India India - Pakistan Relations

[crixus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502318532570140679

 

[crixus]

So,what do we call it?
@Nilgiri you done with the research yet?

T , I think you missed one more imp. details , this incident happened on the day of counting and believe me the counting day is just counting for media and people no other news is imp. . Once the counting was over Indian govt put some stupid statemente which no one believes so it no news in India .

I am still wondering what was the purpose behind it , then chances of being launched by mistake are minimal

 

[Zapper]

Interesting thread

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502295743545364482

 

[Paro]

Interesting thread

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502295743545364482

Check discord.

Missile accidentally fired ‘during inspection’ at secret IAF base, Pakistan ‘didn’t track’

It’s understood that missile was following correct trajectory, didn’t veer off course, contrary to Pakistani claims, and wasn’t part of an actual firing test.

theprint.in

 

[Jackdaws]

Imagine if the shoe was on the other foot. Now imagine Arnab.

 

[HTurk]

Seems really stupid to be doing these tests so close to border if its just a flat out normie test or sim....that makes no sense to me tbh, these are not cheap systems without requisite CnC robustness and SOP (that would follow NOTAM and enough distance away...generally indian ocean tests).

I wonder if there was a payload with ELINT module on it to pick up what certain engagement patterns even are from other side (at this speed). Such a thing would be discreet and maybe even somewhat routine...you run parallel to the border hug and snoop....build up database to wargame better, in a low enough RCS package with this supersonic velocity too.

This time there was a mishap or glitch at end that caused it to veer....thankfully it got completely destroyed and also there was no civilian casualties.

India should "run" its investigation etc.... and pay relevant compensation for the ground damage it did on Pakistan side.

I absolutely agree with your posting. India is not a small country. Why test the missile in proximity to the Pakistani border? It doesn't make sense.
Pakistan is still a nuclear power no matter how conventionally superior India is. This is dangerous and reckless behavior.

On top of that, accidents like this make foreigners like me doubt the professionalism of the Indian industrial-military-complex. Somebody needs to get fired over this issue.

 

[HTurk]

Check discord.

Missile accidentally fired ‘during inspection’ at secret IAF base, Pakistan ‘didn’t track’

It’s understood that missile was following correct trajectory, didn’t veer off course, contrary to Pakistani claims, and wasn’t part of an actual firing test.

theprint.in

I highly doubt that the Indian government is striving to start a war - let alone a nuclear war - in the current international conjuncture. Also, history books would mark India as the aggressor who started a useless war in a time of global crisis. You would be considered a second Russia, a big country who assaults his neighboring country.

It all doesn't add up. The missile incident was most certainly just a mistake.

 

[Paro]

I highly doubt that the Indian government is striving to start a war - let alone a nuclear war - in the current international conjuncture. Also, history books would mark India as the aggressor who started a useless war in a time of global crisis. You would be considered a second Russia, a big country who assaults his neighboring country.

It all doesn't add up. The missile incident was most certainly just a mistake.

It was a training missile (at least so far) so I too consider it to be a misfire during training.

Anyway, a missile wouldn't trigger a war, one country is striving to get its industry back to work the other waiting for a passerby to lend some foreign exchange. Neither wants to fight a war.

 

[HTurk]

It was a training missile (at least so far) so I too consider it to be a misfire during training.

Why is the test conducted in such close distance to the internationally recognized border?

 

[Paro]

Why is the test conducted in such close distance to the internationally recognized border?

Probably it wasn't an actual test. Maybe they were just performing a cold simulation where they run through all the steps and it got fired accidentally. The crew is evaluated time to time on test units (dummy missile launchers).

all the tests are done on the east coast always.

we don't know exactly what happened that triggered but we now know it was due to a test launcher.

 

[Nilgiri]

Someone needs to get fired.

Don't hold your breath.... I didn't see much accountability (at least openly) over the IFF Mi-17 friendly fire incident during the PAF strike post balakot.

 

[Nilgiri]

So,what do we call it?
@Nilgiri you done with the research yet?

X-craft theory (after I mused) starts bringing up more questions rather than answering them...not to mention it has its core set of incompetencies/risks involved/baked in.

It seems redundant for me to continue with my (speculative) theory of an X-craft (Sigint or otherwise) if this is what will be doubled down on:

Missile accidentally fired ‘during inspection’ at secret IAF base, Pakistan ‘didn’t track’

It’s understood that missile was following correct trajectory, didn’t veer off course, contrary to Pakistani claims, and wasn’t part of an actual firing test.

theprint.in

i.e a simulation test with a final incompetency in (say) some safety not being at position it should be...or a glitch developed there.

i.e the procedures involved in testing the fuses and circuitry (with old or new protocols) with unarmed device without firing it....i.e a cold test.

These drills are done from time to time....and changing them to accomodate new CnC procedure insertion (like his is claiming without giving away much) would be done with dummy warhead.

This is about as neatly as possible (with incompetency precisely contained) that India could put out there.

Still incompetent as to why a border unit was chosen instead of doing this thoroughly at ITR Chandipur first....or if has already been proven CnC change....how this safety issue (human error) or glitch came about in this case.


=========================================================

BTW The largest drills one can see (in documentaries and cpl movies) on the instrumentation and safety panel involve US SSBNs....testing the procedure, drill and circuitry etc.

The earliest movie that hired consultants and did the guesswork the best in another delivery option was kubrick with the strangelove movie. The USAF was actually apparently quite concerned how close the movie came to what the B-52 instrumentation and safety panel and procedures actually look like.

