TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698771675314086219

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1790570225890378109

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791048790910095361

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424037019936829444

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785716097695502506

There's some tom Clancy shit going on, with added mercenaries

 

[BalkanTurk90]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698771675314086219

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1790570225890378109

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791048790910095361

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424037019936829444

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785716097695502506

There's some tom Clancy shit going on, with added mercenaries

Why they didnt let they bomb them , As one that comes from Communism i am 100% sure that communism is worse than isis

 

[Nilgiri]

The reason why Nation state experiment failed in a lot of Muslim countries because they came from Empire or Kingdom rule then came colonialism.

Empires have always been diverse and you have numerous nations living in 1 empire. Lets narrow it down to ethnic groups, tribes and clans.

Lots of Islamic Empires of Turkic, Arab, African, Persian, Amazigh and other origins like Indian.

Why im including Indian because Muslim Empires that ruled India were not just Turkic, Afghan or Persian based they also included Indian elements hence why Baburs descendants overtime largely became Indian rather than Turkic.

Arabs in their case they usually tell themselves about the Arab caliphates that ruled usually see them as the ones to emulate.

Arabs and Turks may share the same religion also share some cultural aspects due to them mingling with each other for centuries.

Arabs will never see themselves apart of the Ottoman and Seljuk legacies largely due to them being Turkic.

To build a nation state you need to use history as a continutation. There hasnt been a Arab Empire or a kingdom in the Middle East for centuries. Im not including Oman and Morocco since they were largely their own for centuries. Oman has always been a different Arab country due to Ibadi Islam.

Turkiye has the Ottomans and Seljuks while Russia has the Soviets and the Tsars. China has Qing and the Ming.

Last Arab Empire or Caliphate was the Abbassids which collapsed in 1258. Middle East largely spent most of its time under foreign rule.

Its a bit of a offtopic. I do believe nation states are born out of sense of continuity to the old.

I understand where you are coming from, but IMO there is only so much to harness from empires and civilisations etc....and there can be good and bad regarding such as there are both objective and subjective things harnessed from it by the individual.

That is why statist operating principles need to be geared to being minimalist and focused as possible to that which is objective (within the nation)...i.e physical.

Law and order, security of the nation, administration, national infrastructure, long term merit institutions and so on and addressing any severe instances of market failure collectively by way of the state (in a market infancy period etc).

Things like religion, theology et al. are vast domains within the even larger domain of metaphysics.

The core self evident truths (preceding the nationstate formation) stemming from these can be harnessed and applied (regd the social contract and law etc which I mentioned earlier) without all the assorted baggage in the metaphysical alleyways (which are interesting to get into within bounds, but should not be wielded in the state) that will only impose costs.

A metaphysical+maximalist oriented state will do damage to the nation and start grievous erosions, conflicts (to add to any ongoing ones) and collapses....as it posits perfectionist utopia and make enemies among its own body quickly by power for power sake elitist capture and so on.

Marxism copies and pastes the pyramid (it perceives) and inverts it to an extreme materialist domain. It becomes its own religion effectively from its reactionary metaphysics.

The forces regarding this will happen somewhat inevitably over time in a relatively minimalist+focused state....so there is even less reason to make this easy from the get go.

Things can be compared and contrasted for example between the Ottoman empire ---- > nationstates occupying its former realm today and the same for say Qajar Iran.

The lack of proper balanced minimalist reset from Ataturk's revolution and republic.... shows up drastically now in modern day Iran's case.

The moulding of Ataturk in his life story.....one example is his basic realisation the metaphysics---statist danger.

He saw the strife, the fassad of co-religionists in the breakup of the Ottoman empire. That the raw metaphysical size of these things will always be far larger in number outside the Turkish people than inside it....the sheer population differential. This would be the danger if a quick circuit of it is given in the republic to be formed. Hence the minimalist approach with secularism instead. The resistance against over-secularisation (also a problem like I describe with the extreme form of it in say Marxism).... would be trusted to the people and communities and institutions formed in cohesion with the state's law and order and principles....that they hold what is best about their culture within them for the long run as well.

Iran's theocracy in comparison is heavily disjointed from its own population, does not work for their interests well....and instead meshes far more seamlessly with the larger region's sociological clay on offer. Hence proxy export model (by the state)....at long term cost to its nation.

The shah was essentially just as insular and bad regarding this....there was basically no commitment to a longer term process generated within Iran like Turkiye did.....so the state does tenuous ad hoc things relative to the nation. This nationstate is in the end in a bunch of trouble long term till the next revolution hits it, then have to see how the state shapes up then and the accounting of the costs.

