Historical Combat, War, Geopolitics History and Analysis

Afif

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Consider that the country you mentioned doesn't have a particularly bright record on human treatment, it's not surprising.

In the 70s, Saudi, Indonesia, Turkey are considered close allies with Pakistan (against Soviet Communism) and considerable ties in the field of intelligence,so maybe that explain.

Yes, but that was 50 years ago.
Today Pakistan doesn't have extra privileges over BD, and circumstances has changed a lot.
Yet, everybody still prefer silence on the matter today.

At the time of operation torchlight, these respective country would have seen it as internal Pakistan matters

Hehe, as much as I love your phrasing 'operation torchlight' it was actually 'operation Searchlight' 😁
 
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Gary

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Yes, but that was 50 years ago.
Today Pakistan doesn't have extra privileges over BD, and circumstances changed a lot.
Yet, everybody still prefer silence on the matter today.



Hehe, as much as I love your phrasing 'operation torchlight' it was actually 'operation Searchlight' 😁
I mean is not that easy you know, suddenly out of nowhere we declare Pakistan is responisble for genocide.

=========================
Anyway, recently I watched this, 50+ years after the war, Bangladesh had already overtaken both Pakistan and India. Bangladesh is already a more advanced country in all levels than Pakistan (minus its military off course)

 

Ryder

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I mean is not that easy you know, suddenly out of nowhere we declare Pakistan is responisble for genocide.

=========================
Anyway, recently I watched this, 50+ years after the war, Bangladesh had already overtaken both Pakistan and India. Bangladesh is already a more advanced country in all levels than Pakistan (minus its military off course)


For Bangladesh to achieve this is pretty embarassing for both Pakistan and India. Bangladesh in the future will become a success story.

If Sri Lanka wants to be successful they should emulate Bangladesh.
 
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Gary

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For Bangladesh to achieve this is pretty embarassing for both Pakistan and India. Bangladesh in the future will become a success story.

If Sri Lanka wants to be successful they should emulate Bangladesh.

In 1971, the two parted path, one chooses to avenge defeat by throwing effort to increase military spending and nuclearized, even if they have to 'eat grass' , the other chose development with just enough military muscle. The choice they made that day is what bear fruit now. Pakistan is currently 'eating grass' (metaphorically) while Bangladesh is more advanced economically.

Seems like Karachi is already behind Dhaka already in development, which is an irony. This is like as if Jayapura suddenly has a better infrastructure than Jakarta.

 

Afif

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Tbh, economically speaking India has some advantages due to its size (Yes, size does matter)

For example, they have stablished aerospace, automobile and IT industry.

Also, thank to its newly expanded strategic relationship with the West w.r.t PRC, it is going to receive a lot of direct foreign investment as big western companies will gradually relocate their manufacturing bases from PRC to India.
@Nilgiri Probably could explain it better. (I think Indonesia also has a similar window of opportunity here.) On a side note- It also seems interesting to me that, despite already having such advantageous industrial capabilities somehow India's per capita GDP is still not considerably ahead of BD.



However, when it comes to social development, (to me at certain extent which is more important than economic development) i can confidently say we are ahead of our immediate neighbors.

One such example is Women's relative labour force participation-

In India and Pakistan it is 24% and 25% respectively. While in BD it is 38%.


Although I do recognise that, socio-cultural environment in India and Pakistan is much more complicated than Bangladesh. Dozen of different language and identities, tribal structures still operating in rural areas to some extent.
Naturally, in such environment rapid social modernization would be hard compared to an ethnically and religiously (almost) homogeneous country like Bangladesh.
 
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Nilgiri

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Don't know if you guys watched it before, but for me it was interesting.
@Nilgiri @Ryder @Gary @F-6 enthusiast et al.


Edit- Question, why nobody recognizes anything?
Whatever happened in 1971, (Whether you consider it genocode or not) international community (including many prominent muslim countries like Turkey, KSA, Indonesia, Malaysia) are surprisingly silent about it compared to other atrocities of 20th century.

However, I should also add, there is not so much grievance in Bangladeshi society today about what happened 50 years ago, compared to others societies in different parts of the world who seriously hold on the memories of atrocities that were committed against them.

