TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Agha Sher]

Can Turkiye afford to let Iran collapse?

Türkiye is next on Israel's list - and Türkiye is still 10 years from being able to comfortably deal with Israel...

 

[mTT]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1934593449929650584

 

[mTT]

Can Turkiye afford to let Iran collapse?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1934614080536621349

 

[fushkee]

Most probably, they have a collaboration between them as in Esad’s Syrian regime

 

[TR_123456]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1934614080536621349

Bs,Gallant said on CNN: We need to finish the job with the US.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Can Turkiye afford to let Iran collapse?

Türkiye is next on Israel's list - and Türkiye is still 10 years from being able to comfortably deal with Israel...

Nonsense, Turkey are experts in asymmetric warfare. There is no country except perhaps the US that has such a wide and deep selection of intelligent ammunition, let alone its integration into their platforms.
The special feature of Turkish precision-guided munitions is that they are deliberately calibrated to ECM, GPS spoofing, and GPS jamming or total failure. Turkey is aware that the US can pull the plug at any time in the event of a conflict of interest.
Turkey is the only country besides Israel that has complete C4ISR capabilities. Not even industrialized nations within NATO have this capacity, with the exception of the US and the UK/France.
It is also the only country besides the US (and to some extent Israel) that can use drone swarm tactics in combination with loitering munitions and cruise missiles to launch a saturation attack that can disable any, and I mean any, air defense system through overload, no matter how good or advanced it may be.

Iran does not have any of this, let alone Sensors, AESA Radar, battlefield situational awareness with its own Link 16/22 equivalent for national interests for a network of systems. Not to mention precision electronics for surgical strikes. The Iranians fight with mass without class, typical Soviet/Russian tactics without Russia's capacity.

Israel is only strong because it is 2-3 levels above Iran technologically. Let them fight an equal opponent and you will see how they are completely wiped out.
You act as if they are demigods because they have custom F-35s.

 

[No Name]

Looks like Erdogan brought the Indians into the Mediterranean, this will be annoying.

India and Cyprus to step up defense, maritime and cybersecurity cooperation

 

[IC3M@N FX]

You shouldn’t be worried about Israel — a desert country with no food, water or energy resources, no navy to speak of, and a heavy reliance on imports. Israel wouldn’t last four weeks against us.

You should be worried about the United States. The wealthiest Americans are Jewish, and they control the most powerful lobbying groups in the U.S. All they need to do is pressure Washington to impose sanctions, and Türkiye’s economy could collapse.

Once Iran is broken up, the next step will be to provoke ethnic tensions using the Kurds, Alawis, Christians in Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Türkiye to destabilize the region. Israel cannot survive in a stable Middle East — it relies on regional chaos to dominate.

The US will not allow Israel to pursue an aggressive policy toward Turkey because they are afraid that Turkey will switch sides and that this will then be irreversible.

Yes, Israel has an extremely powerful lobby in the US, but it is not their gods who decide everything for them.
If they see that the hegemony of the US will be significantly and rightly weakened, they will not do everything in their power to attack Turkey together with Israel just because Israel suffers from latent schizophrenia.

Remember that Turkey has created a unique position for itself. It is geographically located in a key position between Europe, the Middle East, the Far East, the Caucasus, and Africa as a transit point for goods and energy and migration. Some of you curse Erdogan's politics and money economy, and I can understand and confirm that.
But he has done something extremely important: he has completely decoupled the Turkish economy from the West and globally networked it through diversification. Unfortunately, this is not possible without side effects, because it means a loss of control for the US/Israel (dollar), and of course they are countering this with rating agencies and pressure on the currency.
Turkey is a key state within NATO and has never lost a war because it has a national consciousness that 70-80% of Arab states do not have. As soon as these countries feel pressure from a war, they collapse. Their power is based on control; the people have almost no national consciousness or unity to fight beyond death, but that is a minimum requirement in a war.
Vietnam is the best example: technologically inferior to the US, the Americans were shown their limits because their will was greater than that of the US.

