TR Economy & Updates

[dBSPL]

The budget cost of the FX-Protected Deposit in 2022 was 92.5 billion TL.

3.12% of total budget expenditures.

Turkey budget deficit/GDP ratio; -0.90

The 4th best budget in the top 20 economies in the world.

The amount of KKM was 1.42 trillion TL in 2022.
The cost is 92.5 billion TL.
In other words, the cost of 100 TL in KKM was 6.5 TL.

Currently, the size of deposits is 2.53 trillion TL.
The cost is 93.5 billion TL.
The cost of 100 TL in the KKM decreased to 4 TL.

Currently, only 13 per cent of tax revenues go to interest expenditures. In 2001, this ratio was over 100 per cent.

Source; BRSA, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660313756830777344

Turkiye received $13.0 billion in foreign direct investment last year.

In the last 20 years, a total of $253.2 billion in foreign direct investment came to Turkiye.

An average of $12.7 billion investment comes in every year.

Average FDI/GDP for the last 20 years : 1,71

Between 1980 and 2002, a total of $15 billion came in.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660554288312057861

Foreign currency accounts decreased by 35 per cent in 1.5 years.

Since the beginning of the year, there has been a $63 billion inflow of money into the banking system.

Total deposits at the beginning of the year USD 474 billion
5 May 23 total deposits $536 billion

2021 foreign currency/total deposits had reached 66
On 5 May 23, the share of foreign currency in total deposits fell to 40%.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657297323901296640

 

[Heartbang]

Economic stability which is needed to convince investors

Well, that was a very specific answer (!)

 

[YeşilVatan]

Well, that was a very specific answer (!)

Here's your answer then:

Macro stability can be summed up as the market being predictable, safe and suited for economic growth. can be achieved by an independent and professional central bank, trustworthy statistics, a government that is not erratic with its interventions towards the market, a transparent and realist economic plan for short, medium and long term, strong institutions who don't bend to the words of one man etc. etc. These things provide macro stability. Barring our problems with energy imports and nepotism, this is the single largest structural problem we have in our country.

 

[Heartbang]

Here's your answer then:

Macro stability can be summed up as the market being predictable, safe and suited for economic growth. can be achieved by an independent and professional central bank, trustworthy statistics, a government that is not erratic with its interventions towards the market, a transparent and realist economic plan for short, medium and long term, strong institutions who don't bend to the words of one man etc. etc. These things provide macro stability. Barring our problems with energy imports and nepotism, this is the single largest structural problem we have in our country.

Gotchu loud and clear. Thank you so much.

 

[dBSPL]

Citibank's report on "Turkish supermarket companies". Summary: "They pass on product price increases directly to consumers and are not affected by inflation. Operating profits have increased 150% in dollar terms since 2018."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1660945679198437378

Isn't it interesting that since 2018, supermarkets have increased their profitability by 150% in dollar terms, while they have been dealing within coordination and systematic creation of market monopoly, stockpiling and manipulation of basic food prices? Chain supermarkets operating in Turkiye are probably the ones that have increased their profitability the most on a sectoral basis in whole world.

 

[Zafer]

Central Bank gold reserves hit 670 ton mark. 128 tons gathered in the first 5 months of 2023.

Merkez Bankası'nın kasasındaki altın miktarı açıklandı

Merkez Bankası, 2023 yılının ilk 5 ayında 128 ton altın aldı. Böylece, 2022’de 542 ton olan altın rezervi 670 tona çıktı. Merkez Bankası’nın...

ekonomi.haber7.com

 

[fushkee]

Our people do deserve the best...

 

[demir283]

interesting perspective ..

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661700690475974663

Reserves look to be getting worse than before the IMF intervened in 2001 based on the sharp decline. Erdogan used to boast about central bank reserves in the 2000s while demonizing the IMF.

 

[TheInsider]

Depositors can't withdraw FX from most Turkish banks. Things are not looking good.

 

[what]

Erdogan says Gulf states sent cash in relief for Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Gulf states recently sent funding to Turkey, briefly helping relieve the central bank and markets, and he intends to meet and thank their leaders after Sunday's runoff presidential election.

www.reuters.com

 

[Nilgiri]

Erdogan says Gulf states sent cash in relief for Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Gulf states recently sent funding to Turkey, briefly helping relieve the central bank and markets, and he intends to meet and thank their leaders after Sunday's runoff presidential election.

www.reuters.com

Called it earlier:

I don't think a default is going to happen, though Turkiye will come under further economic strain for sure.