In China this can be seen in quite short span of time too in the 20th century. The attempted principled crafting in Ataturk kind of fashion by Sun Yat Sen....but insufficient time and space for it to set in (like Ataturk was able to harness with the intelligentsia and context he had)....correlated to the vastness and context of China.

The quick usurpation (for a number of reasons) by his successor, the civil war, the foreign invader war interjecting during it as well.... and then rise of a despot who went for the maximalist approach with Marxist statism and the "constant internal war" (and communism export to world etc) with the nation to be slaved to this first and foremost, no matter the cost. The better balance and operating conditions (ability of some virtuous cycles to nest within larger non-virtuous one) only really came to bear after his death for a reason....but there is still cult image legacy and so on that harnesses the metaphysics and its ego and so on.

Really the topic is a vast one. Turkiye was very lucky to have Ataturk around at that time it did.

 

[Iskander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791075119911014700

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1790887927519514713

What is Aliyev doing with Putin ? Looks like an attempt to sabotage Georgia from starting the road to joining EU

“External forces are trying to organize a coup in Georgia,” said the mayor of Tbilisi and the secretary general of the ruling party.

Yesterday, emissaries represented by the foreign ministers of four European Union countries joined the protesters in Tbilisi. The ministers addressed the crowd, urging them to take action against the legitimate government. Protesters are demanding the repeal of the “foreign influence law” recently passed by the Georgian parliament.
In Europe they swear by all the gods that the EU does not interfere in the internal affairs of other states.
I wonder what these European ministers are doing in Tbilisi? What are they persistently calling Georgians to do?
Towards Christian humility?
Or against the Parliament of Georgia!

 

[Bozan]

“External forces are trying to organize a coup in Georgia,” said the mayor of Tbilisi and the secretary general of the ruling party.

Yesterday, emissaries represented by the foreign ministers of four European Union countries joined the protesters in Tbilisi. The ministers addressed the crowd, urging them to take action against the legitimate government. Protesters are demanding the repeal of the “foreign influence law” recently passed by the Georgian parliament.
In Europe they swear by all the gods that the EU does not interfere in the internal affairs of other states.
I wonder what these European ministers are doing in Tbilisi? What are they persistently calling Georgians to do?
Towards Christian humility?
Or against the Parliament of Georgia!

The Georgian prime minister said this:

On Monday, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze warned that if authorities backed down at the bill's third reading, Georgia would lose sovereignty and "easily share the fate of Ukraine", without detailing what he meant.

Which seems like a threat of Russian invasion if they don't continue to normalize with Russia.

Regarding the EU:

“The Georgian people want a European future for their country. It should stay the course on the road to Europe,” she said last month. Georgia was made an official EU candidate country in December 2023. Opinion polls regularly put support for both EU and NATO membership at above 70 per cent.

Joseph Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, and Olivér Várhelyi, its commissioner for EU enlargement, have jointly urged authorities to withdraw the bill, which if adopted, they said would “negatively impact” Georgia’s EU candidacy.

There are too many protestors this year and in previous years for it to be funded or organized by foreign powers, it's an organic movement in my opinion

 

[Iskander]

The Georgian prime minister said this:



Which seems like a threat of Russian invasion if they don't continue to normalize with Russia.

Regarding the EU:


There are too many protestors this year and in previous years for it to be funded or organized by foreign powers, it's an organic movement in my opinion

The EU Peace Fund acquires weapons for Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia. Wonderful! Defending the victim of an aggressor is a noble cause.
The EU, within the framework of the same “Peace Fund”, decided to “protect” Armenia! That is, he arms her.
This is no longer a peace fund, but a war fund! Against whom is Europe, led by France, arming Armenia?
30 years ago, Armenia attacked Azerbaijan, occupied our lands, expelled hundreds of thousands of our citizens and created a second Armenian state here. Where was “peace-loving” Europe then?! Why didn’t “noble” Europe protect us?
Moreover, Europe imposed sanctions on us - a victim of aggression! She forbade everyone from selling weapons to us! These sanctions are still in effect today.
Do you know what the reason is? The only reason is that Azerbaijan is a Muslim country and Armenia is a Christian country. There are no other reasons.
Russia occupied the territories of Georgia 15 years ago. Why didn’t Europe help Georgia then? Moreover, the International Court of Justice, which is located in Europe and is under its control, accused Georgia of starting the war.
We cannot calmly watch as the West arms Armenia through Georgia. Because very soon the revanchists of Armenia will attack us with these weapons. They don't even hide their intentions. We will not allow our country to be turned into a battlefield between the warring West and Russia.
We just expelled Russian troops from here!
Why should we allow another goat into the garden just because he is a Western goat?