Regd the West, they (at least the two large ones: US and UK) were largely on the wrong side of the war among their political collective elitists due to cold war.

i.e one can think how different it would have been in coverage and support (if exact same set of events) in alternate universe where say India was western ally and Pakistan was Soviet one....and a Blood telegram etc arrived to the same US state dept and president of the time. The raw numbers would have reversed factionally w.r.t establishment vs say Ted Kennedy et al.

As for OIC, its similar kind of thing....they found themselves on the wrong side at large.

Then downstream the evidence of the atrocity scale just raises uncomfy questions of challenging reasons why you were on the wrong side. Few if any countries are seriously prepared to delve into that as it opens up more questions of where they were on the wrong side before and since....and that erodes political trust past what already happens in natural course of other events.

This adds to the "othering" of people far away that takes on racial, ethnic, social distance factor from another population at large etc (given what already happens domestically already in sufficiently large population countries)...that the documentary touches upon as well.

Terrible mass scale warfare in Africa for example, evidence is simply othered, retconned, memory holed and so on by most of the rest of the world incl the West.

In BD own case, it doesnt help that there some % of the relatively elitist population that go out of their way to undermine the facts of the 71 war and BD's formation and liberation simply to make some emotional bridge with hyper-extremists from Pakistan or wherever else. There is a reason why they fester at PDF for example....and didnt follow the Turks to this forum (and its Ataturk style fresh clean start principle) as they prefer indulging their psychological baggage with those that have the same deep immoral proclivities.

Anyway it is a grave weakness in the human species to be like this in whatever intensities and tiers (though maybe there is some improvement over time from earlier grossly non-enlightened era).... as Seneca put it: “All cruelty springs from weakness.”

In any case what matters in 1971 is that the side of truth and good won....falsehood and evil lost....that is what is important in the end.

Whatever the challenges in front of it still, I for one am glad larger BD vindicates its liberation increasingly with time.

That too after being called "basket case" by that wretch Kissinger....reflected in the tone the final third or so of this documentary as well (as though BD will always remain in its pitiful state of that time)

It is testament to greatest virtue courage that BD survived its darkest period and now prospers more each day, it is no small feat.
The sacrifice of both the victims and the brave fighters on both sides of BD and India did not go in vain.

Emon deshti kothao khuje pabe nako tumi...
Shokol desher rani shey je, amar jonmobhumi.

Nowhere will you find a nation so grand...
Queen of all the lands , my motherland.
 

Afif

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Regd the West, they (at least the two large ones: US and UK) were largely on the wrong side of the war among their political collective elitists due to cold war.

i.e one can think how different it would have been in coverage and support (if exact same set of events) in alternate universe where say India was western ally and Pakistan was Soviet one....and a Blood telegram etc arrived to the same US state dept and president of the time. The raw numbers would have reversed factionally w.r.t establishment vs say Ted Kennedy et al.

As for OIC, its similar kind of thing....they found themselves on the wrong side at large.

Then downstream the evidence of the atrocity scale just raises uncomfy questions of challenging reasons why you were on the wrong side. Few if any countries are seriously prepared to delve into that as it opens up more questions of where they were on the wrong side before and since....and that erodes political trust past what already happens in natural course of other events.

This adds to the "othering" of people far away that takes on racial, ethnic, social distance factor from another population at large etc (given what already happens domestically already in sufficiently large population countries)...that the documentary touches upon as well.

Terrible mass scale warfare in Africa for example, evidence is simply othered, retconned, memory holed and so on by most of the rest of the world incl the West.

In BD own case, it doesnt help that there some % of the relatively elitist population that go out of their way to undermine the facts of the 71 war and BD's formation and liberation simply to make some emotional bridge with hyper-extremists from Pakistan or wherever else. There is a reason why they fester at PDF for example....and didnt follow the Turks to this forum (and its Ataturk style fresh clean start principle) as they prefer indulging their psychological baggage with those that have the same deep immoral proclivities.

Anyway it is a grave weakness in the human species to be like this in whatever intensities and tiers (though maybe there is some improvement over time from earlier grossly non-enlightened era).... as Seneca put it: “All cruelty springs from weakness.”

In any case what matters in 1971 is that the side of truth and good won....falsehood and evil lost....that is what is important in the end.

Whatever the challenges in front of it still, I for one am glad larger BD vindicates its liberation increasingly with time.

That too after being called "basket case" by that wretch Kissinger....reflected in the tone the final third or so of this documentary as well (as though BD will always remain in its pitiful state of that time)

It is testament to greatest virtue courage that BD survived its darkest period and now prospers more each day, it is no small feat.
The sacrifice of both the victims and the brave fighters on both sides of BD and India did not go in vain.

Emon deshti kothao khuje pabe nako tumi...
Shokol desher rani shey je, amar jonmobhumi.

Nowhere will you find a nation so grand...
Queen of all the lands , my motherland.

I am giving you an 'excellent post' without giving you an 'excellent post'


Also, on a side note- I should say, my views on India-BD relationship changed to certain extent from previously. (Thanks to my academic first year in sociology as well as my own extracurricular reading on topics like history and politics)
Perhaps, now I am less influenced by online and youtube comment sections. (But it still bother me a great deal)
 

Nilgiri

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Tbh, economically speaking India has some advantages due to its size (Yes, size does matter)

For example, they have stablished aerospace, automobile and IT industry.

Also, thank to its newly expanded strategic relationship with the West w.r.t PRC, it is going to receive a lot of direct foreign investment as big western companies will gradually relocate their manufacturing bases from PRC to India.
@Nilgiri Probably could explain it better. (I think Indonesia also has a similar window of opportunity here.) On a side note- It also seems interesting to me that, despite already having such advantageous industrial capabilities somehow India's per capita GDP is still not considerably ahead of BD.



However, when it comes to social development, (to me at certain extent which is more important than economic development) i can confidently say we are ahead of our immediate neighbors.

One such example is Women's relative labour force participation-

In India and Pakistan it is 24% and 25% respectively. While in BD it is 38%.


Although I do recognise that, socio-cultural environment in India and Pakistan is much more complicated than Bangladesh. Dozen of different language and identities, tribal structures still operating in rural areas to some extent.
Naturally, in such environment rapid social modernization would be hard compared to an ethnically and religiously (almost) homogeneous country like Bangladesh.

Both India and Bangladesh need lot more supply side improvement in economy (and all the investment this requires) as a much larger priority first before concerning themselves with numbers like female labour force participation.

Just look at the spread within India that doesn't really correlate to anything much:


eg chandigarh at 18% and chattisgarh at 52%.

i.e number of socially and economically backward states (to the indian average) have much higher female labour participation...and vice versa too exists.

The "anomalies" look too frequent to me, so it lends me to cast doubt on the tiers of definition and quality of the job (compared to say household family rearing) and distress being inflicted by a bad supply side (to maybe make a woman find a low quality job to augment household income etc, rather than any relative emancipation from "social reform" + demand side).

These things only take more consequence to study, balance wise when there is much more supply side saturation of decent productive jobs. Then a debate can properly be constructed on data regarding what is the female labour participation in such countries that best promotes the TFR staying as close to 2.1 as possible or maybe even a bit higher than that given the lessons we are seeing and see even more from China going forward on the huge problem created there by a long term pyramid inversion by its TFR being close to 1 for so long and likely to drop further (given the problems it has added on top with housing real estate investment chokepoints and so on, that make family rearing where the productive jobs are located extremely difficult and costly even compared to developed world relatively speaking).

Even within India there is whole set of issues created now where the TFR is very low in the South and the internal migration being done from the north to backfill this.

There is no need for India and Bangladesh to repeat same mistakes of developed world and China. A more optimal balance of maintaining TFR around 2.1 within the best possible economic supply side saturation and let the labour force participation (between the genders) fall as they may in optimal way regarding that, given the importance of the job that is child rearing + hearth ( 2 - 4 kids etc to make up for folks that do not have kids at all in the population that is expected to increase too).....without overfocus on demand push approach that just goes way too slowly to begin with.
 

Afif

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Which book is it? Looks like an interesting read.

Anyway, here are my (incomplete?) thoughts on this sensitive and complicated topic in light of history.

First and foremost, empires are meant to rise and fall.
There is no other way around it, regardless of any circumstances.

Secondly, an Empire only becomes Empire when it is a multi-ethnic, multi-racial (and even multi-religious) diverse Entity.
Otherwise, it would be a (small or large) kingdom/nation state. (Not in today’s terms of course)

My core argument is, inter-racial, inter-ethnic and inter-religious tension, lack of harmony and Dysfunctional interaction is not the 'first cause' of empire’s decay.
Rather, it is the consequence of systematic failure.
(But then of course, these tension, lack of harmony and dysfunctional interactions between races, ethnicities and religious groups itself speed up the decay. But nevertheless it is not the 'first cause')

Let me explain that in theory.

