India Coffee House

Nilgiri

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He can just travel to India without problems at the border(any border between the two countries)????????

He came via Dubai I think and I think he has Western passport too (i.e dual national), so its lot easier for him.
 

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(Sports thread has now been merged to coffee house)
 
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Nilgiri

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He has just started his Indian adventure and will be interesting to follow. @Jackdaws et al.

His travel series through Middle East was also very good.



Been catching up slowly when I have spare time, @Jackdaws et al. its a great series to watch....you watched any of it?

 

Jackdaws

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Been catching up slowly when I have spare time, @Jackdaws et al. its a great series to watch....you watched any of it?

Yea, saw parts of it. Dude has seen more of India than I. Seems like a nice guy and I really enjoyed how calmly he drove from Amritsar to Lahore on the bike with a German passport - like cross the US-Canada border at Niagara.

There is one Kiwi guy who has been to every state and UT.
 

Jackdaws

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He can just travel to India without problems at the border(any border between the two countries)????????
Yea. Because he has a German passport.

Else, Pakistanis are given city specific visas. I think there is an exception for business visas granted to very few Pakistani industrialists.
 

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Pak Woman Meets Noida Man While Playing PUBG, Comes To India With 4 Kids

 

Marlii

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@Afif is these numbers true? If they are then there is serious fudging of economy going on
 

Afif

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@Afif is these numbers true? If they are then there is serious fudging of economy going on

I have absolutely zero idea about anything related to economics, whether it is macro or micro.
And i don't know about those numbers either.

However, i agree that corruption is higher in BD than India.
And when it comes to overall economic development data, i don’t trust the government either.

But i think, data presented by world bank and IMF is reliable given they arent stupid enough to be just fed by local governments. But more importantly, they have internationally recognized independent sources as well as their own experts/delegation to examine and verify disputed and suspicious data.

Also, to my incomplete knowledge India and BDs economic and industrial structure is quite different. So, i am not sure if such direct one to one micro comparison would always make sense.

But as i said before, despite India and BDs GDP per capita being similar to each other, when it comes to high tech and heavy industry, right now India has some critical advantage over its neighbours due its economy+work force size and an early start. (At least compared to BD)
 
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Nilgiri

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@Afif is these numbers true? If they are then there is serious fudging of economy going on

I wouldn't read too much into GDP to begin with. It is an estimate for a reason. PPP measure tries to improve it, but it has its drawbacks too.

A lot of inflation/noise gets laundered in even by China:


Things simply get counted different by different countries in different ways for different reasons and purposes knowing GDP is a "one glance" number that gets lot of attention and repercussion from political superiors etc.

Even within China there was the li keqiang index promoted that tried to bypass the GDP inflation issue there for something more consistent to compare. Arvind Subramaniam started formulating something similar for India iirc....but it became political hot button topic just like Keqiang in CCP.

The problem for BD broadly speaking is , whatever its GDP, its not growing fast enough on or falling behind in some end-end vetted hard numbers like total exports, investment, market cap, tax revenue, base consumption (energy and other inputs) and other things it really should be focusing on improving (especially on the upstream investment, transparency and best fair regulation needed)....especially since these are fundamentally supply side oriented and are vetted things that all contribute to the GDP estimate (i.e you know the GDP will do well automatically, whatever you feel the fudge factors is, if these are improved)

India is behind on these as well compared to its potential, but BD has more to do on these relatively speaking. It especially needs to really attracting investment and start growing exports in other sectors past RMG.
 

Afif

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The problem for BD broadly speaking is , whatever its GDP, its not growing fast enough on or falling behind in some end-end vetted hard numbers like total exports, investment, market cap, tax revenue, base consumption (energy and other inputs) and other things it really should be focusing on improving (especially on the upstream investment, transparency and best fair regulation needed)....especially since these are fundamentally supply side oriented and are vetted things that all contribute to the GDP estimate (i.e you know the GDP will do well automatically, whatever you feel the fudge factors is, if these are improved)

India is behind on these as well compared to its potential, but BD has more to do on these relatively speaking. It especially needs to really attracting investment and start growing exports in other sectors past RMG.

I think, we could have lived up to our potentials in those specific areas that you mentioned.
However, for last 17 years rampant corruption stalled our progress.

You know when there is a transparent democratic government, there is always a limit to corruption.
However, when you have questionable elections, and then politicization of judiciary and state's other institutions to secure your stay in power, well....it is really not very ideal for economic progress.

