India Corona thread

[Nilgiri]

Please post news, updates and analysis here for discussion etc. If activity/interest picks up for it, I will pin it.

================

Huge Study of Coronavirus Cases in India Offers Some Surprises to Scientists (Published 2020)

The rate of death went down in patients over 65. Researchers also found that children of all ages became infected and spread the virus to others.

www.nytimes.com

Though its overall total of cases is huge, the per capita number of cases reported daily in India — and in many other low-income countries, including in Africa — is lower than in Spain, France or even the United States. And its number of deaths has not yet topped 100,000 — which has surprised some scientists.

India “is a place where you would expect a disease like this to roar through, at least in the older populations,” said Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious disease expert at the Medical University of South Carolina. “They haven’t seen that as much as you would expect.”

(More at link)

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

In every country there are a lot of unreported cases. I'd imagine that in a country with over a billion people there is a significant amount of active cases which aren't being reported.

The fact that some people don't get symptoms really does make COVID-19 difficult to stop.

@Nilgiri When do you think India's active cases will drop below 1000? Or do you think it's here to stay for the foreseeable future?

 

[Nilgiri]

In every country there are a lot of unreported cases. I'd imagine that in a country with over a billion people there is a significant amount of active cases which aren't being reported.

Yes for sure. Other countries in region test even less per capita so there is likely bigger void of the situation reality with them.

The good thing with India's strategy is it tries to achieve a 100% testing rate with SARI/ILI cases (severe acute respiratory/influenze like illness) esp for mortalities so we know the death figures are reliable...and they have more or less stabilised (rather than continue to ramp up).

Also with the testing rate remaining at its current level (at about 1 million tests per day since mid september), the new cases detected are not ramping up either now, but showing a decline from the peak at mid september (100k detected a day compared to around 75k detected a day today).

The larger strategy of course is now understood to be better protection for people with the noticeable underlying conditions/age that increases the mortality rate from rare to significant enough...along with of course reasonable measures to reduce overall transmission rate in a functioning open-as-possible economy.

More on that: https://www.hindustantimes.com/noid...id-19-cases/story-qRIMqnPrYbmnQ4HiFVEjBK.html

The fact that some people don't get symptoms really does make COVID-19 difficult to stop.

Yah, though (IIRC) it seems those that are asymptomatic are at least lot worse at spreading it compared to symptomatics.

@Nilgiri When do you think India's active cases will drop below 1000? Or do you think it's here to stay for the foreseeable future?

Well active cases hit around 1 million in mid September and are now down to 867k. Drop down to 1k is going to take a very long time given testing rate and spread continues and really needs vaccination to put a big enough dent in long term....as herd immunity (in time frame we are talking about) is not viable given size of population.

 

[Nilgiri]

Serum Institute of India (SII) official has said that they’ll be ready with 60-70 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine by December. But the vaccine will be made available in market by March 2021. Covishield vaccine has been developed by Oxford University & being manufactured by the Serum Institute of India.

 

[Nilgiri]

US, EU block India's fight for IPR waiver for Covid drugs | India News - Times of India

India News: The US, European Union, the UK and Switzerland, along with Brazil, have not supported India and South Africa's proposal at the World Trade Organisatio

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

NEW DELHI: The US, European Union, the UK and Switzerland, along with Brazil, have not supported India and South Africa's proposal at the World Trade Organisation for a temporary waiver of intellectual property rights to address drug and other issues related to Covid-19.

At the same time, several developing countries, including China, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia and Turkey, have backed the proposal, which is still on the table but needs to be ratified by the WTO Trips Council by the end of the year. It was also supported by the World Health Organisation.

"WHO welcomes South Africa's and India's recent proposal to WTO to ease international & intellectual property agreements on Covid-19 vaccines, treatments & tests in order to make the tools available to all who need them at an affordable cost," the agency tweeted.

(More at link)

Hey look, India and Pakistan on the same side on something (pretty significant) hehe

@Saiyan0321 @VCheng @Saithan @Kaptaan @Yankeestani @T-123456

 

[VCheng]

Hey look, India and Pakistan on the same side on something (pretty significant) hehe

Except that India can actually produce useful medicines in large quantities.

 

[Nilgiri]

Except that India can actually produce useful medicines in large quantities.

Well the support is still appreciated from all countries...its a humanitarian issue in the end and I am sure India and Pakistan can work something out to export vaccines to Pakistan at scale when they are ready if required.

