Indonesia Indonesian Air Force, Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU)

[joedhie2k]

we supposed to have KFX as big time fighter... but.. but..but...but..

 

[FPXAllen]

Alright, this is getting interesting.

US fighter purchases ALWAYS includes weaponry. The US sells them as packages, very rarely do they sell them as just the airframes.

I'm just curious here. Suppose our MoD change their mind and switch to the F-16V in sufficiently large quantity. What kind of weapons other than Sidewinder and AMRAAM that they'll likely offer as a package? Does it also depends on what the customer wants?

I ask this because while I don't know what kind of weaponries are included in the Rafale deal, but I do think that we need a lot more than what we currently have (e.g. Maverick missiles, LGB, dumb bombs & rockets). Considering that we also need some kind of maritime and deep strike capability, we may also need air launched AShM as well as anti-radiation and stand off missiles other than what we currently have with our Sukhoi fighters.

All in all, while I would like to see our air force flying F-15EX and Rafale, but if they aren't really possible for us (especially the latter due to some hidden costs etc), I don't really mind if we just scrap those and get F-16V, as long as these Vipers come with such weapons.

 

[Chestnut]

What kind of weapons other than Sidewinder and AMRAAM that they'll likely offer as a package? Does it also depends on what the customer wants?

Yeah, as long as it doesn't threaten US geopolitical interests. And seeing as our interests align for the foreseeable future, I don't see why we shouldn't take advantage of it. Most people are more concerned over things that MIGHT happen after China ceases being a threat instead of China being the threat currently at hand.

And if the US won't supply you something, you can always just look to Europe and pay for the integration costs. Look at what SK did with the Taurus KEDP for example, the US refused to supply SK with the AGM-158 JASSM, so they went to Taurus Sytems and bought their missile for their fleet of F-15K's. People tend to not realize that the US doesn't really mind (bar the usual public statement from the US State Department) what you do with the equipment short of armed genocide or active war-mongering.

 

[Madokafc]

For the armament side there is nothing to worry when you purchased US Made fighter, even when the US is reluctant to offer you some of the most advance munition in their Arsenal.

why not looking at Turkey, they had SOM , they had small diameter bombs, they got various guidance bomb kit, they had bunker penetrator bombs, they are certified to do so and fit enough for our F16.

Then again Turkey had plethora of research and development of munition to be used for F16, there is also South Korean which can offer various solution.

There is also Israel solution capable to be fired from F-16 and F15 platform even the old model ones. And they are certainly very battle proven

Theoritically even the Japanese might become the future supplier of advance munition of F-16 and Type F15 in near future. If you are looking for the most advanced air launched AShM can be fitted to F 16 type aircraft, then Japan is the one.

With so many solution out there, why nitty worry much

 

[Madokafc]

Btw i am always prefered if Indonesia can develop and built her own munition for fighter Aircraft. But with the meagre number of Fighter Indonesia had today, the economy scale is still wayyyy too small. But there is also pre eliminary work need to be started to face the further expansion of Air Force assets, and need for munition accompany it.

Short range Missiles like Phyton, Sidewinder or Iris T is should be the first step

And the short range ground attack Missiles like Maverick would do

 

[FPXAllen]

And if the US won't supply you something, you can always just look to Europe and pay for the integration costs.

Well then, this could also be translated as "If the US refused to offer us those weapons and we have to buy ones with similar capabilities from Europe, that will cost us more for integrating them into F-16V, why not just buy fighter from an European country which have those weapons already integrated in the first place?"

Theoritically even the Japanese might become the future supplier of advance munition of F-16 and Type F15 in near future. If you are looking for the most advanced air launched AShM can be fitted to F 16 type aircraft, then Japan is the one.

Ah yes. Their newest ASM-3 AShM developed for their F-2. While there are some indications that Japan will be more proactive in the defense market in the near future and that we'll probably get some more offers from them after Mogami, but it's still far from certain at the moment. Or so, as far as I know it.