One big difference between India and BD is that, thanks to its size India's critical institutions and political system can never be (seriously) infiltrated even by superpowers. India is just too big to be a pawn in others great power competition.

On the other hand, BD being a small country suffered from great powers conflicting interest in the region. And various parts of its political establishment became pawns in someone else's game to secure their stay in power or to grab it next time.

Although this is an oversimplification of the situation, (i am not trying to be accurate here) what matters is if we can reform our critical institutions (actually the whole system at this point) soon enough to keep up with India.
 
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Jackdaws

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He has been silent on a number of issues and this has kind of exposed him. 9 years is a long time.

He has overseen the disastrous demonetisation. Tepid response to Corona. Allied with likes of Bhujbal and Ajit Pawar, literally days after calling them corrupt. Kept quiet on the women wrestlers protest. Kept quiet on Manipur. What am I missing?
 

Nilgiri

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He has been silent on a number of issues and this has kind of exposed him. 9 years is a long time.

He has overseen the disastrous demonetisation. Tepid response to Corona. Allied with likes of Bhujbal and Ajit Pawar, literally days after calling them corrupt. Kept quiet on the women wrestlers protest. Kept quiet on Manipur. What am I missing?

The vote share and opinion polls more or less remain intact, especially in the areas that will turnout to vote solidly in the northern heartland again with the obligatory +10 +20% top up (vote share) for federal election compared to state.

I guess lets see what the vote shares look like in the rest of state elections this year. Karnataka BJP more or less retained its vote share, and this is a southern state too.
 

Jackdaws

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The vote share and opinion polls more or less remain intact, especially in the areas that will turnout to vote solidly in the northern heartland again with the obligatory +10 +20% top up (vote share) for federal election compared to state.

I guess lets see what the vote shares look like in the rest of state elections this year. Karnataka BJP more or less retained its vote share, and this is a southern state too.
I guess they are in the long run cutting the branch they are sitting on. The more they destroy smaller regional parties like NCP, SS, BSP - the more likely is that vote share going over to the Congress.
 

Nilgiri

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I guess they are in the long run cutting the branch they are sitting on. The more they destroy smaller regional parties like NCP, SS, BSP - the more likely is that vote share going over to the Congress.

Somehow I doubt it. Anyway it all needs some more election cycle data to see what settles where as people also dont take too kindly to weird shenanigans like SS suddenly becoming overnight partners with congress and calling it "secular hindutva" or whatever

Longer term there is matter of how BJP does after Modi era etc. There is no Modi in the wings after Modi I can see (w.r.t this 10% - 20% top off that happens federally in voteshare for strongman dynamic etc)....so that is a silver lining, but the other parties need to know how to recover things in this as well. They need to build up some serious candidates in big tent way....the old faces and dynasties should reform their role in this rather than be prima donna and predictable types.

The larger issue isnt going away w.r.t UP bedrock (and BIMARU broadly) for BJP. The other parties are pretty useless there and there is grievance and polarised dynamic BJP has squared away till at least 2050 by my estimation.

If this translates into a default 200 seat springboard for BJP federally consistently, the opposition needed a concerted plan on that from 2014 itself....and they dont really have one now, they are playing games by the rules BJP is setting in deep interior part of those areas.

Politics in India is in a hopeless naive state on many crucial details (I used to always think just how terrible TN had it, since I know it best relative to other states....but its really a general symptom everywhere you look with a few names and issues and contexts changed)....so much so that TN is somewhat lauded as "better run" and "better off" compared to Indian average....which is nuts given how bad things were squandered on many things "even" in TN.

No one powerful or influential enough is really evolving their thinking and action enough (and willing to take an election cycle hit or two to develop and commit to a long term strategy properly). It is all throw some darts at the board randomly....and who can get the most raw amount of darts from the gullible, tribal and ignorant enough people.

Likely would have been a very different India today if we had Nehru + Shastri types alternating federally, and every state has Kamaraj style types frequently enough....to keep the inevitable negative minded types in check to damage they can do and sustain.

Instead the lady let things get to her head real easy and leaves the utter power-freak and prima donna identity politics legacy of what we have now.

My pawps still curses Virudhunagar people for giving Kamaraj that send off electorally at the end....this is how ingrateful and stupid Tamils can be. But it is fairly small mundane stuff compared to what has happened in every part of country since.
 

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