A hypothetical Empire's overall greatness and affluence reaches its peak when the SYSTEM is functioning most efficiently.

Efficient functioning of the 'SYSTEM' means, harmonious and functioning interaction between races, ethnicities and religious groups (given almost by definition Empires are diverse) and everybody living up to their potential.

(However, even if principles of a SYSTEM in paper agrees on Almost equality for everyone in terms of political, economic and social rights regardless race ethnicity and religion, in reality such equality is never achieved.
There always be dominance, bias and discrimination to some extent.)

Now what is this 'SYSTEM' itself?
I think, informally it can be described best as, 'the political, economic and social structure' that Empire produces for its own functioning.

And any such SYSTEM highly reflects the ethos of early conquerors or the imperial race/ethnicity/religious group.


Now, when it comes to the European empires, the SYSTEMS in principle never called for equality for everyone (regardless of race, ethnicity and religion) on paper, let alone in real world implementations.

In later stage of the Empires, (Let's call it the age of commerce and affluence) European SYSTEMS we’re implemented in such a way to give its imperial subjects (other racial, ethnic and religious groups) very limited political, economic and social rights just good enough to keep the overall stability and status quo but to maximumly benefit the conquerors or mother countries. (in that case, Britain and France) Hence, why we hear a lot about political and economic exploitation of the Empires today.

I wrote, 'in the later stage of the empires' because, in the early stage it was mostly savageness and slavery.

So, these European empirical SYSTEMS functioned for a while in this age of commerce and affluence and kept a relative stability by the use of soft and hard powers w.r.t its subjects.
Until, these SYSTEMS became dysfunctional and all kind of instabilities spread, ultimately resulting in territorial disintegration of the Empires.

It is very important to keep in mind, our whole discussion here focusing on Domestic and Internal causes and effects on an empire and its SYSTEM.

Otherwise, an empire's territorial disintegration could also happen (and pretty often did happen in real world) due to external causes. Like conquest by other empires. (However, ultimately this is also a consequence of lack of efficiency in the SYSTEM of conquered and Subjected Empire. As one Empire would overtakes another when its SYSTEM is functioning better than the other one and delivering more productivity)



Now, I don't have enough knowledge to comment on the Roman Empire but, when it comes to early Islamic caliphate, Ummayed or Abbasid Empires, (and later the Ottomans to some extent) i can confidently say, they had quite different SYSTEMS in principle (on paper) as well as in implementation (in real world.) Compared to the late European Empires.

Because……well…..first and foremost, these unified SYSTEMS (vastly influenced by Sunni schools of jurisprudence) in principle and on paper strongly calls for equal rights for every Muslim regardless racial or ethnic backgrounds. (And as the the Empire grew older and more and more people converted to Islam, they became beneficiary of the systematic rights.

Of course, that is not to say in real world implementations it stopped all discrimination and bias. (Far from it)


(It doesn't matter if humanity has the most perfect and harmonious SYSTEM in their hand, there always be decriminalization in real world implications. Bacause, human species by nature is imperfect)

However, European SYSTEMS in principle did not grant the equal rights to the masses (in different parts of the Empires) who converted to Christianity and embraced European Cultures, let alone in real world implementations.

They continued the systematic emphasis on the superiority of the mother countires/nations. (Due to overwhelming racial and ethnic prejudices)

In fact, I would even argue the status of 'protected person' (non muslims) in Islamoc Empires was higher than subjects of the European Empires. (Of course, a lot can be debated in particular about this topic)



Last but the not the least, it is very important to keep in mind, every unified Grand SYSTEM as whole consist largely two parts.
Firstly, Some fundamental political, economic and social ideas at its core about the 'Order of things' and the way everything should be.

Secondly, a vast and complicated frameworks and structural processes to successfully implement those ideas in real world.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, the later is the most crucial element of any 'Unified SYSTEM.'

Let's me explain why-
Most of the political or social ideologies has some nice and cool watchwords at its cores. But those are pretty much meaningless if the frameworks and processes to implement them in a highly complicated real world are not coherent and functional.

In fact, it is not always the bad ideologies (like Nazism) that leads to violence and suffering. Rather, pretty often it is good ideologies (in principle) with incoherent and dysfunctional framework and processes (about how to implement them) that leads to violence and suffering.

