TR Economy & Updates

[B_A]

Should we call them advisors? They seem to be in charge of everything.

Like any leader, even if you or I run this country, we can find such advisors.

Yes actually we can.Maybe better than them.Erdogan is not a professional expert.

But we didn’t have the Influence /Charismatic of him.

If We become leader tomorrow and we send a right order ,the people don’t obey us.just like later sultans .

Erdogan send a stupid order a lot of people obey him .

Davutoglu became PM ,tried to reduce the power of erdogan and easily defeated.

I even can’t persuade my crush to date with me.

 

[Crush716]

Such an embarrassment

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667132393050853378

1 Papua New Guinean Kina is equal to 6.61 Turkish Lira.

 

[UkroTurk]

 

[GoatsMilk]

View attachment 58190

That really hits home how absolutely pathetic AK party has been economically for Turkiye. A country fighting a full blown war against Russia, where 1/10th is currently occupied, with all her cities coming under relentless Russian bombing has a more stable currency then Turkiye.

Honestly when i look at Turkiye its like a country that has gone absolutely mad. Political Islam has rotted the ability of half the nation to be reasonable. We have descended into a nation of "cults" and "personalities" instead of "results" and "reason".

 

[I_Love_F16]

Such an embarrassment

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667132393050853378

1 Papua New Guinean Kina is equal to 6.61 Turkish Lira.

How dare you … Erdogan can’t be wrong, he knows everything and he is an economist. With him Turkiye economy is very strong, in 5 years we will surpass all Europe. (Sarcasm off)

 

[guest12]

 

[Lool]

Does anyone know whether Simsek will be able to save the lira or not? And whether the rumors regarding the new lira value to be set at 29? And what is the future plan initiated by the govt or the finance ministry or whoever is in charge of the current fiasco?

 

[moz68k]

In my opinion, they let the Lira crash on purpose with the lower than expected interest rate hike to stimulate tourism and give the banks some breathing space during the transition. The raising of the minimum wage and the relaxing of FX interventions is also indicative of this. I'd expect a much greater hike at the end of August. If Erdo doesn't let that happen due to the upcoming local elections, the little remaining trust and hope for orthodoxy of this cabinet will be completely eroded. No one will invest and the Lira will collapse. We live in this neoliberal dystopia called the "free" market and no amount of ideology or micromanaging can save you from it. The Soviets tried and ultimately failed. Turkey alone cannot change the world's economic system.

Does anyone know whether Simsek will be able to save the lira or not? And whether the rumors regarding the new lira value to be set at 29? And what is the future plan initiated by the govt or the finance ministry or whoever is in charge of the current fiasco?

 

[TheInsider]

The plan is to close FX-protected bank accounts. The interest rate increase will continue until it comes close to the inflation rate. According to their plan inflation will continue to decrease (due to base effect, interest rate increase etc) and interest rates will continue to increase and they will meet somewhere like %30. When those two matches things will cool down. Of course, the dollar will keep gaining value as the economy admin is gently removing the lid on the dollar. Short to medium-term 28-29 medium to long-term 30-32 are likely spots. When things cool down Şimşek will announce the closure of FX-protected accounts redirect creditors to a one-time-only special interest account with a slightly higher interest than normal interest accounts.

Meanwhile, Şimşek is running studies to sell Turkish Airlines, Botaş, and Turk Telekom(again) if shit hits the fan.

 

[Lool]

The plan is to close FX-protected bank accounts. The interest rate increase will continue until it comes close to the inflation rate. According to their plan inflation will continue to decrease (due to base effect, interest rate increase etc) and interest rates will continue to increase and they will meet somewhere like %30. When those two matches things will cool down. Of course, the dollar will keep gaining value as the economy admin is gently removing the lid on the dollar. Short to medium-term 28-29 medium to long-term 30-32 are likely spots. When things cool down Şimşek will announce the closure of FX-protected accounts redirect creditors to a one-time-only special interest account with a slightly higher interest than normal interest accounts.

Meanwhile, Şimşek is running studies to sell Turkish Airlines, Botaş, and Turk Telekom(again) if shit hits the fan.

And is this plan good or Not?
Like, is it the right way to go or not since I read many posts on how it would be better to raise the interest rate massively the first time and keep it at around 40% for a while while the currency improves in value against the dollar

 

[TheInsider]

And is this plan good or Not?
Like, is it the right way to go or not since I read many posts on how it would be better to raise the interest rate massively the first time and keep it at around 40% for a while while the currency improves in value against the dollar

It won't happen overnight. He needs at least a year to consider shutting down FX-protected accounts. IMHO this is the best plan and best way to return orthodox policies, rein in inflation, and get rid of FX-protected bank accounts. It won't come cheap as the economy will stagnate. Expect worse growth rates and higher unemployment but this loss has to be taken now or we will literally go bankrupt. In the future, as the inflation rate decreases interest rates will also decrease. We should have never experimented with unorthodox policies. We should have paid a lower price earlier, we will pay a bigger price due to an unorthodox policy experiment.

