If China invades Taiwan with force, Taiwan will definitely lose?


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Analyze the three keys to the success or failure of the war from the perspective of cross-strait military strength.

1.Taiwan’s strength
Although Taiwan is a small country compared with China, its strength cannot be underestimated. For example, in 2021, Taiwan's GDP ranked 22nd in the world. Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves in January 2022 were US$548.8 billion, ranking 5th in the world. Looking at the military rankings, due to different calculation standards of different organizations, although Taiwan's ranking fluctuates, it is roughly around 20th. Comparing this with Taiwan's population ranking 56th in the world and its land area ranking 137th, the performance of the above three "numbers" makes it no exaggeration to say that Taiwan is a "little giant".
Unfortunately, strength, weakness, and size are not absolutes, but contrasts. In terms of GDP in 2021, Taiwan's GDP is only 4.42% of China's. As for foreign exchange reserves, Taiwan’s is approximately 16.89% of China’s. According to the "2022 Military Power Ranking" released by the military website "Global Firepower", China ranks 3rd and Taiwan 21st.
Although there is a slight gap between "21" and "3", if we look at the same data, Ukraine ranks 42nd in the world and Russia ranks 2nd. Looking at the Russia-Ukraine war between "42" and "2", it seems that the signs are indistinguishable so far. If "numbers can speak", it seems that who will win and who will lose in the cross-strait war is still undecided.

2.The fighting spirit of Taiwanese people
Taiwan's military strength cannot be compared with China, but the victory or defeat of a war does not entirely depend on "hard power." For example, the United States has been fighting in Afghanistan for twenty years, but it was the Taliban who finally won. Compared with the US military, whether in terms of numbers or equipment, the Taliban are small and weak. Their victory depends on the tenacious fighting spirit of the Afghan people. In other words, if Taiwanese people have the same fighting spirit as Afghans, what does the CCP have to fear?

3. Don’t tease potential enemies
Fighting against gangsters, no matter whether I win or lose, I will always lose. This is the worst policy. What is the best policy? Put an end to the idea of robbers committing robbery. Or to be more precise, don't appeal to the gangster's greed, such as showing off his money, wearing a designer suit, or wearing a Rolex diamond watch. If the robber knew that he would not get the money he wanted by committing a crime, would he still commit a robbery?
Facing the possibility of military reunification, Taipei's main goal is to avoid war; and the first thing to avoid war is not to provoke the CCP and give Beijing an excuse to reunify. To achieve this goal, Taipei should actively create an atmosphere of "hope for peace and reunification", because hope will prevent despair. Once desperate, drastic measures may be taken. The definitions of "hope" and "atmosphere" are very unclear, and may even be just an illusion. However, if you can create expectations for your opponents, it can maintain the status quo.

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