(One could easily take Communism as such example. While on paper its core ideas about equality and justice apparently sounds pretty good, However, in real world implementations it led to horrible consequences due to its incoherent and dysfunctional frameworks and structural processes of the communism.)


(Let's say, if we consider the rights and facilities as an 'spectrum', here is an interesting thought experiment.

So let's say, a certain SYSTEM offer 80% rights and facilities for a certain group of people in principle. But in real world implementations it can only deliver 70%.

On the other hand, another SYSTEM offer 100% in principle to everyone.
But in real world implementations, it can only deliver 50% to certain group of people.

Which one do you think better?

Of course you can argue that, the one that offers 100% facilities equally to everyone, always has the chance to reform and adapt its framework and structural processes to deliver desirable outcomes in real world.
However, the one that 'descriminately' offer 80% facilities to certain groups of people will never deliver equality in real world implementations no matter what. Because, in principle it is discriminatory.

The issue is not so much that it is false. Rather, apparently it seems to be true, however, the core issue lies somewhere else.
Which is, there is no such thing as absolute equality for every group.
We all know that in real world, this is true. But that is not what I am talking about here.
What I mean is, the idea of absolute equality for everyone is an incoherent concept in itself.
Because, absolute equality cannot produce any functioning structure.

As any structure in this material universe by definition requires hierarchy to function. (And a functioning structure is necessary to implement any core principles)

It is no-brainer that, absolute equality and a hierarchy are by definition two opposite concepts.
(Consequently, the idea of absolute equality is self defeating.)

And the Second aspect of this topic has to do with longevity and endurance of any given unified SYSTEM.

When we know absolute equality for everyone is not possible, in this case at some point there has to be prioritisation of someone's right over someone else's right.
In any given scenario at such point someone will feel discriminated against. (There is no other way around it)

When such stage arrises, either you have to discriminate against the majority or the minority and prioritise one's right over the other's.

This process always gradually builds up discontent against the SYSTEM in people who has been 'discriminated against'.

Now if it is the minority who has been 'discriminated against' little bit, the effect of this discontent on the SYSTEM would be lesser and slower than if it was the other way around.
Thus, the SYSTEM likely to remain more functional for longer period of time.

In a nutshell, 'limited discrimination' against minorities is a necessary evil for greater good. Because, (let’s not forget) when SYSTEM becomes dysfunctional it is almost always the non-dominant minority who suffers the most.

Also, one effective way to counterbalance it, is to base the concept of majority on dominant culture and ideology, rather than race and ethnicity. As the later two cannot be negotiated or changed, however, anybody can always culturally adopt any change.

So, the concept of majority based on culture is an inclusive and flexible majority.
Similar to the 'Majority' in Islamic thought)
 

Gary

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Which book is it? Looks like an interesting read.

John Glubb, The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival

I recommend as a good read, there's a lot of similarity between 21st century West with that of the past empires in decay, in particular similarity is the Abbasid with today's major Western power (USA, UK, France)

some notable similarity just before the empire collapse:

  1. Widespread knowledge and competition in academics
  2. Empowering of Women
  3. 5 day work week
  4. Loosening of morality, replaced with banality and sexual depravity

etc
 

Afif

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1. Last but the not the least, it is very important to keep in mind, every unified Grand SYSTEM as whole consist largely two parts.
Firstly, Some fundamental political, economic and social ideas at its core about the 'Order of things' and the way everything should be.

Secondly, a vast and complicated frameworks and structural processes to successfully implement those ideas in real world.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, the later is the most crucial element of any 'Unified SYSTEM.'

Let's me explain why-
Most of the political or social ideologies has some nice and cool watchwords at its cores. But those are pretty much meaningless if the frameworks and processes to implement them in a highly complicated real world are not coherent and functional.

In fact, it is not always the bad ideologies (like Nazism) that leads to violence and suffering. Rather, pretty often it is good ideologies (in principle) with incoherent and dysfunctional framework and processes (about how to implement them) that leads to violence and suffering.

(One could easily take Communism as such example. While on paper its core ideas about equality and justice apparently sounds pretty good, However, in real world implementations it led to horrible consequences due to its incoherent and dysfunctional frameworks and structural processes of the communism.)