 

[Nilgiri]

The other incompetency I can think of with this chain of events....is why wasn't there a strong enough self-destruct if you already have a dummy warhead...on such "blank" rounds effectively. i.e if something actually does get launched, you need a way to destroy it onboard ASAP over safe area alloted for that nearby.

 

[Paro]

X-craft theory (after I mused) starts bringing up more questions rather than answering them...not to mention it has its core set of incompetencies/risks involved/baked in.

It seems redundant for me to continue with my (speculative) theory of an X-craft (Sigint or otherwise) if this is what will be doubled down on:

Missile accidentally fired ‘during inspection’ at secret IAF base, Pakistan ‘didn’t track’

It’s understood that missile was following correct trajectory, didn’t veer off course, contrary to Pakistani claims, and wasn’t part of an actual firing test.

theprint.in

i.e a simulation test with a final incompetency in (say) some safety not being at position it should be...or a glitch developed there.

i.e the procedures involved in testing the fuses and circuitry (with old or new protocols) with unarmed device without firing it....i.e a cold test.

These drills are done from time to time....and changing them to accomodate new CnC procedure insertion (like his is claiming without giving away much) would be done with dummy warhead.

This is about as neatly as possible (with incompetency precisely contained) that India could put out there.

Still incompetent as to why a border unit was chosen instead of doing this thoroughly at ITR Chandipur first....or if has already been proven CnC change....how this safety issue (human error) or glitch came about in this case.


=========================================================

BTW The largest drills one can see (in documentaries and cpl movies) on the instrumentation and safety panel involve US SSBNs....testing the procedure, drill and circuitry etc.

The earliest movie that hired consultants and did the guesswork the best in another delivery option was kubrick with the strangelove movie. The USAF was actually apparently quite concerned how close the movie came to what the B-52 instrumentation and safety panel and procedures actually look like.

. damn

 

[Anmdt]

X-craft theory (after I mused) starts bringing up more questions rather than answering them...not to mention it has its core set of incompetencies/risks involved/baked in.

It seems redundant for me to continue with my (speculative) theory of an X-craft (Sigint or otherwise) if this is what will be doubled down on:

Missile accidentally fired ‘during inspection’ at secret IAF base, Pakistan ‘didn’t track’

It’s understood that missile was following correct trajectory, didn’t veer off course, contrary to Pakistani claims, and wasn’t part of an actual firing test.

theprint.in

i.e a simulation test with a final incompetency in (say) some safety not being at position it should be...or a glitch developed there.

i.e the procedures involved in testing the fuses and circuitry (with old or new protocols) with unarmed device without firing it....i.e a cold test.

These drills are done from time to time....and changing them to accomodate new CnC procedure insertion (like his is claiming without giving away much) would be done with dummy warhead.

This is about as neatly as possible (with incompetency precisely contained) that India could put out there.

Still incompetent as to why a border unit was chosen instead of doing this thoroughly at ITR Chandipur first....or if has already been proven CnC change....how this safety issue (human error) or glitch came about in this case.


=========================================================

BTW The largest drills one can see (in documentaries and cpl movies) on the instrumentation and safety panel involve US SSBNs....testing the procedure, drill and circuitry etc.

The earliest movie that hired consultants and did the guesswork the best in another delivery option was kubrick with the strangelove movie. The USAF was actually apparently quite concerned how close the movie came to what the B-52 instrumentation and safety panel and procedures actually look like.

Imo, it seems like the missile has concluded the launch sequence safely and launched as supposed to, thus not activated its self-detonation.

So the missile is fired 'accidentally' but i doubt the technical malfunction part as claimed, this rather looks like a practical malfunction.

I am not familiar with test/training procedures of the missiles that far, but a bit of the experience from the activities carried out on the ships and thinking logically;
there should have been a step involved in between of the actual steps, to prevent latest sequence taking place to launch the missile even by a technical malfunction at the final switch.

And chances of the responsible person forgetting to introduce that blocking mechanism and final switch activating on its own via a simple malfunction is a bit a low. If that has happened i would still expect a self-detonation.

Then it could be; both they have forgotten the blocking, then concluded all the necessary steps and hit on the launch button as planned for the training? This makes a bit more sense but again does this kind of training require them to hit that big red button at the very end?

What comes to my mind first; either a brake check on the air defenses - the incident is immediately reported via redline and pakistan was notified, thus the situation is not escalated-. The second one is the same, with some sigint equipment placed in the missile as you have already considered.

 

[Anmdt]

The other incompetency I can think of with this chain of events....is why wasn't there a strong enough self-destruct if you already have a dummy warhead...on such "blank" rounds effectively. i.e if something actually does get launched, you need a way to destroy it onboard ASAP over safe area alloted for that nearby.

Does a self-destruct always rely on the warhead?
The missile can also divert itself towards a pre-defined safe area like some guided missiles act when they lose the guidance-track.

 

[Nilgiri]

Does a self-destruct always rely on the warhead?
The missile can also divert itself towards a pre-defined safe area like some guided missiles act when they lose the guidance-track.

They will have to revisit everything and thoroughly do a failure analysis.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The schematic.

 

[Nilgiri]

. damn

I remember watching this movie for the first time in college 2nd year I think.... I got hooked on kubrick after that....

This is the part that came uncannily close for the USAF:

This stuff was all super classified back then as SAC was still the major deterrent the US had....till way more ICBMs and SSBNs came online in the 70s onwards.

 

[Nilgiri]

Oops!

Looked for one, couldn't find one and blundered in.

Have a read of the full thread Joe and tell us what you think.