India India - Pakistan Relations

[Nilgiri]

Given the size of the wreckage, it's not some NG or mini version but the OG Brahmos or the likes which can only be carried by a modified Su-30 given with strengthened undercarriage given the missile's weight

I don't think we'd go to such lengths just to test their ADs or track patterns unless we intend to launch a full scale war in the immediate future. Also, the flight ceiling for Brahmos is 15km (49k ft) and this applied to ground/air/ship launched versions I believe

Well they can't say they didn't/couldn't track the missile...that would mean backlash. It was an error from our end while pak's ADs were also found napping resulting in both coming to a backchannel agreement and tryna save face

Seems really stupid to be doing these tests so close to border if its just a flat out normie test or sim....that makes no sense to me tbh, these are not cheap systems without requisite CnC robustness and SOP (that would follow NOTAM and enough distance away...generally indian ocean tests).

I wonder if there was a payload with ELINT module on it to pick up what certain engagement patterns even are from other side (at this speed). Such a thing would be discreet and maybe even somewhat routine...you run parallel to the border hug and snoop....build up database to wargame better, in a low enough RCS package with this supersonic velocity too.

This time there was a mishap or glitch at end that caused it to veer....thankfully it got completely destroyed and also there was no civilian casualties.

India should "run" its investigation etc.... and pay relevant compensation for the ground damage it did on Pakistan side.

 

[crixus]

cpl days back, some gunmen shot dead one of the IC-814 hijackers too....the same MC that slit that guys throat

IC-814 hijacker Mistry Zahoor Ibrahim shot dead in Karachi: Reports

Ibrahim was shot by two unidentified attackers inside a furniture store in Karachi's Akbar Colony. He was living under the alias of Zahid Akhund and was the owner of Crescent Furniture.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Seems like learned some lessons from the Israilis , The explanation given by INdian govt is not sufficient enough to
make us believe that its a mere accident

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502423699580162049

 

[TR_123456]

Seems like they have started testing missiles on live targets inside Pakistan

This is no joke,could be misunderstood.
There is no ''A missile was fired accidentally from the Indian side into an area in Pakistan earlier this week''.
Why test it there, imcompetence or not.
What happens when Syria accidently fires a missile into Turkish territory?
It would be seen as an act of war.

 

[TR_123456]

Seems really stupid to be doing these tests so close to border

This.

 

[crixus]

This is no joke,could be misunderstood.
There is no ''A missile was fired accidentally from the Indian side into an area in Pakistan earlier this week''.
Why test it there, imcompetence or not.
What happens when Syria accidently fires a missile into Turkish territory?
It would be seen as an act of war.

To be honest neither India is Syria nor Pakistan is Turkey , the way Pakistan reacted after 24 hours shows a lot . Let me say one thing , if its a message to Pakistani establishment then they know why it happened .

If its like incompetence , then I am not sure who is more incompetent a country which plays with missiles or a country which reacts after 24 hours after the act of war . How can a missile end up so close to Pakistani Airforce stations .

 

[crixus]

@T-123456 he is ex NAval chief

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502306114284646403

 

[TR_123456]

To be honest neither India is Syria nor Pakistan is Turkey , the way Pakistan reacted after 24 hours shows a lot . Let me say one thing , if its a message to Pakistani establishment then they know why it happened .

If its like incompetence , then I am not sure who is more incompetent a country which plays with missiles or a country which reacts after 24 hours after the act of war . How can a missile end up so close to Pakistani Airforce stations .

If this was a message then what kind of message was it,they dont even react.
What you need to do is call it what is,imcompetence.
What you shouldnt do is act like it was on purpose,dont try to twist it.
You cant blame others,own it.
Its not a video game.

 

[TR_123456]

@T-123456 he is ex NAval chief

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502306114284646403

So,it was an act of war?

 

[Nilgiri]

What you shouldnt do is act like it was on purpose,dont try to twist it.

So,it was an act of war?

I will explore it in more detail a bit later.

It was on purpose, and it involved a "dark" payload for signal gathering IMO.

The incompetence here was a failure in the system itself (brahmos does fail from time to time) at some point after launch....whatever caused the veering towards the other side. When was self-destruct engaged etc (esp of the payload) is not known (nor the actual flight track)....just the debris landed where it did.

The Americans and Soviets did this quite frequently in various ways (esp before SALT and START, but they continued in various ways after it).... to test radar pattern response times to wargame more effectively.