Americans and Israelis are used to fighting weaker opponents. When faced with very strong opposition, their soldiers cannot cope because it is unnatural for them. They cannot understand that people will fight to the death for something greater than themselves. In Turkey, this is revered and considered a natural constant, like martyrdom, because it is part of society. In the US or Israel, people would only talk about the loss.

 

[hugh]

But he has done something extremely important: he has completely decoupled the Turkish economy from the West and globally networked it through diversification.

What metrics do you use to make this claim?

Here's a quote from the minister of trade

"Avrupa Birliği üye ülkelerine (AB-27) 2024 yılında yaptığımız ihracat bir önceki yıla göre %4,1 artış ile 108,5 milyar dolara ulaşarak en yüksek değerine çıkmıştır. "

English:

"Our exports to the European Union member countries (EU-27) in 2024 reached its highest value, reaching 108.5 billion dollars, with a 4.1% increase compared to the previous year."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885262246731014514

 

[RMZN]

he has completely decoupled the Turkish economy from the West and globally networked it through diversification.

Lol

 

[IC3M@N FX]

What metrics do you use to make this claim?

Here's a quote from the minister of trade

"Avrupa Birliği üye ülkelerine (AB-27) 2024 yılında yaptığımız ihracat bir önceki yıla göre %4,1 artış ile 108,5 milyar dolara ulaşarak en yüksek değerine çıkmıştır. "

English:

"Our exports to the European Union member countries (EU-27) in 2024 reached its highest value, reaching 108.5 billion dollars, with a 4.1% increase compared to the previous year."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885262246731014514

Yes, and???? They have completely globalized their economy, but that doesn't mean that they won't or don't want to trade with the West and the EU. Does Turkey have debts to the IMF or the ECB? No, it has paid off 24-25 billion in debt. Why do you think that is?

Turkey's Trade Before 2008 – Historical Overview

From 2000 to 2007, Turkey’s trade volume grew significantly, especially with European Union countries. While EU remained the primary trade region, ties with Asia and the Middle East started to strengthen.

Key figures (2008):

Exports: Approx. $132 billion

Imports: Approx. $202 billion


Main trading partners in 2008:

Top export destinations:

Germany (~$12.95B, 9.8%)

UK (~$8.16B, 6.2%)

UAE (~$7.98B, 6.0%)

Italy (~$7.82B, 5.9%)

France (~$6.62B, 5.0%)


Top import sources:

Russia (~$31.36B, 15.5%)

Germany (~$18.69B, 9.3%)

China (~$15.66B, 7.8%)

USA (~$11.98B, 5.9%)

Italy (~$10.68B, 5.3%)


Summary: In the pre-global-financial-crisis era, Turkey’s economy was heavily dependent on trade with EU countries, especially Germany and Italy, and maintained strong energy and goods trade with Russia and China.


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Turkey’s Trade in 2025 – Current Snapshot

As of early 2025, Turkey's trade volume has expanded substantially.

Key figures (2024–2025 estimates):

Exports: ~$262 billion

Imports: ~$344 billion


Main trading partners in 2025:

Top export destinations:

Germany (~$21B, 8.3%)

USA (~$17B, 6.6%)

Iraq (~$13.8B, 5.4%)

UK (~$13.0B, 5.1%)

Italy (~$12.4B, 4.9%)


Top import sources:

Russia (~$58.8B, 16.2%)

China (~$41.4B, 11.4%)

Special trade categories (~$34.5B, 9.5%)

Germany (~$24.0B, 6.6%)

Switzerland (~$15.3B, 4.2%)

Selected bilateral relationships:

India: ~$10.4B in trade volume (exports ~$2.84B, imports ~$5.2B)

Iran: Energy trade-focused; ~$10B trade volume; Turkey imports ~30% of its natural gas from Iran

Qatar: Trade surged from $38M in 2000 to $1.43B in 2018 and growing

Algeria: ~6.3B USD by mid-2024, making up ~1/3 of Turkey’s trade with Africa

Trade Overview Table

Period Top Export Destinations (2025) Top Import Sources (2025)

Pre-2008 Germany, UK, UAE, Italy, France Russia, Germany, China, USA, Italy
2025 Germany, USA, Iraq, UK, Italy (+India) Russia, China, Special Items, Germany, Switzerland

Before 2008: EU was the center of Turkish trade; Russia and China were rising as key import partners.