 

[Bozan]

The EU Peace Fund acquires weapons for Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia. Wonderful! Defending the victim of an aggressor is a noble cause.
The EU, within the framework of the same “Peace Fund”, decided to “protect” Armenia! That is, he arms her.
This is no longer a peace fund, but a war fund! Against whom is Europe, led by France, arming Armenia?
30 years ago, Armenia attacked Azerbaijan, occupied our lands, expelled hundreds of thousands of our citizens and created a second Armenian state here. Where was “peace-loving” Europe then?! Why didn’t “noble” Europe protect us?
Moreover, Europe imposed sanctions on us - a victim of aggression! She forbade everyone from selling weapons to us! These sanctions are still in effect today.
Do you know what the reason is? The only reason is that Azerbaijan is a Muslim country and Armenia is a Christian country. There are no other reasons.
Russia occupied the territories of Georgia 15 years ago. Why didn’t Europe help Georgia then? Moreover, the International Court of Justice, which is located in Europe and is under its control, accused Georgia of starting the war.
We cannot calmly watch as the West arms Armenia through Georgia. Because very soon the revanchists of Armenia will attack us with these weapons. They don't even hide their intentions. We will not allow our country to be turned into a battlefield between the warring West and Russia.
We just expelled Russian troops from here!
Why should we allow another goat into the garden just because he is a Western goat?

Good point

 

[Barry]

forum needs a response for posts like Iskander's.

 

[Ryder]

Arms embargo also led to the Bosniaks copping a genocide.

Arms embargo has also destroyed Somalia and brought it to heel against Al Shabab terrorists. Ethiopia invaded Somalia with the Western World's backing the destabilisation led to the rise of Al Shabab terrorists.

Arms embargo enables massacres and genocide.

Let me remind everybody that Dudayev got assasinated by the Russians the Americans got his coordinates and gave it to the Russians where they killed him.

Lets not forget with the Ocalan debacle. Giving Ocalan the Terrorist passports is like giving Osama Bin Laden passports.

So many lessons to learn. I hope Turkiye breaks this so called rules based order.

 

[Afif]

Arms embargo also led to the Bosniaks copping a genocide.

Arms embargo has also destroyed Somalia and brought it to heel against Al Shabab terrorists. Ethiopia invaded Somalia with the Western World's backing the destabilisation led to the rise of Al Shabab terrorists.

Arms embargo enables massacres and genocide.

Let me remind everybody that Dudayev got assasinated by the Russians the Americans got his coordinates and gave it to the Russians where they killed him.

Lets not forget with the Ocalan debacle. Giving Ocalan the Terrorist passports is like giving Osama Bin Laden passports.

So many lessons to learn. I hope Turkiye breaks this so called rules based order.

Be careful what you wish for. If you are fully onboard breaking contemporary US-led world order, who is gonna replace it? Türkiye? Not big enough. In the end, it only enables PRC (and to some extent India) to take over. To which I say, no thanks. BD will get sandwiched if it happens.

Believe it or not, For all America's bullsh*t in the Middle East, they are the least worst option everyone got. Till things turn around in the global south and countries like Bangladesh develops reasonably, we need United States of America as an important counter balance.

 

[Ryder]

Be careful what you wish for. If you are fully onboard breaking contemporary US-led world order, who is gonna replace it? Türkiye? Not big enough. In the end, it only enables PRC (and to some extent India) to take over. To which I say, no thanks. BD will get sandwiched if it happens.

Believe it or not, For all America's bullsh*t in the Middle East, they are the least worst option everyone got. Till things turn around in the global south and countries like Bangladesh develops reasonably, we need United States of America as an important counter balance.

None i dont want a Russian, Chinese or an American led order.

 

[Afif]

None i dont want a Russian, Chinese or an American led order.

It's not about wanting, if we try to bring down US-led order no matter what, it will only enable other big countries by default. Which is gonna make it much more chaotic and worse than the current want.

 

[Heartbang]

In the end, it only enables PRC (and to some extent India) to take over. To which I say, no thanks. BD will get sandwiched if it happens.

PRC is flirting with total civilizational death and the indians are following their example, whether they like it or not.
In the long term, we the Turks do have a solid shot at governing the world order, and the path of that goes through the US-led world order dying at the hand of the chinese.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791039173400375419

Seems it's real, more and more and more reporting published on it.



We're sending the Turkmen and Arabs on a grand adventure to Africa to guard mines with a monthly $1500 dollars payment for your families to survive only if you survive, that is if your gang leaders in the SNA don't steal it first (along with the $350 fee they take from your salary)

Also that business he wants to start. Will it be in Syria ? No... it'll be in Istanbul or Ankara.