Their contexts are very different (esp the Soviets) given the strategic depth of the radars involved....to detect which spots might need penetration aid, extra anti-radiation interdiction etc.

It's not an act of war, Pakistan probably already knows these activities are being run on Indian side.

That stuff is classified intel by both sides.

Anyway I will give a better basis to what I think went on (and went wrong) here a bit later.

 

[Nilgiri]

This.

The caveat with that, was if its just regular test. Those are done in different way from pokhran test range (in this vicinity) for a reason. They would not run regular flight or system tests like this (wherever it was launched from and going to)... I suspect this was something else....the key is what was contained in the "warhead"....and we wont know that.

Pakistan simply said there's no warhead.....I believe it was destroyed mid-air before landing after the telemetry came in indicating so.

 

[Zapper]

So,it was an act of war?

The equation between India & pak is that neither of us consider such incidents (no loss of life or critical property) unless one of us owns up to it that the actions were deliberate like that of Balakot

Reason being we always have cross-border skirmishes, not just small arms but heavy artillery, ATGMs, sniper teams taking down men stationed at the outposts etc but most of this is limited to LoC. There are a lot of backchannels at work which common folks aren't aware of and I'm sure we used such hotline to inform em of the same

 

[Jackdaws]

Someone needs to get fired.

1. The other side could have mistook it for a launch and fired a weapon in retaliation - armed with a warhead.

2. Nowhere has India said it is Brahmos. Could it be another missile?

 

[crixus]

Someone needs to get fired.

1. The other side could have mistook it for a launch and fired a weapon in retaliation - armed with a warhead.

2. Nowhere has India said it is Brahmos. Could it be another missile?

The wreckage is of Brahmos :

Ananth Technologies :

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1169860445856882688

 

[RogerRanger]

Just glad it didn't have a nuke on the end of it.

 

[Batman22]

Just glad it didn't have a nuke on the end of it.

Brahmos aren't nuke tipped unless they are with SFC , this one was just misfired (as per official claim ) , or was fired to test waters , another possibility is just take out a HVT , but if we say we used a missile to target a threat in Pakistan then it would raise suspicion , if it was a threat ,it couldn't be a equipment as it would require a warhead to take it out , must be a group of people , it won't require a warhead for that ,shear kinetic energy is enough that brahmos possess .

The target could be some high value terrorist , that's why Pakistan asked for explanation and not much uproar

 

[Paro]

cpl days back, some gunmen shot dead one of the IC-814 hijackers too....the same MC that slit that guys throat

IC-814 hijacker Mistry Zahoor Ibrahim shot dead in Karachi: Reports

Ibrahim was shot by two unidentified attackers inside a furniture store in Karachi's Akbar Colony. He was living under the alias of Zahid Akhund and was the owner of Crescent Furniture.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

What i find interesting is it happened on the eve of election results all across India. So I believe there could be messaging involved as we see terror cells being busted during elections every year. If it happened a day later or whenever I wouldn't take it that seriously e

But i do have a simulation theory where the launch could be accidental. But you have to be super unlucky to pull that off.

So,it was an act of war?

Well you don’t understand the dynamics btw Ind Pak obviously.

Sending drones and terrorists everyday isn't considered act or war already?

Just glad it didn't have a nuke on the end of it.

Dont fall for BS online. There is a clear classification btw strategic and conventional capabilities among all major nuclear powers. Except Pakistan ofcourse.

Brahmos is classified as a conventional weapon along with other range of IRBMs. SFC use an entirely different set of rockets for strategic use which aren’t used by either of the three services.

 

[Joe Shearer]

A Brahmos missile was accidentally fired from Sirsa Air Base and landed on Pakistani soil, at the town of Mian Channu.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501951149661769736

Sent from Mail for Windows

 

[Jackdaws]

There exists a thread for this.

 

[SavageKing456]

If this was a message then what kind of message was it,they dont even react.
What you need to do is call it what is,imcompetence.
What you shouldnt do is act like it was on purpose,dont try to twist it.
You cant blame others,own it.
Its not a video game.

I doubt that it's even accidental
Because even if missle was fired
We had enough time to self destruct it before it reaches Pakistan

 

[TR_123456]

I doubt that it's even accidental
Because even if missle was fired
We had enough time to self destruct it before it reaches Pakistan

So,what do we call it?
@Nilgiri you done with the research yet?