwan generals and politicians told the public that Taiwan can't count on US military aid, it will never come, US won't risk everything for Taiwan, it's very clear and all Taiwan politicians know it.
US actually betrayed Taiwan after establishing relationship with PRC in 1970's, threw a decades old ally under the bus, US is a country that won't hesitate to sacrifice anyone for its own national interest.

As if any other country would've behaved any differently.

 

[Xenon54]

The US couldn't effectively dent Afghanistan with all their might...while geographical proximity is an advantage for the Chinese in a Sino-Taiwan war, it's very likely Taiwan can hold its ground

The US didnt fight Afghanistan, it fought Taliban, Conventional and Assymetric war are two pair of shoes.
They absolutely crushed Saddams Iraq which was stronger than Agfhanistan in any shape or form, it just depends on how much the US wants to invest in a victory.

 

[Ayrtonite]

The US couldn't effectively dent Afghanistan with all their might...while geographical proximity is an advantage for the Chinese in a Sino-Taiwan war, it's very likely Taiwan can hold its ground.

Absolutely not. Taiwan's military is set up completely wrong for an effective fight against the PRC. The issues facing the ROC's military are doctrinal. Their armed forces have elected to continue to maintain themselves as a body meant for conventional warfare despite and in spite of their circumstances. To that end, they will always end up playing second fiddle to the PLA. Simple facts dictate that any battle fought by the ROCAF must be a delaying action, holding the line long enough until the diplomats can secure American military aid. By itself, the GuoJun can not hope to succeed in a conventional war. This highlights an inconsistency in the ROC's military doctrine and its present situation.

In lieu of relying on a conventional military that is vulnerable to Chinese air and missile attack(as well as, crucially, being starved out or worn down by mechanical attrition), it is most logical for the GuoJun to reform into a guerilla force that can better take advantage of Taiwan's mountainous terrain. Lush with tropical forest and steep hills and valleys, a Viet Cong-, DPRK- or even modern Chinese-style system of vast underground fortifications and tunnels would enable a protracted War of Resistance in the same method as the one fought against the Japanese just a scant few decades ago. In fact, the ROC already has a system in place that would enable such a doctrine.
Military service is mandatory for men nationwide in the ROC. All males who are able-bodied and pass a somewhat lax physical exam are conscripted to serve through four months of basic training. While many will leave boot camp without being truly battle-ready, certainly they learn enough to shoot a rifle and march through the jungle.

Ironically, instead of leveraging their mass of moderately-trained men towards an appropriate "rifle behind every blade of grass" guerilla doctrine, the ROCAF goes in for fighter jets, ships, tanks, and other staples of a conventional military which are vastly more vulnerable to the inevitable wide-ranging opening missile barrage. The reasoning for this is two-fold.

First and foremost, the ROCAF officer corps is overwhelmingly staffed by KMT party members who were trained on and continue to be trained on methods of conventional warfare. A doctrinal shift that would invalidate this entrenched club of loyalists would be a severe blow to one of the last solid bastions of KMT support during a time when the Taiwanese electorate is shifting increasingly towards the DPP. Furthermore, there is a distinct lack of incentive for people in command to make themselves defunct by negating all the training, exercises, and staff academy lectures they've served through.

Secondly and is the idea that a very visible and flamboyant resistance must be made to draw the Americans into supporting the ROC militarily. As surely as watching Russia annex Crimea has emboldened militants in China, it has worried Taiwanese who are increasingly aware of the unreliable nature of US aid. If America did not stay in Vietnam, and did not stand for Ukraine, and left the Kurds for dead, then how much faith can the ROC place in its current "hold the line till the Yanks get here" doctrine? Instead of a slow-burning guerilla campaign that melts into the mountains, Taiwanese military resistance must be high-profile to sway public sympathies in the US.

 

[Ardabas34]

Lots of legacy weapons. Power projection. Access to oil, which is critical in any war. Lose to China in a conventional war? No chance. Why do you think that when Russia just went it and took Crimea no one did anything? If China has even 1/10th the capability of Russia, they wouldn't be twiddling their thumbs about Taiwan.

Well if you look at that, Turkey captured Afrin effectively cutting the US vassal YPG's Kurdish corridor from Mediterranian Sea despite the US and whole West opposing it. Turkey also defeated France and Egypt in Libya, projecting its power more effectively.