(Let's say, if we consider the rights and facilities as an 'spectrum', here is an interesting thought experiment.

So let's say, a certain SYSTEM offer 80% rights and facilities for a certain group of people in principle. But in real world implementations it can only deliver 70%.

On the other hand, another SYSTEM offer 100% in principle to everyone.
But in real world implementations, it can only deliver 50% to certain group of people.

Which one do you think better?

Of course you can argue that, the one that offers 100% facilities equally to everyone, always has the chance to reform and adapt its framework and structural processes to deliver desirable outcomes in real world.
However, the one that 'descriminately' offer 80% facilities to certain groups of people will never deliver equality in real world implementations no matter what. Because, in principle it is discriminatory.

2. The issue is not so much that it is false. Rather, apparently it seems to be true, however, the core issue lies somewhere else.
Which is, there is no such thing as absolute equality for every group.
We all know that in real world, this is true. But that is not what I am talking about here.
What I mean is, the idea of absolute equality for everyone is an incoherent concept in itself.
Because, absolute equality cannot produce any functioning structure.

As any structure in this material universe by definition requires hierarchy to function. (And a functioning structure is necessary to implement any core principles)

It is no-brainer that, absolute equality and a hierarchy are by definition two opposite concepts.
(Consequently, the idea of absolute equality is self defeating.)

And the Second aspect of this topic has to do with longevity and endurance of any given unified SYSTEM.

When we know absolute equality for everyone is not possible, in this case at some point there has to be prioritisation of someone's right over someone else's right.
In any given scenario at such point someone will feel discriminated against. (There is no other way around it)

When such stage arrises, either you have to discriminate against the majority or the minority and prioritise one's right over the other's.

This process always gradually builds up discontent against the SYSTEM in people who has been 'discriminated against'.

Now if it is the minority who has been 'discriminated against' little bit, the effect of this discontent on the SYSTEM would be lesser and slower than if it was the other way around.
Thus, the SYSTEM likely to remain more functional for longer period of time.

In a nutshell, 'limited discrimination' against minorities is a necessary evil for greater good. Because, (let’s not forget) when SYSTEM becomes dysfunctional it is almost always the non-dominant minority who suffers the most.

Also, one effective way to counterbalance it, is to base the concept of majority on dominant culture and ideology, rather than race and ethnicity. As the later two cannot be negotiated or changed, however, anybody can always culturally adopt any change.

So, the concept of majority based on culture is an inclusive and flexible majority.
Similar to the 'Majority' in Islamic thought)

@Gary Also, I forgot to ask you about you opinion on the last of two point I made in my previous post.

1. Superiority of any given unified social, political and economic SYSTEM lies with its coherent framework and structural processes that enable effective and efficient implementation of SYSTEM'S core ideas and principles.

Not necessarily the ideas And watchwords themselves.



2. Absolute equality not only practically impossible, but also incoherent and self defeating concept in itself.

As structures by definition requires hierarchy to function.

And as people disagree at some point you gotta prioritize one's demand/need over the other's.

And I as explained in details, to ensure longevity and endurance of any given unified SYSTEM, limited of oppression of minority is a necessary evil.

@Ryder
 
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Afif

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I found it few days.
Very interesting content. Surprisingly, I didn't know the extent of it as he mentioned. (Specially in Roman and Greek period.)
@Gary @Ryder
 
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Afif

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@Gary I read it. (All of it)
Interesting, brief, and right on points.

In a nutshell, it is a more developed and sophisticated version of Ibn Khaldun's theory.

However, there are some oversimplification and broad generalization which may not hold true.

While his six stages of rise and fall of any great unified system/Empire are more or less accurate, however, history is not a collection of well organized patterns. There are much more randomness, variables to it.

There are merger, conjunction between systems/empires (through conquest, commerce and mimigrations)
In such scenarios sometimes the whole process slows down, speeds up, or rarely even stops at certain stages, partially recovers and restarts again.


And then There is the problem of 20th and 21th century that doesn't fit in his well organized theory.

Let's agree, WEST is going down.
But very strangely, so is the world with it.

1. A weakening of religion
2. Lose of sexual morality
3. Increase of materialism and love if money.
4. Lose of sense of a duty and service to something greater then our immediate selves.
6. Pop singers and actors/actresses becoming the heros of youth.