By 2025: Germany remains the top partner. The USA has gained ground in exports, Russia and China dominate imports, and Turkey is diversifying further into Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

 

[hugh]

Yes, and???? They have completely globalized their economy, but that doesn't mean that they won't or don't want to trade with the West and the EU. Does Turkey have debts to the IMF or the ECB? No, it has paid off 24-25 billion in debt. Why do you think that is?

do you know what "completely decoupled the Turkish economy from the West" means or you're just throwing words around with no substance behind? how can you conflate having no debt to imf with decoupling the economy from the west?

 

[Sanchez]

Does Turkey have debts to the IMF or the ECB?

Debts to foreign organizations have never stopped Turkey having a free foreign policy, not in 1921, not in 1974, not in 1995.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

ChatGPT Paid Question

Has Turkey Diversified Its Economy Away from the West and Why?

Yes over the past two decades, Turkey has clearly shifted its economic and trade strategy—from being primarily tied to Western and European markets to becoming a globally diversified trading nation. This transformation is driven by political, economic, and strategic factors.


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Evidence of Trade Diversification

Before 2008:

Over 50% of Turkey’s trade was with the EU.

Main partners: Germany, France, UK, Italy.

Minimal trade with Asia, Africa, or the Middle East (aside from energy imports from Russia/Iran).


By 2025:

Turkey exports to over 200 countries.

EU share of exports has dropped to about 40% (from over 55%).

New major partners: Iraq, Qatar, UAE, China, India, African nations (e.g., Algeria, Ethiopia).

Expansion of free trade agreements and custom union negotiations with Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

Turkish firms heavily involved in construction, textiles, and logistics in Africa, Central Asia, and the Gulf.



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Why Did Turkey Diversify?

1. Geopolitical Tensions with the West

After the failed coup in 2016 and increasing criticism from the EU/US over human rights, Ankara began distancing itself from Western dependency.

Strategic rebalancing to reduce reliance on EU/US economies.


2. Rapid Growth in Emerging Markets

Countries like China, India, and sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing fast economic growth.

High demand for infrastructure, textiles, machinery—key Turkish exports.

These markets are less saturated and more open to Turkish investment.


3. Strategic Foreign Policy (“Neo-Ottomanism”)

Under President Erdoğan, Turkey has pursued a more assertive foreign policy, aiming to strengthen ties with former Ottoman regions (e.g., the Balkans, Middle East, North Africa).

Trade and investment are used as tools of “soft power” alongside cultural diplomacy and military cooperation.


4. Logistics and Geography

Major investments in airports, railroads (e.g., Baku–Tbilisi–Kars line), pipelines.

Turkey as a logistical bridge between Asia and Europe (including via China’s Belt and Road Initiative).


5. Currency and Cost Advantages

The Turkish lira’s depreciation has made Turkish exports cheaper and more competitive globally.

Lower labor costs than in Europe attract investment from countries seeking affordable production bases.



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Conclusion

Yes, Turkey has successfully diversified its economy and foreign trade beyond its traditional Western orientation.
This shift is both a strategic response to political friction with the West and a proactive move to capture growth opportunities in the Global South and Asia.

 

[Sanchez]

ChatGPT Paid Question

Yeah, no. Use your own words please.

 

[BalkanTurk90]

Can Turkiye afford to let Iran collapse?

Türkiye is next on Israel's list - and Türkiye is still 10 years from being able to comfortably deal with Israel...