 

[Ryder]

The US didnt fight Afghanistan, it fought Taliban, Conventional and Assymetric war are two pair of shoes.
They absolutely crushed Saddams Iraq which was stronger than Agfhanistan in any shape or form, it just depends on how much the US wants to invest in a victory.

Usa invaded an army that has all but been weakened for decades.

Iraqi army fought two wars before the us invasion of 2003 mixed in with economic chaos and sanctions.

I agree Iraq is stronger than Afghanistan but the USA faced an army that has not recovered for decades.

 

[Ryder]

Whole China vs Taiwan we can now agree that the Chinese Civil war has not ended as it is technically continuing well they are not fighting each other directly but politcally and diplomatically.

 

[xizhimen]

Thats more like a proxy war than a head on war.
Im talking about a war like US vs. Japan, ask the mighty Imperial Japanese army how invincible the US was, even before the bomb.

US can easily beat Japan was because back then US was the runaway leader of the world industrial and manufacturing power and it can outproduce Japan by a massive margin, but now these two titles are in China's hands.
China now produces and consumes over 60% of world total steel, a staggering percentage.

 

[Gary]

if PRC launched a full attack on Taiwan, the war will be over in hours. Even Taiwan generals and politicians told the public that Taiwan can't count on US military aid, it will never come, US won't risk everything for Taiwan, it's very clear and all Taiwan politicians know it.
US actually betrayed Taiwan after establishing relationship with PRC in 1970's, threw a decades old ally under the bus, US is a country that won't hesitate to sacrifice anyone for its own national interest.

How many hours exactly?

 

[xizhimen]

How many hours exactly?

Taiwan TV claims that PLA generals believe it can be done in 24 hours.

 

[xizhimen]

There are a lot of "Fifth columns" in Taiwan who are pro PRC, if a war real breaks out, PRC can get a lot of help from within Taiwan

Taiwanese celebrate PRC 's national day at Taipei railway station square in Taiwan

 

[Gary]

ok

let me give you some case study.

this is Aleppo, a city in northwestern Syria

size:190 km2
population: 1.8M

it took the SAA a brutal 4 years stalemate, in a house to house fighting, whilst having an army of (basically) angry civilians turned rebels.

Battle of Aleppo (2012–2016) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

the SAA had complete aerial supremacy over the rebels during the 4years long fight. an infinite amount of supply of artillery, men and machine. not to mention a relatively safe supply line into the city it didn't fell in 24 hours.

here case study#2

City: Mosul
Size: 180 km2
Population: 2M

Battle of Mosul (2016–2017) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

it took the might of approximately 100.000 Iraqi men, the non-stop 24/7 US+Allies aerial and artillery bombardment, tons of supply and above all an open supply line all the way from Baghdad to Mosul. it took the coalition 9 months+ to capture the entire city as well as it's surroundings.


now here's Taipei.

Size: 1,140 km2
population: 2,646,204

do you know that you only have like twice a year to do an amphibious landing in Taiwan?? otherwise the weather and current will not allow to do so.
not to mention you could only do that in some beachhead which is situated in the western flank of the island.
The Taiwanese would have ample time and preparations to detect and locate PLA massing point on the other side of the strait, the US will likely provide them with this. by that time they would have time to position it's missiles and long range artillery to basically turn your massing point into oblivion.

even if let's say you manage to miraculously have enough transport ship to transport your troops, you would still have to face losses from Taiwanese anti-ship missiles.
The Taiwan strait is like 180km wide, in peacetime you'll need hours to cross the strait, in wartime it'll took longer consider that you'd have to slow down to avoid minefields, etc.

if you manage to land what's left of your troops in Taiwan beaches, you'll have to fight Taiwanese men in those beaches, which not even in the best of situation will take a day.

after you secured the beachhead, you'll somewhat have to do with your limited men on the island to face and subdue the entirety of the island as well as it's cities, where ROC troops are waiting in ambush. Urban warfare and mountainous terrain as I have pointed above greatly benefited the defender.

the situation that Taiwanese military faces in regard to the PLA is not as dire of that the Syrian rebels and ISIS against the SAA and coalition.
24 hours to reclaim Taiwan is a fantasy.

that city (Taipei) is just one you would have to conquer, there's a lot of mega urban settlement in Taiwan, like Taichung

 

[xizhimen]

ok

let me give you some case study.

this is Aleppo, a city in northwestern Syria

size:190 km2
population: 1.8M

it took the SAA a brutal 4 years stalemate, in a house to house fighting, whilst having an army of (basically) angry civilians turned rebels.