Also, surprisingly good money.



And of course, citizenship.

One of the former FSA accounts is reporting that as there are no Turkish bases in the region, Turkey is sending SNA to Russian bases to then be mobilised to fight Boko Haram.

Google image translate:

will write you a letter and you will publish it

sham_plus3

Oh brother, we are here in Nigeria. They brought us to Nigeria, Abu Amsha and Sultan Murad’s group, and he said the salary was 3,500 dollars. We got gravy from the village of Kilis and headed towards Turkey. The Turks took us from Turkey, to Nigeria, via air. When we arrived in Nigeria, they put us in a Russian base, followed by the Russians, and here they were all Russian officers and heavily guarded.

We often go to battles to learn how to fight. They only let us go to the battlefield. We are fighting the Boko Haram organization affiliated with ISIS, and we are seeing death with our own eyes.

Out of 450 members, we have 70 left, and today morning 5 have been slaughtered and we have no choice but to do anything.

Abu Amsha's Sultan Murad is supposedly a Turkmen group.

Also more and more news is reporting it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791778600770801852

https://www.evrensel.net/yazi/94863/turkiye-suriyeli-silahli-gruplari-afrikaya-mi-gonderiyor

Maybe there will be conclusive news soon.


Can someone confirm if this is a Turkish vehicle in the second half of the video ?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789993198368039325

 

[Kartal1]

One of the former FSA accounts is reporting that as there are no Turkish bases in the region, Turkey is sending SNA to Russian bases to then be mobilised to fight Boko Haram.

Google image translate:



Abu Amsha's Sultan Murad is supposedly a Turkmen group.

Also more and more news is reporting it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791778600770801852

https://www.evrensel.net/yazi/94863/turkiye-suriyeli-silahli-gruplari-afrikaya-mi-gonderiyor

Maybe there will be conclusive news soon.


Can someone confirm if this is a Turkish vehicle in the second half of the video ?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789993198368039325

I don't see how this is happening. Russians no matter military or Wagner personnel and SNA at the same place is just not possible. To me this sounds like a pure propaganda.

 

[Bozan]

I don't see how this is happening. Russians no matter military or Wagner personnel and SNA at the same place is just not possible. To me this sounds like a pure propaganda.

Colonial France is pretty annoyed right now, so this is also likely

Have the SNA been bombed by Russia in the last year ? I thought Russia is just targeting Idlib HTS for a while now

 

[Kartal1]

Colonial France is pretty annoyed right now, so this is also likely

Have the SNA been bombed by Russia in the last year ? I thought Russia is just targeting Idlib HTS for a while now

They bombed targets belonging to Shahba (HTS related) in our areas. An interesting development is the cessation of the Turkish-Russian patrols in the north of Syria.

Check Syria thread for interesting info.

 

[Kartal1]

Yes, this is a very big problem. Even the Taliban told us "send them back" regarding the illegal Afghan migrants. The Syria topic is also clear. Many young Afghans are coming to Turkiye mainly to work and gain some money for marriage as marriages in Afghanistan are expensive. Only Mehr (bride price) can go up to 40.000$ or even more. The wedding party, the wedding itself is another story, so they are forced to find alternatives for income. In this sense many Afghans come to Turkiye and return to Afghanistan later so they can marry. Ironically they are not the biggest problem when it comes to terrorism.

In short both illegal and legal travel from Central Asia including Afghanistan and Russia is risky. As the majority of the terrorists (ISKP) that are posing threat to Turkish and regional security are Tajik, the government took tight measures restricting the free flow of Tajik citizens.

When it comes to the problem in Central Asia I think it should be countered on the territory of these countries trough tight coordination, intelligence sharing and other security agreements. I think there is a lack of proactive approach and surveillance. We are not talking about war torn countries, but relatively developed countries with tradition when it comes to intelligence. It is clear that IS in these countries limits their offensive activities so they don't bring the attention over them. Rather than attacking they are using the freedom and lack of control to recruit new followers who they radicalize and conduct fundraising activities.

Why am I saying that special screening initiatives should be started? Because the regular IS lone wolf is not a PhD in Physics or a notorious businessman, having a girlfriend, driving a cabriolet around the town. This is why background check of such individuals is a must prior to entering Turkiye or any other country.

