Nothing is going to happen before the election next year. It's US policy to not process any major military-related deals before important elections in the recipient country has been successfully passed.
In another words: don't be too excited about the recent news. We'll receive the last batch of F16s probably when they're actually technologically obsolete...
All energy, funds, time and dedication should be channeled towards TFX. It's our only real alternative even if we can't export it immediately (which I don't believe).
To me, TFX is first and foremost a project to gain significant technological advancements. The R&D output of the TFX project will influence every single project of ours in the long term. A giant in the making. Plus, it will radically alter our image globally.
Ironically the only leverage we have now for getting american fighter jets is either to buy from someone else, or to become more invested in the TFX. The americans geopolitical ambition in the region is to create a PKKistan, that means they will use every instrument of influence against Turkey and a primary one is weapon sales. This doesn't even look into the wider geopolitical issues where they play the same game as Russia taking the opposite side to us as seen with greece or armenia.
There's an English saying: one bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
F16 are combat proven, TF-X is still in development. It's better to have the F16 and not need them, instead of needing them urgently because of unexpected delays in the development of TF-X and then beeing in even deeper trouble because the neighbouring countries are now flying F35.
Plan for the worst, not for the best.
Planning for the worst is to plan that americans don't even sell Turkey F16's, expecting F16's is planning for the best outcome. If i'm honest the most likely outcome is they dont sell us F16's until it holds no geopolitical significance for us. They are doing everything to pressure us from relenting on our regional rights from the sea of islands, east med and syria/iraq. They are going to make everything difficult for us, unless we have instruments of influence.
By playing the Syria game so badly we basically opened the door for the americans to oppose us much harder then before the war. Before the war they needed to be nicer to us because they needed us to help them in their regional plots, now those plots are coming to fruition, its now our time to come under direct pressure since we were always a part of their plot, just further down the plan.
And always keep in mind that weapons and geopolitical interests go hand in hand. By dealing with Britain over the TFX you are actually indirectly dealing with the USA. They are both part of the five eyes intelligence network and defacto operate as the inner ruling ring within NATO itself. We should also be planning for the eventual betrayal of Britain on the TFX.
We are going to face a difficult couple of decades, the next 20 years are going to be a grind and new traps and new problems will present themselves. These same people that plot against us in the region, must absolutely hate seeing us develop our military industry domestically. Anticipate many dirty games to come over such things.
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