 

[VCheng]

Well the support is still appreciated from all countries...its a humanitarian issue in the end and I am sure India and Pakistan can work something out to export vaccines to Pakistan at scale when they are ready if required.

Traditionally, Pakistan has been hesitant to order products from India, but may be this time it will be different.

 

[Kaptaan]

Traditionally, Pakistan has been hesitant to order products from India, but may be this time it will be different.

No more if not less than USA is with Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia etc and seeinmg that you can only see out of one eye India is also hesitant. And I already know what your gonna say about this. "Pakistan has nothing to export". Sometimes I wonder if you are even Pakistani. I was not even born in PK and utterly despise the pollution of religion and imported elites in the country but I still have a feeling for it. Instead of kicking it at every corner because I had itch on my backside that I could quite not get to.

And @Nilgiri its good to see countries working together against coronavirus which is a threat to humanity and peoples across the globe.

 

[VCheng]

No more if not less than USA is with Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia etc and seeinmg that you can only see out of one eye India is also hesitant. And I already know what your gonna say about this. "Pakistan has nothing to export". Sometimes I wonder if you are even Pakistani. I was not even born in PK and utterly despise the pollution of religion and imported elites in the country but I still have a feeling for it. Instead of kicking it at every corner because I had itch on my backside that I could quite not get to.

And @Nilgiri its good to see countries working together against coronavirus which is a threat to humanity and peoples across the globe.

Let's explore this a bit: In your view, what can Pakistan export to India that makes economic sense?

 

[Kaptaan]

Let's explore this a bit: In your view, what can Pakistan export to India that makes economic sense?

People for a start. Good examples are like you. Seriously though even without doing any research dried fruits, nuts and basmati rice to be re-exported at premium price after recieving superior Indian branding and quality control.

 

[VCheng]

People for a start. Good examples are like you. Seriously though even without doing any research dried fruits, nuts and basmati rice to be re-exported at premium price after recieving superior Indian branding and quality control.

Could you please expand on those items to see what makes economic sense? May be @Nilgiri can add some useful data without resorting to juvenile labels born of intellectual bankruptcy?

If such items are truly better as you claim than those produced by India, why is Pakistan not able to achieve global export success on its own against its competition?

 

[Kaptaan]

Could you please expand on those items to see what makes economic sense? May be @Nilgiri can add some useful data without resorting to juvenile labels born of intellectual bankruptcy?

If such items are truly better as you claim than those produced by India, why is Pakistan not able to achieve global export success on its own against its competition?

I just give up with you. You appear to be addled with hatred for Pakistan. Continue on your merry journey ...

 

[VCheng]

I just give up with you. You appear to be addled with hatred for Pakistan. Continue on your merry journey ...

So you have no answers to the perfectly valid questions posed above. I figured as much.

BTW, to remain on topic, if Pakistani rice does better under an Indian (re)label, what chance would pharmaceuticals made in Pakistan have globally?

 

[TR_123456]

Except that India can actually produce useful medicines in large quantities.

The most important factor:cheap,so that 'poor' countries can also buy them.

 

[VCheng]

The most important factor:cheap,so that 'poor' countries can also buy them.

Of course. That is precisely I used the phrase "makes economic sense" in the global marketplace.

 

[TR_123456]

Of course. That is precisely I used the phrase "makes economic sense" in the global marketplace.

Vage but ok,ill buy it.

 

[Nilgiri]

India records lowest test positivity of 4.5% since June, new cases dip below 50,000

ThePrint’s daily Covid tracker that brings you the numbers that matter — from total cases, tests done and recoveries to positivity rate and deaths.

theprint.in

New Delhi: India’s test positivity rate fell to 4.5 per cent Tuesday — lowest since June — and the country also saw a significant dip in fresh Covid cases.

Over the last 24 hours, 46,790 people have tested positive for the disease. This is the lowest number of daily Covid-19 cases reported since 27 July.

(more at link)

 

[kaykay]

Cases per day is now below 50k with roughly 1+ million tests daily. No drop in tests but significant drop in positivity rate( about half of what It was a month back).

 

[Nilgiri]

A few of the projected costings @VCheng @T-123456 et al:

India sets aside $7 bn to vaccinate the world's second biggest population against coronavirus

Prime Minister Narendra Modis administration estimates an all-in cost of about $6-$7 per person in the nation of 1.3 billion, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private. The money provisioned so far is for the current financial year ending March 31 and there will be...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

• India is said to estimate two injections per person at $2 a shot
• Another $2-$3 is said to be set aside per individual as infrastructure costs such as storage and transport