 

[B_A]

It won't happen overnight. He needs at least a year to consider shutting down FX-protected accounts. IMHO this is the best plan and best way to return orthodox policies, rein in inflation, and get rid of FX-protected bank accounts. It won't come cheap as the economy will stagnate. Expect worse growth rates and higher unemployment but this loss has to be taken now or we will literally go bankrupt. In the future, as the inflation rate decreases interest rates will also decrease. We should have never experimented with unorthodox policies. We should have paid a lower price earlier, we will pay a bigger price due to an unorthodox policy experiment.

Unless we boost our export and reduce our import...

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673699654276460547

USD reserve increased by 8,5 billion in one week

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673271825642450944

They're going to sell the country to gulf/Chinese money before allowing Sweden into NATO in my opinion

 

[Lool]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673699654276460547

USD reserve increased by 8,5 billion in one week

Hopefully it will increase even more with the beginning of the holiday season, Eid Al-Adha and the influx of tourism during the summer

Simsek seems to be fully committed to his orthodox policy and it seems that some are beginning to bear fruit. Hopefully, his other policies will follow suit

 

[moz68k]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673271825642450944

They're going to sell the country to gulf/Chinese money before allowing Sweden into NATO in my opinion

Yeah, as if anyone else is above selling out to the Emirates or China.

GlobalFoundries, an American company, is the world's fourth largest semiconductor fab and is owned by the Emirati Sovereign Wealth fund.

Imagination Technologies (IP holder of basically all mobile GPUs and now even in high performance Apple Silicon desktop processors) is a British company literally owned by the Chinese government.

Money is money. They have a lot of it and it's important we get slice of the pie, seeing as we're in serious need of it.

In other news, the Lira has stabilized (for now) and TCMB reserves are up.

 

[Bozan]

Yeah, as if anyone else is above selling out to the Emirates or China.

GlobalFoundries, an American company, is the world's fourth largest semiconductor fab and is owned by the Emirati Sovereign Wealth fund.

Imagination Technologies (IP holder of basically all mobile GPUs and now even in high performance Apple Silicon desktop processors) is a British company literally owned by the Chinese government.

Money is money. They have a lot of it and it's important we get slice of the pie, seeing as we're in serious need of it.

In other news, the Lira has stabilized (for now) and TCMB reserves are up.

There's a difference between developed countries and developing countries when it comes to such sales.

In developing countries it leads to loss in sovereignty and control of strategic industries in addition to exploitation. America and Britain can enforce terms favourable to them in the case of a sale. Erdogan will not.

 

[moz68k]

There's a difference between developed countries and developing countries when it comes to such sales.

In developing countries it leads to loss in sovereignty and control of strategic industries in addition to exploitation. America and Britain can enforce terms favourable to them in the case of a sale. Erdogan will not.

I will agree with your point wrt loss of sovereignty and control of strategic industries in developing nations. However, I have to strongly disagree with your statement on whether the US or the UK can really enforce favorable terms when their IPs are swept away by two countries that have no regard for such matters. Especially when such countries already hold such power (natural resources, manufacturing, manpower, etc.) over them.

Turkey should never forfeit strategic assets, on that we agree, however it would be irresponsible to scoff at investments from non-western nations in an increasingly multipolar world.

 

[Chocopie]

Yeah, as if anyone else is above selling out to the Emirates or China.

GlobalFoundries, an American company, is the world's fourth largest semiconductor fab and is owned by the Emirati Sovereign Wealth fund.

GlobalFoundries lost the semicon tech race years ago. Many inhouse development projects failed and they ended up buying licenses. Their „latest“ node process technology (22 nm, 14 nm, 12 nm) is licensed from other major players. TSMC and Samsung are both technology leaders with 3 nm and a multitude of sales compared to GF’s revenues.

Wiki:
GlobalFoundries' 22 nm FD-SOI process is second-sourced from STMicroelectronics.
GlobalFoundries' 14 nm 14LPP FinFET process is second-sourced from Samsung Electronics. GlobalFoundries' 12 nm FinFET nodes are based on Samsung's 14 nm 14LPP process.

Besides all this, IP owned by US and UK companies are protected with a fine web of national and international legal frameworks from exploitation via foreign investors. They ain‘t that dumb to sell out core trade secrets blindly.

 

[moz68k]

I never said anything about GF being any good, just that their Chairman is an Emirati.

Besides all this, IP owned by US and UK companies are protected with a fine web of national and international legal frameworks from exploitation via foreign investors. They ain‘t that dumb to sell out core trade secrets blindly.

I don't agree at all. If push comes to shove and the world really does break in two, those international and legal frameworks won't mean a thing. SMIC and Moore Threads may be behind the curve, but they are already sufficient for defence. Consumer tech is another thing, but I was thinking about defence.

As for the intelligence of business executives and governments, I leave that judgment up to you.