India Indian Economy + Infra Archive

[Nilgiri]

Gadkari's portfolio won't change but I think but 10 years is too much

It is simply better to find more Gadkaris, develop them and make them bipartisan across all political spectrum in every state possible.

They are out there, plenty of them...but you need to take the time to find them and position them.

I dont like DMK in TN at all....I dont like Stalin or his dad...whole family.

But credit where credit is due....I give that on some of his team selection and they are executing lot of good infra projects.

That needs to be seen in more states in India rather than "politics first" emotion/ideology people get trapped into and parties taking advantage of that by offering nothing cold+hard+visible to take forward.

 

[Raptor]

Its not special because its long overdue....compounded by what covid cost us big time.

Too much latent heat with little place to go that will finally dissipate better and be channeled to sustain more.

The march in market cap to 4 trillion USD (i.e exceeding GDP) is a big indicator of the animal spirits being held back....that must be leveraged.

Base effect will have show effect till at most next fy
If we can manage same growth in fy23,fy24 then?

 

[Nilgiri]

Base effect will have show effect till at most next fy
If we can manage same growth in fy23,fy24 then?

It will be good start + noticeable improvement.

But really India should be growing at double digit real rate constantly for a block of 5 - 10 years now....in fact last decade itself.

We should have been at least 5 trillion nominal GDP by now....so high growth now of 8% - 9% is expected and average imo, as it is catch up kind of growth for what should have been accomplished already.

 

[Jackdaws]

Link

Xiaomi, Oppo face Rs 1,000 crore fine for I-T norms violations | India News - Times of India

India News: On December 21, the I-T department conducted country-wide search and seizure operations on certain foreign-controlled mobile communication and mobile

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Chinese mobile phone firms — Xiaomi and Oppo — face the prospect of being fined over Rs 1,000 crore for not complying with the regulatory mandate prescribed under the Income-tax Act for disclosure of transactions with associated enterprises.
On December 21, the I-T department conducted country-wide search and seizure operations on certain foreign-controlled mobile communication and mobile handset manufacturing companies, and people linked to them.
Several premises in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar, Rajasthan, Delhi and NCR were covered in the operation.
“The search revealed that two major companies have made remittance in the nature of royalty, to and on behalf of its group companies located abroad, which aggregates to over Rs 5,500 crore. The claim of such expenses does not seem to be appropriate in light of the facts and evidence gathered during the search,” the I-T department said without naming the Chinese mobile manufacturers but sources confirmed the names.
Xiaomi and Oppo did not comment on the issue.
“The search operation has also brought out the modus operandi of purchase of the components for manufacturing of mobile handsets. It is gathered that both these companies had not complied with the regulatory mandate prescribed under the Income-tax Act, 1961 for disclosure of transactions with associated enterprises. Such lapse makes them liable for penal action under the Income-tax Act, 1961, the quantum of which could be in the range of more than Rs 1,000 crore,” the tax department said, adding: “Evidence with regard to the inflation of expenses, payments on behalf of the associated enterprises, etc. have also been noticed

 

[Nilgiri]

We are already seeing lot of tech VC for example come to ASEAN (Indonesia, Vietnam) and India as result of US changing relationship with PRC (more than before).

Over next few years for example Indonesia should try double its market cap (to 1 trillion) if all things proceed well...by absorbing what PRC is rejecting and squashing now (due to its internal politics and worsening relationship with US/West).

This and other places I mention it, here is another example going on @Indos @Viva_vietnamm et al:

Particular targetting with more incentives locally:

Boosted by localisation, Indian electronics manufacturing sector to touch Rs 7 lakh cr next fiscal

The Meity has proposed a PLI scheme of about Rs 22,000 crore to promote wearables as well as enhance incentives for IT hardware manufacturers in the next financial year as it aims to increase electronics exports from India by 50 per cent.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Larger capital supply push:

U.S. Exchanges Eye Indian Tech And Energy As Chinese Companies Get The Boot

adhere to American accounting standards.

finance.yahoo.com

Bottom line: both exchanges are hoping to find ways to recruit more offerings from India, and also Indonesia. Those countries are obvious targets due to the sheer size of their populations (and economies). But already, Delhi-based software company Coforge is expected to list in the US next year (it already trades in India) and Bangalore-based education firm Byju is expected to list in a SPAC deal.

Still, the total addressable market for unicorns is relatively small outside China.