Turkey's and Israel's solutions are also worth considering. I don't know much about South Korean's stuffs to comment, though.

But still, the point is the same. Why must we have to choose third party (country) options if there's another who's willing to provide a better deal right out the bat?

With so many solution out there, why nitty worry much

I'm not worried about the possibility that we'll have to cancel Rafale or F-15EX, per se. You can say that although I have certain interests in the latter due to my job as a deftech journalist, but I'm pretty much agnostic when it comes to what fighter that TNI-AU should procure next. Be it F-15EX, F-16V, Rafale, etc. If it really what our air force truly needs, then so be it.

May the one who can and willing to provide a better deal for TNI-AU and our local indhan emerge victorious.

 

[Madokafc]

Procurement process of Bell 505 Ranger had goes further after passing certification phase

 

[FoodSoldier]

If this is true, those 'oknums' in MoF and all other state institutions deserve to be shot, hanged, shot, and hanged again.

For God's sake, they're not 'small fishes' or low ranked state employees whose monthly take home pays are only less than 5 million IDR. I don't know all the details, but at the very least they make more than 20 million a month with all the "tunjangan" and whatnots, and yet, they still think that they deserve a cut from things like this.

Rafale and F 15 EX havent been approved by Minister of Planning, how come Minister of Finance has contribution on that ?

First being approved by Minister of planning (Blue book) then it will be screened further by MoF and put on Green Book. Later acquisition budget approved by MoF will be the last screening.

What comes from Blue Book will also not necessary be approved entirely by MoF, just like MRCA acqusition being approved by Minister of Planning is 1.6 billion USD, then it get slashed into 1.1 billion USD.

For 2022 acquisition budget, it is not enough to finance all 5.8 billion USD approved foreign loan (by MoF), as it needs around 12 trillion IDR in the form of RMP, while the budget for foreign equipment is only 9 trillion IDR while 3 trillion IDR is for local defense industry acquisition. So some foreign defense equipment acquisition will be delayed into 2023

__________________

Talking about your accusation on MoF office

Nope, I believe MoF office is much cleaner than MoD office. If you put 15 % DP then the interest rate will be smaller than if you dont put any DP at all, that is the reason why RMP should exist, in order to pay less on the interest

I’m not only talking about Rafale dan F15 EX, but the entire modernization program that is currently in the pipeline. The RMP disagreement between MoD and MoF is happening and will prevent the realization of bulk modernization because MoF simply don’t have 15% cash as RMP. Why MoF insisted to put money they don’t have as requirement? If MoF can’t even provide the 15% RMP to MoD it will be ridiculuous to make it as an obligation, whereas you actually don’t need it. Or MoF just want to make life difficult for MoD?

RMP will lower the interest payment? Where do you think the 15% will be coming from? Govt bonds market! It will be coming from utangan too, with higher interest rates.

MoF is much cleaner than MoD? Cleaner doesn’t mean clean right?

 

[Indos]

I’m not only talking about Rafale dan F15 EX, but the entire modernization program that is currently in the pipeline. The RMP disagreement between MoD and MoF is happening and will prevent the realization of bulk modernization because MoF simply don’t have 15% cash as RMP. Why MoF insisted to put money they don’t have as requirement? If MoF can’t even provide the 15% RMP to MoD it will be ridiculuous to make it as an obligation, whereas you actually don’t need it. Or MoF just want to make life difficult for MoD?

RMP will lower the interest payment? Where do you think the 15% will be coming from? Govt bonds market! It will be coming from utangan too, with higher interest rates.

MoF is much cleaner than MoD? Cleaner doesn’t mean clean right?

15 % RMP will come from MoD own budget, including the yearly payment ( where interest component will be included) that will be paid in the following years. This is why all the modernization plan will still be related to how much government is willing to disburse money for MoD. For 2022, MoD budget has already become the largest one among other ministerial budget.

We will see how much MoD budget in 2023 to see whether the 20 billion USD acquisition plan (Foreign Loan+ Domestic Loan) approved by Minister of Planning will be realized. As I have stated in PDF at KFX/IFX thread some months ago, foreign loan back acquisition program I expect will not exceed 15 billion USD until its final year in 2024. We can see it will be 5.8 billion USD ( 2021+2022) where 2022 it is around 4.4 billion USD.

2022-2023 economic growth will still likely be around 5 % as World Bank have predicted, but WB is quite optimist on Indonesia economy in the long run as structural reformation has been made (Omnibus Law). WB estimation is that we could possibly reach economic growth even until 8 % in the post 2021-2024 period. So I expect modernization will be much better during next administration, and it will likely be backed by much stronger local defense industry as well where we expect KF21/IFX program inshaAllah has reached mass production stage in 2026.

SMI is indeed very economic oriented person where she even will likely use foreign loan to pay our KF21/IFX financial obligation instead of making full payment on our KF21/IFX debt+2022 payment, it is even in the condition where our export and trade surplus keep breaking historic record and Rupiah is relatively much stronger than during 2018 where we started to renegotiate with SK due to weak Rupiah and 8 billion USD trade deficit.

 

[Parry Brima]

US fighter purchases ALWAYS includes weaponry. The US sells them as packages, very rarely do they sell them as just the airframes.

We were specifically talking about the canteen guard assumption that 24 F-15EX will cost us $3.3 bil ($137.5 mil each).

Let's compare it with the DSCA for combat ready F-16V Viper for the Philippines (link below).

12 combat ready F-16V Viper (including AMRAAM, bombs, AESA & engine spares, etc) will cost $2.43 bil, which means $202.5 mil per jet.

Anyway, 24 AMRAAM would cost around $10 mil. 15 F100-PW-229 engines spare would cost around $53.5 mil. 15 AESA radar spare would cost $15 mil. 6 MK-82 bombs is cheap.

Bottom line is that the reduction from $2.43 bil won't be that much either.

The Philippines – F-16 Block 70/72 Aircraft | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

 

[FoodSoldier]

15 % RMP will come from MoD own budget, including the yearly payment ( where interest component will be included) that will be paid in the following years. This is why all the modernization plan will still be related to how much government is willing to disburse money for MoD. For 2022, MoD budget has already become the largest one among other ministerial budget.

We will see how much MoD budget in 2023 to see whether the 20 billion USD acquisition plan (Foreign Loan+ Domestic Loan) approved by Minister of Planning will be realized. As I have stated in PDF at KFX/IFX thread some months ago, foreign loan back acquisition program I expect will not exceed 15 billion USD until its final year in 2024. We can see it will be 5.8 billion USD ( 2021+2022) where 2022 it is around 4.4 billion USD.

You dont answer the question why MoF insisted to put 15% RMP while the budget is tight and the lender doesn’t require any down payment (0%).

Even bothering is the fact that the RMP will be coming from MoD own budget. Why MoF wants to make MoD life miserable?

It’s a simple scheme. MoD wants to buy everything upfront in bulk, and pay the cicilan every year around Rp30 Triliun (from their already allocated budget for procurement) for the next 15-20 years. MoD is able to secure zero down payment commitment with the lenders (who offer bery low interest rates and longer payment period), so the procurement can go ahead as soon as possible. But suddenly MoF insisted to put 15% RMP as an obligation upfront (which is they don’t have the money anyway).

logic?

 

[Parry Brima]

This is what France does, they CLAIM it's 0% DP so as to underbid their competitors, but after winning the contract they start making up extra costs along the way to increase profits. Here's an article detailing an example of the French at play.

The hidden cost of the Attack-class submarine cancellation | The Strategist

The abrupt announcement last week by the Australian government that it was scrapping its plans to build a fleet of diesel-electric submarines in favour of nuclear-powered boats will have a ripple effect throughout the defence ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

France has a national champions industrial policy - it definitely prioritizes their firms and extracting as much $ for the country as possible. So this approach does ensure they get as much domestic work as possible. It's highly likely the reason the F-16 was chosen over the Mirage 2000 in the 80's is because the Soeharto Administration's finance ministry did a full audit and cost evaluation of the French bid, much like what the Australians had just done.