All of these are now global phenomenon, yet unlike the West, other civilizations/countries didn't even go through all of those stages of commerce, affluence and intellect in recent time to reach their decadence.
Almost like they are falling before they even got a chance to rise.

Thanks to industrial revolutions, Humanity as whole made incredible advances in science and technology, and Capitalism made sure it reaches every corner of the planet. Consequently, unbounded materialism is now a global problem for human morality.

Today's Globalization, (an unprecedented and unique phenomenon in human history) both in its physical form (ease of travel, commerce and migration) and technological form (internet and social media) has gone both ways.
As much as it increased the influx of foreigners in the first world, similarly it exported first world (social and cultural) issues to other countries. Look at today's youth, their ideals, clothing and their way of doing things.


The reason I chose to study sociology, is to understand it as it is and contribute in solving these problems, even if it is just a tiny bit.


It would be interesting to know how much thoughts you given on how to reverse those phenomenon? What steps should be taken and what processes should be implemented?
 
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Ryder

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@Gary I read it. (All of it)
Interesting, brief, and right on points.

In a nutshell, it is a more developed and sophisticated version of Ibn Khaldun's theory.

However, there are some oversimplification and broad generalization which may not hold true.

While his six stages of rise and fall of any great unified system are more or less accurate, however, history is not a collection of well organized patterns. There are much more randomness, variables to it.

There are merger, conjunction between systems/empires (through conquest, commerce and mimigrations)
In such scenarios sometimes the whole process slows down, speeds up, or rarely even stops at certain stages, partially recovers and restarts again.


And then There is the problem of 20th and 21th century that doesn't fit in his well organized theory.

Let's agree, WEST is going down.
But very strangely, so is the world with it.

1. A weakening of religion
2. Lose of sexual morality
3. Increase of materialism and love if money.
4. Lose of sense of a duty and service to something greater then our immediate selves.
6. Pop singers and actors/actresses becoming the heros of youth.

All of these are now global phenomenon, yet unlike the West, other civilizations/countries didn't even go through all of those stages of commerce, affluence and intellect in recent time.
Almost like they are falling before they even got a chance to rise.

Humanity as whole made such advances in science and technology that, materialism is now a global.

Today's Globalization, (an unprecedented and unique phenomenon in human history) both in its physical form (ease of travel, commerce and migration) and technological form (internet and social media) has gone both ways.
As much as it increased the influx of foreigners in the first world, similarly it exported first world (social and cultural) issues to other countries.



The reason I chose to study sociology, is to understand and contribute in solving those problems, even if it is just a tiny bit.


It would be interesting to know how much thoughts you given on how to reverse those phenomenon? What steps should be taken and what processes should be implemented?

Sexual revolution in the West and its consequences on the world has been a disaster.
 

Afif

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@Nilgiri Any comment?

I didn’t have enough time to read about Bengal famine in depth to reach any solid conclusion about the extent of Churchill's role in it.
However, there is seems to something fishy about this 'uncensored history'.
That guy didn’t even try present enough info to make a full picture of what happened. (For example, historically we know British army burned down a lot of grains under so called denial policy) And then he just oversimplified and downplayed the whole thing.
(I know Douglas Murray from his previous debate talk shows and writings, apparently a clever guy but not a very good one)
 

Gary

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@Gary I read it. (All of it)
Interesting, brief, and right on points.

In a nutshell, it is a more developed and sophisticated version of Ibn Khaldun's theory.

However, there are some oversimplification and broad generalization which may not hold true.

While his six stages of rise and fall of any great unified system/Empire are more or less accurate, however, history is not a collection of well organized patterns. There are much more randomness, variables to it.

There are merger, conjunction between systems/empires (through conquest, commerce and mimigrations)
In such scenarios sometimes the whole process slows down, speeds up, or rarely even stops at certain stages, partially recovers and restarts again.


And then There is the problem of 20th and 21th century that doesn't fit in his well organized theory.

Let's agree, WEST is going down.
But very strangely, so is the world with it.

1. A weakening of religion
2. Lose of sexual morality
3. Increase of materialism and love if money.
4. Lose of sense of a duty and service to something greater then our immediate selves.
6. Pop singers and actors/actresses becoming the heros of youth.

All of these are now global phenomenon, yet unlike the West, other civilizations/countries didn't even go through all of those stages of commerce, affluence and intellect in recent time to reach their decadence.
Almost like they are falling before they even got a chance to rise.

