China's economy recovers very well and became the world's only major economy experienced positive growth in 2020 while yours crashes, don't know who really should cry.
Contain China? better talk to the Wall street bankers..the strategy to contain China will need a multilateral approach. now that China is a bipartisan issues in both republicans and democrats, the US needs to reach out for partners abroad, first the most important is the EU. The US needs a solid and well coordinated China strategy with it's allies in Europe. the US needs to convince the Europeans if they don't stand up now, than one day they could ended up coerced like Australia. the battle for influence for Germany in particular should be won, as they are the natural leader of EU due to their economic clout.
next should be ASEAN, there's no where else that China's influence felt more strongly than in ASEAN, an scenario where ASEAN is pulled out from China's orbit will be a huge geopolitical victory for the US. and it could very well start with things like investment.
China just execute a premature approach of foreign relations, that in my opinion only serve them a title of becoming a world pariah, let's start with Covid-19, it's unsophisticated wolf warrior style diplomacy, clashes with India, trade wars with Australia etc.
China's aggressive foreign policy not only awaken the Americans (prematurely) on the scale of China military threat, also pushes for major arms proliferation in the Indo-Pacific region, from Japan, India, Australia, Taiwan, Indonesia and most importantly the revitalization of the QUAD. For an aspiring world superpower it's hard to see how this superpower will expand beyond it's borders and near seas while being encircled by major militaries with varying loyalties to it's nemesis on almost all side.
The US still had the geopolitical advantage, but it will be decided in this decade if the US will hold to their comparative advantage. they should have not waste any time. China has many major errors in it's rushed approach to be equal to the states, if exploited well could well be used against them in the future.
the US should re-engage in world institutions, build trust in Europe as well as ASEAN and above all re-join TTP (or whatever it has incarnated to). China rise is not without it's headwinds, starting from this decade China will experience the largest population contraction in human history, some rough estimate has put that by the end of this century China population will be only half the current population. and it's going to be old population, which will hamper their attempt to overtake the US economy.
China Got Its Economy Growing Again, but a Shortfall in Babies Will Be Harder to Fix
Some economists say a shrinking workforce threatens China’s chances of overtaking the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.www.wsj.com
and this is where it gets quite scary, especially for countries surrounding China, like mine. historically wars and conflicts are lit by ascending powers that view itself running out of time, think about Germany before WW1 or Japan in before WW2. China might be on the ascent, but the fuel to that ascent had largely diminished by now, namely an aging population, increasing wage, diminishing competitiveness.
For countries in the receiving ends of China's bullying, they should learn to play the long games.
asia.nikkei.com
theprint.in
we're talking about long term projection, good luck trying to overtake the US with plunging demographic and enemies on all sides.Contain China? better talk to the Wall street bankers..
Wall Street banks shrug off decoupling to embrace China
Goldman and JPMorgan Chase prepare for greater market access
With $163 billion, China overtakes US as largest FDI recipient in 2020 — UN trade agency
Europe fared worse, with flows down by two-thirds to a negative $4 billion. In the UK, foreign direct investment fell to zero, and declines were also recorded in other major countries.
How long? 10 years or 100 years? China is still the most populous country in the world and easily reverse the curve by doing away with birth restriction policies. The west is always China's enemy cause China is hell bent to finish their centuries old global domination. Other countries are not China's enemies, China has very good relationship with most none western countries in the world.
I just hope reversing the current demographic plunge is just as easy as declaring it.
Population size is never a concern for China, we have a traditon to have big families the the culture is family oriented, lifting the restriction and the population will shoot up soon.
off course it's a concern, that's why your government had been lifting up birth restriction lately . you might want to read about fertility trap, once you've got yourself into it's almost impossible to reverse.
www.chinadaily.com.cn
Wrong information, doing away with one child policy doesn't man lifting up birth restriction all together. you still can't have more than two children, the restriction is still on.
No one can stop what you think, but reality is reality, China doesn't have many islands there, so why should we worry. Let Vietnam worry first.
Viet nam also didn't ask for China's permission for occupying most islands in SCS. Every country has their claims, but not all claims are reality on the ground.it doesn't matter who owns who in the SCS, the only country that comes to mind is China. the act of passing in waters claimed by the PRC without consulting the PRC must've annoyed Beijing so much, but Beijing understand that it can't do nothing but sit and watch.
French military has no place in the South China Sea
French Defense Minister Florence Parly disclosed earlier this month that one of her country's nuclear submarines had recently conducted a patrol through the South China Sea. This admission would have been unsurprising for China since its military would be aware of the provocative presence of the...
Ok, but you do realize that the current US+allies buildup in the Pacific is not geared towards Vietnam right??
The west is always the enemy, no surprise here at all, but they are declining fast and EU just pays lip service to US. No Eurpean navy dares to challenge China alone without US, and China is now the world biggest shipbuilder outbuilding everyone including US, so US itself is highly unlikely to directly confront Chinese navy, it'll be more so in the future.
thehill.com
defencehub.live