But smaller markets like Vietnam and Malaysia are expected to contribute to the uptick as well. There are only 80 private companies worth more than $1 billion in the Asia-Pacific region outside China, according to CB Insights.

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

This and other places I mention it, here is another example going on @Indos @Viva_vietnamm et al:

Particular targetting with more incentives locally:

Boosted by localisation, Indian electronics manufacturing sector to touch Rs 7 lakh cr next fiscal

The Meity has proposed a PLI scheme of about Rs 22,000 crore to promote wearables as well as enhance incentives for IT hardware manufacturers in the next financial year as it aims to increase electronics exports from India by 50 per cent.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Larger capital supply push:

U.S. Exchanges Eye Indian Tech And Energy As Chinese Companies Get The Boot

adhere to American accounting standards.

finance.yahoo.com

Bottom line: both exchanges are hoping to find ways to recruit more offerings from India, and also Indonesia. Those countries are obvious targets due to the sheer size of their populations (and economies). But already, Delhi-based software company Coforge is expected to list in the US next year (it already trades in India) and Bangalore-based education firm Byju is expected to list in a SPAC deal.

Still, the total addressable market for unicorns is relatively small outside China.

But smaller markets like Vietnam and Malaysia are expected to contribute to the uptick as well. There are only 80 private companies worth more than $1 billion in the Asia-Pacific region outside China, according to CB Insights.

It takes more time for companies and factories to gradually move out of China.

The US will not let China easily overtake them, so the trade war will get worse. However, in order to attract these companies and factories, we need to improve administrative procedures to be less troublesome. , reduce taxes , increase incentives . Otherwise, FDI enterprises will not wanna stay with us and transfer technology to us.

 

[Nilgiri]

India's chip design industry is a multi-billion dollar giant. As fabless chip companies emerged as a real force in the industry, the South Asian country captured more than its fair share of the gains.

For foreign multinationals, the country still offers amazing, high-class talents at a reasonable cost. But is that really such a good thing?

In this follow up video, we will take a look at India's rise in the chip design world, the current state of affairs, and the challenges the industry faces in the times ahead.

 

[Nilgiri]

Government asks Apple to make goods worth $50 billion/year in India - Times of India

India Business News: Top government officials had a high-level meeting with senior functionaries from Apple, where they asked the Tim Cook-led company to develop India as

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Is manufacturing the big thing to watch out for in 2022? Andrew Holland answers

“Indian economy is going to do well and I do not think anyone is trying to convince otherwise. Manufacturing across different sectors should do well.”

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Nilgiri]

 

[Nilgiri]

(Pakistan permanent residency initiative convo thread)

In mean time India must simply pay attention to itself....that 1 trillion in gross savings needs to double. The 100 - 200 billion offshored should be retained at about the same level or ratio.

It is imperative in couple years we get our capital formation back in the mid 30s and approach 40% again.

There are promising signs regarding this showing up this year already (surprisingly strong expansion in credit to MSME for example).
Exports will be their highest ever at close to 650 billion USD and look to reach a trillion dollars (along with forex) in a few years time.

It needs lot more of that. That is where our focus and interest must lie primarily....along with learning and implementing more from those ahead of us. Not behind us and stuck there.

Credit offtake from scheduled commercial banks to MSME sectors surge: CMIE

“The take-off is sudden and it is relatively big and the only set of enterprises to see an increase in bank loans are medium, micro and small enterprises,” CMIE said in its weekly analysis. According to CMIE, these enterprises have largely, or possibly almost entirely, benefited from the central...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Nilgiri]

What do members think/analyse of this? @Jackdaws @Milspec @Gessler @Zapper @crixus et al.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482551981000761348

=======================

More good signs happening:

$6 billion in 2 weeks: India Inc bonds a big hit overseas

A mix of borrowers including RIL, State Bank of India, JSW Infrastructure, Shriram Transport Finance and India Clean Energy have also managed to tighten their funding cost by 30-35 basis points from initial projections, after getting bids several times the offer size. A basis point is 0.01%.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

To give an idea of the ramp:

22 billion raised in whole 2021 (a new record)
vs 6 billion raised in 2 weeks of 2022.

 

[Jackdaws]

What do members think/analyse of this? @Jackdaws @Milspec @Gessler @Zapper @crixus et al.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482551981000761348

=======================

More good signs happening:

$6 billion in 2 weeks: India Inc bonds a big hit overseas

A mix of borrowers including RIL, State Bank of India, JSW Infrastructure, Shriram Transport Finance and India Clean Energy have also managed to tighten their funding cost by 30-35 basis points from initial projections, after getting bids several times the offer size. A basis point is 0.01%.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

To give an idea of the ramp:

22 billion raised in whole 2021 (a new record)
vs 6 billion raised in 2 weeks of 2022.

I myself have a start up in the Fin Tech space in the B2B segment.

Yes, lots of money floating around to raise funds. But start up fundamentals have changed now. It's about spend rather than returns. That's why you see absolute duds like WazirX and some random bit coin trading platforms outbid and get ad slots during prime tv muscling out the likes of Hindustan Lever even. Paytm was/is a unicorn. Stock has been taking a beating.

A couple 19 year olds who have started the dark store start up Zepto will have made a unicorn by the end of June most likely. Again, the model is a cash burn model but I can still see the value in grocery delivery.

At the end of the day, yes we will see many unicorns. They will be bought over by likes of Amazon or RIL or they will go public if they can. All this is good.

Some Govt policies have helped. Infra has certainly given a boost. But creating unicorns isn't creating wealth at all levels.

‘We’re being pushed into poverty’: Voices of women who took on the unicorn start-up Urban Company

Frustrated by rules they see as onerous, a bunch of beauticians are speaking up – and sometimes being heard.

scroll.in

Speak to the guys working at Uber, Ola, Zomato, Swiggy and all of them are being squeezed. Creating 1000 billionaires may be good for the economy overall based on notional valuation. But unless actual jobs which give a decent standard of living to the mass are created, this is not good.

India's Dec jobless rate hits four-month high of 7.9%-think tank

India's unemployment rate hit a four-month high in December, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed on Monday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Nilgiri]

I myself have a start up in the Fin Tech space in the B2B segment.

Yes, lots of money floating around to raise funds. But start up fundamentals have changed now. It's about spend rather than returns. That's why you see absolute duds like WazirX and some random bit coin trading platforms outbid and get ad slots during prime tv muscling out the likes of Hindustan Lever even. Paytm was/is a unicorn. Stock has been taking a beating.

A couple 19 year olds who have started the dark store start up Zepto will have made a unicorn by the end of June most likely. Again, the model is a cash burn model but I can still see the value in grocery delivery.

At the end of the day, yes we will see many unicorns. They will be bought over by likes of Amazon or RIL or they will go public if they can. All this is good.

Some Govt policies have helped. Infra has certainly given a boost. But creating unicorns isn't creating wealth at all levels.

‘We’re being pushed into poverty’: Voices of women who took on the unicorn start-up Urban Company

Frustrated by rules they see as onerous, a bunch of beauticians are speaking up – and sometimes being heard.

scroll.in

Speak to the guys working at Uber, Ola, Zomato, Swiggy and all of them are being squeezed. Creating 1000 billionaires may be good for the economy overall based on notional valuation. But unless actual jobs which give a decent standard of living to the mass are created, this is not good.

India's Dec jobless rate hits four-month high of 7.9%-think tank

India's unemployment rate hit a four-month high in December, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed on Monday.

www.reuters.com

I hope to see the PLI + MSME (and other support to MSME finally being given by govt esp after 2020 covid wrecking ball) channel some degree to address this now.

Its long overdue.....the use of india's market cap to leverage into better investment for the bulk of labour at hand.

 

[Nilgiri]

Staggering incentive relative to value addition @Saithan :

Apple, Samsung may make handsets worth $5 billion in FY22

PLI was the first and the largest in a series of such schemes launched by the government to make India a manufacturing hub, aiming to wean away manufacturers mainly from China.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Saithan]

Staggering incentive relative to value addition @Saithan :

Apple, Samsung may make handsets worth $5 billion in FY22

PLI was the first and the largest in a series of such schemes launched by the government to make India a manufacturing hub, aiming to wean away manufacturers mainly from China.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Interesting move. Giving incentives to companies that manufacture goods with high Value addition seems like a good move. Samsung has products on all price ranges so they don't seem to get any benefits from the incentive.

India with its population is an attractive market so I guess they have to make cost benefit analysis.

I shared an article in Turkish Economy about how the smartphone producers are actually just doing assembly work and call it Made in Turkey. I think the government should give real incentive to chip producers and gradually whittle it away like discount.

Help companies cash in, but in return establish a production that isn't easily removed as it'll be a cash cow (sorry for the pun).

 

[Nilgiri]

Interesting move. Giving incentives to companies that manufacture goods with high Value addition seems like a good move. Samsung has products on all price ranges so they don't seem to get any benefits from the incentive.

India with its population is an attractive market so I guess they have to make cost benefit analysis.

I shared an article in Turkish Economy about how the smartphone producers are actually just doing assembly work and call it Made in Turkey. I think the government should give real incentive to chip producers and gradually whittle it away like discount.

Help companies cash in, but in return establish a production that isn't easily removed as it'll be a cash cow (sorry for the pun).

Yah that article is why I tagged you here to show what I mean about the PLI....i.e incentives to scale the ecosystem past the final assembly stage.

Apple, Samsung give $5-bn thrust to India's local manufacturing scheme

Apple's contract manufacturers in India -- Foxconn and Wistron -- will avail the PLI incentives for the first time this year

www.business-standard.com

The important bit I have to look into later are the "manufacturing partners" of Apple and samsung....these are who bring in the rest of the component production around the final assembly plant

That is the only way you climb up the value addition tree for these products as far as I am aware.

It is not concept foreign to Turkey btw, as there is noted success on this model in the automotive sector (just like in India case previously) where you bring in the whole "hidden" ecosystem to support the final assembly (that tends to get way more attention and media etc)

But TR needs a good administration to do this in its own way regd electronics.

Electronics seems to just be more overall difficult to do this compared to automotive/mechanical.

It seem to need lot more large + focused array of technocratic bureaucrats.

A bit for @Viva_vietnamm from article

It (Apple) is reportedly ramping up production of iPhones, iPads, Macs, and other devices in India and Vietnam to end its dependence on China.

 

[Milspec]

What do members think/analyse of this? @Jackdaws @Milspec @Gessler @Zapper @crixus et al.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482551981000761348

=======================

More good signs happening:

$6 billion in 2 weeks: India Inc bonds a big hit overseas

A mix of borrowers including RIL, State Bank of India, JSW Infrastructure, Shriram Transport Finance and India Clean Energy have also managed to tighten their funding cost by 30-35 basis points from initial projections, after getting bids several times the offer size. A basis point is 0.01%.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

To give an idea of the ramp:

22 billion raised in whole 2021 (a new record)
vs 6 billion raised in 2 weeks of 2022.

I am still not sure about the fintech space as of yet, I would need more time to see how the space pans out.

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

Yah that article is why I tagged you here to show what I mean about the PLI....i.e incentives to scale the ecosystem past the final assembly stage.

Apple, Samsung give $5-bn thrust to India's local manufacturing scheme

Apple's contract manufacturers in India -- Foxconn and Wistron -- will avail the PLI incentives for the first time this year

www.business-standard.com

The important bit I have to look into later are the "manufacturing partners" of Apple and samsung....these are who bring in the rest of the component production around the final assembly plant

That is the only way you climb up the value addition tree for these products as far as I am aware.

It is not concept foreign to Turkey btw, as there is noted success on this model in the automotive sector (just like in India case previously) where you bring in the whole "hidden" ecosystem to support the final assembly (that tends to get way more attention and media etc)

But TR needs a good administration to do this in its own way regd electronics.

Electronics seems to just be more overall difficult to do this compared to automotive/mechanical.

It seem to need lot more large + focused array of technocratic bureaucrats.

A bit for @Viva_vietnamm from article

It (Apple) is reportedly ramping up production of iPhones, iPads, Macs, and other devices in India and Vietnam to end its dependence on China.

CN failed to control Covid without locking down the cities bcs they dont have mRNA vaccines, so everyone can see a high risk if they keep manufacturing everything in CN. (not mentioning US_CN trade war is still getting worse)

The countries like India, VN which can have 2 Pfizer shots or another mRNA vaccines for workers will have great advantage to attract more investors :

 

[Nilgiri]

Some interesting bits here about the transmittance time of reforms....

The next chunk of years will be interesting to see regarding validation of the earlier reforms done by Modi Admin...given they are not instantaneous effect.

This can be part of why we see lot of animal spirits aligning together in Indian economy (at least vertically again).

 

[Nilgiri]

Coming along nicely @Jackdaws ? :

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485345116437217280