India Coffee House

[Jackdaws]

Meanwhile Modi

His "blah blah" is so nice, I posted it twice.

 

[Afif]

But he is gonna win anyway.
Majority of Indian still support him.

 

[Marlii]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1690689571837685760

 

[Marlii]

But he is gonna win anyway.
Majority of Indian still support him.

At the end majority of Indians don't care about any of the politics and will vote for anyone who gives some massive changes.Modi going and inaugurating every single of the new semi high speed vande Bharat train in the country is the greatest example.

When some one say that he will replace these rustbuckets into these

All over the country. people will vote for him and also note how the early version of this train was white now it's orange

 

[Jackdaws]

But he is gonna win anyway.
Majority of Indian still support him.

He is the frontrunner for sure. Majority of Indians don't support him. But his party has cracked the code of electoral arithmetic by dividing the opposition vote. They will sweep UP and Gujarat with atleast 100 seats right there. But getting 172 seats from the rest of the states might not be as easy as last time.

 

[Nilgiri]

He is the frontrunner for sure. Majority of Indians don't support him. But his party has cracked the code of electoral arithmetic by dividing the opposition vote. They will sweep UP and Gujarat with atleast 100 seats right there. But getting 172 seats from the rest of the states might not be as easy as last time.

Depends how you mean "support" when you look past tiers that fork out a direct vote for Modi/BJP for national election (Lets call that ~ 40% of national population now).

A solid 30 or 40% chunk of the population do not directly vote for BJP, but they do have grey support for Modi at helm if you look at the opinion polls nationally that have been done (he gets somewhere from 60 - 80% total approval).

This means such folks do not consolidate to the likeliest candidate to flip a lok sabha seat against the BJP...especially in close enough races where this would happen if they do not support Modi to sufficient degree (the data can be looked at). i.e they are not strictly anti-BJP....and in many cases would prefer Modi over any prominent opposition candidate to run things at centre.

This is a serious problem for opposition they still have not grappled with in any meaningful way....they go with the flow ever since 2014.

 

[Jackdaws]

Depends how you mean "support" when you look past tiers that fork out a direct vote for Modi/BJP for national election (Lets call that ~ 40% of national population now).

A solid 30 or 40% chunk of the population do not directly vote for BJP, but they do have grey support for Modi at helm if you look at the opinion polls nationally that have been done (he gets somewhere from 60 - 80% total approval).

This means such folks do not consolidate to the likeliest candidate to flip a lok sabha seat against the BJP...especially in close enough races where this would happen if they do not support Modi to sufficient degree (the data can be looked at). i.e they are not strictly anti-BJP....and in many cases would prefer Modi over any prominent opposition candidate to run things at centre.

This is a serious problem for opposition they still have not grappled with in any meaningful way....they go with the flow ever since 2014.

The highest BJP has ever polled is 37% and that was in 2019. Even then Congress clocked in 20%. You are from the South, you would know better but I don't see BJP making a dent in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Telangana. They have a footprint in Karnataka so they will definitely do decently there. They did spectacularly in Bengal in 2019 without even having a cadre, so I don't see them repeating that either. In Maharashtra, they are desperate and are even scared to hold Municipal polls in Bombay - because the Uddhav Sena will rout them. Remember, after UP, Maharashtra has the highest number of seats. Perhaps someone can enlighten us about Madhya Pradesh and the other north central Indian states like Bihar, Jharkhand. Of course the BJP will win in a canter in UP and Gujarat. But I doubt they can replicate the spectacular margin of victory in UP. North East hardly sends any members to the Lok Sabha. Haryana, BJP will do well. Punjab they most likely won't. Goa is small too. My guess is BJP will be the largest party in terms of seats and vote share with approx between 200-230 seats. Perhaps they will get allies from BJD, YSR Congress or TDP to get over the line. But they've burnt so many bridges with their own allies, so it might be a tall order.

 

[Nilgiri]

The highest BJP has ever polled is 37% and that was in 2019. Even then Congress clocked in 20%. You are from the South, you would know better but I don't see BJP making a dent in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Telangana. They have a footprint in Karnataka so they will definitely do decently there. They did spectacularly in Bengal in 2019 without even having a cadre, so I don't see them repeating that either. In Maharashtra, they are desperate and are even scared to hold Municipal polls in Bombay - because the Uddhav Sena will rout them. Remember, after UP, Maharashtra has the highest number of seats. Perhaps someone can enlighten us about Madhya Pradesh and the other north central Indian states like Bihar, Jharkhand. Of course the BJP will win in a canter in UP and Gujarat. But I doubt they can replicate the spectacular margin of victory in UP. North East hardly sends any members to the Lok Sabha. Haryana, BJP will do well. Punjab they most likely won't. Goa is small too. My guess is BJP will be the largest party in terms of seats and vote share with approx between 200-230 seats. Perhaps they will get allies from BJD, YSR Congress or TDP to get over the line. But they've burnt so many bridges with their own allies, so it might be a tall order.