Intelligence should be gathered by the local authorities in countries with high risk on neighbourhood principle and a report should be kept about every citizen falling into a certain criteria which is a precondition for him to become a security risk. The people who are falling in this list should be kept under surveillance and regular reports (once monthly) should be written by the responsible case officer regarding developments in his life, his work, travel etc. Every 3 months a conclusion report must be written which is added into a large database in which such risky individuals are categorized according to the security risk they pose and annually such individuals may be excluded from the list. The border guards and institutions that are responsible for migration should have access to the database and determine if an individual is let to cross the border according to the categorization (red, orange, yellow, you name it) and the border security and migration authorities should be able to access the latest conclusion report reviewing the details regarding the categorization of this individual, also a hot line in a joint operative center should exist that is able to provide further support and coordination between partner countries relative authorities, also other partner countries services. All of the countries participating in this intelligence sharing agreement must have access to this database trough a common platform integrated into the border control system of a participant country. Based on border personnel perception of risk and the included report, the individual taking place in this list may be let pass the border point, denied entry or detained/deported if there is a warrant for his arrest.

Yes, I know that this is a lot of work, but taking in account the security risks involved this system will serve well all of the countries that participate in this common platform. There is a risk and we must face this risk with preventive measures and coordination between interested sides. Every country is expected to take seriously the terrorism threat, especially in these times. There is a certain reality that many terrorists are coming from Central Asian countries and we must press these countries to start screening their citizens and make possible for better security evaluation and terrorism prevention otherwise unfortunately it is not possible for Turkiye to accept people from these countries without visa and vise versa. We should either enforce a joint screening database or cease visa free travel. A system that is close to this concept is the Schengen Information System. I think such a coordinated border control initiative may also serve for the future of our international cooperation within the Turkic Council and other regional partners. While we are talking solely about terrorism prevention, I think this system's potential is bigger and its function can be expanded, so the process around border control and customs activities may be optimized (faster border crossing, less waiting time) among participants. This system should be applied as a "bundle" to the existing border security software of these countries no matter if we talk about land border crossings, airports or maritime ports. We should know who is who.

What the National Intelligence Academy is proposing regarding the fight against IS-K and the international cooperation regarding this issue:

Suggestions regarding cooperation with Central Asian countries;

1. Addressing the threats of radicalization, violent extremism, Islamophobia, xenophobia and terrorism stated in the security cooperation subheading of the 2040 vision of the Organization of Turkic States, increased cooperation and information sharing among member states to ensure effective counter-terrorism and ensure border security. Establishing institutional structures within the scope of creating a network for the purpose of sharing policies, In this context, developing a common discursive language on the basis of the fight against terrorism.

3. Establishing an intelligence pool regarding the activities of IS and in this context, the relevant States should increase the coordination of institutions with each other.

4. A counter-terrorism mechanism to be established specifically for Afghanistan and Pakistan, linking it with the Organization of Turkic States.

5. Establishing an infrastructure that will enable to conduct studies on elements that can be exploited by terrorist organizations due to issues such as migration and climate crisis and implementing preventive mechanisms.

6. Determining a comprehensive road map for de-radicalization efforts and defining specific responsibilities and tasks to relevant actors in line with the map; initiating capacity building work to fulfill responsibilities,

7. Planning joint studies on the field with universities in Central Asian countries, by correctly reading and interpreting the change processes within the terrorist organization and establishment of mechanisms necessary to combat terrorism.

8. Ensuring that religious education is provided by institutionalized structures.

 

[Sanchez]

One of the former FSA accounts is reporting that as there are no Turkish bases in the region, Turkey is sending SNA to Russian bases to then be mobilised to fight Boko Haram.

Google image translate:



Abu Amsha's Sultan Murad is supposedly a Turkmen group.

Also more and more news is reporting it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791778600770801852

https://www.evrensel.net/yazi/94863/turkiye-suriyeli-silahli-gruplari-afrikaya-mi-gonderiyor

Maybe there will be conclusive news soon.


Can someone confirm if this is a Turkish vehicle in the second half of the video ?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1789993198368039325

Not any one of the mainstream Turkish makers. Looks like an IAG, unsure tho.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1791539846340657273

Who is the European Union funding in Turkey? I investigate this and again I see hypocrisy. Among the ones I have been able to identify so far are TRT, TÜGVA, TÜRGEV, SETA Foundation, IHH, ÖNDER Imam Hatipliler Association and the World Ethnosport Confederation (Bilal Erdogan).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1792084131624440002

Bilal Erdogan also receives funds from the European Union. He applied to the EU Erasmus fund 7 times for his ethnosport hobby and received a grant of 500,000+ €.

Source: EU Erasmus+ funding programme official page
erasmus-plus.ec.europa.eu

I wonder if this is EU strategy or just bad EU bureaucracy and no strategy