The largest foreign policy activity concerning this will likely be Turkish administration approaching more gulf countries for capital account funding by either SAFE (State administration of Foreign Exchange) deposits and/or currency swaps.

It is unlikely this will occur with any others (West, China, East Asia) given current geopolitical and economic climate (a long topic to get into)

Gulf countries on the other hand have ample reason to improve relations with Turkiye and/or extract more concessions and political capital (from say Erdogan admin) by doing so.

Their 5 largest sovereign wealth funds :

ADIA (UAE) ~ 700 billion USD
KIA (Kuwait) ~ 700 billion USD
PIF (KSA) ~ 580 billion USD
QIA (Qatar) ~ 450 billion USD
ICD (UAE) ~ 300 billion USD

Its unclear what state of leveraging these are all at with their own domestic and other commitments though....but just to give an idea of what I feel Turkiye will approach (given its now poor international credit rating) in greater capacity now past what it has dabbled so far with sukuk bonds and some currency swaps mostly with these same countries.

The drop in Turkish forex is starting to look very concerning (given its trade, investment and GDP denominators):

Turkey Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign Exchange Reserves in Turkey increased to 87030 USD Million in October 3 from 86700 USD Million in the previous week. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...

tradingeconomics.com

Looking at bare minimum ratios that other developing countries under financial stress have had recently or in the past..... TR will want to stabilise at least above 50 billion given its imports are ~300 billion a year and more importantly with the CAD trend where it is:

Turkey Current Account Balance, 1992 – 2025 | CEIC Data

Turkey Current Account recorded a deficit of 3.8 USD bn in Jan 2025, compared with a deficit of 4.6 USD bn in the previous month.

www.ceicdata.com

i.e it will need about 50 - 100 billion injection (depending on current account performance this year compared to 2022) on capital side this year to handle both this and the capital account debt repayments given what its burning through on both current account side and domestic fiscal side.

This is a malady that has been allowed to get to this stage...by reasons long discussed in this thread.

IMF and Erdogan admin will find zero common ground....as the latter will simply not reverse the low interest rate policy that in large part worsened this deep mess to begin with.

So there is no chance of IMF being involved in foreseeable future. The meeting ground is burned and salted already basically.

I mention the gulf countries because thats where Turkiye has mostly been able to sell its sukuk bonds (well past its regular bonds) and arrange currency swaps to essentially buy time till this election being done now.

It was not small amount of money, some 10's of billions of dollars so far.... I'd have to look into it for exact amount, but the matter stands that they are the likeliest option for continued funding to keep ship afloat.

Even on this forum, lot of members miss the woods for the trees by focusing on smaller sectors of their particular interest rather than learn about the larger economy (and its deep systemic problems) and call out those issues fairly to powers that be.

Overall a lot (cost and impact wise) depends on what specifics play out post election:

Turkish default protection costs soar as Erdoğan leads presidential vote

Cost of credit default swaps records biggest rise in two years, while bonds sell off

www.ft.com

 

[Crush716]

Turkiye moved up to #5 spot on the Global Slavery Index.. yea everything is kosher though

https://cdn.walkfree.org/content/uploads/2023/05/23164028/table-prev-top.svg

 

[Anastasius]

Erdogan says Gulf states sent cash in relief for Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Gulf states recently sent funding to Turkey, briefly helping relieve the central bank and markets, and he intends to meet and thank their leaders after Sunday's runoff presidential election.

www.reuters.com

This guy is going to put Turkey in massive debt to the Gulf states to avoid doing the obvious to fix the economy.

 

[Zafer]

is going to put Turkey in massive debt to the Gulf states to avoid doing the obvious to fix the economy.

Get loans from the IMF or London loan sharks you mean?

 

[Bozan]

Get loans from the IMF or London loan sharks you mean?

IMF fixed it last time

 

[Zafer]

IMF fixed it last time

We don't need any fixing.

It is unbelievable some asks to borrow from IMF, it is next to treason for Türkiye.

 

[I_Love_F16]

We don't need any fixing.

It is unbelievable some asks to borrow from IMF, it is next to treason for Türkiye.

Yeah let’s borrow from the Arabs instead, lol.

 

[Zafer]

Yeah let’s borrow from the Arabs instead, lol.

Brilliant idea let's get money from those who will not boss us around.

 

[dBSPL]

Countdown to Default for the US treasury: