India Indian Economy + Infra Archive

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490583248581251072

 

[Indos]

@Jackdaws @Paro @Indos @crixus @Rajaraja Chola et al.

When you have some time these 30 minutes are well spent watching this..... as Indian economy context, current and future are summarised quite eloquently (with strong evidence) by this gentleman.

It summarises many hours and days of reading about it across a year etc.

IMO, we need this 2022 and 2023 to be able to see clearer about who win and who lost after the Covid 19 pandemic struct the world economy. I would say countries who has large tourism sector like Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, will be the hardest hit by the Pandemic.

I also would say country who depends on domestic demand will have better cushion to deal with the pandemic, it is in condition the people are quite discipline in wearing mask and there is no tight curb on people movement and economic activity.

Based on constant GDP price, Indonesia GDP has already been a bit a head compared to 2019 GDP, I am talking about real GDP for 2021 period. For 2022 we will see further development for our Covid case and how our government will respond to our third wave infection. This period also shows the strength of health sector of each nation and how this sector has become so critical to allow economy to run despite large quantity of Covid 19 infection going on.

Nation with good digital economy ( digital penetration and home grown enterprises tapping the market ) will also benefit from this Covid 19 infection wave. It helps them to grow faster. The ability of any nation to keep inflation rate low in the country and its currency strength is also very crucial, particularly due to The Fed tapering policy and higher energy prices that will likely last quite long, this then will result on how much each country Central Bank hike the interest rate, this interest rate increase then will be transmitted to the economy growth as pushing down factor.

We will see first Quarter of 2022 to be able to project what will likely happen for entire 2022. I would say long term GDP projection has less accuracy now to determine any country economic fate for the next 5 years, let alone 10 years. Just for example, Yesterday our statistic body stated our actual GDP growth for entire 2021 period (Jan-December) is 3,69 percent, where IMF projection has 0.4 % deviation at 3.2 percent. This show a bit difficult to project the economic growth, even for just next 3 month as IMF projection come out in November 2021.

The GDP growth should be better projected based on range instead of definite rate for this time period due to this period -has a lot of uncertainty, particularly related to Covid 19 pandemic and possible of semi-lockdown policy imposed by government. I say semi lockdown because lock down policy has already been taken out due to higher vaccination rate compared to 2021 period and less severe Omicron variant who are now dominating infection in many countries, including in Indonesia.

 

[Rajendra Chola]

@Jackdaws @Paro @Indos @crixus @Rajaraja Chola et al.

When you have some time these 30 minutes are well spent watching this..... as Indian economy context, current and future are summarised quite eloquently (with strong evidence) by this gentleman.

It summarises many hours and days of reading about it across a year etc.

Haven't gone through it. But Covid came at the worst time possible. And a reason why fingers are being pointed at Wuhan lab. Companies were actually starting to relocate. Mostly to Vietnam though. I have had this discussion with you before. For the first time, India was even listed as an option for these companies moving their supply chain away, though Vietnam was emerging as an runaway winner of the trade war with India a distant second with competition from Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.

Covid put a full stop to the trade war and such activities. Companies have stopped moving around. It's not possible to shift to another country cos Engineers were unable to travel. And China was /is able to retain the foreign Industry.

So how faster would we develop? I don't know. But 8% is not enough. The govt had enough time to work on issues.

 

[Nilgiri]

IMO, we need this 2022 and 2023 to be able to see clearer about who win and who lost after the Covid 19 pandemic struct the world economy. I would say countries who has large tourism sector like Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, will be the hardest hit by the Pandemic.

I also would say country who depends on domestic demand will have better cushion to deal with the pandemic, it is in condition the people are quite discipline in wearing mask and there is no tight curb on people movement and economic activity.

Based on constant GDP price, Indonesia GDP has already been a bit a head compared to 2019 GDP, I am talking about real GDP for 2021 period. For 2022 we will see further development for our Covid case and how our government will respond to our third wave infection. This period also shows the strength of health sector of each nation and how this sector has become so critical to allow economy to run despite large quantity of Covid 19 infection going on.

Nation with good digital economy ( digital penetration and home grown enterprises tapping the market ) will also benefit from this Covid 19 infection wave. It helps them to grow faster. The ability of any nation to keep inflation rate low in the country and its currency strength is also very crucial, particularly due to The Fed tapering policy and higher energy prices that will likely last quite long, this then will result on how much each country Central Bank hike the interest rate, this interest rate increase then will be transmitted to the economy growth as pushing down factor.

We will see first Quarter of 2022 to be able to project what will likely happen for entire 2022. I would say long term GDP projection has less accuracy now to determine any country economic fate for the next 5 years, let alone 10 years. Just for example, Yesterday our statistic body stated our actual GDP growth for entire 2021 period (Jan-December) is 3,69 percent, where IMF projection has 0.4 % deviation at 3.2 percent. This show a bit difficult to project the economic growth, even for just next 3 month as IMF projection come out in November 2021.

The GDP growth should be better projected based on range instead of definite rate for this time period due to this period -has a lot of uncertainty, particularly related to Covid 19 pandemic and possible of semi-lockdown policy imposed by government. I say semi lockdown because lock down policy has already been taken out due to higher vaccination rate compared to 2021 period and less severe Omicron variant who are now dominating infection in many countries, including in Indonesia.

Haven't gone through it. But Covid came at the worst time possible. And a reason why fingers are being pointed at Wuhan lab. Companies were actually starting to relocate. Mostly to Vietnam though. I have had this discussion with you before. For the first time, India was even listed as an option for these companies moving their supply chain away, though Vietnam was emerging as an runaway winner of the trade war with India a distant second with competition from Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.

Covid put a full stop to the trade war and such activities. Companies have stopped moving around. It's not possible to shift to another country cos Engineers were unable to travel. And China was /is able to retain the foreign Industry.

So how faster would we develop? I don't know. But 8% is not enough. The govt had enough time to work on issues.

Pity the video calls itself that title in somewhat clickbait way (the "gains" from covid etc), because actually most of the content is larger contextual topic than that.

The survey can be found here:

Economic Survey

www.indiabudget.gov.in

The HF indicator summary at the start (especially the GST and UPI transaction data) are what are giving some underlying evidence to new strengths developing in Indian economy now.

 

[Nilgiri]

 

[Huelague]

Air India has a new CEO?

 

[Nilgiri]

Air India has a new CEO?

Yes, there is a separate thread about it currently:

India - 10 Facts About Ilker Ayci , The New CEO Of Air India

10 Facts About Ilker Ayci, The New CEO Of Air India Ilker Ayci, the former Turkish Airlines Chairman, was appointed the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Air India on Monday All IndiaEdited by NDTV NewsdeskUpdated: February 14, 2022 5:51 pm IST by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored...

defencehub.live

 

[Nilgiri]

From "Suraj" twitter.... ( https://twitter.com/surajbrf )

 

[Nilgiri]

Airbus-Tata Aircraft Manufacturing Facility Likely In Gujarat

Dholera set to host India’s first full spectrum aerospace complex in the private sector , , airbus, tata, dholera, gujarat, C-295, make in india, delhi-mumbai industrial corridor

www.businessworld.in

India’s first private sector aircraft manufacturing facility and its associated industrial ecosystem are likely to be located at the Dholera Special Investment Region in Gujarat, BW Businessworld has learnt from informed sources.

Dholera is being developed as a prominent node on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, about 100 km south-west of Ahmedabad.

Airbus is to manufacture 40 C-295MW military transport in India in partnership with an Indian consortium led by Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) under a $2.8 Billion contract signed with India’s Ministry of Defence in September 2021.

This will be the first full spectrum ‘Make in India’ aerospace programme in the private sector involving development of a complete industrial ecosystem from manufacture to assembly, test and qualification to delivery and maintenance over the complete life cycle of the aircraft.

A concurrent offsets contract obligates Airbus Defence & Space to source equipment and systems worth 30 per cent of the value of the C-295MW contract from Indian partners. The manufacturing facilities of the Indian offsets partners are also likely to be co-located at Dholera.

This complex could be the centrepiece of the Dholera Special Investment Region’s Aviation Zone and MRO Hub planned adjacent to an in-the-works greenfield international airport. Besides manufacturing units, the plan for the Aviation Zone includes an aviation academy, flight training institute and MRO facilities for airframes, engines and C&D checks.

“The C295MW programme will see Airbus bring its complete bouquet of world-class aircraft manufacturing and servicing to India in collaboration with our industrial partners, including the Tatas and leading defence public sector units such as Bharat Electronics Ltd. and Bharat Dynamics Ltd, apart from private Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises,” a joint statement issued by Airbus and TASL released after the signing of the contract had added.

This private sector aircraft manufacturing complex ending the long-running monopoly of the public sector behemoth, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

The Dholera airport will have two runways of 4,000 metres and 2,910 metres respectively. These would be essential to the flight-testing facility for the Airbus-Tata complex. Based upon the project reports prepared by the Airports Authority of India and the Japan International Cooperation Agency, the Ministry of Defence has issued a No-Objection certificate for the construction of an international airport. An in-principle approval has been given by the Ministry of Civil Aviation. Environment clearance for the project has been obtained from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change.

A 1,426-acre land parcel at Navagam village has been reserved for the Dholera airport, declared an ‘Early Bird Project’ by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor Development Corporation and the Government of Gujarat.

Under the Buy and Make (Global) contract with Airbus, the first lot of 16 C-295MW aircraft will be delivered in a fly-away condition from the Airbus assembly line in Seville, Spain within four years. The subsequent lot of 40 aircraft will be manufactured, assembled and tested at the Indian assembly line.

All 56 aircraft are to be delivered to the Indian Air Force in 10 years. The aircraft will be equipped with an electronic warfare suite developed indigenously in India.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Tata Advanced Systems Limited Sukaran Singh termed the deal as a big moment for the Make in India agenda. “This is a moment of pride for Tatas and a milestone for the Indian military manufacturing ecosystem. For the first time, an Indian private company will be wholly manufacturing an aircraft in India. This endeavour demonstrates Tata Advanced Systems’ capabilities as a defence manufacturer to build globally competitive complex platforms in India," Singh had stated after the signing of the contract.

CEO of Airbus Defence and Space Michael Schoellhorn said the Indian contract will enlarge the footprint of the C-295 both operationally as well as industrially. “This contract will support the further development of India’s aerospace ecosystem, bringing investment and 15,000 skilled direct jobs and 10,000 indirect positions over the coming 10 years,” he said in a statement.

The C-295MW will replace the ageing and obsolete Avro-748 fleet of the IAF. It is a tactical airlifter in the 5-to-10-ton category which can land on short or unprepared airstrips. It has a proven capacity to airlift up to 71 troops or 50 paratroopers and carry logistical loads to locations that are not accessible to heavier aircraft. The C-295MW can perform special missions as well as disaster relief and maritime patrol duties and carry out medical evacuations.

“After completion of the delivery, the subsequent aircraft manufactured in India can be exported to countries which are cleared by the Government of India,” the Ministry of Defence stated.

 

[Rajendra Chola]

Better to develop it near Bangalore or Hyderabad. With aerospace already developed to an extent in that region, it makes easy for talents to switch companies and for Tata to get the best talents themselves. Especially when Indian industry with regards to bigger aircraft manufacturing is nascent at best.

 

[Nilgiri]

Better to develop it near Bangalore or Hyderabad. With aerospace already developed to an extent in that region, it makes easy for talents to switch companies and for Tata to get the best talents themselves. Especially when Indian industry with regards to bigger aircraft manufacturing is nascent at best.

Its early days everywhere given India's size and needs. They might as well seed things now in the GJ-BOM-Pune-Nashik area for aerospace....so that down the line there is a 3rd ecosystem area past HYD and BLR.

 

[Nilgiri]

After free trade pact, 80% of exports to UAE to be duty free

The country would be able to export textiles worth an additional $2 billion in the next two years and treble the plastics exports to the UAE under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which the two sides will sign on Friday, said people aware of the matter.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Banking sector in pink of health, credit growth to pick up: Ind-Ra

The rating agency expects capital expenditure to rise to has to about Rs 7 lakh crore each fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2023 up from Rs 5.5 lakh crore achieved in fiscal 2021 on the back of a demand ramp-up by end-FY22 and a further pick-up in FY23 with an economic recovery.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Rajendra Chola]

After free trade pact, 80% of exports to UAE to be duty free

The country would be able to export textiles worth an additional $2 billion in the next two years and treble the plastics exports to the UAE under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which the two sides will sign on Friday, said people aware of the matter.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Banking sector in pink of health, credit growth to pick up: Ind-Ra

The rating agency expects capital expenditure to rise to has to about Rs 7 lakh crore each fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2023 up from Rs 5.5 lakh crore achieved in fiscal 2021 on the back of a demand ramp-up by end-FY22 and a further pick-up in FY23 with an economic recovery.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

This needs a new thread for some days. It's highly imported especially with regards to our labour intensive manufacturing sector. Tariff is going down to 5% for some and zero for some.