Battle of Aleppo (2012–2016) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

the SAA had complete aerial supremacy over the rebels during the 4years long fight. an infinite amount of supply of artillery, men and machine. not to mention a relatively safe supply line into the city it didn't fell in 24 hours.

here case study#2

City: Mosul
Size: 180 km2
Population: 2M

Battle of Mosul (2016–2017) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

it took the might of approximately 100.000 Iraqi men, the non-stop 24/7 US+Allies aerial and artillery bombardment, tons of supply and above all an open supply line all the way from Baghdad to Mosul. it took the coalition 9 months+ to capture the entire city as well as it's surroundings.


now here's Taipei.

Size: 1,140 km2
population: 2,646,204

do you know that you only have like twice a year to do an amphibious landing in Taiwan?? otherwise the weather and current will not allow to do so.
not to mention you could only do that in some beachhead which is situated in the western flank of the island.
The Taiwanese would have ample time and preparations to detect and locate PLA massing point on the other side of the strait, the US will likely provide them with this. by that time they would have time to position it's missiles and long range artillery to basically turn your massing point into oblivion.

even if let's say you manage to miraculously have enough transport ship to transport your troops, you would still have to face losses from Taiwanese anti-ship missiles.
The Taiwan strait is like 180km wide, in peacetime you'll need hours to cross the strait, in wartime it'll took longer consider that you'd have to slow down to avoid minefields, etc.

if you manage to land what's left of your troops in Taiwan beaches, you'll have to fight Taiwanese men in those beaches, which not even in the best of situation will take a day.

after you secured the beachhead, you'll somewhat have to do with your limited men on the island to face and subdue the entirety of the island as well as it's cities, where ROC troops are waiting in ambush. Urban warfare and mountainous terrain as I have pointed above greatly benefited the defender.

the situation that Taiwanese military faces in regard to the PLA is not as dire of that the Syrian rebels and ISIS against the SAA and coalition.
24 hours to reclaim Taiwan is a fantasy.

that city (Taipei) is just one you would have to conquer, there's a lot of mega urban settlement in Taiwan, like Taichung

Do you know why Communist troops took over China so fast from ruling KMT government? Because of the mass surrender and army deserting their posts . No one in Taiwan really believes the island is defendable, one Taiwanese friend said to me that PRC doesn't need to land in Taiwan, just trial shoot some missiles in the sea near Taiwan's big cities, in hours all airports in Taiwan will be packed with people trying to catch the next flight to flee Taiwan. 台湾民心脆弱

 

[Gary]

Do you know why Communist troops took over China so fast from ruling KMT government? Because of the mass surrender and army deserting their posts . No one in Taiwan really believes the island is defendable, one Taiwanese friends said to me that PRC doesn't to land in Taiwan, just trial shoot some missiles in the sea near Taiwan's big cities, in hours all airports in Taiwan will be packed with people trying to catch the next flight to fleeing Taiwan.

I'm not saying that Taiwan is unconquerable, it's just having such fantasy to conquer them in mere hours, sounds a bit too unrealistic.

on paper you might have 2 million men in arms , but let's be real, how much does your transports are able to fit those men???
at best maybe 50.000. in which many will be targeted by Taiwanese anti ship missiles and mines, what's left of it will be facing ROC army of 200.000+.

24 hours??? I suggest this scenario involves PLA soldier walking unopposed in Taiwan highways.

 

[xizhimen]

I'm not saying that Taiwan is unconquerable, it's just having such fantasy to conquer them in mere hours, sounds a bit too unrealistic.

on paper you might have 2 million men in arms , but let's be real, how much does your transports are able to fit those men???
at best maybe 50.000. in which many will be targeted by Taiwanese anti ship missiles and mines, what's left of it will be facing ROC army of 200.000+.

24 hours??? I suggest this scenario involves PLA soldier walking unopposed in Taiwan highways.

I personally is against solving Taiwan issue by force, as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, both sides of the strait are happy, Taiwan's economy is totally dependent on mainland China, people in Taiwan are not that dumb to commit suicide by picking fight with the mainland.
As long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, people can forget about the rhetorics from either side, Taiwan is safe from wars.