I think you share the wrong article, no?

The article actually said that the Australian local industry content will be decreased by the cancellation. Attack-class submarine offered by Naval Group had 60% local content, while the new Aukus sub would only have 40%.

It also said the fact that there'll be 8 (Aukus) instead of 12 (Attack-class) new submarines will further reduces the market by another 30%

Anyway, you can't compare Rafale deal to the Attack-class submarine deal. Australia demands the new subs to be built locally in Adelaide with huge local industry content.

We don't demand that. Even our offset won't be much considering our limited local fighter supporting industry. That's why there's valid argument that we're trying to get the indirect offset instead (palm oil, etc).

 

[Indos]

You dont answer the question why MoF insisted to put 15% RMP while the budget is tight and the lender doesn’t require any down payment (0%).

Even bothering is the fact that the RMP will be coming from MoD own budget. Why MoF wants to make MoD life miserable?

It’s a simple scheme. MoD wants to buy everything upfront in bulk, and pay the cicilan every year around Rp30 Triliun (from their already allocated budget for procurement) for the next 15-20 years. MoD is able to secure zero down payment commitment with the lenders (who offer bery low interest rates and longer payment period), so the procurement can go ahead as soon as possible. But suddenly MoF insisted to put 15% RMP as an obligation upfront (which is they don’t have the money anyway).

logic?

15 % RMP is a law, you cannot say it as suddenly implemented to block MoD program. It was made in 2018 if I am not mistaken. That was made as economic team see it in the economic point of view, they want to be prudent in disbursing money and approving any loan proposal. They also want to keep debt to GDP ratio at lower rate then their peer countries with the same rating whether Fitch Rating or others to keep the financing from bond market get reasonable interest rate and not too expensive.

Talking about 15-20 years foreign loan payment period with much lower interest rate, it is just words by MoD office without any prove.

Those in MoF also has high caliber people who understand about defense, but usually they are very pro local defense industry point of view

 

[FoodSoldier]

15 % RMP is a law, you cannot say it as suddenly implemented to block MoD program. It was made in 2018 if I am not mistaken. That was made as economic team see it in the economic point of view, they want to be prudent in disbursing money and approving any loan proposal. They also want to keep debt to GDP ratio at lower rate then their peer countries with the same rating whether Fitch Rating or others to keep the financing from bond market get reasonable interest rate and not too expensive.

Talking about 15-20 years foreign loan payment period with much lower interest rate, it is just words by MoD office without any prove.

Those in MoF also has high caliber people who understand about defense, but usually they are very pro local defense industry point of view

MoF broke law so many times and getaway with it. Do you know how they make up budget shortage during pandemic since tax collection is low? By breaking the law! Getting loan trough ‘creative’ law bending mechanism.

and you still talking about prudent fiscal policy?

RMP can be written off if deemed necessary by the government. In this case, all the related ministries, DPR and the president itself has agreed to MoD scheme. The only ministry that doesn’t agree (yet) is MoF.

About the interest rates, how can you beat G2G loan interest rates with market (B2G) rates? MoD will mostly use G2G loan, whereas MoF always seek loan from the market (commercial). That will be a huge rate differences. And please enlighten us here at defencehub, what is the average interest rates that MoF has been secured from commercial market in the last 7 years of Jokowi’s admin? It’s 10,4% for God sake! Are u kidding me?

Rata-rata bunga utang pemerintah Indonesia 10,4%

Rata-rata Bunga Utang RI 10,44% per Tahun

Abtrindo Bond index yang mewakili indeks surat utang negara telah meningkat 170,25% selama 10 tahun atau return rata-rata sebesar 10,44% per tahun.

finance.detik.com

 

[Indos]

MoF broke law so many times and getaway with it. Do you know how they make up budget shortage during pandemic since tax collection is low? By breaking the law! Getting loan trough ‘creative’ law bending mechanism.