a) They said all these things w.r.t 2019 leadup too given RJ and MP elections without looking at voteshare effect in federal FPTP w.r.t grey support top off there. Then 2019 happened and they seemed to have learned zilch from it, especially on the ground where it matters. These people are for some reason extremely insular from the public on number of issues, even their party workers are treated like cannon fodder and useful idiots.

b) Is there really any change in BIMARU given sufficient "swing" voters always going to opt for Modi-BJP at center compared to "trust me bro, we'll tell you afterwards which of us we'll pick to be PM"? What is the exact change in the model to address the model that the BJP has proven and established?

c) You mention Bengal as an example, any change in polarisation of bengal from 2019? TMC has gone out of its way to make outreach to parts of bengal switching to BJP? These people switched to BJP on a swing issue thing or its coming from a deeper issue that has hardened and wont change now? Please im all ears to hear something different about it from what ive heard from bengali friends about it

d) "trust me bro" no clear candidate alliance (with prima donna tensions kept under the lid for now, lets see how long it lasts) is going to decisively change a BSP, JDS, YSR, TRS, BJD, SAD, bengali "leftie authoritarian" voter from sticking to that splitting vote instead of backing the nebulous PM still to be decided when it comes to centre power at stake....or even voting for BJP?

e) It's all related to mental decrepitude of PDF indians knowing fully well alternate fora have been started like this one. Yet they are utterly addicted to masochist dhimmitude there and all kinds of related deep mental illness and victimisation regarding domestic affairs as well.

Enough Ex-PDF indians really lift a finger to even try do something about those folks stuck there circling the drain like its a day job?

So an unknown but large enough % of Indians are stuck that way more broadly speaking because of their metaphysical construct in their psyche.....but hey sure, maybe selling exact same snake oil as 2019 by opposition in exact same way, with a little different rebranding will shift a big thing this time somehow.

i.e do same stuff, expect different results in the far downstream (easy lazy privileged butthead attitude of surrounding yourself with yes-people and those ready to fawn over you)....rather than pitching in to do your bit in the upstream after understanding the upstream (esp the grievance dynamics) to begin with (hard work, rub shoulders with socially undesirable and malcontents that have serious issues with you that you got to figure out etc etc).

Its very mentally sound approach.....not insanity at all right?

Dont fret too much about it though, this is universal phenonmenon in our species at large. There is a big void of disconnect in love, dreams and hopes between those at the top, and those at the bottom that will rarely be reconciled to degrees and scales we would prefer. Like the one bedouin woman tells the fleeing prince of egypt about the hole in his heart...... "love is not an art to us....it is life to us!"

 

[Nilgiri]

Forgot to post it earlier....

Some highlights from the Asian Champion trophy that just concluded with India beating Malaysia 4 - 3 in the Final:

 

[Jackdaws]

India is the top team in Asia now by a distance. I think in 5 years it will be the best team in the world.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695881432210801031

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695883848335458688

 

[TR_123456]

Pffft you and your Cricket.

This is more important,

 

[Afif]

Pffft you and your Cricket.

The problem is not enough people watches these staff here.
If it were a Bangladeshi I can tell you, it wouldn't have been a big deal. (At least not for me)
However, when it comes world second largest sport Cricket, we all are.........
Only 1 month left to the world cup 2023. Wait for it and you will see....

 

[TR_123456]

The problem is not enough people watches these staff here.
If it were a Bangladeshi I can tell you, it wouldn't have been a big deal. (At least not for me)
However, when it comes world second largest sport Cricket, we all are.........
Only 1 month left to the world cup 2023. Wait for it and you will see....

What second largest,its not even in the top 10?
Dont go by population but by countries.

 

[Ryder]

The problem is not enough people watches these staff here.
If it were a Bangladeshi I can tell you, it wouldn't have been a big deal. (At least not for me)
However, when it comes world second largest sport Cricket, we all are.........
Only 1 month left to the world cup 2023. Wait for it and you will see....

CRICKET WORLD CUP> SHITTY FIFA WORLD CUP

Proud to be a cricket fan.

 

[Ryder]

What second largest,its not even in the top 10?
Dont go by population but by countries.

Cricket is the best sport.

 

[TR_123456]

Cricket is the best sport.

Yeah,im sure you're good at it.
Know the rules?

 

[Ryder]

Yeah,im sure you're good at it.
Know the rules?

Im bad at it but its the best

 

[Afif]

What second largest,its not even in the top 10?
Dont go by population but by countries.

Not by the population of countries that plays cricket, but by the numbers of fans to be more precise.

1. Football has 3.5 billions

2. Cricket has 2.5 billions. (Majority of them from Subcontinent of course)

 

[TR_123456]

Not by the population of countries that plays cricket, but by the numbers of fans to be more precise.

1. Football has 3.5 billions

2. Cricket has 2.5 billions. (Majority of them from Subcontinent of course)

So,lets take those three countries out and see whats left,do the same with football,basketball,volleyball.