I think we dont need because iran regime will not go down and their country became like libiya.
Israel with those attacks on Iran cant stop them to build the bomb since they work on bomb 800 metres under mountains but they want to destroy irani economy , let people hungry rise and kill each other , destroying irani regime and make it new pro west regime just like in other countries .
Will they achive it ?
I dont think , perhaps US air force can do it destroy everything inside iran but than iran can aslo closse straits of Hormus and put whole planet earth on economic disaster thats why Iran got his ass safe from US bombing since 30 years unlike libya , iraq and others .
And thats why US say ' we are out' because dont want iran to closse the straits and attack oil fields of saudis , emirates , qataris .

 

[IC3M@N FX]

do you know what "completely decoupled the Turkish economy from the West" means or you're just throwing words around with no substance behind? how can you conflate having no debt to imf with decoupling the economy from the west?

Decoupled means that you no longer necessarily need them; it would be economically damaging without them, but they are no longer absolutely essential as they were 15-20 years ago.
The trend will also increase: trade volume will rise with the US and EU, but measured against the world without the US and EU, the ratio will be 60-70% world (without US and EU) and 30-40% US and EU. I call this decoupling the economy, i.e., no longer creating exclusive dependencies on a single power bloc.

 

[Sanchez]

Decoupled means that you no longer necessarily need them; it would be economically damaging without them, but they are no longer absolutely essential as they were 15-20 years ago.
The trend will also increase: trade volume will rise with the US and EU, but measured against the world without the US and EU, the ratio will be 60-70% world (without US and EU) and 30-40% US and EU. I call this decoupling the economy, i.e., no longer creating exclusive dependencies on a single power bloc.

I think it's not that hard to argue that if %30-40 of your export economy evaporates overnight and you lose 100 billion in potential revenue(about 10% of 2023 Turkish GDP), you are still very much shafted. We don't have trillions of dollars lying in the soil, waiting to be extracted like Russia does. We start to feel the outcome of that lost revenue in an instant.

Does Turkey expand its markets to not be beholden to a single market? Very much so yes. Does it mean Turkey have managed to or plan to decouple itself from western economies? Not at all.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

I think it's not that hard to argue that if %30-40 of your export economy evaporates overnight and you lose 100 billion in potential revenue(about 10% of 2023 Turkish GDP), you are still very much shafted. We don't have trillions of dollars lying in the soil, waiting to be extracted like Russia does. We start to feel the outcome of that lost revenue in an instant.

Does Turkey expand its markets to not be beholden to a single market? Very much so yes. Does it mean Turkey have managed to or plan to decouple itself from western economies? Not at all.

Look, I'm not saying that they will voluntarily give up money just because it's the US and the EU. They will increase trade volumes if possible. But they will no longer focus exclusively on the US and the EU; they will focus on global trade itself, including their soft power in the Middle East, the Far East, and Africa.
They want a larger share of trade relative to the US and Europe, and they have strategic reasons for this.

 

[Sanchez]

Look, I'm not saying that they will voluntarily give up money just because it's the US and the EU. They will increase trade volumes if possible. But they will no longer focus exclusively on the US and the EU; they will focus on global trade itself, including their soft power in the Middle East, the Far East, and Africa.
They want a larger share of trade relative to the US and Europe, and they have strategic reasons for this.

I'll argue we never focused exclusively on the west. Stuff we built or harvested in the past was only good for those countries, now the stuff we build and harvest are sold all over because countries to our east have grown as well, like we did. Iraq now is our single biggest trade partner because Saddam is gone and country opened up to unhampered Turkish business. Syria will be like that in 5 years because Assad is gone.

I don't disagree that this is good and there are strategic outlines on it, but to say that we are decoupled, or plan to decouple to get ready to weather the coming storm from the west is just wrong. European security and economic security still is and will be Turkish security for decades to come. Erdoğan said as much few months ago. If anything, us being this coupled to Europe is just another layer of economic and strategic defence from that direction. If Turkish banks fall, Spanish economy shrinks overnight by 10%. We are east, we are west.