Rata-rata Bunga Utang RI 10,44% per Tahun

Abtrindo Bond index yang mewakili indeks surat utang negara telah meningkat 170,25% selama 10 tahun atau return rata-rata sebesar 10,44% per tahun.

finance.detik.com

Economic team is very strong in Jokowi administration. This is the fact that every one has already understood. We will see whether Prabowo second effort to get both Rafale and F 15 EX program inserted into Blue Book will succeed or not. First he needs to pass Minister of Planning, then Minister of Finance.

Any way, that 4.4 billion USD foreign loan back program that is approved in 2022 is already huge improvement if we compare to first Jokowi administration.

Talking about that interest rate, then we will know that it is the situation, it is why I said previously they hope the interest will not be too expensive so they need to pay attention on debt to GDP ratio and because of that it will not be easy to propose any foreign loan back program, particularly the ones that get minimal effect on our economy and local industry.

They need to increase the interest into that rate that you posted because it is the rate that the market is willing to take. During 2020-2022 where government needs to get many loan to stimulus the economy and for health and social welfare program due to pandemic situation, they need to have our Central Bank to absorb their bond (SUN), not entirely, but some. Look like Central Bank (BI) will print the money to do that action, but alhamduliLLAH our inflation is still very low despite that action.

 

[Nilgiri]

Btw i am always prefered if Indonesia can develop and built her own munition for fighter Aircraft. But with the meagre number of Fighter Indonesia had today, the economy scale is still wayyyy too small. But there is also pre eliminary work need to be started to face the further expansion of Air Force assets, and need for munition accompany it.

Short range Missiles like Phyton, Sidewinder or Iris T is should be the first step

And the short range ground attack Missiles like Maverick would do

Yes Indonesia's economy of scale development should be : navy, navy, navy in about that order.

 

[Madokafc]

Economic team is very strong in Jokowi administration. This is the fact that every one has already understood. We will see whether Prabowo second effort to get both Rafale and F 15 EX program inserted into Blue Book will succeed or not. First he needs to pass Minister of Planning, then Minister of Finance.

Any way, that 4.4 billion USD foreign loan back program that is approved in 2022 is already huge improvement if we compare to first Jokowi administration.

Talking about that interest rate, then we will know that it is the situation, it is why I said previously they hope the interest will not be too expensive so they need to pay attention on debt to GDP ratio and because of that it will not be easy to propose any foreign loan back program, particularly the ones that get minimal effect on our economy and local industry.

They need to increase the interest into that rate that you posted because it is the rate that the market is willing to take. During 2020-2022 where government needs to get many loan to stimulus the economy and for health and social welfare program due to pandemic situation, they need to have our Central Bank to absorb their bond (SUN), not entirely, but some. Look like Central Bank (BI) will print the money to do that action, but alhamduliLLAH our inflation is still very low despite that action.

Err, ah forget it

Yes Indonesia's economy of scale development should be : navy, navy, navy in about that order.

This should be along with the Air Force. Air and Sea domain should be priority

 

[Nilgiri]

This should be along with the Air Force. Air and Sea domain should be priority

There is lot that you can double dip in weapons platform ecosystem be it missiles, sensors, and radars into AF anyway....by focusing on growing the biggest (use) ecosystem that is navy (that I see for Indonesia critical defence strategy up to 2050).

Indonesia should also consider ramping up naval aviation big time.

It is a maritime state....it has to really go big here.

 

[Umigami]

Well then, this could also be translated as "If the US refused to offer us those weapons and we have to buy ones with similar capabilities from Europe, that will cost us more for integrating them into F-16V, why not just buy fighter from an European country which have those weapons already integrated in the first place?"

I think you can just put it on F16 without "ribet" if the original country use it for F16 too

 

[Madokafc]

Perpres no 85 tahun 2021, there is budget for five year to build up facilities in Natuna