Also covers electronics, apparel (some positive news for apparel after years), steel etc. Services are set to be compete. Labour agreement is also in the works.

This is similar approach tried out by India with UK, Australia etc. Our apparel, yarn, textiles need to touch 100B so people can be employed. So for electronics as well.

 

[Nilgiri]

This needs a new thread for some days. It's highly imported especially with regards to our labour intensive manufacturing sector. Tariff is going down to 5% for some and zero for some.

Also covers electronics, apparel (some positive news for apparel after years), steel etc. Services are set to be compete. Labour agreement is also in the works.

This is similar approach tried out by India with UK, Australia etc. Our apparel, yarn, textiles need to touch 100B so people can be employed. So for electronics as well.

They are trying to get the PLI to address the capital + labour issues (inertia and resistance obstacles there externally and internally) for these manufacturing sectors like RMG and electronics.

The (assumed to be well crafted) trade deals are cherry on top to help with that (externally)...but really India's labour wages are low enough that there is huge things to be done in addressing those issues at home in fair and balanced way....and not need trade deal argument to enter picture at all.

PLI seems to be a quick-fix approach, we have to wait and see what actually bears out from it.....but it has one thing going for it in capital-transfer by such schemes....as there is heavy inertia with capital (PRC exploits this quite well) once you get the foot into the door early.

 

[Paro]

Gujarat is due to Modi politics. If you put his home state politics aside it doesn't make sense, every contractor and OMEs Aerospace is based out of Hyd and Bangalore because these cities have the skillset. Even the Nasik facility has most of its contractors in hyd.

 

[Paro]

Semiconductors

Semicon India takes a step forward with Acceptance of Applications for Semiconductor and Display Fabs

In order to widen and deepen the electronic manufacturing and ensure development of a robust and s

pib.gov.in

 

[Nauman Ahmed Patel]

Gujarat is due to Modi politics. If you put his home state politics aside it doesn't make sense, every contractor and OMEs Aerospace is based out of Hyd and Bangalore because these cities have the skillset. Even the Nasik facility has most of its contractors in hyd.

DMIC was not started by Modi, it was by Congress and Dholera is a DMIC node, we need to promote DMIC as well instead of developing/investing too much on existing areas.

 

[Nilgiri]

Let us see how this bears out @Rajaraja Chola et al.

Vedanta charts $8 billion chip manufacturing plan via Foxconn JV

The company will target smartphones and electronics with the 28-nanometre (nm) fab and look at 70-80% domestic market, while the rest will be exported.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Intel-owned Tower Semiconductor's chip-making plan in India back on table

In September 2021, the company had threatened to pull the plug on its plan to set up a facility in India

www.business-standard.com

 

[Rajendra Chola]

Let us see how this bears out @Rajaraja Chola et al.

Vedanta charts $8 billion chip manufacturing plan via Foxconn JV

The company will target smartphones and electronics with the 28-nanometre (nm) fab and look at 70-80% domestic market, while the rest will be exported.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Intel-owned Tower Semiconductor's chip-making plan in India back on table

In September 2021, the company had threatened to pull the plug on its plan to set up a facility in India

www.business-standard.com

Going to give my oft repeated response. "Will believe it when I see it. "

 

[Nilgiri]

Going to give my oft repeated response. "Will believe it when I see it. "

have we seen it reach this stage before though? Something seems different this time...but you are right, lets see.

Five proposals worth $20.5-billion to set up chip, display fabrication units

Vedanta Foxconn JV, IGSS Ventures and ISMC propose to set up electronic chip manufacturing plants with USD 13.6 billion investment and have sought support of USD 5.6 billion from the Centre under the Rs 76,000 crore Semicon India Programme.

indianexpress.com

Paro also posted the official release from IN govt a bit above.