Thanks to industrial revolutions, Humanity as whole made incredible advances in science and technology, and Capitalism made sure it reaches every corner of the planet. Consequently, unbounded materialism is now a global problem for human morality.

Today's Globalization, (an unprecedented and unique phenomenon in human history) both in its physical form (ease of travel, commerce and migration) and technological form (internet and social media) has gone both ways.
As much as it increased the influx of foreigners in the first world, similarly it exported first world (social and cultural) issues to other countries. Look at today's youth, their ideals, clothing and their way of doing things.


The reason I chose to study sociology, is to understand it as it is and contribute in solving these problems, even if it is just a tiny bit.


It would be interesting to know how much thoughts you given on how to reverse those phenomenon? What steps should be taken and what processes should be implemented?

This isn't a reversible phenomenon, it could be contained and slowed, but history moves in one direction all the time.

It is true that unless you're a Western country, many have yet to pass through all 6 stage of an empire, especially the newly emerged countries after the decolonization of the 20th century, because not all countries are destined to be an empire, some are just there to exist and eventually fade without ever reaching the peak of power. Mind to tell you that I'm not talking only about any country, I'm pointing in fact towards civilizations, civilizations are larger sphere than individual countries. What I'm pointing in particular is the Western civilizations and all of its constituent countries (including non-Whites) like Japan. Yes, Japan is a Western country even though it is not geographically located in Europe or the Americas.

Just like the great Islamic civilizations in the past, there's always one particular polity that towers above the rest, in the golden age of Islam, this is the Caliphate of Ibn Al Abbas and its rival Caliphate of Cordoba. In today's all powerful Western civilizations, its the USA. Once the core eventually rot the rest will soon follow.

We have seen a lot of things that precipitated the fall of past empire coming into an accelerated motion today, such as :

  1. The growing importance of money and wealth above all
  2. The rise of women into positions of importance in the state
  3. Loosening of morality and the acceptance of degeneracy (LGBTQ+, nudity, swearing)
  4. Rise of fiat money
  5. Replacement of masculinity with that of feminity, seeing a rise of man singers, man used to be seen as tough and rough, not some melodical individual
The simple answer when humans are confronted to this problem is, what can we do ? At least for me there's not much we can do, historians could gather all knowledge it has about the dear situations of the civilizations of today but rarely those warning are taken into action by the politicians and citizens of their time, in particular the politicians and masses at the age of decadence, which are frequently greedy and ignorant.

I'm willing to say that by the time we reaches the new century (2100), none of today's Western great power like UK, France and Germany will be in the top 6. and By the the time the world reaches 2150, the gravity of civilizations will be borne by Sub-Saharan Africans and Arabs, and not the Arabs like UAE or Saudi (That is if they still exist by the that time), rather its the conflict ridden Arabs as well a sub saharan African states of turmoil of today's time that I predict would come to prominence.

16n2africa.jpg

reuters-10-15-12-FSA.jpg


This people has all the characteristics of the men of the age of pioneers:

  1. They're poor and hungry
  2. They're dumb (in an academic sense) but brilliant in survival and out of the book solutions
  3. They are a patriarchial society
  4. They're offensive minded
  5. They are warlike and has a long history of killings
At some point in time they will have their moment of outburst, while the Western civilizations that somewhat control their country/continent from behind will eventually retreat, back into their continent with an increasingly defensive minded, isolationist population.

Please note that jihadism and militancy in Africa and the Middle East never really fade away, rather it is in containing mode by the Western powers, made possible by their superiority in technology, know how on combat and their vast expeditionary capabilities, If at one point in time if political turmoil in the continent erupt, or people are increasingly isolationist, it could result in the pulling out of this "barriers' and this militants is all ripe to take over, we have seen for example what the 2011 drawdown of American troops from Iraq resulted in the sudden explosion of ISIS into prominence, nearly capturing Baghdad. We have also seen how French pullout from Mali resulted in AQIM sudden re-emergence just a year after France pulls out.

Overtime this people in the particular area will be more warlike, they're toughened by war, their society has only one job : survival, they don't have the non-sense of feminism, LGBTQ etc because they don't have much option rather than surviving and fight another day. This is the characteristics of the Romans in the early republic, the Arabs in their early consolidation, the Spaniards when they're in the mountains of Northern Spain etc.
 

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